The Security Risk of Refugees in Europe

Ivica Zvonko Miljak, Marko Šukilović, Eduard Štor, Axel Petri

Facts• Many people

• EU not ready (inertia, (not) co-ordination)

• Problems of acceptance and transfer –

border

• Policy

• Frontex

• Illegal crossings

• Documents

• Children

• Reactions residents

• Terrorists sleepers

Who is Who

• Refugees

• Asylum seekers

• Migrants

• Economic migration

• Criminals

• Terrorists

The Security Risk of Refugees in Europe

Marko Šukilović, CPP

Balkan’s 5/10 – good or bad?!

Geopolitical impacts on Serbia

Economy (“no reason to stay”)

Money making machine: weapons

• “40 pieces of firearms,6 kilograms of explosives and 11 hand grenades wereseized during 48hrs of regional police operation in Balkans, engaging 5.000police officers” (Interpol, April 17-19 2016.)

• The primary goal of this operation, like number of similar others, is toprevent weapons smuggling from the Balkans to Western EU countries, asthe “shopping list” contains all items for lethal terrorist attack

• Out of 1000 Balkan countries citizen (mainly from Bosnia, Kosovo, Albaniaand Macedonia) who went for Jihad to Iraq and Syria over the past coupleof years, approximately 300 returned back to the region and pose securityrisk as their motives for returning are not always and fully clear

Money making machine: Smuggling

• Europol estimated that 90% per cent of migrants entering the EU aremanaged by the smugglers and sometimes with the help of corrupt officialspaid to allow the trucks, ships and people to cross the borders

• According to international law enforcement agencies, the smugglingnetworks earn nearly six billion dollars annually, whereas the average costper person smuggled ranges from 3.200 do 6.500 dollars

Security Issues – terrorists

• One of the Paris gunmen (leaving 129+ dead)

• Entered Greece on October 3rd 2015.

• Entered Serbia on October 7th, requested asylum, but continued to Croatia/ Austria before his appeal was reviewed

• on Friday 13 November 2015. Gunmen and bombers attacked restaurants,the Bataclan theatre and the Stade de France national stadium

Transportation issues

• As hundreds of thousands of cargo trucks operate along the migrant routes,they are number one choice for a “free ride”, causing great damage tologistics companies

• Number of traffic accidents reported on Serbian roads, mainly involvinglorries and vans flipping with 30-50 migrants on board

• Drugs, weapons and human became cargo features

Community safety issues

• “Proven routes” with high success rate for transfer from Serbia to Austriacost 1.000 dollars and 2.000 dollars to Germany, but for those out of moneythere is another option on the “menu” – a guided 100-150 dollar trip toporous points of the 3 meter security fence on Serbian/Hungarian border…

• “35 migrants from Middle East were transported from Macedonian borderto Belgrade, but then became „prisoners“ for 5 days without food andaccess to clean water, heating and hygiene conditions - simply because theyrun out of money and refused to pay more than agreed”…

Neighbor Issues

• After separating its own policy on migrants from the official EU, Hungary built a3m high security fence along the border with Serbia, deployed multiple „in-depth“ measures including drones, ATVs, thermal imaging cameras, dogs andcombined military-police patrols and almost sealed the border, arrestingapproximately 1000 people within the first 12 hours of „new border policy“

• High number of violent incidents occured, including assaults on TV crews

• As a result, 90% of migrants today uses the Croatia route where few cases ofviolence occurred before Croatia and Serbia managed to agree unifiedapproach with EU

• Remark: Project GRIFFIN logo and slogan used only out of author’s pure desire that Serbia and other transition countries should initiate massive

security awareness and preparedness programs like GRIFFIN, as today there is NONE

Main concern of Serbia: “What if they are stuck & blocked?”

The Security Risk of Refugees in Europe

The Security Risk of Refugees in Croatia

Eduard Stor

This presentation is only representing personal opinions of the author

Beginning of Western Balkan route

Croatian government politics

Politics:

Let Migrants in Croatia

Help sick and powerless

Transfer them to Hungarian or Slovenia border

According to official data of Ministry of Interior of the start of the migrant crisis to March 4, 2016 entered Croatia 658,068 migrants, of which 558,724 in 2015. Almost all have left our country on its way to Western Europe, while in Croatia applied for asylum only 39 refugees.

Reception Center

Aarrival intensity

Sometimes it is almost than 10 000 people in a day

Food and cloth

Medical care

Registration

Transportation

Translator

In Croatia live 3,8 million people

People without documents

People with faked documents

Impossibility to check documents in country where people coming from

People who try to skip checking procedure

People who come in Country crossing green border

Identity check problems

Croatian financial data

Croatia spend for migrants:

22 million USD

From Eu get 10,4 milion USD

The European Union ConclusionsRestrictions on the admission of refugees and migrants.

Caused a domino effect on the "Balkan route„

The criteria are tightened Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia and Macedonia.

People who did not escape from the war-affected areas have already been set out in the EU in search of work, no longer pass across borders.

.

The Security Risk of Refugees in Europe

The German Discussion about increasing terrorist threats

Axel Petri – Lawyer, Security and Management Consultant*

* This presentation is only representing personal opinions of the author.

Summer 2015: Wir schaffen das!

We can do it! – What are the reasons behind?

Picture: Bundesregierung/Schacht https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/Content/DE/Fotoreihe/2015/2015-09-04-kanzlerin-im-bild/01.jpg

Germans affected themselves

14 Mio. Displaced Persons after WW II**0,3 Mio. Jewish People after 1933*

*Bundeszentrale für Politische Bildunghttps://www.bpb.de/geschichte/nationalsozialismus/gerettete-geschichten/177609/exillaender-juedischer-fluechtlinge-aus-dem-deutschen-reich

**http://digicoll.library.wisc.edu/cgi-bin/FRUS/FRUS-idx?type=turn&entity=FRUS.FRUS1945Berlinv01.p0881&isize=M http://www.deutschlanddokumente.de/, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=4110677

Germany has experience Refugees

Applications for Asylum in Germany*:• 1953-2015: 4,6 Mio., thereof

1953-1989: 0,9 Mio. 1990-2015: 3,7 Mio.

• Q1/2 2016: 0,4 Mio.

*Source: Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge (BAMF), Aktuelle Zahlen zu Asyl, June 2016

Welcome Culture August 2015 –flowers at stations and more

http://lebuzz.eurosport.co.uk/viral/refugees-welcome-inspiring-scenes-at-germanys-football-grounds-2675/

The Tradeoff: Limited Registration

• Vast majority arriving autumn 2015 in Bavaria

distribution within Germany necessary

not all of them registered by name and checked before continuing travel

prevent bottleneck at german borders

suspension of case-by-case review for some countries (including “Dublin-rules”)

• Uncertainty of registration

people waiting for asylum application

people not using official transportation

people with incomplete documents

people with faked documents

people without case-by-case review/interviews

July 2016: Registration completed

• Lessons learned

establishing of “Integrated Identitymanagement”- Since February 2016 all new arriving asylum seekers are

registered upon their first contact with german authorities

- Identity checked and data exchange between authorities

Backlogs of applications covered- All migrants are registered right now (fingerprint, picture, data)

- decision of 500.000 open asylum procedures until end of year

01/16: Restart of case-by-case-review includinginterviews for Syria, Irak, Afghanistan and Eritrea

• Remaining uncertainties

people not applying for asylum

people with incomplete documents

people with faked documents

Internal Security endangered?

• Paris 11/13/2015: attackers have been registered several times (as a kind of demonstration)

• Mob sex attacks and muggings on New Year's Eve 2015 in Cologne by refugee perpetrators

• Würzburg 07/18/2016: registered unaccompanied minor refugee attacking – due to lack of drivers licence - passengers of regional train with knife and ax (steered by IS/Daesh?)

• Ansbach 07/24/2016: Syrian perpetrator whose deportation to Bulgaria had been announced 11 days before conducts first IS-suicide-bombing in Germany (steered by IS/Daesh?)

• Rise of right-wing parties (international phenomenon)

• Rise of right wing terrorism

Europol: EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TE-SAT) 2016

Irregular migration“There is no concrete evidence to date that terrorist travelers systematically use the flow of refugees to enter Europe unnoticed. However, some incidents have been identified involving terrorists who have made use of migratory flows to enter the EU. In the investigations into the 13 November Paris attacks, it was found that two of the attackers had entered the EU through Greece as part of the large influx of refugees from Syria. A number of other suspected cases, including terrorist use of fraudulent travelling documents, have since been identified. A real and imminent danger, and one that will probably continue to exist for a long time, is the potential for elements of the (Sunni Muslim) Syrian refugee diaspora to become vulnerable to radicalization once in Europe, and to be specifically targeted by Islamist extremist recruiters.”

Political challenges

• Terrorism isn‘t mainly a refugee topic.Most perpetrators of terrorist attacks have been born and growing

up in Europe.

IS/Daesh does not rely on human traffickers but uses it mainly forpropaganda purposes. Additionally IS/Daesh aims at radicalizationof refugees and tries to steer them.

Statistical likelihood that beyond one million refugees there arecriminals, terrorists etc. is not surprising.

Nevertheless the exceptional leave to remain of a proven criminal asylum seeker may not be the normal case (otherwise the acceptance of liberal asylum regulation will decrease).

Of course border controls have to be effective and probably strengthened (France/Germany will put biometrics, European exercises, information exchange etc. on agenda of summit of EU heads of state on Sept. 16 in Bratislava)

• Refugee topic has to be tackled on international level.• Existing rules have to be re-enforced / adopted.

Challenges for the Industry

• Industry is crucial for a succesful integration

Offering of services / information

Offering of personell

Offering of jobs

• Security challenges have to be tackled, eg

Easy service offerings vs. customer identification

Broad job offers vs. lack of security clearance

• Pilot Project German Ministry of Defense?

training for >100 Syrian migrants for civilian roles in the areas of technology, medicine, and logistics

Cultural challenges

• It‘s an illusion to think that one can completely know, who is really here, what everybody has encountered– and is doing in the future.

• Germany and Merkel as a role model?• Yes, mistakes have been made.• Yes, criminals and people with anti-democratic convictions

came in.• Yes, bad things have happened.• No, there is no significant increase of crime rates due to the

refugees in Germany.• No, the constitutional right of asylum is not limited to people

who can contribute immediately to a prospering business.

• It’s all about people – and about integration. A good integration policy is always also a good security policy!

Cultural challenges

• Food for Thought: Welcome Culture helps, not to mix up the fight against IS/Daesh with a fight against Islam (and therefore blocking integration)?

• Robert Verkaik: The key to beating terrorism is winning the hearts and minds of Muslims living in the communities that are vulnerable to radicalisation by hate preachers and terror groups like Islamic State and al-Qaeda.http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/how-angela-merkels-open-door-immigration-policy-protects-germany-from-terrorism-in-the-long-run-a7156756.html

• Tobias Jochheim: Terrorism is only as strong as our fear ofit. And if Germany – being shocked – tries to put securityabove everything, it is digging its own grave.http://www.rp-online.de/politik/deutschland/terror-in-der-angst-steckt-eine-chance-aid-1.6171523

We must not lose proportionality as every exaggerated security law or measure is limiting individual freedom and undermining peoples trust in state and the entire society.