the rate of progress of evolution - simons institute for the ...nicholas pippenger the rate of...
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The Rate of Progress of Evolution
Nicholas Pippenger
20 March 2014
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Progress—Goals
I There will be goals.
I But they will not be imputed to nature.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Progress—Goals
I There will be goals.
I But they will not be imputed to nature.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 4: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Progress—Goals
I There will be goals.
I But they will not be imputed to nature.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 5: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
My Goals (for this talk)
I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of “rates”.
I But “progress” might not be proportional to time.
I Presently, functional forms.
I But don’t lump all power laws together as “polynomial”.
I Emphasize negative results.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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My Goals (for this talk)
I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of “rates”.
I But “progress” might not be proportional to time.
I Presently, functional forms.
I But don’t lump all power laws together as “polynomial”.
I Emphasize negative results.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 7: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
My Goals (for this talk)
I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of “rates”.
I But “progress” might not be proportional to time.
I Presently, functional forms.
I But don’t lump all power laws together as “polynomial”.
I Emphasize negative results.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 8: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
My Goals (for this talk)
I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of “rates”.
I But “progress” might not be proportional to time.
I Presently, functional forms.
I But don’t lump all power laws together as “polynomial”.
I Emphasize negative results.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 9: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
My Goals (for this talk)
I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of “rates”.
I But “progress” might not be proportional to time.
I Presently, functional forms.
I But don’t lump all power laws together as “polynomial”.
I Emphasize negative results.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 10: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
My Goals (for this talk)
I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of “rates”.
I But “progress” might not be proportional to time.
I Presently, functional forms.
I But don’t lump all power laws together as “polynomial”.
I Emphasize negative results.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 11: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
“The Cost of Natural Selection”
I J. B. S. Haldane, J. Genetics,1957.
I About 10—300 generations per substitution.
I J. Maynard Smith, Nature, 1968.
I Truncation.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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“The Cost of Natural Selection”
I J. B. S. Haldane, J. Genetics,1957.
I About 10—300 generations per substitution.
I J. Maynard Smith, Nature, 1968.
I Truncation.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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“The Cost of Natural Selection”
I J. B. S. Haldane, J. Genetics,1957.
I About 10—300 generations per substitution.
I J. Maynard Smith, Nature, 1968.
I Truncation.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 14: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
“The Cost of Natural Selection”
I J. B. S. Haldane, J. Genetics,1957.
I About 10—300 generations per substitution.
I J. Maynard Smith, Nature, 1968.
I Truncation.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 15: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
“The Cost of Natural Selection”
I J. B. S. Haldane, J. Genetics,1957.
I About 10—300 generations per substitution.
I J. Maynard Smith, Nature, 1968.
I Truncation.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Assumptions
I Fix n alleles (initially present in moderate amounts).
I Haploid genome.
I No mutation.
I Non-overlapping generations.
I Sexual reproduction.
I No assortative mating.
I No linkage in recombination.
I Fecundity unaffected.
I Omniscience as to genome.
I Omnipotence as to opportunity for reproduction.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Assumptions
I Fix n alleles (initially present in moderate amounts).
I Haploid genome.
I No mutation.
I Non-overlapping generations.
I Sexual reproduction.
I No assortative mating.
I No linkage in recombination.
I Fecundity unaffected.
I Omniscience as to genome.
I Omnipotence as to opportunity for reproduction.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 18: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Assumptions
I Fix n alleles (initially present in moderate amounts).
I Haploid genome.
I No mutation.
I Non-overlapping generations.
I Sexual reproduction.
I No assortative mating.
I No linkage in recombination.
I Fecundity unaffected.
I Omniscience as to genome.
I Omnipotence as to opportunity for reproduction.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 19: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Assumptions
I Fix n alleles (initially present in moderate amounts).
I Haploid genome.
I No mutation.
I Non-overlapping generations.
I Sexual reproduction.
I No assortative mating.
I No linkage in recombination.
I Fecundity unaffected.
I Omniscience as to genome.
I Omnipotence as to opportunity for reproduction.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 20: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Assumptions
I Fix n alleles (initially present in moderate amounts).
I Haploid genome.
I No mutation.
I Non-overlapping generations.
I Sexual reproduction.
I No assortative mating.
I No linkage in recombination.
I Fecundity unaffected.
I Omniscience as to genome.
I Omnipotence as to opportunity for reproduction.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 21: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Assumptions
I Fix n alleles (initially present in moderate amounts).
I Haploid genome.
I No mutation.
I Non-overlapping generations.
I Sexual reproduction.
I No assortative mating.
I No linkage in recombination.
I Fecundity unaffected.
I Omniscience as to genome.
I Omnipotence as to opportunity for reproduction.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 22: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Assumptions
I Fix n alleles (initially present in moderate amounts).
I Haploid genome.
I No mutation.
I Non-overlapping generations.
I Sexual reproduction.
I No assortative mating.
I No linkage in recombination.
I Fecundity unaffected.
I Omniscience as to genome.
I Omnipotence as to opportunity for reproduction.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 23: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Assumptions
I Fix n alleles (initially present in moderate amounts).
I Haploid genome.
I No mutation.
I Non-overlapping generations.
I Sexual reproduction.
I No assortative mating.
I No linkage in recombination.
I Fecundity unaffected.
I Omniscience as to genome.
I Omnipotence as to opportunity for reproduction.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 24: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Assumptions
I Fix n alleles (initially present in moderate amounts).
I Haploid genome.
I No mutation.
I Non-overlapping generations.
I Sexual reproduction.
I No assortative mating.
I No linkage in recombination.
I Fecundity unaffected.
I Omniscience as to genome.
I Omnipotence as to opportunity for reproduction.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 25: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Assumptions
I Fix n alleles (initially present in moderate amounts).
I Haploid genome.
I No mutation.
I Non-overlapping generations.
I Sexual reproduction.
I No assortative mating.
I No linkage in recombination.
I Fecundity unaffected.
I Omniscience as to genome.
I Omnipotence as to opportunity for reproduction.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 26: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Assumptions
I Fix n alleles (initially present in moderate amounts).
I Haploid genome.
I No mutation.
I Non-overlapping generations.
I Sexual reproduction.
I No assortative mating.
I No linkage in recombination.
I Fecundity unaffected.
I Omniscience as to genome.
I Omnipotence as to opportunity for reproduction.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
![Page 27: The Rate of Progress of Evolution - Simons Institute for the ...Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution My Goals (for this talk) I Ultimately, quantitative estimates of](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071608/614669dd7599b83a5f00349e/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Basic Step
I Choose a threshold.
I Truncate population to individuals above threshold.
I Let population regain its original size.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Basic Step
I Choose a threshold.
I Truncate population to individuals above threshold.
I Let population regain its original size.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Basic Step
I Choose a threshold.
I Truncate population to individuals above threshold.
I Let population regain its original size.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Basic Step
I Choose a threshold.
I Truncate population to individuals above threshold.
I Let population regain its original size.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Basic Step
I Choose a threshold.
I Truncate population to individuals above threshold.
I Let population regain its original size.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Conclusions
I Iteration of the basic step is essentially optimal.
I #generations ≥ C√
n.
I This is (a lower bound for) the true “cost of naturalselection”.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Conclusions
I Iteration of the basic step is essentially optimal.
I #generations ≥ C√
n.
I This is (a lower bound for) the true “cost of naturalselection”.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Conclusions
I Iteration of the basic step is essentially optimal.
I #generations ≥ C√
n.
I This is (a lower bound for) the true “cost of naturalselection”.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Conclusions
I Iteration of the basic step is essentially optimal.
I #generations ≥ C√
n.
I This is (a lower bound for) the true “cost of naturalselection”.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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What If There’s No Sex?
I #generations ≥ C n.
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What If There’s No Sex?
I #generations ≥ C n.
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Evolution As a Random Walk
I S. J. Gould, Full House, 1996.
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Evolution As a Random Walk
I S. J. Gould, Full House, 1996.
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A Random Walk on a Line
• •p
oo1−p
// •
I p = 1/2.
I At time T , most walkers are to the left of C√
T .
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A Random Walk on a Line
• •p
oo1−p
// •
I p = 1/2.
I At time T , most walkers are to the left of C√
T .
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A Random Walk on a Line
• •p
oo1−p
// •
I p = 1/2.
I At time T , most walkers are to the left of C√
T .
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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A Random Walk on a Line
• •p
oo1−p
// •
I p = 1/2.
I At time T , most walkers are to the left of C√
T .
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Objection
I Sensitive to parameter: p = 1/2.
I If p < 1/2, populations sweeps to right.
I If p > 1/2, distribution approaches exponential.
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Objection
I Sensitive to parameter: p = 1/2.
I If p < 1/2, populations sweeps to right.
I If p > 1/2, distribution approaches exponential.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Objection
I Sensitive to parameter: p = 1/2.
I If p < 1/2, populations sweeps to right.
I If p > 1/2, distribution approaches exponential.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Objection
I Sensitive to parameter: p = 1/2.
I If p < 1/2, populations sweeps to right.
I If p > 1/2, distribution approaches exponential.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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A Random Walk in a Random Environment
I Create a random environment.
I Take a random walk in that environment.
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A Random Walk in a Random Environment
I Create a random environment.
I Take a random walk in that environment.
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A Random Walk in a Random Environment
I Create a random environment.
I Take a random walk in that environment.
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The Random Environment
I An infinite tree, created by a branching process.
I Pr[two children] = a, Pr[no children] = 1− a.
I Condition on non-extinction.
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The Random Environment
I An infinite tree, created by a branching process.
I Pr[two children] = a, Pr[no children] = 1− a.
I Condition on non-extinction.
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The Random Environment
I An infinite tree, created by a branching process.
I Pr[two children] = a, Pr[no children] = 1− a.
I Condition on non-extinction.
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The Random Environment
I An infinite tree, created by a branching process.
I Pr[two children] = a, Pr[no children] = 1− a.
I Condition on non-extinction.
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◦ ◦
• •
ppppppppppppp
NNNNNNNNNNNNN
◦ ◦
1− a a
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The Random Walk
I Pr[ascend] = p.
I At a leaf, Pr[stay] = 1− p.
I At a binary node, Pr[descend left] = Pr[descend right] = 1−p2 .
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The Random Walk
I Pr[ascend] = p.
I At a leaf, Pr[stay] = 1− p.
I At a binary node, Pr[descend left] = Pr[descend right] = 1−p2 .
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The Random Walk
I Pr[ascend] = p.
I At a leaf, Pr[stay] = 1− p.
I At a binary node, Pr[descend left] = Pr[descend right] = 1−p2 .
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The Random Walk
I Pr[ascend] = p.
I At a leaf, Pr[stay] = 1− p.
I At a binary node, Pr[descend left] = Pr[descend right] = 1−p2 .
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The Random Walk
◦ ◦
•
p
OO
1−p
ZZ •
p
OO
1−p2
xxqqqqqqq1−p2
&&MMMMMMM
◦ ◦
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A Random Walk in a Random Environment
I Gould: a = 1.
I H. Kesten, Ann. Inst. H. Poincare, 1986.
I a = 1/2, p = 1/3.
I At time T , most walkers are above level C T 1/3.
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A Random Walk in a Random Environment
I Gould: a = 1.
I H. Kesten, Ann. Inst. H. Poincare, 1986.
I a = 1/2, p = 1/3.
I At time T , most walkers are above level C T 1/3.
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A Random Walk in a Random Environment
I Gould: a = 1.
I H. Kesten, Ann. Inst. H. Poincare, 1986.
I a = 1/2, p = 1/3.
I At time T , most walkers are above level C T 1/3.
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A Random Walk in a Random Environment
I Gould: a = 1.
I H. Kesten, Ann. Inst. H. Poincare, 1986.
I a = 1/2, p = 1/3.
I At time T , most walkers are above level C T 1/3.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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A Random Walk in a Random Environment
I Gould: a = 1.
I H. Kesten, Ann. Inst. H. Poincare, 1986.
I a = 1/2, p = 1/3.
I At time T , most walkers are above level C T 1/3.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Trapping
I Traps are entered with fixed probability 1/2 at each level.
I Time to escape a random trap is finite with probability one.
I But its expectation is infinite.
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Trapping
I Traps are entered with fixed probability 1/2 at each level.
I Time to escape a random trap is finite with probability one.
I But its expectation is infinite.
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Trapping
I Traps are entered with fixed probability 1/2 at each level.
I Time to escape a random trap is finite with probability one.
I But its expectation is infinite.
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Trapping
I Traps are entered with fixed probability 1/2 at each level.
I Time to escape a random trap is finite with probability one.
I But its expectation is infinite.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Trapping
I Traps are entered with fixed probability 1/2 at each level.
I Time to escape a random trap is finite with probability one.
I But its expectation is infinite.
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution
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Trapping occurs if 1/2 < a < 1 and 0 < p < (1− a)/(2− a).
1/2 • •
1/3 •
iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii
p
0 • •
1/2 a 1
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Trapping occurs if 1/2 < a < 1 and 0 < p < (1− a)/(2− a).
1/2 • •
1/3 •
iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii
p
0 • •
1/2 a 1
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At time T , most walkers are above level C T θ, where
θ ≤log 1
1−a
log 14p
.
I Trapping is different from diffusion against a wall.
I Trapping is exacerbated by positive bias.
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At time T , most walkers are above level C T θ, where
θ ≤log 1
1−a
log 14p
.
I Trapping is different from diffusion against a wall.
I Trapping is exacerbated by positive bias.
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At time T , most walkers are above level C T θ, where
θ ≤log 1
1−a
log 14p
.
I Trapping is different from diffusion against a wall.
I Trapping is exacerbated by positive bias.
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Thank You
Nicholas Pippenger The Rate of Progress of Evolution