the public perception of risk risk in uncertainty seminar 13th november 2002 vince jenkins
TRANSCRIPT
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THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF RISK
Risk in Uncertainty Seminar
13th November 2002
Vince Jenkins
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WHAT DO WE MEAN?
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Risk Perception & Aversion
• What is risk as far as
• You are concerned
• The public are concerned
• Your clients are concerned
• Owners~shareholders are concerned
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Risks Perceived by Different Groups of People Factor 1: Unknown risk
Factor 2: Dread risk
DNA RESEARCH
EARTH ORBITING SATELLITE
SPACE EXPLORATION
LASERSNUCLEAR POWER
LAETRIL
CHEMICAL DISINFECTANTS
NON-NUCLEAR ELECTRIC POWER
HYDROELECTRIC POWER
FOOD PRESERVATIVES
ASBESTOS
LIQUID NATURAL GAS
CHEMICAL FERTILIZERS
RADIATION THERAPY
FOSSIL ELECTRIC POWERPESTICIDES
HERBICIDES
DDT
SKYSCRAPERS SST
NERVE GAS
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
NATIONAL DEFENCE
TERRORISM
CRIME
WARFAREDYNAMITE
HANDGUNS
FIREFIGHTING
POLICE WORK
HEROINSMOKING
ANPHETAMINES
BARBITURATES
MORPHINE
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
OPEN-HEART SURGERY
JUMBO JETS
BRIDGES
SOLAR ELECTRIC POWER
FOOD IRRADIATION
SODIUM NITRATE
FOOD COLOURING
SACCHARINE
COSMETICS
HAIR DYES
ASPIRIN
MICROWAVE OVENS
FLUORESCENT LIGHTS
WATER FLUORIDATION
ORAL CONTRACEPTIVES
DIAGNOSTIC X-RAYS
CHRISTMAS TREE LIGHTS
PRESCRIPTION DRUGSVACCINATIONS
JOGGING
SUNBATHING
HOME APPLIANCES
ANTIBIOTICSHOME GAS FURNACES
TRACTORS
SKATEBOARDS
MUSHROOM HUNTING
DARVON
VALIUM
ANESTHETICS
ROLLER COASTERS
SURGERYPREGNANCY, CHILDBIRTHSCUBA DIVING
FIREWORKS
RAILROADSGENERAL AVIATION
SURFING
MOTOR VEHICLESALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
HUNTING
MOUNTAIN CLIMBINGMOTORCYCLES
DOWNHILL SKIING
FOOTBALLBICYCLES
HOME POWER TOOLS
RECREATIONAL BOATING
SWIMMING POOLSCAFFEINE
POWER LAWN MOWERS
BOXING
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Factor 1: Unknown risk
Factor 2: Dread risk
Attitudes Towards Regulation of these Risks
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Transport Risks
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Passenger Fatality by Mode of Travel
Fatality rate per 100 million
Mode Pass kms
Car 0.40
Van 0.20
TWMV 9.70
Pedal Cycle 4.30
Foot 5.30
Bus or Coach 0.04
Rail 0.10
Water 0.60
Air 0.03
Pass journeys
4.5
2.7
100
12
5.1
0.3
2.7
25
55
Pass hours
15
6.6
300
60
20
0.1
4.8
12
15
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•Throwing yourself off a perfectly serviceable boat•Immerse yourself in an alien environment
•Your oxygen source is very finite
•Risk of the bends etc, etc
Diving involves the followingDiving involves the following:
Diving the Perception & Risk
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Mobile Telephones
• Media concern - micro wave exposure
• Sales gone down?
• Why?– Immediate benefit– No obvious & immediate detriment to you – High degree of personal control
• Long term…….?
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RISKRISK
BENEFITSBENEFITSCONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCESIMMEDIATEIMMEDIATE
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MMR - further combined - Chickenpox
• No proven link?• Reduction in
vaccinations…..• Increase of measles
& fatalities• Big industry
involved……...• Lack of effective
communication…?
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Mad Cow Disease - Beef On The Bone
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HSE: Maximum Tolerable Risk
HSE: Broadly Acceptable Risk
0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6-1-2-3-4-5-6
0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6-1-2-3-4-5-6Derived From John Paling © The Environmental Institute 1992The Paling Perspective Scale
MINISCULE RISK RISK MASSIVERISK RAPIDLY DECREASING RISK REMOTE RISK ACCEPTED RAPIDLY INCREASING RISK
Risk Comparisons - Individual Risk of Ingestion of Infectivity
10-610-710-810-910-1010-1110-12 10-5 10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 100
Death from Sporadic CJD
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 95.12% from -11.40 to -6.70
.000
.006
.012
.018
.024
0
60.5
121
181.5
242
-13.00 -11.00 -9.00 -7.00 -5.00
10,000 Trials 1 Outlier
Forecast: Log Individual Risk
95% range
Dying from Cancer
All Accidents
Road Accidents
Accidents on Railway
Ingestion of Infectivity due to DRG
Struck by lightning
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How does Business Manage?
• Pro-active in managing the impacts on their business
Financial lossFinancial loss
Bad press
What measures are important to a company
Reputation damage
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Shell - Brent Spar
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Summary
• Public perception:– Consequences vs immediate benefit
– Degree of control
– Under estimate familiar risks
– Over estimate unfamiliar ~ unpalatable risks
• Consideration in government decisions• Business must take account of the public
perspective
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DET NORSKE VERITAS
DNV - April 96 - No. 1
Further information from:Vince Jenkins, DNV, Palace House, 3 Cathedral St, London. SE1 9DE.Tel: +44 (0)20-7716-6541 Fax: +44 (0)20-7357-0961e-mail:[email protected]
An Independent Foundation – Established 1864