the proprietary guidance system for equity strategy ...€¦ · ipscore composite multi-factor...
TRANSCRIPT
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Member FINRA, SIPC & MSRB
QUOIN CAPITAL, LLC
1515 MARKET STREET, SUITE 1808 PHILADELPHIA, PA 19102
TEL. 215.564.1222 FAX 215.564.1799
The Proprietary Guidance System
for Equity Strategy Performance
LARISP
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What is Polaris?.................................................................................................3
How to Use Polaris..........................................................................................7
Contact Information & Biography..........................................................14
Disclosures & Definitions...........................................................................15
PAGETable of Contents
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What is Polaris?
Polaris is an equity research guidance system that
provides a highly structured framework for detailed
equity analysis.
Regardless of style orientation, be it fundamental or
quantitative, value or growth, large or small cap,
Polaris delivers performance-focused guidance to
support your investment process.
Typically, Polaris is categorized as a quantitative research product, in contrast to fundamental research. However, we take issue with any suggestion
that Polaris is void of fundamental content. A more
appropriate categorization would be to refer to
Polaris as a stock research product, given its emphasis on stock analysis as opposed to a companyresearch product that emphasizes company analysis.
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The flexibility of Polaris enables production of output
that can be customized in accordance with client specifications.
Utilizing proprietary metrics that have been carefully developed, stocks are ranked and characterized based
on performance expectations.
While historical results do not guarantee future
performance, our back-testing indicates that Polaris has been consistently effective across every economic sector.
The system components, described further herein, are
based on our view that the principal determinants of stock price behavior are 1) valuation, 2) technical, and 3) catalytic properties.
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What is Polaris?
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Want is Polaris? – Integration of Relative-Scale and Absolute-Scale Metrics
+ =
Price & Earnings Momentum (P&EM) Model
(ABSOLUTE Dimensional Coordinates 1-16)
Valuation-Technical-Catalytic (VTC) Model
(RELATIVE Dimensional Coordinates 1-8)
4 128 15
11 167 14
1392 5
1061 3
Fundamental Outlook (-)(+)
Technical
Outlook
(-)
(+)
Valuation
Dimension
Catalytic
Dimension
Technical
Dimension
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+
+ -
+
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1 2
43
7 8
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Polaris is based on the integration of two separate multi-factor models that
combine a set of relative-scale metrics with a set of absolute-scale metrics.
The relative-scale metrics are derived from comparing valuation, technical and
catalytic properties for each stock relative to the stock’s sector peers.
The absolute-scale metrics are not based on any relative comparison and are
derived from proprietary measures of expected price momentum (technical
outlook and expected earnings momentum (fundamental outlook).
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Performance-focused
Guidance
for
Stock Selection
LARISP
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Integrated VTC and P&EM Model
(Combined RELATIVE & ABSOLUTE Metrics)
1392 5
1061 3
Fundamental Outlook (-)(+)
Technical
Outlook
(-)
(+)
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8 12 15
7 14 16
Most Attractive Stocks Least Attractive Stocks
On an Absolute Scale:
- Positive Technical Outlook
- Positive Fundamental Outlook
Relative to Peer Group Stocks:
- Favorable Valuation Properties
- Favorable Technical Properties
- Favorable Catalytic Properties
(Favorable = More Positive or Less Negative)
On an Absolute Scale:
- Negative Technical Outlook
- Negative Fundamental Outlook
Relative to Peer Group Stocks:
- Unfavorable Valuation Properties
- Unfavorable Technical Properties
- Unfavorable Catalytic Properties
(Unfavorable = Less Positive or More Negative)
Want is Polaris? – Integration of Relative-Scale and Absolute-Scale Metrics
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How to Use Polaris
When using Polaris, it is important to appreciate the distinction
between stock analysis as compared to company analysis. Polaris is
a stock analysis tool that is based on quantifiable valuation,
technical and catalytic properties. Various valuation metrics are
used that are specific to the sector associated with the stock that is
being analyzed. The technical metrics utilized are derived from daily
stock prices and trading volume. While catalytic metrics are based
on earnings estimates, estimate revisions and the corresponding
trend analysis.
There is an abundance of company analysis provided by Wall Street
research analysts that essentially amounts to a narrative or “story”
to promote an investment thesis. The intent of the Polaris output is
to provide structural guidance, as an alternative to the stories, that
is not a substitute for company analysis but is supplemental to such
analysis. What follows herein is a reference guide on how to use
the Polaris Output file which is the heart of this proprietary
framework.
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How to Use Polaris – Report Heading Descriptions
iPSCOREComposite multi-factor score based on integrated relative-scale and absolute-scale metrics.Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group average.
ABSDCOORD
Absolute-scale dimensional coordinate (1-16) based on combined measures of fundamental outlook and technical outlook. for each stock. (1 = most attractive, 16 = least attractive)
TECHOUTLK
Technical outlook for stock based on proprietary price oscillator and money flow factors. Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group average.
FUNDAOUTLK
RELDCOORD
rPSCORE
VTCAVG
VSCORE
TSCORE
CSCORE
DAYS2TR
Fundamental outlook for stock based on proprietary measure of earnings expectations. Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group average.
Relative-scale dimensional coordinate (1-8) based on 3-dimensional positioning of stock indicated by valuation, technical and catalytic scores. Also used to determine qualitative characterizations of stocks.
Composite multi-factor score based on relative-scale valuation, technical and catalytic scores.Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group median.
Sector-specific, optimally-weighted average of relative-scale valuation, technical and catalytic scores.Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group median.
Sector-specific composite score based on optimal combination of various VALUATION factors.Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group median.
Days-to-Trade - A standardized liquidity measure indicating the number of trading days required to trade a $25 million position at the average daily trading volume for the stock.
Composite multi-factor score based on optimal combination of various TECHNICAL factors.Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group median.
Composite multi-factor score based on optimal combination of various CATALYTIC factors.Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group median.
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Example – Step 1: Look up stock in company alphabetical listing
Identify sector group (based on
sector code #) and industry group.
Note composite multi-factor scores.
On the company listing page.
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Example – Step 2: Determine where stock ranks among sector peers
On the sector listing page.
Sectors are listed in order by sector code #.
Stocks within sectors are sorted by multi-factor
score. Find stock by looking for score.
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Example – Step 3: Determine where stock ranks among industry peers
On the industry listing page.
Sectors are listed in order by sector code # and
industries within sectors are listed in alphabetical order.
Stocks within industries are
sorted by multi-factor score.
Find stock by looking for score.
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Example – Step 4: Determine where stock ranks among all stocks
On the cross-sector page.
Stocks are sorted by cross-sector
multi-factor score. Find stock by
looking for multi-factor score.
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The Polaris Output file contains detailed analytics for more than 2,000 stocks.
The stocks included in our core universe have been selected from a larger
database of nearly 8,000 stocks by screening for market capitalization and
liquidity. This universe represents a full range of the most actively traded stocks
including large to small capitalization names. The output is also utilized to
produce our Weekly Sector Focus where the metrics for individual stocks areaggregated to perform sector level analysis.
Every investor is subject to their own behavioral tendencies, emotional
reactions and biases. Polaris is designed to provide stock selection decision
makers with independent, unbiased guidance by applying a disciplined
analytical approach with consistency, thus avoiding the influence of personal
biases, emotions and behavior. While historical results provide no guarantee of
future performance, our back-tests reveal that top-ranked stocks in Polaris
outperformed consistently, indicating that the framework can provide effective
stock selection guidance (see Polaris Introduction).
Our objective is to deliver differentiated, value-added research and we
accomplish this by providing proprietary analysis that is customizable and
performance-focused.
How to Use Polaris – Afterword
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Brian T. Hannon, CFA | Quoin Capital, LLC
Director of Quantitative Equity Research
1515 Market Street, Suite 1808
Philadelphia, PA 19102
Mobile: 610-504-5643
Email: [email protected] | www.quoincapital.com
Brian Hannon began his career in the chemicals industry at the Dupont Company where he
held various positions in research & development, project management, and corporate finance.
While in R&D, he was awarded a patent for his role in the development of a reverse osmosis
application for the production of semiconductor devices (Patent# 4,879,043: “Manufacture of
High Purity Hydrogen Peroxide by Using Reverse Osmosis”).
Brian made the transition to the investment management profession as a research analyst
covering chemicals industry stocks in 1992 at the DuPont Pension Fund. In 1995 he joined ASB
Capital Management where he developed the first version of the multi-factor model that
Polaris is based on. From 1997 to 2006, Brian produced an exceptional track record while
serving as a senior portfolio manager at Macquarie Investments (formerly Delaware
Investment Management) on their institutional large-cap value team. In 2006, Brian founded
Qubit Investments, LLC to launch an equity market neutral fund. He later became the Director
of Equity Research at Sturdivant & Co. starting in 2013, which was prior to assuming his
current role at Quoin Capital, LLC in 2020. Brian holds a BS degree in chemical engineering
and a BS in economics from Carnegie-Mellon University and has been a CFA charter holder
since 1991.
Contact Information & Biography
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DISCLOSURES AND DEFINITIONS
Quoin Capital, LLC and its employees, officers, and members may participate in transactions involving the securities referred to
herein (or options or other instruments related thereto), including in transactions which may be contrary to any recommendations
contained herein. This publication does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to buy of any transaction in any securities
referred to herein. Any recommendation contained herein may not be suitable for all investors. Although the information contained
in the subject report (not including disclosures contained herein) has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, the
accuracy and completeness of such information and the opinions expressed herein cannot be guaranteed. This publication and any
recommendation contained herein speak only as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Quoin Capital, LLC and
its employees shall have no obligation to update or amend any information or opinion contained herein. This publication is being
furnished to you for informational purposes only and on the condition that it will not form the sole basis for any investment decision.
Each investor must make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein based
on the tax, or other considerations applicable to such investor and its own investment strategy. By virtue of this publication, neither
Quoin Capital, LLC nor any of its employees shall be responsible for any investment decision. This report may not be reproduced,
distributed, or published without the prior consent of Quoin Capital, LLC All rights reserved by Quoin Capital, LLC This report may
discuss numerous securities, some of which may not be qualified for sale in certain states and may therefore not be offered to
investors in such states. This document should not be construed as providing investment services. Investing in non-U.S. securities
including ADRs involves significant risks such as fluctuation of exchange rates that may have adverse effects on the value or price of
income derived from the security. Securities of some foreign companies may be less liquid and prices more volatile than securities of
U.S. companies. Securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with or subject to Securities and Exchange Commission
reporting requirements; therefore, information regarding such issuers may be limited.
Research Analyst Compensation: Analyst compensation is based on: (1) the analyst’s productivity, including the quality of the
analyst’s research and the analyst’s contribution to the growth and development of our overall research effort; (2) ratings and direct
feedback from our investing clients, our sales force and from independent rating services. Quoin Capital, LLC’s Compliance and
Research Departments are responsible for establishing these compensation guidelines and for reviewing and approving senior
analyst compensation. Analyst contribution to our investment banking business is not a factor in determining analyst compensation
and compensation is not, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
Research Analyst Certification: The senior research analyst(s) certifies that the views expressed in this research report and/or financial
model accurately reflect such senior analyst's personal views about the subject securities or issuers and that no part of his or her
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in the research
report. Brian Hannon, from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities, or derivatives (including
options) thereof, of companies mentioned herein. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company,
industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information has
been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average,
S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are examples of unmanaged common stock indices used to measure and report performance of
various sectors of the stock market; direct investment in indices is not available. A complete listing of all companies covered by
Quoin Capital, LLC, Inc. and applicable research disclosures can be obtained from the Company.