the smartphone disruption

Slide title

70 pt

CAPITALS

Slide subtitle

minimum 30 pt

Björn Ekelund

THE SMARTPHONE DISRUPTION

Slide title

44 pt

Text and bullet level 1

minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt

Characters for Embedded font: !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~¡¢£¤¥¦§¨©ª«¬®¯°±²³´¶·¸¹º»¼½ÀÁÂÃÄÅÆÇÈËÌÍÎÏÐÑÒÓÔÕÖ×ØÙÚÛÜÝÞßàáâãäåæçèéêëìíîïðñòóôõö÷øùúûüýþÿĀāĂăąĆćĊċČĎďĐđĒĖėĘęĚěĞğĠġĢģĪīĮįİıĶķĹĺĻļĽľŁłŃńŅņŇňŌŐőŒœŔŕŖŗŘřŚśŞşŠšŢţŤťŪūŮůŰűŲųŴŵŶŷŸŹźŻżŽžƒȘșˆˇ˘˙˚˛˜˝ẀẁẃẄẅỲỳ–—‘’‚“”„†‡•…‰‹›⁄€™ĀĀĂĂĄĄĆĆĊĊČČĎĎĐĐĒĒĖĖĘĘĚĚĞĞĠĠĢĢĪĪĮĮİĶĶĹĹĻĻĽĽŃŃŅŅŇŇŌŌŐŐŔŔŖŖŘŘŚŚŞŞŢŢŤŤŪŪŮŮŰŰŲŲŴŴŶŶŹŹŻŻȘș−≤≥fifl ΆΈΉΊΌΎΏΐΑΒΓΕΖΗΘΙΚΛΜΝΞΟΠΡΣΤΥΦΧΨΪΫΆΈΉΊΰαβγδεζηθικλνξορςΣΤΥΦΧΨΩΪΫΌΎΏ ЁЂЃЄЅІЇЈЉЊЋЌЎЏАБВГДЕЖЗИЙКЛМНОПРСТУФХЦЧШЩЪЫЬЭЮЯАБВГДЕЖЗИЙКЛМНОПРСТУФХЦЧШЩЪЫЬЭЮЯЁЂЃЄЅІЇЈЉЊЋЌЎЏѢѢѲѲѴѴҐҐәǽẀẁẂẃẄẅỲỳ№

Do not add objects or

text in the footer area

Björn Ekelund | Public | © Ericsson AB 2014 | 2014-11-12 |

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





Initially lower performance than “traditional”

solutions but offers OTHER values

Grows in OTHER markets while improving in

“traditional” performance

Eventually displaces the “traditional” solutions

DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





1889-2014 – 125 YEARS

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





1914-2014 – 100 YEARS

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





1994-2014 – 20 YEARS

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





MACRO DISRUPTION

micro disruption

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





“MACRO” DISRUPTION

› The steam engine

› The alphabet

› Paper

› Penicillin

› The telephone

› Radio

› Electricity

MAJOR IMPACT ON LIFE AND SOCIETY

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





› Mobile Phones

– 2G, 3G, 4G

– Solid state disks

– Open source software

– Surface acoustic wave filters

– Envelope tracking

– …

› Cars

– Non asbestos break pads

– Electronic fuel injection

– Digital image processing

– Turbocharging

– …

“micro” disruption

MAJOR IMPACT ON A BUSINESS OR INDUSTRY

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





COMPLEX PRODUCT VALUE CHAIN

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





“DOMINANT DESIGN”

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





Sometimes a mystery

Always obvious in hindsight

Creative destruction

Drama

CAUSE AND EFFECT

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





PREDICTING DISRUPTION?

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





“WEAK SIGNALS”

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





“TRIGGERS”

New

ecosystems

New business

models

New

technology New

economics

Social

change

Policy

“Architecture”

Slide title

70 pt

CAPITALS

Slide subtitle

minimum 30 pt

CASE: THE MOBILE PHONE

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





› New business models

– Asymmetric business models

– Open source software

– App ecosystem

– Non-physical content products

› Technology advances

– Touch screen technology

– Processor technology

– User interface design

A DRAMA INVOLVING:

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





1990’S VALUE CHAIN

Nokia

Brand

Software

OS

Device

integration

Radio

modem

Silicon

Brand

Software

OS

Device

integration

Radio

modem

Silicon

Brand

Software

OS

Device

integration

Radio

modem

Silicon

Qualcomm

Brand

Software

OS

Device

integration

Radio

modem

Silicon

Ericsson Siemens

Brand

Software

OS

Device

integration

Radio

modem

Silicon

Motorola

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





NO SOFTWARE LAST FOREVER

Source: Strategy Analytics December 2012

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





2008: 60% OF THE MARKET

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





NOT A WEAK SIGNAL

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Co

re

Wir

ele

ss S

C T

AM

M$

ULC Entry Smartphone Connected Devices Grey Market

Co

re W

ire

les

s S

C T

AM

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Co

re W

ire

less

SC

TA

M M

$

ULC Entry Smartphone Connected Devices Grey Market

2010 2015 CAGR

291M 718M 20%

Market estimate 2011

Source: Strategy Analytics, April 2011

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





Property Feature

phone

Smartphone

Coverage Great Poor

Battery life Great Poor

Small size Great Poor

Apps Poor Great

User interface Poor Great

Content Poor Great

CHRISTIANSEN’S DEFINITON

ARROGANT INCUMBENTS DID NOT SEE THE THREAT

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





TRIGGER

END USER APPEAL CUTS THROUGH ANY VALUE CHAIN

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





2009 ”Symbian is the future”

2009 HTC commits to Android

2010 Samsung commits to Android

Sony Ericsson commits to Android

2011 Nokia commits to Windows

Blackberry in freefall

THE DISRUPTION

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Januari 2009 Januari 2011

Android

iOS

Windows

BBOS

Symbian

Andra

DISRUPTION IN NUMBERS

http://www.symbian.org/


Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





CYCLIC DISRUPTION

90’s 10’s 20’s 00’s

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





To play in a market

with commercial ambitions

-

elsewhere

ASSYMETRIC BUSINESS MODELS

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





“CHRISTENSEN’S LAW OF CONSERVATION”

“When attractive profits disappear at one

stage in the value chain because a

product becomes modular and

commoditized, the opportunity to earn

attractive profits with proprietary

products will usually emerge at an

adjacent stage.” Professor Clayton Christensen

“The Innovator’s Solution”, 2003

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





REDISTRIBUTION OF VALUE

Silicon Chipset OS Software Device Service Apps

Silicon Chipset

OS Software

Device

Service Apps

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q2 2008 Q2 2010

70% Licensed OS 60% Free OS

Sm

art

phone O

S m

ark

et

share

Source: Gartner

MOBILE SOFTWARE BUSINESS DISRUPTION

http://www.microsoft.com/windowsmobile/en-us/default.mspx


http://images.google.se/imgres?imgurl=http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/business/consuminginterests/blog/apple-logo1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/business/consuminginterests/blog/holiday_shopping/&usg=__Feozm6d8X-cIWBIR6O9nASxNJIA=&h=480&w=397&sz=22&hl=sv&start=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=HhYIr-Oz_5sLkM:&tbnh=129&tbnw=107&prev=/images?q=apple+logo&hl=sv&rlz=1T4GGLL_svSE341SE342&sa=N&um=1

http://images.google.se/imgres?imgurl=http://www.techshout.com/images/blackberry-logo-may08.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.techshout.com/mobile-phones/2008/15/ibm-lotus-collaboration-software-now-available-for-blackberry-smartphones/&usg=__YCpSqxUdE2UVyPi1e0WRDRY6kZ0=&h=159&w=320&sz=19&hl=sv&start=16&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=sxni4T4kPihQ9M:&tbnh=59&tbnw=118&prev=/images?q=blackberry+logo&hl=sv&rlz=1T4GGLL_svSE341SE342&um=1

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





“Trolls”

“Product as a service”

“Trojans”

“Freemium”

ASYMMETRIC BUSINESS MODELS

Slide title

44 pt


minimum 24 pt

Bullets level 2-5

minimum 20 pt





› Regardless of size and success, no one is safe

› Disruption can be predicted but few have the guts to act

› End user appeal beats everything

› If management incentives is based on performance less

than 24 months out, an organization is typically not set to

handle a disruption

SUMMARY