the public’s brexit predictions - king's college london · brexit predictions 2018 • the...

October 2018

THEPOLICY INSTITUTE

The public’s Brexit predictions

© Policy Institute at King’s and Ipsos MORI

Brexit predictions 2018

• The Policy Institute at King’s College London, in partnership with Ipsos MORI and UK in a Changing Europe, has run a major survey of over 2,200 people aged 18-75 in Great Britain on predictions for the outcome and impact of Brexit. Many of the questions were also asked in June 2016, just before the EU Referendum, which allows us to look at how expectations have shifted.

• The large sample size for the survey also allows us to look at how party support and Leave/Remain support interacts, by identifying how predictions vary among groups of Conservative-Leave, Conservative-Remain, Labour-Leave and Labour-Remain supporters.

Note: The percentages in this document may not sum to 100% due to rounding.


The public think the most likely outcome is that the UK will leave the EU without a deal on 29 March 2019


Q: The UK is due to leave the European Union on 29 March 2019. Which of the following do you think is most likely to happen?

44% of the public think the most likely outcome on 29 March 2019 is that the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

The UK will leave the EU without a deal in place

“

”

1 The UK will leave the EU with a deal in place

“

”

2 The UK will not leave the EU“

”3

44% 29% 7%

The UK is due to leave the European Union on 29th March 2019. Which of the following do you think is most likely to happen?

Source: survey data from a representative sample of 2,206 adults aged 18-75 across the United Kingdom, conducted online between 28th September and 3rd October 2018. Data are weighted to the proÞle of the population.

© Policy Institute at King's and Ipsos MORI


The UK will leave the EU with a deal in place

The UK will leave the EU without a deal in place

The UK will not leave the EU

Conservative Leave

Conservative Remain

Labour Leave

Labour Remain

The UK is due to leave the European Union on 29th March 2019. Which of the following do you think is most likely to happen?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

35%

47%

43%

54%

53%

32%

40%

15%

2%

5%

4%

12%



Q: The UK is due to leave the European Union on 29 March 2019. Which of the following do you think is most likely to happen?

Conservative Leave supporters are most likely to think we will leave with a deal in place (53%). In stark contrast, Labour Remain supporters are more likely to think we’re heading for a ‘no-deal’ Brexit (54%).


There is little general optimism about the impact of leaving the EU, particularly on living standards, economic growth and the quality of NHS services


Only 14% of the public expect Brexit to increase their own standard of living in the next five years. The proportion of the public expecting their standard of living to decrease has risen, from 25% in June 2016 to 31% today.

Q: Please tell me whether you think your own standard of living will increase, decrease or stay the same over the next five years as a result of Britain leaving the European Union.

Increase (2016 comparator: 14%)

1 Stay about the same (2016 comparator: 51%)

2 Decrease (2016 comparator: 25%)

3Do you think your own standard of living will increase, decrease or stay the same over the next Þve years as a result of Britain leaving the

14% 46% 31%



2018


39% of the public expect the UK economic growth rate to decrease as a result of Brexit. Neither a majority of Leave nor Remain voters thinks Brexit will result in an increase in economic growth.

Increase (Overall: 22%)

1 Stay about the same (Overall: 26%)

2 Decrease (Overall: 39%)

3

9% 17% 64%

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Remain

Leave 38% 35% 17%

Q: Please tell me whether you think the rate the UK economy grows will increase, decrease or stay the same over the next five years?


People are split on the impact of Brexit on the quality of NHS services, with 34% expecting it to decrease. The proportion of the public with this expectation has doubled since 2016.

Q: Please tell me whether you think the quality of the NHS will increase, decrease or stay the same over the next five years as a result of Britain leaving the European Union?

Do you think the quality of the NHS will increase, decrease or stay the same over the next Þve years as a result of Britain leaving the European Union?

Source: survey data from a representative sample of 2,206 adults aged 18-75 across the United Kingdom, conducted online between 28th September and 3rd

October 2018. Data are weighted to the proÞle of the population.


0

10

20

30

40

50

2018 2016

30%

23%

34%

43%

34%

17%

Do you think the quality of the NHS will increase, decrease or stay the same over the next Þve years as a result of Britain leaving the European Union?

Source: survey data from a representative sample of 2,206 adults aged 18-75 across the United Kingdom, conducted online between 28th September and 3rd

October 2018. Data are weighted to the proÞle of the population.


0

10

20

30

40

50

2018 2016

30%

23%

34%

43%

34%

17%

Increase Stay about the same Decrease


Q: For each of the following, please tell me whether you think it will increase, decrease or stay the same over the next five years as a result of Britain leaving the EU...

For each of the following, please tell me whether you think it will increase, decrease or stay the same over the next Þve years as a result of Britain leaving the EU...



Number of unemployed people in the UK

29% 40% 21% 11%

26% 41% 22% 11%

22% 55% 10% 13%

0 20 40 60 80 100

Number of immigrants coming into the UK from countries

outside the EU

Risk of a major terrorist attack carried out in the UK

Number of immigrants coming to the UK from EU countries 9% 20% 60% 10%

Increase Stay about the same Decrease Don't know

This is how people expect a range of other issues to change over the next five years as a result of Brexit...


Q: For each of the following, please tell me whether you think it will increase, decrease or stay the same over the next five years as a result of Britain leaving the EU...

The public expects to see a greater shift away from exports to and investment from EU member states after Britain leaves the EU.

Do you think UK exports and investment into the UK will increase, decrease or stay the same over the next Þve years?



Direct investment into the UK from countries outside the EU

36% 32% 20% 12%

8% 22% 57% 13%

46% 29% 14% 11%

Increase

Stay about the same

Decrease

Don't know

0 20 40 60 80 100

Direct investment into the UK from EU member states

UK exports to countries outside the EU

UK exports to EU member states

8% 30% 50% 12%

For each of the following, please tell me whether you think it will increase, decrease or stay the same over the next Þve years as a result of Britain leaving the EU...



Number of unemployed people in the UK

29% 40% 21% 11%

26% 41% 22% 11%

22% 55% 10% 13%

0 20 40 60 80 100

Number of immigrants coming into the UK from countries

outside the EU

Risk of a major terrorist attack carried out in the UK

Number of immigrants coming to the UK from EU countries 9% 20% 60% 10%

Increase Stay about the same Decrease Don't know


For more information, please contact:

Bobby [email protected]

@BobbyDuffyKings

THEPOLICY INSTITUTE

mailto:bobby.duffy%40kcl.ac.uk?subject=

the public’s brexit predictions - king's college london · brexit predictions 2018 • the...

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