The rise of the The rise of the Sustainable CultureSustainable Culture from from

the the Ashes of the Oil EmpireAshes of the Oil Empire

Dr. Susan KrumdieckDr. Susan Krumdieck

NZ ESR Conference 2004NZ ESR Conference 2004

A Long Time Ago…A Long Time Ago…

Whales started to get scarce and,

behold,

the ground in Oklahoma spouted forth oil

And there was light,

and the light grew

And the Oil Empire was born…And the Oil Empire was born…

""supply creates demand supply creates demand ""

Jean Baptiste SayJean Baptiste Say (1767-1832) (1767-1832)

And the Law of the Land was And the Law of the Land was

And so the people prospered…And so the people prospered…

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

0

10

20

30

40

50Global Annual Hydrocarbon Production

Fossil Fuel

Water

Minerals

And technology could accomplish And technology could accomplish anything…anything…

Everything will be alright, as long as we form a federation and find the infinite energy source

Dilithium Crystals

Then some people became Then some people became concernedconcerned

And sometimes when they thought And sometimes when they thought about the future….about the future….

It seemed like things were getting It seemed like things were getting out of controlout of control

“Sometime in the 23rd century...the survivors of war, overpopulation and pollution are living in a great domed city, sealed away from the forgotten world outside, controlled by a powerful computer”

““Without vision the people perish…”Without vision the people perish…”

““What we see is not the What we see is not the old city being old city being resurrected. It's resurrected. It's something new that something new that will be born out of the will be born out of the ashes of the old...." ashes of the old...."

But nice, smart people were working on But nice, smart people were working on answersanswers

(J. Rifkin)

We need cheap, plentiful energyWe need cheap, plentiful energy Demand is projected to grow by 40%Demand is projected to grow by 40% We need more energy for economic growthWe need more energy for economic growth We will require new productionWe will require new production Clean coalClean coal

But the answers didn’t seem to be But the answers didn’t seem to be answers answers

And many were troubled…And many were troubled…

Righteous warnings of impending disasterRighteous warnings of impending disaster

Denial – Forward self-projectionDenial – Forward self-projection

Blame – Find those at faultBlame – Find those at fault

Fatalistic Acceptance – TragedyFatalistic Acceptance – Tragedy

And they dreamed of the future of the And they dreamed of the future of the Oil Empire becoming the Oil Empire becoming the

Hydrogen EconomyHydrogen Economy

Now a new age dawnsNow a new age dawns

Unconstrained Supply

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 20500

10

20

30

40

50Constrained Supply

Global Annual Hydrocarbon Production

Total Hydrocarbons (after Campbell, 2001 model)

Question: Question:

How do we have a high quality of life, if

there are limited resources?

Continuity TheoryContinuity Theory

+

-

Quality Economy TechnologySustainableFactors

Change Factors

Regulation Trade Innovation

Performance

Impacts

Nature

Continuity Model

How do we discover continuity?How do we discover continuity?

Sustainable Energy ArchitectureSustainable Energy Architecture

Form and Function

Service within the limits of material budget and requirements of structural robustness

Beauty and Expression

Advanced Energy and Material Advanced Energy and Material Systems LaboratorySystems Laboratory

Interdisciplinary research effort to

develop the theory, models, information,

ideas, technology and planning tools

for New Zealand to begin the journey

toward a Sustainable Civilization.

Research DirectivesResearch Directives

Continuity Theory development and Continuity Theory development and application application

Continuity Model developmentContinuity Model developmentStrategic Analysis for particular problems Strategic Analysis for particular problems

and issues and issues

Strategic scenario developmentStrategic scenario developmentNew Technology opportunity realizationNew Technology opportunity realization

Continuity ModelContinuity Model

Continuity Model

Sustainability Factors

Tony Burton, PhD student

Strategic AnalysisStrategic Analysis

Christchurch: Energy analysis for home Christchurch: Energy analysis for home heating and air pollution – 5 year scenarioheating and air pollution – 5 year scenario

Tristan Wallbank 2002Tristan Wallbank 2002Final Year Project Team 2004Final Year Project Team 2004

PetroChina: Transportation Energy PetroChina: Transportation Energy

Scenario and Technology ReviewScenario and Technology ReviewAndre Dantas, T. Burton, E. Wang, S. Minges 2003Andre Dantas, T. Burton, E. Wang, S. Minges 2003

Transportation and Electric Grid ScenarioTransportation and Electric Grid ScenarioFinal Year Project Team 2004Final Year Project Team 2004

Energy ArchitectureEnergy Architecture

Sustainable Energy Constrained TransportSustainable Energy Constrained Transport

Christchurch Christchurch Silke Leitermann 2003Silke Leitermann 2003Michael Saunders, Masters Student 2004Michael Saunders, Masters Student 2004

Model for a system that balances the renewable energy availability with the requirements of a high quality of life

Destination ProjectDestination Project