the smart meter market in europe is booming
TRANSCRIPT
The Smart Meter Run – Europe Gears Up to Meet the
Roll Out Deadline
Neha Vikash, Research Associate
Energy and Power
July 2011
2
Highlights
• Introduction
• Technology and Product Overview
• Market Overview
• Industry Challenges
• Force Field Analysis of Drivers and Restraints
• European Smart Meter Market Forecast – A Snapshot
• Tier and Market Share Analysis
• Implementation Vs Regulation Matrix
• Summary
3
Introduction
Europe is a push market where smart meter and smart grid markets are legislation driven. There is region-wise
disparity due to the different regulatory challenges faced by each country, thus having a direct impact on
implementation.
The smart meter market is expected to boom owing to the recent impetus from renewable energy and smart grid
implementation. Smart meters are required for integration of renewable energy.
Europe is focussed on meeting the 20-20-20 targets which is a necessary driver for increase in renewable energy
and the third energy directive focus is towards 80 percent smart meter penetration in the residential sector by 2020.
The market is in the commercialisation stage and is expected to witness higher growth from 2012 throughout
Europe. Several pilot projects are ongoing with a focus towards massive deployments from 2012 to 2020
Competition among the market players is increasing and the future trend is a further increase in potential
competition. Chinese and other Asian companies are expected to enter the market in the short to medium term.
Key Findings
4
Introduction : Technology and Product Overview
Outage Detection
Other FeaturesTime of Usage
Smart meters are superior meters that identify the electricity consumption pattern in better detail as compared to a
conventional meter. They have embedded systems which has the ability to communicate information to the utility in
real time for monitoring and billing purposes.
Smart Meter
Two way Meters
5M6BD-14
Market Overview
State of the Market
Growth Maturity Decline
Ma
rke
t G
row
th T
ren
d
Introduction
France
Spain
UK
Germany
ROE
Denmark
Finland
Norway
Italy
Sweden
2010 2014 2017CountryEuropean Smart Meter Markets : Smart Metering Market Phase (Europe), 2010
Source: Frost & Sullivan
European Smart Meter Markets : Smart Metering Market Phase (Europe), 2010
Country Installed Base (in millions)Start of Large Scale
Rollout
Expected End Date of
Large Scale Roll Out
Denmark 1.4 2005 2013
Finland 1.2 2010 2014
France 0.3 2012 2016
Germany 0.3 2014 NA
Italy 33.5 2005 2011
Spain 0.4 2011 2018
Sweden 5.3 2006 2009
United Kingdom 0.08 2012 2020
European Smart Meter Markets : Country Status of Deployment (Europe), 2010
Source: Frost & Sullivan
6M6BD-14
Industry Challenges
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Unguaranteed Quality of
Meters
European
Smart Meter
Markets
1 2
European Smart Meter Markets : Industry Challenges (Europe), 2011-2017
Lack of Government
Subsidies and Grants
Risk of Information
SecurityReplacement of Existing Meters
Leading to Stranded Assets
7M6BD-14
Restra
ints
Re
stra
ints
Force Field Analysis of Drivers and Restraints
Driv
ers
Driv
ers
Denotes Long term Impact
Denotes Current Impact
Smart Meters for Effective
Integration of Renewable
Electricity
Smart Meters are Imperative for
Smart Grids and Leads to Efficient
Energy management in T&D space
Long and Capital Intensive Process Lack of Utilities’ Appropriate
Business Models to Invest in Smart
Metering that Slows Down Market
Adoption
Source: Frost & Sullivan
EU Directives and Legislations for the
Internal Electricity Market in all
Members States
European Smart Meter Markets : Market Drivers and Restraints Ranked in Order of Impact (Europe), 2011-2017
1 2 3
1 2
Lack of Standardization in
Communication Protocols
Leading to Problems of
Interoperability
3
8M6BD-14
European Smart Meter Markets – A Snapshot
1,926.68
550.70
400.00
900.00
1400.00
1900.00
2010 2017
Revenue
($ million)30.54
6.104.00
19.00
34.00
2010 2017
Units (million)
European Smart Meter Markets : Unit Projection (Europe), 2010 and 2017 European Smart Meter Markets : Revenue Projection (Europe), 2010 and 2017
Note: All figures are rounded;
the base year is 2010.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
200.43
43.90
20.00
50.00
80.00
110.00
140.00
170.00
200.00
230.00
2010 2017
Installed Base
(million)
63.09
93.14
55.00
70.00
85.00
100.00
2010 2017
Average Price ($)
European Smart Meter Markets : Installed Base Projection (Europe), 2010 and 2017European Smart Meter Markets : Price Projection (Europe), 2010 and 2017
Note: All figures are rounded;
the base year is 2010.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Note: All figures are rounded;
the base year is 2010.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Note: All figures are rounded;
the base year is 2010.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
9
Tier and Market Share Analysis
Tier 3 (1 % Market Share)
Xemtec, Secure Together, Kamstrup, Sagemcom etc.
Tier 2 (9 % Market Share)
Itron, Elster Metering, Iskraemeco
Tier 1 (90 % market share)
Echelon, Landis + Gyr
Source: Frost & Sullivan
European Smart Meter Markets : Tier Analysis by Installed Capacity
(Europe), 2010
10
Implementation Vs Regulation Matrix
Sweden
Italy
Finland
Netherlands
Spain
IrelandUnited
Kingdom
Portugal
Denmark
FranceNorway
Germany
Austria
Cyprus
Estonia
Poland
BelgiumHungary
Czech Republic
Latvia
Regulatory Driven &
Utility Driven
Regulation Driven
Utility Driven
Less Regulatory Driven
& Utility Driven
Deg
ree o
f Im
ple
men
tati
on
Degree of Regulatory Push
High
HighLowSource: Frost & Sullivan
European Smart Meter Markets : Country Implementation and Regulation Matrix (Europe), 2010
Malta
11M6BD-14
Smart Meter Roll-Out Implementation in Europe
Smart Meters
Already Installed
Until 2010
Smart Meters are
Being InstalledRoll Out Plan
is Decided
Roll Out
Plan is
Under
Discussion
There is no Roll
Out Planned
Denmark (50%)
Italy (90%)
Sweden (100 %)
Finland (44 %)
Malta (36.32 %)
Denmark (50%)
Italy (5%)
Netherlands (4%)
Finland (45%)
Malta (63.68 %)
Greece
Spain
Austria
Czech Republic
France
Germany
Great Britain
Ireland
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Luxembourg
Source: Frost & Sullivan
European Smart Meter Markets : The Process of Roll-out Project Implementation by Country (Europe), 2010
12
Summary of Key Findings
Sweden and Italy have almost completed their deployment according to the EU’s objectives. UK, France, Spain, Scandinavia are seen as
potentially developing markets.
Market Players are awaiting for the standardization mandate to be published to overcome the interoperability setbacks.
Several pilot projects are ongoing with a focus towards massive deployments from 2012 to 2020 to meet the EU deadline of having smart
meters installed in 80 percent of the households by 2020.
Frost & Sullivan estimates the installed base to be 200 million by 2017 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.2 percent between
2010 to 2017. The price is expected to fall gradually with increase in volume deployments, mass regional coverage, technological development
and equipment design.
The market is expected to enter the growth stage. Smart metering being imperative for smart grids will lead to developments at the grid system
level having completed large scale deployments in several countries across Europe. The trend in competition is increasing, and market
entrants see good investment opportunity in this evolving market.