The Quadruple Squeeze –Meeting the dual challenge of

development and sustainability

Louise Karlberg, PhD

Dual challenge – environment

and development

Non-negotiables:

• Meeting food requirements – MDG’s

• Not exceed critical sustainability thresholds

What are the remaining degrees of freedom for

humanity on planet Earth?

Human growth20/80 dilemma

Ecosystems60 % loss dilemma

Climate550/450/350

dilemma

Surprise99/1 dilemma

TThe

Quadruple

Squeeze

Critical transitions or regime shifts

From: Schellnhuber, J., 2007. PIK

Climate

Change

Ocean

acidification

Ozone

depletion

Global

Freshwater

Use

Rate of

Biodiversity

Loss

Biogeochemical

loading: Global

N & P Cycles

Atmospheric

Aerosol

Loading

Land

System

Change

Chemical

Pollution

Planetary

Boundaries

The Development Challenge

• 850 million malnourished

• 1.1 billion poor

• 70 % poor live in rural areas and depend on land/water based

ecosystem services

• Agriculture a key to poverty alleviation and socio-economic

development

• Global change and local environmental degradation eroding

capacity to achieve the MDGs

• Social and Ecological vulnerabilities on the increase

• Frequency of environmental shocks on the increase

• Disasters hit vulnerable communities hardest

• Innovations in management and governance give hope

Water limitations for food production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Available blue water (m3/cap/yr)

Tot

avai

lab

le w

ate

r (m

3/c

ap/y

r)

bc

d

a

Income (2005) Deficit Surplus

Low

1404 km3/yr

REMAINING DEFICITS

3790 Mp

407 km3/yr

FOOD EXPORT

477 Mp

Medium

487 km3/yr

FOOD IMPORT

2120 Mp

2680 km3/yr

FOOD EXPORT

1610 Mp

High

259 km3/yr

FOOD IMPORT

522 Mp

876 km3/yr

FOOD EXPORT

631 Mp

Assume irrigation expansion and

more crop per drop

Is there enough water to produce food?

-YES!

So, can trade solve the problem?

How many people live in low income

countries?

2050 scenario

Conclusions on development

challenge

Huge need to improve yields in the tropics. This

could result in trade-offs:

• N- and P- cycles (eutrophication)

• Pollution (increased pesticide, herbicide use)

• Agricultural land use expansion

• Carbon sequestration

• Down-stream fresh-water availability (and timing)

Within the boundaries of the non-

negotiables: illustrating opportunities

and trade-offs

Agriculture 20-30% of GHG emissions

(total antropogenic emissions = 9 Gt/yr)

Agricultural soils pot C. seq rate of 0.4-1.2

GtC/yr by 2050 (Lal et al)

Higher yields

Lower net GHG emissions

Less water downstream

Some questions for the future• Are current agricultural techniques sufficient to

meet the dual challenge of increased food

production and sustainability?

• How large will the future bioenergy production be,

and what are the consequences for food

production, other ecosystem services and CC

mitigation?

• What are the impacts of life-styles (consumption

of commodities, energy, transportation, diets etc) –

global distribution

Remaining sustainable while developing

• Illustrations of TRADE-OFFS and SYNERGIES

• Assessments across scales

• Assessments focussing on several sustainability criteria

(e.g. nutrients, land-use, biodiversity, carbon and water)

• A multi-sectoral approach (e.g. food, feed, fuel, fibre)

• Assessments of ecosystem services, livelihoods, resilience,

policies and institutions, etc.