the rise of emerging markets signifies the end of the...
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SeanStarrsCityUniversityofHongKong
ISA-HKConference2017
MyISA-HKtalk,ThePacificCenturyisAnchoredintheUnitedStates:HowtheRiseof
theRestMarkstheEndoftheBeginningoftheAmericanCentury,isbasedonthefollowingforthcomingbookchapter:
• Starrs, Sean (Forthcoming 2017) The Rise of Emerging Markets Signifies the End of the Beginning of
the American Century: Henry Luce and the Emergence of Global Capitalism in Salvador Santino F. Regilme Jr. and James Parisot, eds. Global Cooperation or Conflict? The Rise of Emerging Powers and the Post-American World Order London & New York: Routledge.
AuthorBio:SeanKenjiStarrsisAssistantProfessorofInternationalRelationsintheDepartmentofAsianandInternationalStudiesattheCityUniversityofHongKong.HehaspublishedonAmericanhegemonyandthefutureofworldorderinInternationalStudiesQuarterly,NewLeftReview,andJournalofContemporaryAsia,amongothers.Acknowledgements:IthankMingtangLiuforresearchassistance,andtheHongKongUniversityGrantsCouncilforfunding,Grant#21615915
TheRiseofEmergingMarketsSignifiestheEndofthe
BeginningoftheAmericanCentury:
HenryLuceandtheEmergenceofGlobalCapitalism
FromthevantagepointofthegreatestWallStreetcrashsince1929,theensuing
2008-2009globalfinancialcrisis,theGreatRecession,theEurozonecrisis,
contrastedwiththecontinuedrapideconomicgrowthofmanyemergingmarkets,
mostofallChina,coupledwiththeirgrowingconfidenceinglobalgovernance—
HenryLuce’s(1941)visionofan“Americancentury”appearstobecrumblinginto
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dust.Manycommentatorsassertthatthe2017inaugurationofPresidentDonald
Trumpmaysignifythefinalnailinthecoffinoftheliberalinternationaleconomic
order.Thischapter,however,arguessomethingverydifferent.Insteadofits
implosion,theAmericancenturyisonlynowbeingrealized,afterhalfacenturyof
growingpainsandchallenges.Thus,thefirstdecadesofthetwenty-firstcentury
markstheendofthebeginningoftheAmericancentury,aswearenowcloserto
HenryLuce’soriginalvisionthaneverbefore.Inordertounderstandthis,wemust
haveaclearconceptionofwhattheAmericancenturyissupposedtobe,howit
couldonlybepartiallyachievedpost-1945,withmanychallenges,andhowtherise
ofemergingmarketsandtheirintegrationintoglobalcapitalismispreciselyoneof
themaingoalsoftheAmericancentury.Unliketoomanycommentariesonchanging
worldorderthatfocusmostlyonthepresentandlinearprojectionsintothefuture,
wemustdelveintothepastandhaveabirds-eyeviewofthepost-1945worldorder
tounderstandhowtoconceptualizethepost-2008riseofemergingmarkets—and
whetherthiswillleadtoincreasingcooperationorconflict.
Therefore,thischapterreturnstoHenryLuce’svisioninthe1940sandin
SectionIsetsouttheparametersofwhatconstitutestheAmericancentury—and
weshallseethatitwasonlypartiallyrealizedfromthe1950sto2008.Thekey
componentsofLuce’svisionwereonlyreallyachievedbytheturnofthecentury
withthecollapseofstatecommunismasanalternativegrowthmodelandthe
capitalistriseofemergingmarketssincethe2000s.Weshallcompareandcontrast
thestarkdifferencesbetweenthefirstwaveofemergingmarkets(ortheThird
World)inthe1950sto1970swiththesecondwavepost-2008.Inshort,duringthe
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firstwavetheychallengedWestern-dominatedcapitalism,butinthesecondwave
theyareintegratingwiththissameorder.AndasthefoundingeditorofFortune
Magazine,LucewasconcernedwithhowAmericanbusinesscouldinfluencethe
world,whatheconsideredtobethedrivingthrustoftheAmericancentury.Section
IIofthischapterwillthereforeinvestigatetowhatextentAmericanbusinesshas
benefittedfromthecapitalistriseofothers.WeshallseethatfarfromAmerican
declineandincreasingconflictwiththeriseofemergingmarketspost-2008,weare
nowclosertoLuce’svisionoftheAmericancenturythaneverbefore.
SectionI:HenryLuce’sVisionoftheAmericanCenturyand
itsPartialRealization1941-2008
WhileDeanAchesonandGeorgeKennan,amongotherUSstateplanners,actually
designedAmericanforeignpolicyinthe1940s,thischapterfocusesonHenryLuce
becauseheplayedaninfluentialroleinshapingeliteopinionatthetime,
popularizingtheconceptofthe“Americancentury”.Luceestablishedamedia
empirethatincludedwidelyreadmagazinessuchasFortune,Life,Time,andSports
Illustrated.HisseminalarticleinLifeMagazinepublishedinFebruary1941(1999),
TheAmericanCentury,wasacall-to-armsforhisfellowAmericanelitestoonceand
forallabandonwhathesawasthedisastrousAmericanpolicyof“isolationism”
sincetheendoftheGreatWar.Professingtheheightsofliberalcapitalistidealism,
LuceproclaimedthatthiswasagoldenopportunitytospreadAmericanbusiness,
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culture,knowledge,andvaluesaroundtheworld,allowingtheworldtoshareinthe
Americandreamandprosperity,thegoodlifeofmassconsumerismanddemocracy.
Thiswasnotself-lessidealism,asLucearguedthatthisliberalinternationalism
wouldbeinthebestinterestsoftheUnitedStatesandAmericanbusiness,whilea
returntoisolationismwouldleadtofurtherchaos,war,andeconomiccatastrophe.
Thus,hecalleduponhisfellowAmericansto“acceptwholeheartedlyourdutyand
ouropportunityasthemostpowerfulandvitalnationintheworldandin
consequencetoexertupontheworldthefullimpactofourinfluence,forsuch
purposesasweseefitandbysuchmeansasweseefit”(Luce1999,165).
Luceproclaimedthatthepurpose“forAmericaandforAmericaalone[is]to
determinewhetherasystemoffreeeconomicenterprise…shallorshallnotprevail
inthiscentury”(1999,169).EspeciallyaftertheSecondWorldWar,theprimary
threattotheexpansionofcapitalismwasofcourseitsmainalternative,
communism,asledbytheSovietUnion.Asforthemeans,inLuce’spost-war
writings,heargued,“TheU.S.,possessingindustrialproductionroughlyequaltothat
ofalltherestoftheworld,isalonecapableofproducingandexportingthe
machineryandskills”thatarenecessarytorollbackwhatmanyAmericanelites
regardedastheincreasing“communization”oftheworld(1947,82).Theprimary
agentswiththisrolewerewhatLuceregardedas“battalionsforfreedom”:thegiant
Americancorporationsthatwould,beginningin1955,comprisetheannualFortune
500list,fromStandardOilofNewJersey(theprecursortotoday’sExxonMobil)to
FordandGeneralMotors,fromGeneralElectrictoIBMandsmallerfirmssuchas
GilletteSafetyRazor(1947,189).LucearguedthatiftheseAmerican“battalionsfor
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freedom”followtheir“enlightenedself-interest”ratherthan“ruthlessexploitation”,
themoreprosperitytheyallowotherstohave,themoretheycanbuyAmerican
goods(1947,84).Thisisacrucialpointforconsideringthecurrentcapitalistriseof
emergingmarkets,asmanycommentatorsassumeazero-sumworldofothers
risingtherebycausingtheUStoautomaticallydecline.
Luce’svision,then,wasfargranderthanmereinternationaltrade(albeithe
thoughtthatwasvitaltoo),butencompassedforeigndirectinvestmentleadingto
theestablishmentofaglobalmassconsumermarketopentoAmericangoods.In
otherwords,thefoundationofthecreationoftheAmericancenturyisthe
protectionandpromotionofglobalcapitalism,makingtheworldsafeforAmerican
businessto,inhismind,worktheirmagicbuildingglobalprosperity.Toachieve
this,theUSwouldreviveothercapitalisteconomies,whichwouldnotbecomea
threattotheUS,butaboonforallconcerned(aslongastheyremainedopen).For
example,likeotherAmericanelites,LucewasanearlyproponentofEuropean
integration.In1950hearguedthat,underthe“makeshiftslogan”of“integration”,
theUSshouldurge“theWesternEuropeanstocreateacommoneconomyof250
millionpeople…sothatinessentialrespectstheEuropeaneconomywillmore
closelyresembletheAmerican”(1950,60).Again,thiswas“enlightenedself-
interest”,asLuceassertedthata“virtuouscircle”wouldbecreatedbecausethe
“moreprosperousandcompetitiveisEurope,themoreprofitablyandfreelycan
EuropeandAmerica”dobusiness(1950,60).Giventherecenthistoryofthefirst
halfofthetwentiethcentury,thiswasaboldandindeedvisionaryclaimforan
Americanelitetomakein1950.
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Insum,then,theAmericanCenturyistheprotection,promotion,and
expansionofglobalcapitalismunderAmericaninfluenceandleadership,deepening
globalcapitalistintegrationdrivenbyAmericancorporations.Themoreofthe
world’spopulationthatfallsunderthissphereofcapitalistinfluence,thegreater
thisvisionwillberealized.Thecapitalistriseofothersisasignofthesuccessofthe
AmericanCentury,notitsdownfall,aslongastheserisingcountriesareopento
Americanbusinessandinfluence,andareintegratedintothissystemofglobalmass
consumerism.
WhileLucewasunwaveringinthegrandiosityofhisvision,fromthevantage
pointofthe1940sheknewthathisAmericanCenturywouldbeatallorderto
implementacrosstheentireworld.Lucerecognizedthat“forpoliticalreasons,half
theworldisprobablyoutasafieldfordirectAmericaninvestment:Russiaandthe
Russian-dominatedcountriesofEasternEurope,northernChinaandManchuria,
mostofIndia,GermanyandJapan,Korea,andIndo-China”(1947,189-190).Infact,I
arguethatthese“political”challengeswouldonlyintensifyoverthenextseveral
decades.NotonlyweretherecommunistrevolutionsinChinaandCubathat
nationalizedandkickedoutcapitalistfirms,buttherewerealsoaslewofanti-
Western,nationalindependenceand/oranti-capitalistmovementsacrossAfrica,
Asia,andLatinAmericainthe1950sto1970s(Prashad2008).AsBruceCumings
putit,these“anti-colonialrevolutionsthathadwonorwerewinningpower
throughouttheThirdWorldgaveatoweringinfluencetoavarietyofThirdWorld
leaders(Mao,HoChiMinh,KimIlSung,PatriceLumumba,Castro,Quadaffi)that
wouldbeunimaginable[bytheturnofthecentury]”(Cumings1999,274).
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TherewerealsocollectiveeffortssuchastheNon-AlignedMovement(NAM),
establishedfirstbyEgypt,India,Indonesia,Ghana,andYugoslaviain1961(with
originsinthe1955BandungConference,Indonesia)tochartanationalstate-led
developmentpath—andaNewInternationalEconomicOrder(NIEO)inthe1970s
—thatwasindependentfromboththeUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnion.Parallel
toNAMwithsimilargoalsweretheformationsin1964oftheGroupof77(G77)in
theGeneralAssemblyoftheUnitedNationsandtheUnitedNationsConferenceon
TradeandDevelopment—bothofwhichalsosupportedtheNIEO.The
OrganizationforPetroleumExportingCountrieswasfoundedin1960inthecontext
ofrisingArabnationalismandsocialism,andspecificallytheattempttowrest
controlofdomesticoilproductionandpricesfromWesterntransnational
corporations(whatwerethencalledthe“SevenSisters”).
Inshort,inthedecadesfollowingLuce’sproclamationoftheAmerican
century,thebulkoftheEurasianlandmasswaseffectivelyclosedtoAmerican
businessandmuchoftherestoftheThirdWorldwasattemptingtodecouplefrom
theirdependenceuponWesterncapitalism.Fromthevantagepointofthe
contemporarycapitalistriseoftheBRICSandotheremergingmarkets,itisperhaps
easytoforgethowmuchofachallengetotheprevailingWestern-dominated
capitalistorderthisfirstwaveoftheriseoftheThirdWorldattemptedtopresent.
Indeed,combinedwitheconomicrecessionandstagflationintheUSitselfinthe
1970salongwithuncertaintyovertheinternationalmonetaryorderbecauseofthe
USunilaterallyendingthedollar-goldstandardin1971,manysawAmerican
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hegemonyaseitheralreadyfinished(Kindleberger1969;Rosecrance1976;
Keohane1984;Cox1987)orinterminaldecline(Aminetal1982;Kennedy1988).
Ironically,despitetheconventionalwisdomonAmericandeclineinthe
1980s,bythatdecadetheThirdWorldchallengehadlargelycollapsed.Therewerea
varietyofreasonssuchasfragmentationasaresultofeconomiccrisisandtheir
implementationoftheIMF’sStructuralAdjustmentPrograms,which,alongwith
“neoliberalism”(Harvey2005)moregenerally,dismantledcorefeaturesofnational
state-leddevelopmentandimport-substitutionindustrializationwithprivatization
andliberalization.AlsoimportantwereaslewofAmericancovertandovertmilitary
interventionsincountriesthatsoughtanationallyindependentdevelopmentpath,
suchasIranin1953,Guatemalain1954,Congoin1961,Brazilin1964,Indonesiain
1965,Chilein1973,amongothers,nottomentiondroppingmorebombson
IndochinathaninWorldWarIIcombined(Blum2004).Moreover,theFirstWorld
wasultimatelyunabletopresentaunifiedfrontagainsttheUnitedStatestocreate
analternativemonetaryorder(Germann2014;Gowan1999),andtheUSdollar
remainsthedefactoworldcurrencytoday,asourceofimmensepowerforthe
UnitedStatestolivebeyonditsmeans(Cohen2015).Asaconsolation,theUShelped
toestablishbothinformalandformalforumsandinstitutions(suchastheWorld
EconomicForumin1971,theTrilateralCommissionin1973,theGroupofFivein
1974eventuallyleadingtotheGroupofSevenin1976,amongothers)tocollaborate
inwhatisnowcalled“globalgovernance”—thecollectivemanagementofglobal
capitalismbytheworld’selites.Andbythe1980stheUnitedStatesgrewoutofits
stagflation.
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Nevertheless,eveninmuchoftheworldthatostensiblywasopenand
welcomingtoAmericandirectinvestment,giventhatthevastmajorityofthe
world’spopulationwasstillpeasants,Lucelamented,“businessactivitydoesnot
touchthemassofthepeopleortouchesthemsolittleastobeofnoimportance
eithertothemortobusiness”(1950,60).Therefore,LucearguedthattheUSmust
“getallthepeopleintheworld,orasmanyofthemaswecan,functionallyrelatedto
abusinesseconomy”,whichwould“meanavastReformationintheworld’swaysof
earningitsliving”(1950,60-61).Thiseffortwouldlaterbecalled“modernization”
(Rostow1960)and“internationaldevelopment”(Leys1999),andbythe1970swas
drivenbytheIMF(Chossudovsky1997)andWorldBank(Cammack2004),among
otherdevelopmentagencieswhethergovernmental,intergovernmental,or
nongovernmental.Nevertheless,livingstandardsinmanyThirdWorldcountriesin
the1980sand1990s,especiallyinAfricaandLatinAmerica,actuallydeclined.It
wasstillfarfromclearwhetherthemassesoftheThirdWorldwouldbesuccessfully
integratedintoglobalcapitalismasconsumers.
ForthesereasonsaloneitisdifficulttoarguethattheAmericancenturywas
successfulasaglobalprojectuntilatleastthecollapseoftheThirdWorldchallenge
andtheopeningofChinabythe1980s,andthecollapseoftheSovietUnionin1991.
Henceitwasonlyinthe1990sthatcapitalismbecametrulyglobalizing,asthevast
majorityoftheworldbecameopentoAmericanbusinessandinvestment.AfterLuce
calledforthespeedyresolutionofnegotiationsfortheestablishmentofan
InternationalTradeOrganization(1947,83),duetoalackofconsensusitquickly
dissolvedintoaGeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade,andcouldonlybe
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achievedhalfacenturylaterin1995withtheestablishmentoftheWorldTrade
Organization(WTO).Nevertheless,itwasnotyetclearinthe1990swhether
emergingmarketswereindeedemerging,especiallywithrobustmassconsumer
markets,whichatminimumrequireenoughworkerstohaveasteadyincome.
Rather,manycountrieswerestillstrugglingtogrowinthe1990s,withespecially
LatinAmericaandEastAsiaplaguedbyfinancialcrises,coupledwithRussiaand
muchofEasternEuropemiredinagreatdepression.Moreover,China’sintegration
withglobalcapitalismas“workshopoftheworld”wasstillinitsearlystages,with
itsexport-andurbanization-drivengrowthacceleratingrapidlyonlyafterChina
joinedtheWTOin2001,spurringthecommoditiessupercyclethatinturn
stimulatedtheriseofnumerousemergingmarkets(Starrs2014).
The2008WallStreetcrashandensuingglobalfinancialcrisisrevealedtwo
importantfeaturesoftheemergingtwenty-firstcenturyworldorder:1)Farfrom
havingdecoupled,emergingmarketswerebythendeeplyintegratedintoglobal
capitalismingeneralandWallStreetinparticular,asthecrisisrapidlyspread
aroundtheworld;and2)Emergingmarketswerefullycommittedtodrivingglobal
(capitalist)growthastheWestwasmiredincrisis(Cammack2012).China
especiallyledtherecoveryformanycountriesbyimplementingthesecondlargest
governmentstimulusaftertheUS,aswellasincreasingitsIMFquotaandbeing
activeinthenewlyresuscitatedG20.Chinaalsopushedfortheestablishmentofnew
non-Western-centricgatheringsandorganizations,suchastheBRICSSummitand
AsianInfrastructureInvestmentBank,theramificationsofwhichwillbediscussed
intheconclusion.
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ThatChina’sgrowthbegantoslowfrom2013whileothermajoremerging
markets,suchasBrazilandRussia,havesincebeenmiredinrecession,shouldnot
detractfromthefactthatessentiallytheentireplanetisnow,post-2008,integrated
intoglobalcapitalism(Kiely2016),inawaythatvalidatesLuce’svisionofaworld
opentoAmericanbusiness.Thatthekeyproblemforemergingmarketsafterthe
endofthecommoditiessypercycleiswhethertheycanrestructuretheirpolitical
economiestowardssustainedconsumermarketgrowthsymbolizestheendofthe
beginningoftheAmericancentury.ButwhycallittheAmericancenturywhenthe
USappearstobeinrelativeeconomicdeclinevis-à-visemergingmarketsinthe
aftermathofthe2008WallStreetcrash?ThiswouldonlymakesenseiftheUS
continuedtobenefitdisproportionatelyfromtheconsolidationofglobalcapitalism
intothetwenty-firstcentury.Wemustnowturntothedata.
SectionII:AmericanCapitalandtheRiseofOthers—
InvestigatingtheData
RobertGilpin(1975)alreadyarguedinthe1970sthatasAmericancorporations
expandabroadthroughforeigndirectinvestment,theyspreadAmericanknowledge
andtechnology,allowingforeigncompetitorstocatch-uptherebydiffusingtheir
originalmarketdominance.Luce,however,assumedthattheUSwouldcontinueits
dominanceasothersbecomemoreprosperous,astheUSwouldbeabletobenefit
fromtheriseofothersbycreatingmorebusinessforAmericancorporations(his
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“enlightenedself-interest”).Thus,afterdecadesofexpandinganddeepening
operationsabroadcoupledwiththeriseofEastAsia,haveAmericanfirmslosttheir
technologicaldominancetoforeigncompetition?
ThefollowingfourtablesattempttocompareAmericandominanceoverhalf
acenturyinfourbroadsectorsthatarecrucialforadvancedknowledgeand
technology:1)Auto&Parts;2)InformationTechnology;3)Aerospace&Heavy
Machinery;and4)Pharmaceuticals&SpecializedChemicals.Thereareavarietyof
metricstomeasurecorporatedominance,suchasassets,sales,andmarketvalue
relativetocompetitors,butinthefollowingtablesIchooserelativeprofit-sharesin
eachsectorbecauseaccumulationofprofitistheprimarygoalofcapitalistfirms—
andhighprofitmarginsoftenindicateadvancedknowledgeandtechnology(aswell
assuccessfulmarketing).Indeed,firmswillsometimessellordisinvest(ratherthan
grow)assets,shedemployees,andreduceproductioninordertoboostprofit.On
theotherhand,firmsmayalsotemporarilysufferreducedprofitorevenalosswhile
theyrestructureinordertoboostlong-termprofitability.Thelargestfirmsthatcan
sustainprolongedlossesmayhaveacompetitiveedgeoverfirmsthatcannotafford
totemporarilyreduceprofit.Hencethereisadegreeofarbitrarinesstoanysingle
metricandavarietyoffactorsmustbeconsidered,bothquantitativeandqualitative.
Furthermore,thereareanumberofdifficultieswhencomparingcorporate
competitivenessacrosstheworldsincethebeginningofthepost-warperiod.Most
ofall,welackconsistentandcomprehensivedatastretchingbacktomid-century.In
thefollowingtables,Idrawupontheannualcorporaterankingspioneeredand
compiledbyLuce’sveryownFortuneMagazine.Itsinternationalcorporatelistsby
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profitonlybeginin1963,andonlyoftheworld’stop200industrialfirms(whereas
Fortune’sfirstlist,ofthetop500Americanfirmsbyrevenue,beginsin1955).The
followingfourtables,then,presenttherankingsbyprofitin1963and2016,the
latestyearatthetimeofwriting.Weshouldtakenote,however,thattheearlyyears
oftheannualrankingshaveanAmericanbias,sinceFortune’sAmericanstaffhad
easieraccesstocorporateannualreportsfromAmericanfirmsoverforeignfirms,
especiallythosebasedinnon-Englishspeakingcountries.Inaddition,accounting
standards—includinghowprofitiscalculated—varyandhavechangednumerous
timessince1963bothwithinasinglecountryandbetweendifferentcountries.
Indeed,increasinginternationalstandardizationinaccountingandreportingrulesis
oneaspectofglobalization,nottomentiontheintroductionofcapitalismitselfin
ChinaandtheformerSovietUnion.Theserankingsarealsoaffectedbycurrency
fluctuationsasnon-USvaluesareconvertedtoUSdollars.Forexample,in1994with
sharpyenappreciation,the“salesof94Japanesecompanies[ontheGlobal500list]
wentupindollars,downinyen”(Fortune1994,143).Therearealsovastly
divergentratesofinflationacrosstimeandcountries.
Moreover,therehasobviouslybeensignificanttechnologicaldynamismsince
1963,creatingentirelynewsectors,markets,andbusinesses,whilealsodestroying
ordiminishingthecompetitivenessofotherfirmsorentireindustries.In1963,for
example,canningfirmssuchasAmericanCanandContinentalCancouldstillmake
similarprofittoaerospacefirmssuchasLockheedAircraftandMartinMarietta,all
between$41millionand$50million.TheUnitedStateshadbeendominantinthe
canningindustrysincethenineteenthcentury,butthefactthatthisAmerican
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dominancehasdissipatedsincetheearly1960sdoesnotnecessarilyindicatelost
Americancompetitivenessatthetechnologicalfrontier.Rather,itistheindustry
itselfthathaslostcompetitivenessastechnologicaladvancementaccelerated,
reducingthecanningindustrytolowvalue,lowtechnologystatus(textilesis
anotherexample).This“creativedestruction”(Schumpeter1994)isespeciallythe
caseinwhatconstitutesthemostadvancedtechnologiesatanygiventime,
informationtechnologybeingoneofthekeyexamples(helpingtopropel
globalizationitself).Thus,thefollowingsectorsaremeanttobesufficientlybroadto
accountforsignificanttechnologicaldynamismoverthepasthalf-century,including
withinasinglefirmsuchasGeneralElectric,whichhasshifteditscoresectorsfrom
householdappliancestoairplaneenginesandotherheavymachineryoverthis
period.
[insertTable1here]
WebeginwiththeAuto&Partssector,asTable1revealsthetop10firmsin
theworldbyprofitin1963and2016,andtheiraggregatenationalprofit-shares.
TheerainwhichtheAmericanprofit-sharecouldbeastaggering93%ofthetopten
firmsinAuto&Partsiscertainlylonggone.SotooistheutterdominanceofGeneral
Motors(GM),morethantripletheprofitofitsnearestcompetitor,Ford.Afterhalfa
century,theglobalautosectorismuchmoregeographicallyfragmented,with
Japanese,German,andAmericanfirmsrepresentingtheleadingnationalities,and
ChineseandSouthKoreanfirmsroundingoutthetopten.Theexponentialincrease
oftheprofitsofJapaneseandGermancarmakersinthisperiodisalsostaggering,
from173timeslargerforDaimler(fromaprofitof$54millionin1963to$9.345
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billionin2016)to642timeslargerforToyota(from$30millionto$19.264billion
inthesameperiod).Ofcourse,someproportionofthisincreasewillbeaccounted
forbycurrencyfluctuationsandinflation.Regardless,clearlynon-USfirmshave
benefittedfromtheexpansionanddeepeningofglobalcapitalistproductionand
consumptionoverthepasthalf-century,as70%ofToyota’sand85%ofDaimler’s
salesin2015wereconductedoutsidetheirhomecountry(author’scalculations
fromUNCTAD2016,AnnexTable24).
Nevertheless,despitemuchturbulenceoverthedecadesthathasseenthe
riseanddeclineofBritish,French,Italian,Swedish,andothercarmakers,coupled
withtheriseofNortheastAsianfirms,GMisstillthenumbertwofirmbyprofitin
2016andFordisstillnumberfour(downfromsecondin1963).Moreover,31%of
GM’sand38%ofFord’ssalesin2015wereoutsideoftheUnitedStates(author’s
calculationsfromUNCTAD2016,AnnexTable24),implyingthattheyhavealso
benefittedfromtheexpansionanddeepeningofglobalcapitalistproductionand
consumption.Indeed,GM’sJanuary2017marketshareinChina,theworld’slargest
automobilemarketbyvolumesince2009,is14%,secondonlytoVolkswagen’s
19%,andequaltothetopthreeChinesebrandscombined:Changan,Geely,and
GreatWall(author’scalculationsfromChinaAutoWeb2017).In2014,theFord
Focuswas“China’sbest-sellingcar”(Mitchell2014).AlsonotethatwhileSAIC’s
2016profitistheseventhlargestintheworld,itsjointventureswithGMand
Volkswagenaccountfor95%ofitssales,withitsownbrandcarsaccountingfor3%
(SAICMotor2016,14).
[insertTable2here]
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Table2presentsthetoptenfirmsinInformationTechnology.Thissectorhas
beenoneofthemostdynamicoverthepasthalfcentury,notonlydrivingthe
informationtechnologyrevolutionthathasunderpinnedglobalizationbutalso
creatingentirelynewsub-sectorsandmarkets,aswellasdestroyingothers.Hence
weshouldexpectahighdegreeofsectoralchurn,whichiswhatweseeinTable2as
thereisonlyonefirmthatisonbothtoptenlistsseparatedby53years:IBM,from
largestprofitin1963slippingtofourthin2016.Indeed,IBMistheonlyfirminthe
toptenof2016thatevenexistedin1963(SamsungElectricIndustries—which
restructuredasSamsungElectronicsin1988—wasfoundedin1969,albeitits
primaryowner,theSamsungGroup,wasfoundedin1938).Therefore,giventhe
revolutionarychangesinandbythissectoroverthepasthalf-century,includingtoa
significantdegreedrivingtheriseofNortheastAsia,itisastoundingthatthe
Americanprofit-shareisrelativelythesamein1963(86%)asin2016(80%).This
AmericandominanceisallthemoreremarkablewhenconsideringthattheUSdollar
againstabasketofmajorcurrencieshasdevaluedbyaboutathirdoverthisperiod
(FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis2017),therebyincreasingtherelativevalueof
non-USprofit-sharesagainsttheUSwhenconvertedtodollars.Anditshouldnotbe
surprisingthatthesectorthatlargelydevelopedthetechnologytopropel
globalizationhasalsobenefitedgreatlyfromglobalization.Forexample,65%of
Apple’s,90%ofSamsungElectronics’,54%ofAlphabet’s(Google’sholding
company),53%ofIBM’s,54%ofMicrosoft’s,and55%ofOracle’ssalesare
conductedinforeigncountries(author’scalculationsfromUNCTAD2016,Annex
Table24).
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[insertTable3here]
Table3revealsanotherimportantsectorforadvancedtechnology:
AerospaceandHeavyMachinery.TheAmericanprofit-sharehasdeclinedbyovera
fifth,from84%in1963toastilldominant66%in2016(despitetheUSdollar
depreciatingbyathird).Moreover,GeneralElectric(GE)sufferedalossof$6.126
billionin2016largelyduetorestructuring(Fortune2016,26:GeneralElectric).In
contrast,GE’sprofitin2015was$15.233billion,morethandoubleitschief
competitorSiemens’profitof$7.288billionin2015.ThecorrespondingAmerican
profit-shareofAerospaceandHeavyMachineryin2015was76%whileGermany’s
was13%(author’scalculationsfromFortuneGlobal500(2015))—asmallchange
from84%in1963.Moreover,despiteGE’ssteep2016lossofover$6billion,
investorsseemtobelievethatGE’srestructuringwillbesuccessfulasitsshareprice
increased25%inthatsameyear(Fortune2016,26:GeneralElectric).Allofthisis
tosaythatwhiletheAmericanprofit-shareinAerospaceandHeavyMachineryhas
declinedoverthepasthalf-century,Americanfirmscontinuetodominatethetop
tenofthissectorwithmorethantwo-thirdsoftheprofit.Firmsinthissectorhave
alsobenefittedfromglobalization,as77%ofSiemens’,55%ofGE’s,and45%of
UnitedTechnologies’saleswereconductedabroad(author’scalculationsfrom
UNCTAD2016,AnnexTable24).
[insertTable4here]
Table4presentsanothersectorthathasseenahighdegreeoftechnological
andcompetitivedynamism,withonlytwofirmsinthe1963listremaininginthe
2016list(Procter&GambleandDowChemical).Technologicaladvanceshavebeen
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especiallyprominentinthesub-sectorofbiotechnologysincethe1980s(when
GileadSciencesandAmgenwerefounded,thenumberoneandninefirmbyprofitin
2016).Moregenerally,pharmaceuticalshaveriseninimportanceintheFortune200
intermsofprofitabilityrelativetoothersectors,suchasautomobilesasseenin
Table1.Concomitantly,therehasbeenadecliningimportanceinindustrial
chemicalsforadvancedtechnologyandprofitability,withDowChemicaltheonly
relevantfirmremaininginthetoptenin2016from1963(incidentally,retainingits
sixthplaceacrossthosetwoyears).DrivingsomeofthesechangesareBritishand
especiallySwissfirms,thelatteraccountingforaquarteroftheprofitin
Pharmaceuticals&SpecializedChemicals.Nevertheless,similartowhatwesawin
Aerospace&HeavyMachinery,Americanfirmsstillcollectivelydominatethetop
tenwitha63%profit-sharein2016,despitedecliningoveraquarterfrom87%in
1963.Unsurprisingly,thissectorhasalsobenefittedfromglobalizationintermsof
foreignasaproportionoftotalsales,especiallySwiss(Novartis’98%andRoche’s
99%)andBritish(GlaxoSmithKline’s94%)firms,butalsoAmerican,from63%for
Procter&Gambleand56%forPfizertoJohnson&Johnson’s49%andAmgen’s20%
(author’scalculationsfromUNCTAD2016,AnnexTable24).
Thenextfourtablesexhibitthesamesectorsandfirmsasthepreviousfour
tables,butpresentthethreelargestnationalownershipsharesofeachofthetopten
firmsin2016,aswellasthethreelargestaveragenationalownershipsharesofthe
topteninaggregate.Thefollowingfourtablesrevealanaspectofglobalizationthat
islittlecommentedupon:theincreasingliberalizationoffinancesincethe1980s(in
largepartdrivenbytheUS)aroundtheworldhasallowedAmericaninvestorsto
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collectivelyownsizablesharesofnon-USfirmsbytheearlytwenty-firstcentury.
Thus,eveniftherelativeaggregatedominanceoftheAmericanprofit-sharesin
certain(butnotall)sectorsislessoverwhelmingthanhalfacenturyago,American
investorsownnotonlyfirmsbasedintheUnitedStates,butalsoincreasinglyfirms
basedoutsideoftheUnitedStates.Thisaspectofglobalizationhassignificant
implicationsforthecontinuedcentralityoftheUnitedStatesinglobalcapitalism,as
weshallseebelow.Butfirst,letusinvestigatetowhatextentAmericaninvestors
ownthetoptenfirmsineachofthesefouradvancedsectors.
[insertTable5here]
Table5revealsdiversityintheconcentrationofnationalownershipshares,
fromahighof98%ChineseownershipoftheChinesestate-ownedenterpriseSAIC
MotortothewidelygeographicallydispersedownershipofDaimler.AllChinese
state-ownedenterprisesaremajorityChinesestate-owned(inthecaseofSAIC
Motor,theChinesestateowns88%).Alsonotethepredominantaggregate
ownershipofAmericaninvestorsofAmericanfirms(87%ofGMand85%ofFord),
aswellastheconsiderableAmericanownershipofGerman,Korean,andJapanese
carmakers—rangingfromalmostafifthtooverathird.Thus,onaverageAmerican
investorsown35%ofthetopeightfirmsinAuto&Parts(theownershipstructures
oftheninthandtenthfirmsareunavailableduetonotbeingpubliclylisted).Thisis
thelargestnationalaggregatesharebyalmost300%,andsignificantlylargerthan
the25%Americanprofit-shareofthetopeightinthissector.Bycontrast,the
Japaneseprofit-shareof35%ofthetopeightisnotmatchedbytheaverage
Japaneseownershipof9.6%,northeaverageGermanownershipof8.1%despite
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theGermanprofit-sharebeing24%.Thisindicatesthatintermsoftheglobalization
ofthecorporateownershipoftheworld’stopcarmakersin2016,American
investorshavebenefittedmorethananyothernationality.Similarly,notethe
nationalasymmetryinownershipshares,asAmericaninvestorsownmuchmoreof
foreigncapitalthanforeigninvestorsownofAmericancapital.
[insertTables6,7&8here]
Table6revealsthataverageAmericanownershipinInformationTechnology
isevenmorepredominantat72%,morethantentimesitsnearestrivalofSouth
Koreawith7%.Again,Americanfirmshaveanoverwhelmingconcentrationof
Americanownership,from79%ofCiscoto87%ofAlphabet.Incontrast,non-US
firmshavelessconcentratednationalownership,eveniftheKoreanshareof
SamsungElectronicsisstilldominantat63%.Americaninvestors,however,
collectivelyown18%ofSamsungElectronicsand42%ofTaiwanSemiconductor,
whereasTaiwaneseinvestorsownlessthanaquarterofthelatterdespitebeing
basedinTaiwan.Table7revealsthatAmericanownershipoffirmsinAerospace&
HeavyMachineryisevenmorepronouncedthatinpreviouslydiscussedsectors,
withanaverage88%AmericanownershipofthetopsevenUS-basedfirms.Ofthe
remainingthreenon-USfirmsinthetopten,Americaninvestorscollectivelyown
theleadingnationalshareinSiemens(32%versusGermany’ssecondlargestshare
of20%)andAirbusGroup(39%versusFrance’s22%),whileAmericanownership
ofFujiHeavyIndustriesisalmostafifth(thesecondlargestshare).Likewise,Table
8demonstratesthedisproportionateAmericanownershipofthetop
Pharmaceuticals&SpecializedChemicalsfirms,including43%oftheSwissfirm
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Novartisand41%oftheBritishfirmGlaxoSmithKline—albeittheAmericanshare
ofRocheGroupisminisculeat0.6%whiletheSwissshareisoverwhelmingat93%.
TheaverageAmericanownershipofthetoptenis67%,morethanfivetimeslarger
thanitsnearestnationalrival,Switzerland’s13%.
Thereisanimportantcaveat,however,toTables5-8.Theylisttheaggregate
nationalityofcorporateowners,gleanedfromtheBloombergProfessionaldatabase.
Thisdatabaselistsallknownshareholdersofeachcorporation,bothindividually
andinaggregatebynationality.Theshareholdersofthesecorporationsrangefrom
individualpersonsandfamiliestoinvestmentfirms(ofmanytypes),other
corporationstothestate—theirnationalityisbasedontheircitizenshipfor
individualsandtheirlegaldomicileforfirms.Theshareholdersthatareinvestment
firms,however,managethewealthofmanyindividuals,andtheseindividualscould
befromaroundtheworld.Forexample,whileGoldmanSachsislegallydomiciledin
theUnitedStatesandthusgiventhenationalityof“American,”itmanagesthe
wealthofindividualsfrommanynationalities,implyingthatcorporateownership
byGoldmanSachsdoesnotnecessarilyexclusivelyequatewiththecorporate
ownershipofAmericanhouseholds.WallStreetfirmsdonotpubliclyreleasethe
identityoftheirclients,sotheproportionoftheirclientsbeingAmericanorany
othernationalityisunknown.
Whatwedoknow,however,isthatoftheworld’s$168trillionoftotal
householdwealth(excludingprimaryresidence)in2015,only$9.8trillion,or6%,is
managedoffshore,inacountryotherthanthehousehold’sdomicile,accordingto
BostonConsultingGroup(2016,11).Ofthis$9.8trillionofoffshorewealth,
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Americanhouseholdsonlyaccountfor$700billion,whichisaround1%oftotal
Americanhouseholdwealth.Inotherwords,99%ofAmericanhouseholdwealth
(excludingprimaryresidence)ismanagedbyUS-domiciledfirms—namely,Wall
Street.ThelargestrecipientofoffshorewealthisSwitzerland,holdingjustundera
quarterofthe$9.8trillion,followedbytheUKandtheCaribbean(Boston
ConsultingGroup2016,12).Hence,evenifspecificinvestmentfirmssuchas
GoldmanSachsmightmanageahighershareofforeignwealththanothers,in
aggregate,theoverwhelmingmajorityofwealthmanagedbyinvestmentfirmsis
ultimatelyownedbythosedomiciledinthatfirm’snation—withtheexceptionsof
wealthmanagersbasedintheCaribbean,Luxembourg,Singapore,Switzerland,and
otheroffshorecenters,whichpredominantlymanagethewealthofnon-citizens
(BostonConsultingGroup2016,11).Thus,because94%oftheworld’stotal
householdwealthof$168trillionismanagedonshorebyfirmsofthesame
nationalityastheirclients,itissafetoassumethattheaggregateAmerican
ownershipsharesoftheworld’stopcorporationsexhibitedinTables5-8indeed
overwhelminglyrepresentstheownershipsharesofAmericanhouseholds,andso
onformostnationalownershipshares(exceptforoffshorewealthcentersledby
Switzerland)—eveniftheexactproportionsareunknown.
[insertFigure1here]
Tofurtheremphasizethispoint,Figure1presentsthenationalsharesofthe
world’smillionaires(thoseindividualswithanetworthofUS$1millionormore,
includingprimaryresidence),asaproxyfortheworld’scapitalists.Despite
AmericanGDPaccountingfor“only”24%ofworldGDPin2015(author’s
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calculationsfromWorldBank2016),Americancitizensaccountforawhopping
46%oftheworld’smillionaires.Thisshockinglyhighproportionmakessensewhen
weunderstandthatAmericancapitalistsownnotonlyAmericancapital,which
remainsgloballydominantafterthe2008-2009globalfinancialcrisis(Starrs2013),
buttheglobalizationofcorporateownershiphasallowedAmericanstoowncapital
basedaroundtheworld,includingevenincreasinglyChineseSOEs(Starrs2017).
Moregenerally,Figure1revealsthecontinuednationalconcentrationofglobal
wealth,whichIargueisareflectionofthecontinuednationalconcentrationof
corporatedominance,asseeninTables1-4.
Insum,acrossthefouradvancedsectorsinvestigatedinTables1-4,
AmericanfirmscontinuetocollectivelydominateinInformationTechnology,
Aerospace&HeavyMachinery,andPharmaceuticals&SpecializedChemicals,with
over60%profit-sharesin2016.Indeed,despitegreatdynamismandcreative
destructioninInformationTechnology,theproportionofAmericandominancehas
barelychangedfrom86%in1963to80%in2016,especiallywhenconsideringthat
theUSdollardepreciatedbyathirdacrossthatperiod.Americanfirms,however,
havelosttheircollectivedominanceinAuto&Partssincetheearly1960s,with
intensecompetitionfromespeciallyGermanandJapanesecarmakers.Anumberof
majorindustrialcountrieshaveattemptedtoprotectandpromoteanindigenous
automobileindustryoverthedecades,asectorthatistraditionallyseenas
symbolizingadvancedindustrialprowess.Thishasresultedinthegeographic
diffusionoftechnologyandcompetitiveness,especiallytoEastAsia.Nevertheless,
GMandFordarestillsecondandfourth,respectively,largestcarmakersbyprofitin
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2016—remaininggloballycompetitiveoverthepasthalfcentury,ifnolonger
dominant.
Regardless,itshouldbenotedthattheautosectoritselfhasdiminishedin
importanceintermsofprofitandmorebroadlyasadriverofadvancedindustrial
growth,aselectronicsandsoftwarebecomethemostimportantcomponentsto
differentiatetwenty-firstcenturycars.In1963,thetotalprofitofthetoptenAuto&
Partsfirmswas2.7timeslargerthanthetotalprofitofthetoptenInformation
Technologyfirms.By2016,thisratioreversed,withthetotalprofitofthetopten
firmsinInformationTechnologybeing2.1timeslargerthaninAuto&Parts.
Similarly,in1963thetotalprofitofthetoptenfirmsinPharmaceuticals&
SpecializedChemicalswashalfthatofthetopteninAuto&Parts,andin2016itwas
44%largerthanAuto&Parts.InthesemoreimportantsectorsbyprofitAmerican
firmscontinuetocollectivelydominate.
Moreover,theglobalizationofcapitalhasalsoentailedtheglobalizationof
corporateownership,andespeciallytheglobalizationofAmericanownershipoftop
corporationsfromaroundtheworld.Tables5-8notonlyrevealtheoverwhelming
concentrationofAmericanownershipofAmericanfirms,butalsosizablesharesof
foreignfirms,oftenrangingfromafifthtomorethantwo-fifthsofSwiss-based
NovartisandTaiwan-basedTaiwanSemiconductor.Noothernationalitycomes
closetothismagnitudeofAmericancorporateownership,andisalittlecommented
uponaspectofhowAmericaninvestorsintheageofglobalizationhavebenefitted
fromincreasingliberalizationoffinancialmarketsandcapitalcontrolsaroundthe
world.Thisisatleastpartiallyreflectedinthecontinuedconcentrationofglobal
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capitalistwealthintheUnitedStates.Figure1showsthatin2015,American
millionairesconstituted46%oftheworld’s,despiteAmericansaccountingforonly
4.4%oftheworld’spopulationasopposedto6.4%in1945(thesupposedheightof
Americanhegemony),and24%oftheworld’sGDP(downfromroughlyhalfin
1945).Ihavearguedelsewhere(Starrs2013)thatAmericaneconomicpowerhas
notdeclined,ithasglobalized—andthisiskeytounderstandingthedecades-long
realizationoftheAmericancenturywiththeriseoftheBRICSintheeraof
globalization.
Conclusion:Post-2008istheBeginningoftheEndofthe
AmericanCentury
InthecontextofincreasingChineseconfidenceandinfluenceintheglobalpolitical
economyafterthe2008-2009globalfinancialcrisis,itmayseemstrangetoargue
thattheAmericancenturyisonlynowbeingrealized.Butoncewerecognizethat
China(alongwiththerestofthe“ThirdWorld”)haslongsinceabandoneditsanti-
capitalistresistanceandisnownegotiatingthetermsofitsintegrationintoglobal
capitalism,withitsdomesticmarketmoreopentoAmericanbusinessandinfluence
thaneverbefore,wearemuchclosertoLuce’svisionoftheAmericancenturythan
atanypointduringitssupposedheightintheimmediatepost-warperiod.Inthe
1950sand1960s,evenifChinawasopentoAmericanbusiness(whichofcourseit
wasnot),today’sfarmoreprosperousChineseconsumermarket(ifstilllimitedand
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rifewithinequality)ismuchmorebeneficialtoAmericancorporateintereststhana
vastpeasantsocietylargelyuntouchedbymassconsumption.Aswesaw,thisis
preciselywhatLuceenvisionedinthe1940sasadistantgoal,tointegratethe
world’speasantsocietiesintoglobalcapitalismasworkersandconsumers,which
onlytrulybecamerealizedbythe2000swiththecapitalistriseoftheBRICSand
otheremergingmarkets(Cammack2004,2012)—toanextentsurelybeyondthe
dreamsofeventheeveroptimisticLuce.
AndAmericanfirmshavecertainlybenefittedfromtheriseofaglobal
consumerclass,ashavefirmsfromothercapitalistpowers,includingincreasingly
China.Indeed,itisthismutualinterestbetweentheworld’scapitalistpowersin
expandinganddeepeningglobalcapitalismthatinlargepartexplainsitsdurability
sincethemiddleofthepreviouscentury(PanitchandGindin2012).Luce
recognizedthismutualinterestinthe1940sinregardstoEuropeandtheUS,but,
aftermanychallengesovertheensuingdecadesasoutlinedabove,thisstructural
alignmentofcapitalistinterestisonlynowtrulyglobalwiththecapitalistriseand
integrationoftheformerThirdWorld.ThecontrastbetweentheeffortsoftheNon-
AlignedMovementinthe1960sand1970stodecouplefromWesterncapitalism
withtheeffortsoftheBRICSandespeciallyChinatodaytointegratewithglobal
capitalismisremarkable.
Ofcourse,therearestilldisagreementsoverthetermsofemergingmarket
integrationandglobalgovernanceremainsacontestedandevolvingprocess
(Parisot2013).Mostnotably,Chinaisseekingtoincreaseitsinternationalinfluence
byestablishingnon-Western-centeredinternationalorganizationstoprovide
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infrastructurefunding—namely,theNewDevelopmentBank(orcolloquially
knownasthe“BRICSBank”)in2014andtheAsianInfrastructureInvestmentBank
(AIIB)in2015.ThelatterwasespeciallyseenasadirectchallengetoAmerican
hegemonyandtheBrettonWoodsinstitutions.In2015,despiteAmericanpressures
toeschewmembership,aslewofWesterncountries,beginningwithGreatBritain,
joinedtheAIIB—markinganembarrassingdiplomaticflopfortheUnitedStates.
ButaftertheinitialhubbuboversupposedAmericandeclinehadsubsided,whatis
notableishowcarefultheAIIBistonotappeartothreatentheBrettonWoods
institutions.Article1.1oftheAIIB’sArticlesofAgreementstatesthatitseeksto
“workinclosecollaboration”(ratherthanchallenge)prevailingmultilateral
institutions(AIIB2015),andvariousannouncementshavebeenmadeofareasand
projectsinwhichtheAIIBandBrettonWoodsinstitutionswillcooperate(AIIB
2017).Moreover,boththeAIIBandBRICSBankwilldispensefinancinginUSdollars
ratherthananyothercurrency,andthedevelopmentcontractswillpresumablybe
opentobiddingfrominternationalfirms(notexclusivelyChineseSOEsasinmostof
itsbilateraldevelopmentprojects).Hence,eventhoughitisstillearlydays,itseems
likelythattheAIIBandBRICSBankwillhelptofurtherintegrateemergingmarkets
intoglobalcapitalism(anddeepeningtheglobalroleoftheUSdollar),giving
especiallyChinaaroleininternationalinfrastructurefinancing,andnormalizing
theirincreasedparticipationinglobalgovernance.
Meanwhile,Chinaisstillarobustmember(includingfinancialdonor)ofall
themajorinternationalorganizationscreatedundertheaegisofAmerican
hegemony,perhapsmostnotablytheIMFandWTO.ThatXiJinpingmadeChina’s
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firstpresidentialaddressatthe2017WorldEconomicForuminDavos,Switzerland
(establishedin1971duringtheheightofandpartiallyasaresponsetotheriseof
theThirdWorldchallenge),andusedhisaddresstodefendglobalizationand
economicopenness,isastarkrealizationofhowfarthedesireforThirdWorld
decouplinghastransformedintoembracingandevendefendingglobalcapitalism.
Lucewouldhavebeenproud,andthistransformationiscertainlyintheinterestsof
Americanbusiness.
Thisstarkdifferencebetweenthefirstandsecondwavesoftheriseofthe
ThirdWorldhalfacenturyagoandtodayalsopointstotheflexibilityofAmerican
hegemony.Thebeliefintheimportanceofmaintainingandexpandingglobal
capitalismfortheAmericannationalinteresthasremainedrelativelyconsistentfor
Americanelitessince1945(havingvanquished“isolationists”withthedestruction
ofWorldWarII).Thus,theUShasalsobeenrelativelyflexibleinitshegemony
(comparedtoprevioushegemons).ThisisespeciallythecaseintheAmerican
capacitytointegrate(orco-opt)risingpowersintoacollectivemanagementof
“globalgovernance”.TheestablishmentoftheG7inthe1970sandG20post-2008
areprimeexamples.Infact,thisAmericanflexibilityextendstoencouragingthe
veryriseofitspotentialrivals,whetherJapanandWestGermanyintheearlypost-
warperiodorChinatoday—aslongasthesecountriesallowtheexpansionof
Americanbusinessandinfluencewithintheirborders(eventhiscanbeflexible,as
theUStoleratedJapaneseprotectionismfordecades,inordertoreviveJapanese
capital).
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AgenuinechallengetoAmericanhegemonywouldbeifothercountries
movedtodecouplefromtheAmerican-centeredsystem,inordertocarvean
alternativeregionalorworldorder.ThattheLatinAmericanchallengeofthe2000s
ledbythelatePresidentChavezofVenezuelawasneverabletodecouplefromthe
Americansystemdespitetheirbesteffortsrevealshowtallataskthisis.TheSoviet
Unioncametheclosesttoposingsuchathreatforseveraldecades,butitsremnants
havenowembracedglobalcapitalism,alongwithwhatusedtobecalledtheThird
World.Thefragmentationanddepoliticizationofthelatterinto“developing
countries”and“emergingmarkets”isbynowsothoroughthatwetakeforgranted
theirembracingofanddesiredintegrationwithglobalcapitalism.Capitalistsofthe
worldhaveunitedunderthebannerofglobalization,spurringastructural
alignmentofclassinterestinmaintainingtheAmericancentury.
Ifsystemicchangewilllikelynotcomefromtheworld’scapitalistclasses,
thenwhatoftheworld’sworkingclasses?Politicalshockwavesrippledthrough
2016withtheBrexitvoteinJuneandtheelectionofDonaldTrumpinNovember,
botheventsofteninterpretedasthecriesorangeroftheworkingclassagainst
decadesofglobalization.ContrarytoLuce’sassumptions,whatisintheinterestsof
bigbusinessisoftennotcompatiblewiththeinterestsoftheworkingclass,with
profit-orientedpolicesandpracticesleadingtosoaringinequality,precarious
employment,andcontinuedenvironmentaldegradation.WhatLucedidcorrectly
surmise,however,isthattheAmericanlifestyleofmassconsumerismandthe
anesthesiaoftheAmericandreamcouldbeeffectiveantidotestoworkingclass
unitychallengingcapitalism.Clearlynationaldiversityandlocalizationsremain,but
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wearecloserthanevertospreadingAmerican-stylemassconsumerismacrossthe
world,agreatboonforAmerican,aswellasmanyforeign,corporations—aswellas
agreatdistracterandcoopterfortheworkingclassesoftheworld.Nevertheless,
historyisstillbeingwritten,andtheemergenceofworkingclasseswiththe
capitalistriseofemergingmarketsmaycreatenewopportunitiesforinternational
solidarityandresistance,asmorepeoplerealizethenegativeeffectsofcapitalist
globalization(BondandGarcia2015).Itisallthemoreimportanttounderstand,
then,theincreasingemergingmarketcooperationinexpandinganddeepening
globalcapitalismpost-2008.Afteramulti-decadedetourdowntheroadof
attemptingtodecouplefromWesterncapitalism,thecapitalistriseofemerging
markets—farfromaneclipse—signifiesonlytheendofthebeginningofthe
Americancentury.
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