the solar future de - karl kuhlman "can solar pv compete with grid energy in germany by...
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Dr. Karl Kuhlmann; CEO Solarstrom AGTRANSCRIPT
S.A.G. Solarstrom AG
Dr Karl Kuhlmann
CEO
June 8, 2010
Munich
1. Facts and Data of the S.A.G. Solarstrom Group
2. The Photovoltaics Market in Germany
3. The Costs of Photovoltaics for the German Economy
4. The Future of the Photovoltaics Market in Germany
5. Future Strategy of the S.A.G. Solarstrom Group
Agenda
2
Ground-mounted system Location: Brindisi, Apulia, Italy
Performance: 9.7 MWp Year of grid connection: 2010 3
1. Facts and Data of the S.A.G. Solarstrom Group
© S.A.G.
Experience and strength
Unique value chain
Key figures
S.A.G. Solarstrom AG: industry pioneers and international specialists in PV
Founded in: 1998, around 160 employees, ten locations in Germany and Europe
Cover the entire value-added chain and are thus uniquely positioned
Extensive experience:
Based on more than 2,700 installed systems and 70 own PV systems with a total output of
11.8 MWp
meteocontrol GmbH:
Worldwide monitoring of around 12,500 PV systems in total over 1.4 GWp
Experience in projects with an investment of over €5 billion
1.1 Covering the entire value chain: A major advantage for S.A.G. customers
4
The S.A.G. Group is uniquely positioned in photovoltaics
€190 - €210 million
5
* 2006 corrected in line with IFRS
Growth has been sustainably profitable since 2007
Sales (in million €) EBIT (in million €)
15
20
25
100
200
250
150
50
0
1.2 Group key figures: Sales and EBIT
€8 - €11 million
2005 2006* 2010e20092007 2008
Sales
EBIT
10
5
0
BBV started
as main
shareholder
with approx.
10 % share
6
© S.A.G.
Rooftop system Location: Rain am Lech, Germany
Performance: 4.6 MWp Year of grid connection: 2009
2. The Photovoltaics Market in Germany
The Renewable Energy Act as support for photovoltaics
Power production from renewables increased considerably
Feed-in tariff boosted photovoltaic business in Germany
Germany most important photovoltaic market
7
The EEG is supporting renewable energies efficiently
2.1 The Renewable Energy Act and its goals
Full name: Act on Granting Priority to Renewable Energy Sources (EEG)
Goals according to §1 of the EEG:
To facilitate a sustainable development of energy supply
To reduce the economic costs (in particular) by incorporating external factors
(climate change, etc.)
To further develop and promote technologies for renewable energies
To distribute the costs fairly to all market participants by means of allocation
The legal foundation of the Act and the allocation are legally protected by the European
Court of Justice
The EEG has been “exported” to 47 countries to date
(such as China, France, Spain, Portugal, Brazil and the Czech Republic)
8
The EEG is a success story that started 20 years ago
2.2 Development of renewable energies in Germany up to 2009
1991:
Introduction of forerunner
to EEG
2000:
Introduction of
the EEG
2004:
1st amendment
of EEG
Sources: Agency for Renewable Energies, March 2010 and German Federal Association for Energy and Water, February 2010
2009:
2nd amendment
of EEG
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Power production (in TWh)
Photovoltaics
6.6 %
Hydraulic power
20.3 %
Biomass
32.7 %
Wind energy
40.4 %
Gross power generation in 2009: 597 TWh
Portion provided by renewable energies: 15 %
2.3 Development of feed-in tariff from 2002 to 2010
9
Installed PV capacity grew exponentially despite decreasing FIT
Sources: EEG and German Telecommunications Network Agency
0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Ground-
mounted
PV-systems:
Rooftops
Feed-in tariff (in €Cent/kWh)
MWp installed: 290 432 1,053 1,961 2,773 4,017 5,950 9,800 14,300e
1.7.2010
60
40
30
20
10
0
50
Veto of Federal
Assembly on
04/06/2010
Final decision in
07/2010
?
?
2.4 Feed-in tariff for the different PV systems in €cent/kWh
10
Germany will see a massive cut in July 2010
2009 January 1, 2010 July 1, 2010
Rooftop systems
up to 30 kWp
own consumption (up to 29.9 kWp)
43.01
25.01
39.14
22.76
32.88
16.48/20.88*
from 30 kWp
own consumption (30 – 99.9 kWp)
40.91
-
37.23
-
31.27
14.87/19.27*
from 100 kWp
own consumption (100 – 500 kWp)
39.58
-
35.23
-
29.59
13.19/17.59*
from 1,000 kWp 33.00 29.37 24.67
Ground-mounted systems
Arable land 31.94 28.43 -
Conversion land 31.94 28.43 25.3
Other land 31.94 28.43 24.17
Source: EEG*Up to 30 % own consumption or more than 30 % own consumption
?Veto of Federal Assembly on June 4th, 2010
2.5 Size distribution of installed photovoltaic systems in Germany in 2009
11
The German photovoltaics market is a rooftop installation market
Number of installations
Performance category (in kWp)
Sources: German Telecommunications Network Agency
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
0…30 30...100 100…500 500…1000 >1.000
1.666 MWp
869 MWp
445 MWp 192 MWp 637 MWp
New installations in 2009:
3,809 MWp
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
>1,000
0
2.6 Global photovoltaic power installed by end of 2009
12
Germany is the largest photovoltaics market worldwide to date
Power (in GWp)
Source: EPIA, Global Market Outlook for photovoltaics until 2014
9.8
3.4
1.2 0.30.5 0.6 15.8
1.7
3.1 20.6
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
Germany Spain Italy France Czech Republic
Rest of EU
EU Total USA Rest of world
Total
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source. EPIA, Global market outlook for photovoltaics up to 2014
13
© S.A.G.
Ground-mounted system Location: Stribro, Pilsen, Czech Republic
Performance: 13.6 MWp Year of grid connection: 2009
3. The Costs of Photovoltaics for the German Economy
Electricity tariffs for private consumers continue to rise
FIT allocation less than 5 % of electricity tariff
Decreasing FIT keeps cost for EEG within limits
Economic costs of photovoltaics are low
Photovoltaics are foreseeable an alternative
Source: BDEW (German Federal Association for Energy and Water)
Price (in €cent/kWh)
14
3.1 The electricity tariff trend in Germany (private consumers)
The electricity tariff for private consumers will continue to rise
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e ee e
15
5 %
3 %3 %
1 %
29 %
26 %
16 %
9 %
8 %
Förderung EE durch das EEG¹
Messung
Vertrieb
KWK-Umlage²
Erzeugung
Netzentgelt
Mehrwertsteuer
Stromsteuer
Konzessionsabgabe³
3.2 Composition of electricity tariff (private consumers) in Germany 2009
The support for renewable energies has a share of less than 5 % of the electricity tariff
Source: Agency for Renewable Energies, 2009
¹ Renewable Energy Act
² Act on Combined Heat and Power Generation
³ Fee that a public utility company has to pay to a local authority for the use of the lines and cables located in
public places
Measurement
Sales
Sales tax
Support of renewable energies
by EEG1
KWK allocation 2
Generation
Network charges
Electricity tax
License fee3
3.3 Feed-in tariff paid for solar electricity from 2002 to 2009
16
Total economic cost of the PV success story less than 7 billion € up to 2009
Sources: EEG and own calculations
Support for solar electricity
(in billion €)
0.01 0.05 0.15
0.44
0.81
1.18
1.67
2.48 6.79
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Solar electricity Conventional electricityprivate households
European Energy Exchange trade prices
3.4 Economic costs of power production have to be taken into account
17
Today, photovoltaic electricity is less expensive than coal and nuclear power
Total electricity costs in 2009
(in €cent/kWh)
Sources: German Federal Association for Energy and Water, German Federal
Environmental Agency and Greenpeace as well as own calculations
Economic costs
Economic costs for coal
and nuclear power:
0.20 €/kWh & around
100 billion EUR per year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 0,30 0,35 0,40 0,45
18
Grid parity in Germany can be achieved at system prices between 3,200 and 2,500 EUR
Source: S.A.G. Solarstrom AG
850 kWh/kWp
Electricity tariff for private consumers (in €/kWh)
Specific yield: 1,100 kWh/kWp
3.5 Grid-parity is determined by radiation intensity and manufacturing costs
Manufacturing costs/kWp (in thousand €)
0,23 € / kWh
0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45
19
4. The Future of the Photovoltaics Market in Germany
© S.A.G.
Renewable energy’s share continues to increase
Germany can remain the most significant PV market
System prices need to decline in order to adapt to the market
Cost for FIT payments will decrease
Rooftop system Location: Rain am Lech, Germany
Performance: 4.6 MWp Year of grid connection: 2009
4.1 Share of renewable energies in energy generation up to 2020
20
In 2020, renewable energies will provide around 50 % of the total power consumption
Source: Agency for Renewable Energies, March 2010
14.4 %
16.2 %
53.9 %
8.9 %
6.6 %
Photovoltaics
Biomass
Wind energy
Hydraulic power
Geothermal energy
Gross power
production renewable
energies:
278 TWh
4.2 Forecast photovoltaic power installed by 2013
21
According to estimates, Germany will remain the strongest PV market worldwide
Power (in GWp)
Sources: own assumptions, EPIA, Photon Consulting, LBBW and EuPD
23.3
5.9
7.84.9
2.5 5.4 49.8
14.6
19.9 84.3
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2009: 9.8 GWp
20
40
60
80
90
70
50
30
10
0
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e
4.3 Ratio of ground-mounted systems to rooftop systems in Germany
22
Source: own calculations
Ground-mounted systems
Rooftop systems
Installed capacity
(in %)
S.A.G. foresee a market-share of ground-mounted systems of less than 3 %
23
4.4 System prices have to decrease in line with FIT tariffs
Still a long way from reaching system prices which enable profitability
Source: own calculations
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010e 2011e 2012e
Manufacturing costs (in %)
crystalline modules
thin-film modules
Precondition:
Reasonable
profitability for
investors and
system integrators
2012e:
Modules < 1,000 € / kWp
< 800 € / kWp
Inverters < 160 € / kWp
< 160 € / kWp
4.5 Forecast feed-in tariff paid for solar electricity (2010 to 2020)
24
Sources: EEG, Federal Government and own calculations
Support for solar electricity (in billion €)
Decreasing FIT will flatten cost growth curve for new installations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
Economic costs of conventional energy production:
around 100 billion € per year
Promotion for PV:
57 billion € within 20 years
25
Politicians should reconsider planned reduction, suppliers should adapt pricing policy
4.6 Conclusions
IRRs of rooftop systems will be reduced significantly unless system costs will decline
massively and/or changes to EEG are only moderate
Ground-mounted systems on arable land in Germany are becoming economically
unattractive. IRRs for systems on other land will be considerably reduced
Only limited capacities for conversion land, “other” land (e.g. parallel to the German Autobahn
or railway tracks)
Germany can remain one of the leading photovoltaic markets depending on system cost +
FIT development
Grid-parity can be achieved in the coming 5 years, depending on system cost development
and the cost of private consumer electricity tariff
In our opinion, ground-mounted systems will decline to less than 3% of the market (installed
capacity
26
5. Future Strategy of the S.A.G. Solarstrom Group
The S.A.G. Solarstrom Group is very well equipped for a changing market environment
International footprint to allocate individual market risks
Unique value chain offers opportunities in mature markets such as Germany:
Full service value chain over the complete lifetime of PV systems guarantees a high
profitability
Germany is a rooftop market – one of S.A.G.‟s strengths in project planning and development
Strong exclusive sales partner system enables easier market access and market coverage
Contact
Public Relations / Investor Relations
S.A.G. Solarstrom AG
Sasbacher Straße 5
79111 Freiburg i. Br.
Germany
Telephone: +49 761 4770 - 311
Fax: +49 761 4770 - 44 142
[email protected] / [email protected]
27
This presentation contains statements concerning future developments (or “forward-looking statements“). They are based on current expectations and
forecasts of future events as made by the management body of S.A.G. Solarstrom AG, as well as on certain assumptions – many of which are beyond
the influence of said management body. These statements thus involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause the company„s actual results
to deviate significantly from those the statements indicate. The assumptions that could lead to such deviations due to unforeseeable developments
include, but are not limited to: demand for our products and services; the competitive environment; the development, propagation, and technical
performance of photovoltaic technology, as well as the price thereof; changes in legislation, price, and the timely availability of the products and advance
financing required; our ability to expand existing sales and marketing agreements and conclude new such agreements; our ability to secure further
financing; and the availability of sufficiently qualified technical personnel.
© S.A.G. Solarstrom AG. This presentation and the graphics it contains are – when no source is cited – protected by copyright. Any unauthorized
reproduction, whether electronically or by some other means, is forbidden. Both commercial and non-commercial use is subject to the prior written
consent of S.A.G. Solarstrom AG. All rights reserved.