the race to the white house. us elections the us electoral system is very much like a foot race...

THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE

US ELECTIONS

• The US electoral system is very much like a foot race between the candidates.

US ELECTIONS

• Candidates need:– Money – Publicity– Hired Gun / Architect – Campaign Expert– Staff and workers– A strategy or theme – Cater to party hard core

here since they will be the voters in primaries– A LOT OF HELP FROM OUTSIDE GROUPS – ISSUE

ADS

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

• There are 2 steps in the process of getting elected to Congress.

• 1.) Getting the Nomination of your Party

• 2.) Winning the General Election


• 1. Getting the Nomination • Each political party uses a primary or a caucus

to select their candidates• Primary = an election in which voters

registered in a political party choose the party’s nominee (Open or Closed)

• Caucus = Closed meeting of party leaders at the state and local level to select candidates


• How is the winner chosen?• We use an electoral system called Single

Member District First Past the Post Elections.• The Parties run a candidate in each district

and the winner is the one with a plurality of votes

GETTING ELECTED TO CONGRESS

• 2. What are the differences between our bicameral legislatures?

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 7

House of Representatives Senate1.) 435 members2.) Based on Population 3.) 2 year Term 4.) Entire House up for re-election every 2 years5.) Members elected from single member districts6.) Very Constituent connected

1.) 100 members2.) Equality – 2 per state 3.) 6 year term4.) Staggered elections with 1/3 up every 2 years5.) Members elected state wide6.) More nationally focused

GETTING ELECTED TO CONGRESS

• 7. So what in the name of all that is holy does the “Incumbency Advantage” mean?

• What is an incumbent?

• What is the advantage?



Figure 13.2: Percentage of Incumbents Reelected to Congress

Harold W. Stanley and Richard G. Niemi, Vital Statistics on American Politics, 1999-2000 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 2000), table 1-18; 2004 updated by Marc Siegal.

13 | 10

Incumbents Reelected to Congress

Open Secrets – Current Numbers

http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/reelect.php






INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE

• A.) What is the point of the graph?• The Incumbency Advantage – statistical

advantage incumbents have in re-election• The great likelihood that a current office

holder will be re-elected to office because of the advantages of the incumbent



• D.) Identify and explain factors that contribute to the Incumbency Advantage.


Name Recognition

Franking

Pork Barrel Legislation

Constituent Services

Partisan Redistricting - Gerrymandering

Campaign Experience

Sophomore Surge

Easier to fund raise – Campaign finance rules benefit incumbent

Access to media

Staff Assistance

Access to Gov’t research

Washington Experience


• B.) Analyze positive and negative effect that the Incumbency Advantage has on American Politics.


Positive Negative

•Stability and Continuity •More democratic – voter choice•Incremental change and not radical•More experienced political leaders•Better working relationship with Interests

•Lack of responsiveness / Accountability•Fewer Women in Congress•Fewer Minorities•Too policy specialized•Discourages challengers

THE COSTS OF SEATS IN CONGRESS

• COST OF WINNING SEAT IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES


Type of Candidate Total $ Raised Number of Candidates

Average $ Raised

Incumbent $635,589,757 420 $1,513,308

Challenger $295,852,172 1,115 $265,338

THE COSTS OF SEATS IN CONGRESS

• COST OF WINNING SEAT IN THE US SENATE


Type of Candidate Total $ Raised Number of Candidates

Average $ Raised

Incumbent $337,324,712 30 $11,244,157

Challenger $147,338,169 153 $962,994

PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING

• In order to understand this issue, you need to Play A Game!

• http://www.redistrictinggame.org/


http://www.redistrictinggame.org/

GERRYMANDERING

• This issue is one of the most egregious examples of conflict of interest in politics today. The Fox is in Charge of the Hen House!


GERRYMANDERING

• Started with Elbridge Gerry


PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING


PENNSYLVANIA DISTRICTS


PARTISAN CONTROL OF REDISTRICTING


PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

• Voters directly choose the winner of each Congressional seat.

• However, Presidential Elections are more complicated.

• Voters indirectly choose the President.• The final choice on who becomes the next US

President is made by the Electoral College.


• 3 steps to winning the White House • 1.) Getting the Nomination – The

Primaries and Caucus Stage • 2.) Campaigning at the Convention • 3.) Winning the General Election in

November


Winning the Election – What do candidates need:– Money – Publicity - TV Time – Hired Gun / Architect – Campaign Expert– Staff and workers– A strategy or theme – Come back to the middle

now to attract the voters in the middle

–More EC votes than other candidate!

US ELECTIONS CANDIDATE $ RAISED # OF VOTES AVERAGE $ PER

VOTEBarack Obama (D) $532,946,511 69,498,215 $7.39

John McCain (R) $379,006,485 59,948,240 $5.78

Ralph Nader (I) $4,496,180 738,720 $5.67

Bob Barr (L) $1,383,681 523,713 $2.57

2012 Presidential Election Totals

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance





• 1.) Getting the Nomination – The Primaries and Caucus Stage

• Cater to the Party Hardliners to win this stage since voter turnout is so low.

• Watch out for Front Loading• What is the big deal here?


2.) Campaigning at the Convention Each state sends a set number of delegates to

the convention based on the size of the sate’s population and success in past elections.

Candidate needs to select a VP running mate – “balance the ticket”.

Candidates need a majority of the delegates at the national party convention.


• 2.) Campaigning at the Convention • Party platform is written at the convention• Non-binding statement of party’s stance on the issues• Selecting a running mate – Balance the Ticket


• 3.) Winning the General Election in November• Now candidates have to come back to the

middle and be more moderate in order to attract the independent voters

• Need money / strategy / publicity and TV time / success at the debates / support from groups to run ads on TV


• The Media and TV Ads are key to success. • Daisy Commercial - http://

www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k&list=PL3072BD7925CE01CA

1988 – George Bush• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx5X3Jd8DI4• 1988 Michael Dukakis• http://

www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRPZQ3UEN_Q&list=PL3072BD7925CE01CA

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k&list=PL3072BD7925CE01CA



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx5X3Jd8DI4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx5X3Jd8DI4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRPZQ3UEN_Q&list=PL3072BD7925CE01CA



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

• In order to win the General Election and become the next US President, a candidate needs a majority of the votes cast by the Electoral College

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

• 1. What is the EC?• The group of people from each state that

selects the next US President• 2. Each state gets a number of electors based

on its population– # OF EC VOTES PER STATE = # OF SENATORS + #

OF REPRESETNATIVES IN THE US HOUSE– LOOK AT THE BACK WALL

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

• 3. Key is the Census which counts population of each state every 10 years.

• 4. How many total EC votes? 538• 5. How many EC votes needed to

win? 270 – Majority

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

• 6. How are the votes allocated (given out) to the candidates?

• 48 states use a winner-take-all system. The candidate with the most votes (PLURALITY) gets ALL of the EC Votes.

• Maine and Nebraska break it down by Congressional District (Win a district and get 1 EC Vote) and the overall winner of the state gets the 2 EC votes for the Senate seats

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

• 7. Who selects the Electors? • Each Political party has a list of electors. If that

Party’s candidate wins the state, then that group of electors gets to vote in EC.

• The Electors are SUPPOSED to vote for the candidate that wins their state but NOT absolutely required to do so.

• We do get the occasional “FAITHLESS ELECTOR”

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Reality of voting in a Presidential Election – You are voting for an elector who will then make the vote for President

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

• 8. Why do we use this system?• Give people the power to choose the US

President• Federalism – Give states some power over the

selection of the President• Sneaky Founding Fathers – They wanted it to

be a system where the US House of Reps would always have the final say!

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

• The Framers predicted that each state would select and vote for their favorite son and then no candidate would ever get a majority

• 9. What happens if no one wins a majority of the EC votes?

• The House of Reps chooses the President and the Senate chooses the VP.

• But the Framers did not see the rise of political parties

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

• 10. So what is the schedule?• General Election is on the Tuesday after the

first Monday in November (11/6/2012)• Electoral College members meet in state

capitals in mid-December to cast their votes• Then votes are opened in early January before

the first session of the new Congress. This is when the results are certified.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

• Go to 270 to win to see the results of the 2012 Presidential Election

• http://www.270towin.com/

• What would a 2016 campaign between Hillary and Christie look like

• http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_show_polling.php?mapid=bDyy

http://www.270towin.com/

http://www.270towin.com/

http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_show_polling.php?mapid=bDyy



the race to the white house. us elections the us electoral system is very much like a foot race...

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