the public opinion landscape: election 2016

Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis

November 1, 2016

K E Y TA K E AWAYS

Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll Decoder, Real Clear Politics

Ø An average of recent polling still has Clinton on top nationally, although the race has tightened in the last week.

Ø As close as the election may have gotten, vote preference results a week out are not necessarily predictive of the final result. Mitt Romney was +1 vs. Barack Obama in comparable tracking poll results in 2012, for example, and John Kerry was +1 vs. George W. Bush a week out in 2004.

Ø Trump’s margin with independent voters is +7.3, up six points since Friday. Romney won independents by 5.

Ø Clinton's lead with female voters is +11.4 across polls. Obama won women by 11 in 2012. Men are +3.3 for Trump. Romney won men by 7.

Ø Clinton is overwhelmingly winning non-white voters (+48). But Obama won them even more resoundingly: +62.6.

PAGE 2

W H AT T O L O O K F O R O V E R T H E F I N A L W E E K

Source: NYT The UpshotPAGE 3

Ø Is there a Trump comeback?§ As the race tightens, it will be worth looking at whether Trump has made a breakthrough in

Clinton’s firewall – states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

Ø Can Clinton build a landslide?§ If the next tier of leaning-Republican states – like Missouri, Indiana, Texas, South Carolina or

Alaska – start looking like true tossups, that would be a sign of a potential landslide.

Ø Can Republicans hold the Senate?§ Republicans will probably need to win races in three of these six states to retain control of the

chamber: Pennsylvania, Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Missouri.

Ø Can the Democrats put the House in play?§ Although it’s very hard to identify a realistic path for the Democrats to get the seats they need, if

Hillary Clinton pulls away over the last week, control of the House will loom as a possibility.

B A T T L E F O R T H E P R E S I D E N C Y

C L I N TON E N J OYS L E A D O V E R T R U MP N AT IO NALLY; V E R Y F E W M AY C H A N GE V O T E

PAGE 5

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Clinton Trump Spread

HuffPost Pollster 48.2% 42.0% Clinton

+6.2Real Clear Politics 47.5% 45.3% Clinton

+2.2

Two-way RaceFour-way Race

Clinton Trump Spread

HuffPost Pollster 45.9% 40.3% Clinton

+5.6

FiveThirtyEight 45.3% 41.4% Clinton +3.9

Real Clear Politics 45.3% 43.1% Clinton

+2.2 Clinton voters

Trumpvoters

Mind made up 94% 93%Might change mind 5% 6%

Source: CBS News Poll 10/12-10/16

Is your mind made up or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

H O W T H E R A C E H A S S H I F TED N AT ION ALLY

Source: Real Clear Politics Averages of 4-way racePAGE 6

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43.144.3 44.1 44.3

46.3

44.9 45.3

41.540.6 40.9 40.6

39.039.9

43.1

Before 1st Debate

Before VP Debate

Tape Release Before 2nd Debate

Before 3rd Debate

October 24th November 1st

CLINTON

TRUMP

A L O T C A N H A P P EN O V E R T H E F I N A L W E E K W H E N I T C O M E S T O T H E P O L L S

Source: ABC News / Washington Post PollPAGE 7

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Election ABC/Post PollOne Week out

Tracking Poll Final Estimate Actual Vote

2016: Clinton – Trump 45 – 46 ? ?

2012: Obama – Romney 48 – 49 50 – 47 51 – 47

2008: Obama – McCain 52 – 45 53 – 44 53 – 46

2004: Kerry – Bush 49 – 48 48 – 49 48 – 51

2000: Gore – Bush 45 – 48 45 – 48 48 – 48

1996: Clinton – Dole 54 – 35 51 – 39 49 – 41

1992: Clinton – Bush 41 – 34 44 – 37 43 – 37

R E L ATI VELY W E A K S U P PORT F O R B O T H C L I N TON A N D T R U MP

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 20-25, 2016PAGE 8

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55%

63%

69%

68%

55%

2000 Gore

2004 Kerry

2008 Obama

2012 Obama

2016 Clinton

Democratic candidate

64%

70%

55%

67%

56%

2000 Bush

2004 Bush

2008 McCain

2012 Romney

2016 Trump

Republican candidate

% of supporters who strongly support…

‘ A N T I -CL INTO N’ V O T E A M O N G T R U MP V O T E RS S TA ND S I N C O N T RAS T T O P R I O R E L E C TIO NS

PAGE 9

63%

39%

77%

73%

57%

32%

53%

18%

24%

41%

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

64%

71%

64%

57%

45%

30%

22%

30%

39%

51%

Among Republican candidate supporters Among Democratic candidate supporters

Would you say your choice is more a vote FOR ____ or AGAINST _____?

For DemocratFor RepublicanAgainst Democrat Against Republican

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 20-25, 2016

L O O K I N G A T T H E P R E S I D E N T I A L M A P

E L E C TOR AL M A P FAV ORAB LE T O WAR D C L I N TON Likely/ Leans Clinton

(272)Likely/Leans Trump

(164)Toss-Up

(102)

CT 7

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

312

7

556

43

6

11 5

9

3

3

5

2NH 4

VT 3

3

4

38

DC 3MD 10

DE 3NJ 14

RI 4 MA 1129

6

7

10

6

10

6

86 9 16

29

91513

11

20 11

10 16

1820

85

ME2(1)

ME1(1)

S E L E CT S TATE P O L LI NG AV E R AGE S

OR

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NH

FL

VAOH

PAIA

AZ

NV

(10/21 – 10/28)Trump: 45.0%Clinton: 43.5%

(9/20 – 10/26)Trump: 41.7%Clinton: 40.3%

(10/17 – 10/30)Clinton: 45.2%Trump: 39.6%

(10/23 – 10/30)Clinton: 47.2%Trump: 41.2%

Clinton: 47.5%Trump: 42.3%(10/23 – 10/30)

Trump: 45.5%Clinton: 44.5%

(10/21 – 10/30)

(10/17 – 10/30)Trump: 46.8%Clinton: 44.3%

Clinton: 45.0%Trump: 44.0%(10/20 – 10/30) NC Clinton: 47.3%

Trump: 44.7%(10/20 – 10/30)

Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/1/16

PAGE 12

Averages are for Four-way Race

States Clinton Trump Clinton TrumpArizona 43.5% 45.0% 0 11Florida 44.5% 45.5% 0 29Iowa 40.3% 41.7% 0 6Nevada 45.0% 44.0% 6 0New Hampshire 45.2% 39.6% 4 0North Carolina 47.3% 44.7% 15 0Pennsylvania 47.2% 41.2% 20 0Ohio 44.3% 46.8% 0 18Virginia 47.5% 42.3% 13 0

Swing State Voters 58 64Leaning/Likely State Voters 235 181*

Total Overall Votes 293 245

RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES

C L I N TON L E A DS I N F I V E O F N I N E B AT TL EGRO UND S TATE S

*Indications point to Trump winning 1 Electoral vote from Maine which awards its electoral votes proportionally

H O W S W I N G S TATE S H AV E S H I F TED

Pre-First Debate (9/26)

Tape Release (10/7)

Pre-Final Debate (10/19)

Today(11/1)

Arizona Trump +3.0 Trump +1.0 Clinton +0.2 Trump +1.5

Florida Clinton +0.5 Clinton +2.4 Clinton +3.6 Trump +1.0

Iowa Trump +5.0 Trump +4.7 Trump +3.7 Trump +1.4

Nevada Trump +2.3 Clinton +1.4 Clinton +4.2 Clinton +1.0

New Hampshire Clinton +5.4 Clinton +5.0 Clinton +3.6 Clinton +5.6

North Carolina Trump +0.8 Clinton +2.6 Clinton +2.6 Clinton +2.6

Ohio Trump +2.0 Trump +1.6 Trump +0.7 Trump +2.5

Pennsylvania Clinton +1.8 Clinton +6.0 Clinton +6.8 Clinton +6.0

Virginia Clinton +6.0 Clinton +7.0 Clinton +8.7 Clinton +5.2


A N D T H O S E O T H E R R A C E S : S E N A T E & H O U S E

Source: Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, last updated Oct 21st

K E Y 2 0 1 6 S E N ATE R A C E S: O P P ORTUN ITY F O R D E M O CRAT S T O R E C A PT URE S E V E RAL S E AT S

Lean Dem (2) Pure Toss-Up (6) Lean Rep (1)

IL (Kirk- R) v. Duckworth NV (Open- D):Heck (R) v. Cortez Masto (D) FL (Rubio- R) v. Murphy

WI (Johnson- R) v. Feingold PA (Toomey- R) v. McGinty

IN (Open- R) – Young (R) v. Bayh (D)

NH (Ayotte- R) v. Hassan

MO (Blunt- R) v. Kander

NC (Burr- R) v. Ross

PAGE 16

There are five very close Senate races in which the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus model puts the margin separating the two major-party candidates within 2 percentage points: Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. All five of these races have remained close throughout October, with no sign of either candidate breaking away. If the model perfectly projects all five of these races, 2016 would be only the second election in the past 35 years in which more than three Senate races had final margins of 2 points or less.

S E L E CT S E N ATE P O L L IN G AV E RA GES

OR

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NH

AZ

FL

OHPA

WI

NV

(10/6 – 10/27)Feingold: 50.3%Johnson: 43.5%

(10/20 – 10/30)McGinty: 44.8%Toomey: 40.8%

Rubio: 49.0%Murphy: 43.4%

(10/20 – 10/27)

(10/10 – 10/27)Portman: 51.3%Strickland: 36.8%

Heck: 45.2%Cortez Masto: 44.8%

(10/20 – 10/27)

McCain: 48.3%Kirkpatrick: 38.0%

(10/2 – 10/28)

NCBurr: 46.3%Ross: 45.3%(10/20 – 10/28)


PAGE 17

MO

(10/17 – 10/30)Ayotte: 47.2%Hassan: 45.4%Blunt: 45.7%

Kander: 44.7%(10/9 – 10/26)

IN

Bayh: 44.5%Young: 40.8%

(10/3 – 10/24)

STATE DEM REP DEM REPArizona Kirkpatrick: 38.0% McCain (i): 48.3% HOLDFlorida Murphy: 43.4% Rubio (i): 49.0% HOLDIllinois Duckworth: 43.3% Kirk (i): 36.3% PICKUPIndiana Bayh:44.5% Young: 40.8% PICKUPMissouri Kander: 44.7% Blunt (i): 45.7% HOLDNevada Cortez Masto: 44.8% Heck: 45.2% PICKUPNew Hampshire Hassan: 45.4% Ayotte (i): 47.2% HOLDNorth Carolina Ross: 45.3% Burr (i): 46.3% HOLDPennsylvania McGinty: 44.8% Toomey (i): 40.8% PICKUPOhio Strickland: 36.8% Portman (i): 51.3% HOLDWisconsin Feingold: 50.3% Johnson (i): 43.5% PICKUP

Toss-Up / LeaningRaces 4 7Solid / Likely Races 9 14NotUp For Election 36 30

Total Senate Make-up 49 51

RCP POLL AVERAGE

S E N ATE C O N T ROL C O U LD G O E I T H E R WAY A S W E H E A D I N T O F I N A L W E E K

R E P U BL ICA N S E N ATE C A N DI DATES P O L L B E T TE R T H A N T R U M P I N K E Y S TAT ES

STATE SENATE CANDIDATE TRUMP DIFFERENCEArizona McCain (i): 48.3% Trump: 45.0% +3.3Florida Rubio (i): 49.0% Trump: 45.5% +3.5Illinois Kirk (i): 36.3% Trump: 33.0% +3.3Nevada Heck: 45.2% Trump: 44.0% +1.2New Hampshire Ayotte (i): 47.2% Trump: 39.6% +7.6North Carolina Burr (i): 46.3% Trump: 44.7% +1.6Pennsylvania Toomey (i): 40.8% Trump: 41.2% -0.4Ohio Portman (i): 51.3% Trump: 46.8% +4.5Wisconsin Johnson (i): 43.5% Trump 41.3% +2.2


Source: NBC / WSJ Survey, October 10-13, 2016 PAGE 20

C O N G RES SIO NAL B A L L OT I S C L O S E, A LT H OUGH M O R E V O T E RS W O U L D V O T E F O R C O N GRE SSI ONA L R E P U BLI CAN S A S A C H E C K O N H I L L ARY A N D D E M O CR ATS

If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate in your district or the Republican candidate in your district?

45% 47%

9%

Republican candidate

Democratic candidate

Other / Unsure (vol.)

Source: Fox News Poll, October 22-25, 2016

Would you be more likely to vote for…?

40%

53%

A Democratic candidate who will help Hillary Clinton and

Congressional Democrats pass their agenda

A Republican candidate who will be a check-and-balance to

Hillary Clinton and Congressional Democrats

“”Depends,” Neither,” “Other,” and “Not sure” results not shown

Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress…

Source: Cook Political Report, as of October 27, 2016 PAGE 21

H O U S E R A C E R AT ING S

The Cook Political Reportcounts just 39 seats out of 435 as competitive. Of the 39 competitive seats, 33 are held by Republicans and six are held by Democrats. That means that if Democrats swept every single competitive seat, they would win the majority. Chances of this happening though, are highly unlikely.

Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat Italicized name denotes Freshman member

P R E D I C T I O N S

W H AT T H E P U N D ITS P R E DI CT

W H AT T H E V O T E RS P R E D ICT F O R T H E P R E S I DENCY

(AP-GfK) Regardless of which candidate you personally want to win, which candidate do you think is more likely to win the presidential race in November?

Clinton Trump74% 25%

(Suffolk / USA Today) Just your best guess -- When all the votes are counted this November, who do you think is most likely to be elected president: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

(CNN-ORC) Regardless of who you support and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the presidential election this November?

(ABC / WashPost) Regardless of whom you support, who do you expect to win the election for president?




F O U R I N F I V E V O T E R S W I S H T H E E L E C TI ON W E R E O V E R

Are you generally enjoying this presidential election, or do you wish it was over?

Source: YouGov Poll, October 23-24, 2016

I wish the election

were over81%

I’m enjoying the election

12%

PAGE 25

Not sure7%

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the public opinion landscape: election 2016

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