the results are in: top 5 predictions for the (most likely) future

Tomorrow’s Media, Understood Today

www.BorrellAssociates.com

The Most Likely Future

Top 5 Predictions from Borrell ‘Expert Panel’

June 2015

04/15/2023© Borrell Inc., 2015. All rights reserved

Results from Q2 2015 Delphi/Experts Panel

• 10 predictions were submitted to the Panel• Each prediction was judged on Probability and Time to Occur• These 2 factors were independent of each other• The Panel was allowed to see the results of the first round – and

then was asked to further define their answer• Peer response coupled with increased definition should work toward

consensus

With the help of the Panel, we declare the probability of these outcomes.

This presentation is ordered from least likely to occur to most.

The prediction is stated and graded on the following scaleVerified --- Probable --- Depends --- Improbable --- No Way

Another slide will go into more detail on the Panel’s reaction and our thoughts

04/15/2023© Borrell Inc., 2015. All rights reserved 3

Electronic LED billboards, currently 1% of all billboards, outnumber old

fashioned poster billboards on U.S. highways.

PROBABLE


The panel believed this to be possible, but it will not happen to well into the next decade.

The U.S. is a little behind some other countries when it comes to LED billboards and DOOH altogether. Outside of concentrated examples of LED billboards (Time Square, Las Vegas) our country has a lot of lonely highways with a lot of paper billboards. Even if the desire was there, the converting to digital would be a tactical headache.

However, the benefit is there. From programmatic buying to tailoring your message based on approaching traffic, the promise of DOOH is enticing.

Additionally, the flexibility of LED in particular can give rise to outdoor advertisements paper billboards could only dream of.

But again, it will take a while to run out all those extension cords.

44% Mid 2023Chances of it happening: Time of occurrence:

Electronic LED billboards, currently 1% of all billboards, outnumber old fashioned poster billboards on U.S. highways.

T h e B o t t o m L i n e

0-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%

4.3%

13.0%14.1%

10.9%

6.5%

10.9%

14.1%15.2%

5.4% 5.4%

Probability

Impossible Certain

1 year 2 years 3 years 4-5 years 6-7 years 8-9 years 10-14 years 15-19 years 20-24 years 25+ years

1.1% 0.0%

5.4%

19.6% 19.6%

14.1%

32.6%

4.3%2.2% 1.1%

Time to Occurrence

Far FutureImmediate


Streaming audio/video replaces banners as the format of choice for

interactive advertising on local websites.

VERIFIED


The growth of online video is phenomenal. Online video viewers have grown 34% since 2010.

Facebook now rivals YouTube in amount of video views. People are becoming increasingly familiar with videos embedded into their lives vis a vis Facebook newsfeed.

It is interesting to see the concentration of responses in the Time to Occurrence question. Over two-thirds of the panel puts this event at happening within 3-5 years. Online video production is about to explode and those media companies who can get in front of it will win.

49% Late 2018Chances of it happening: Time of occurrence:

Streaming audio/video replaces banners as the format of choice for interactive advertising on local websites.


0-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%

4.0% 4.0%

16.8%

11.9%

6.9%9.9%

21.8%

11.9%

5.9% 6.9%

Probability

Impossible Certain


2.0%

20.0%

30.0%

38.0%

8.0%

1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%

Time to Occurrence

Far FutureImmediate


The last local newspaper ceases daily printing; those remaining print four

days a week or less.

VERIFIED


Most recently, The Union-Tribune in San Diego announced they were laying off a third of its workforce. Papers everywhere are experiencing similar cost-cutting measures. The pressures on newspaper companies are well-documented and a few have already begun the hard transition to non-daily circulation. Even the Editor-in-Chief of USA today made the grim announcement that they could stop publishing a daily print edition in “five or six years.”

The days of yesterday’s news coming to you in a printed form every morning are coming to a close.


The last local newspaper ceases daily printing; those remaining print four days a week or less.


0-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%

9.2%11.2%

4.1%

12.2% 12.2%

4.1%

7.1%

18.4%

9.2%

12.2%

Probability

Impossible Certain


1.0%3.1%

8.2%

22.4%

17.3% 16.3% 17.3%

6.1%3.1%

5.1%

Time to Occurrence

Far FutureImmediate


Media fragmentation causes Congress to repeal cross-ownership rules;

media companies begin swapping newspapers, TV and radio stations to own multiple media outlets in each

market.

VERIFIED


Most of the FCC rules on cross-ownership were born 39 years ago – long before the internet, citizen journalists, and “free”, easily assessable information. Media companies have been dealing with a new competitor – one that can turn anyone into a legitimate content provider.

Media companies are no longer the giants they once were in local markets and if they desire that kind of lofty viewpoint again, they may need to stand on each other’s shoulders.

The FCC’s Incentive Auction puts further pressure on traditional media companies to appeal the cross-ownership rules if Verizon and AT&T are picking up spectrum in local markets.

The will is certainly there from media companies to do something right now, but considering we are dealing with a government agency, a timetable of 4 years seems about right.


Media fragmentation causes Congress to repeal cross-ownership rules; media companies begin swapping newspapers, TV and radio stations to own multiple media outlets in each market.


0-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%

3.2%

7.5%9.7%

8.6%

14.0%

10.8%

17.2%16.1%

8.6%

4.3%

Probability

Impossible Certain


0.0%6.5%

17.4%

44.6%

13.0%7.6% 6.5%

2.2% 1.1% 1.1%

Time to Occurrence

Far FutureImmediate


Pageviews from mobile devices, currently less than 20% of all web traffic, overtake pageviews from

desktop computers.

VERIFIED


This statement had the strongest consensus of any prediction we have released to date. It is clear that the panel feels this WILL happen – and it will happen in 3 years time.

It’s old news that mobile is the hot new media, but it is worth noting what incredible growth rates are associated with all things mobile.

Consider this, by 2011, more smartphones were being shipped than desktop & laptops combined. By 2013, the shipments of smartphones & tablets were nearly double of desktops & laptops.

And now, in one year, the percentage of pageviews in North America coming from a mobile device grew by 79%.

Mobile will officially dominate page views mid-2018.

78% Mid 2018Chances of it happening: Time of occurrence:

Page views from mobile devices, currently less than 20% of all web traffic, overtake page views from desktop computers.


0-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%

1.1% 0.0% 0.0%5.4%

0.0%4.3% 5.4%

19.6%15.2%

48.9%Probability

Impossible Certain


3.3%

23.9%

38.0%

28.3%

4.3%1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Time to Occurrence

Far FutureImmediate

04/15/2023© Borrell Inc., 2015. All rights reserved

Predict the FutureBe part of the Borrell Experts Panel

• The panel currently consists of over 300 professionals across an assortment of industries (media, digital services, retail, pureplay, etc.)

• It is an ANONYMOUS panel – polled once a quarter

• Borrell Associates seeks to have a good balance on the panel of leaders in their respective fields.

• If you would like to apply to be part of the panel, please go to the link below

https://www.borrellassociates.com/delphi/

• Upon acceptance, you will receive a welcome note




the results are in: top 5 predictions for the (most likely) future

Business

years time

electronic led billboards

lot of paper billboards

borrell expert panel

time of occurrence

delphiexperts panel

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flexibility of led