the ripple effects of trend management

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The Ripple Effects of Trend Management Ed Weisbart, MD, CPE, FAAFP Express Scripts

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The Ripple Effects of Trend Management. Ed Weisbart, MD, CPE, FAAFP Express Scripts. The Ripple Effects of Trend Management. With thanks to:. Beyond Trend Management. Beyond Trend Management. Beyond Trend Management. Beyond Trend Management. Two Years Ago We Said…. 65%. 50%. LDL - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

The Ripple Effects of Trend Management

Ed Weisbart, MD, CPE, FAAFPExpress Scripts

Page 2: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

The Ripple Effects of Trend Management

With thanks to:

Andy Behm Emily Cox Mark Eatherly

Amit Kulkarni Doug Mager

Rebecca Sedjo

Yakov Svirnovskiy

Page 3: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Beyond Trend Management

3

Page 4: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Beyond Trend Management

4

Page 5: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Beyond Trend Management

5

Page 6: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Beyond Trend Management

6

Page 7: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

LDLReducing Potency

Two Years Ago We Said…

50%

65%

25%

0%

Simvastatin:

30 – 47%

Simvastatin:

30 – 47%

Page 8: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

LDLReducing Potency

2006 AWP

Two Years Ago We Said…

Low High

50%

65%

25%

0%

Crestor:45 – 63%Crestor:45 – 63%

Lipitor:Lipitor:39 – 60%39 – 60%Lipitor:Lipitor:

39 – 60%39 – 60%Vytorin:45 – 60%Vytorin:45 – 60%

Simvastatin:

30 – 47%

Simvastatin:

30 – 47%Lovastati

n: 21 – 42%

Lovastatin: 21 – 42%

Page 9: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

LDLReducing Potency

2006 AWP

Two Years Ago We Said…

Low High

50%

65%

25%

0%

Crestor:45 – 63%Crestor:45 – 63%

Lipitor:Lipitor:39 – 60%39 – 60%Lipitor:Lipitor:

39 – 60%39 – 60%Vytorin:45 – 60%Vytorin:45 – 60%

Simvastatin:

30 – 47%

Simvastatin:

30 – 47%

Over 80% of Lipitor used

in low dosages.

Over 80% of Lipitor used

in low dosages.

Lovastatin: 21 – 42%

Lovastatin: 21 – 42%

Did Switchers Compromise Their Health?

??

Page 10: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

LDLReducing Potency

2006 AWP

Two Years Ago We Said…

Low High

50%

65%

25%

0%

Lipitor:Lipitor:39 – 60%39 – 60%Lipitor:Lipitor:

39 – 60%39 – 60%

Did Switchers Compromise Their Health?

Page 11: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Potency Was Generally Preserved

Page 12: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Potency Was Generally Preserved

Page 13: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Potency Was Generally Preserved

Page 14: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Potency Was Generally Preserved

Page 15: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Potency Was Generally Preserved

Page 16: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Potency Was Generally Preserved

Page 17: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Potency Was Generally Preserved

Page 18: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Key Findings

Page 19: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Beyond Trend Management

19

Page 20: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

How Does AdherenceImpact HTN Prescribing?

Drug A prescrib

ed

Same drugSame dose

Same drug Higher dose

Second drug

added

Page 21: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

How Does AdherenceImpact HTN Prescribing?

Drug A prescrib

ed

Same drugSame dose

Same drug Higher dose

Second drug

added

80 - 100%

20 - 40%

60 - 80%

40 - 60%

0 - 20%

Page 22: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Non-Adherence Adds More Drugs

Page 23: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Non-Adherence Adds More Drugs

Page 24: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Escalation Contributes to Trend

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $32•Escalated Rx: $30

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $32•Escalated Rx: $30

Medication Possession Ratio

Scenario 1

Page 25: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Escalation Contributes to Trend

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $32•Escalated Rx: $30

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $32•Escalated Rx: $30

Medication Possession Ratio

Scenario 1

Page 26: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Escalation Contributes to Trend

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $32•Escalated Rx: $30

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $32•Escalated Rx: $30

Medication Possession Ratio

Scenario 1

Page 27: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Escalation Contributes to Trend

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $32•Escalated Rx: $30

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $32•Escalated Rx: $30

Medication Possession Ratio

Waste

Scenario 1

Page 28: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Escalation Contributes to Trend

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $24•Escalated Rx: $101

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $24•Escalated Rx: $101

Medication Possession Ratio

Scenario 2

Page 29: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Escalation Contributes to Trend

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $24•Escalated Rx: $101

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $24•Escalated Rx: $101

Medication Possession Ratio

Scenario 2

Page 30: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Escalation Contributes to Trend

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $24•Escalated Rx: $101

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $24•Escalated Rx: $101

Medication Possession Ratio

Scenario 2

Page 31: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Escalation Contributes to Trend

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $24•Escalated Rx: $101

What happens when…

•Initial Rx: $24•Escalated Rx: $101

Medication Possession Ratio

Waste

Scenario 2

Page 32: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Key Findings

Page 33: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Beyond Trend Management

33

Page 34: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

CDHP Ripple Effects

Page 35: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

CDHP Ripple Effects

Page 36: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

A Common Benefit Design

Page 37: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

A Common Benefit Design

Page 38: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

A Common Benefit Design

Page 39: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

A Common Benefit Design

Page 40: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

A Common Benefit Design

Page 41: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

They Attract Different Groups

All significant at p<0.05

Traditional CDHP

Page 42: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

CDHP Ripple Effects

Page 43: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

CDHP Ripple Effects

Page 44: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

CDHP Ripple Effects

Page 45: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Adults only; CDS Matched; **p<.01

PM

PY C

laim

sTraditional Plan 2005-2006: 14% Increase in PMPY Claims

Page 46: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Adults only; CDS Matched; **p<.01

PM

PY C

laim

sTraditional Plan 2005-2006:

Generics Up, Brands Flat

Page 47: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Adults only; CDS Matched; **p<.01

PM

PY C

laim

sCDHP 2005-2006:

Slight Drop in Total Claims

Page 48: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Adults only; CDS Matched; **p<.01

PM

PY C

laim

sCDHP 2005-2006:

Generics Up, Brands Down

Page 49: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

CDHP Ripple Effects

Page 50: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

CDHP Ripple Effects

Page 51: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

CDHP Ripple Effects

Page 52: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

2006: We Were Concerned

52

*p<.05

Q1 2006 persistence rates

Page 53: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

2007: ChoiceMatters

Page 54: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

ChoiceMatters

54

Page 55: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

ChoiceMatters

55

Page 56: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

2007: ChoiceMatters Boosted Persistence

56

Reference group: CDHP with ChoiceMatters

Adjusted Odds Ratio

* = p<0.05

Bars to the green area on the left:

Choice Matters did better.

Page 57: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

2007: ChoiceMatters Boosted Persistence

57

Reference group: CDHP with ChoiceMatters

Adjusted Odds Ratio

* = p<0.05

Bars to the red area on the right:

Choice Matters did worse.

Bars to the green area on the left:

Choice Matters did better.

Page 58: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

2007: ChoiceMatters Boosted Persistence

58

Reference group: CDHP with ChoiceMatters

Adjusted Odds Ratio

* = p<0.05

Ch

oice

Matte

rs w

orse

Page 59: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

2007: ChoiceMatters Boosted Persistence

59

Reference group: CDHP with ChoiceMatters

Adjusted Odds Ratio

* = p<0.05

Ch

oice

Matte

rs w

orse

Page 60: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

2007: ChoiceMatters Boosted Persistence

60

Reference group: CDHP with ChoiceMatters

Adjusted Odds Ratio

*

* = p<0.05

Ch

oice

Matte

rs w

orse

Page 61: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

ChoiceMatters Increased Switching

61

Reference group: CDHP with ChoiceMatters

Adjusted Odds Ratio

* = p<0.05

Ch

oice

Matte

rs w

orse

Page 62: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

ChoiceMatters Increased Switching

62

Reference group: CDHP with ChoiceMatters

Adjusted Odds Ratio

*

* = p<0.05

*

**

*

*

*

Ch

oice

Matte

rs w

orse

Page 63: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

2008 Express Scripts, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Take-homes:

63

Page 64: The Ripple Effects of  Trend Management

The Ripple Effects of Trend Management

With thanks to:

Andy Behm Emily Cox Mark Eatherly

Amit Kulkarni Doug Mager

Rebecca Sedjo

Yakov Svirnovskiy