the proprietary guidance system for equity strategy ...€¦ · ipscore composite multi-factor...

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Member FINRA, SIPC & MSRB QUOIN CAPITAL, LLC 1515 MARKET STREET, SUITE 1808 PHILADELPHIA, PA 19102 TEL. 215.564.1222 FAX 215.564.1799 The Proprietary Guidance System for Equity Strategy Performance LARIS P

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  • Member FINRA, SIPC & MSRB

    QUOIN CAPITAL, LLC

    1515 MARKET STREET, SUITE 1808 PHILADELPHIA, PA 19102

    TEL. 215.564.1222 FAX 215.564.1799

    The Proprietary Guidance System

    for Equity Strategy Performance

    LARISP

  • What is Polaris?.................................................................................................3

    How to Use Polaris..........................................................................................7

    Contact Information & Biography..........................................................14

    Disclosures & Definitions...........................................................................15

    PAGETable of Contents

  • What is Polaris?

    Polaris is an equity research guidance system that

    provides a highly structured framework for detailed

    equity analysis.

    Regardless of style orientation, be it fundamental or

    quantitative, value or growth, large or small cap,

    Polaris delivers performance-focused guidance to

    support your investment process.

    Typically, Polaris is categorized as a quantitative research product, in contrast to fundamental research. However, we take issue with any suggestion

    that Polaris is void of fundamental content. A more

    appropriate categorization would be to refer to

    Polaris as a stock research product, given its emphasis on stock analysis as opposed to a companyresearch product that emphasizes company analysis.

    3

  • The flexibility of Polaris enables production of output

    that can be customized in accordance with client specifications.

    Utilizing proprietary metrics that have been carefully developed, stocks are ranked and characterized based

    on performance expectations.

    While historical results do not guarantee future

    performance, our back-testing indicates that Polaris has been consistently effective across every economic sector.

    The system components, described further herein, are

    based on our view that the principal determinants of stock price behavior are 1) valuation, 2) technical, and 3) catalytic properties.

    4

    What is Polaris?

  • 5

    Want is Polaris? – Integration of Relative-Scale and Absolute-Scale Metrics

    + =

    Price & Earnings Momentum (P&EM) Model

    (ABSOLUTE Dimensional Coordinates 1-16)

    Valuation-Technical-Catalytic (VTC) Model

    (RELATIVE Dimensional Coordinates 1-8)

    4 128 15

    11 167 14

    1392 5

    1061 3

    Fundamental Outlook (-)(+)

    Technical

    Outlook

    (-)

    (+)

    Valuation

    Dimension

    Catalytic

    Dimension

    Technical

    Dimension

    -

    +

    + -

    +

    -

    6

    1 2

    43

    7 8

    5

    Polaris is based on the integration of two separate multi-factor models that

    combine a set of relative-scale metrics with a set of absolute-scale metrics.

    The relative-scale metrics are derived from comparing valuation, technical and

    catalytic properties for each stock relative to the stock’s sector peers.

    The absolute-scale metrics are not based on any relative comparison and are

    derived from proprietary measures of expected price momentum (technical

    outlook and expected earnings momentum (fundamental outlook).

  • 6

    Performance-focused

    Guidance

    for

    Stock Selection

    LARISP

    4

    Integrated VTC and P&EM Model

    (Combined RELATIVE & ABSOLUTE Metrics)

    1392 5

    1061 3

    Fundamental Outlook (-)(+)

    Technical

    Outlook

    (-)

    (+)

    11

    8 12 15

    7 14 16

    Most Attractive Stocks Least Attractive Stocks

    On an Absolute Scale:

    - Positive Technical Outlook

    - Positive Fundamental Outlook

    Relative to Peer Group Stocks:

    - Favorable Valuation Properties

    - Favorable Technical Properties

    - Favorable Catalytic Properties

    (Favorable = More Positive or Less Negative)

    On an Absolute Scale:

    - Negative Technical Outlook

    - Negative Fundamental Outlook

    Relative to Peer Group Stocks:

    - Unfavorable Valuation Properties

    - Unfavorable Technical Properties

    - Unfavorable Catalytic Properties

    (Unfavorable = Less Positive or More Negative)

    Want is Polaris? – Integration of Relative-Scale and Absolute-Scale Metrics

  • How to Use Polaris

    When using Polaris, it is important to appreciate the distinction

    between stock analysis as compared to company analysis. Polaris is

    a stock analysis tool that is based on quantifiable valuation,

    technical and catalytic properties. Various valuation metrics are

    used that are specific to the sector associated with the stock that is

    being analyzed. The technical metrics utilized are derived from daily

    stock prices and trading volume. While catalytic metrics are based

    on earnings estimates, estimate revisions and the corresponding

    trend analysis.

    There is an abundance of company analysis provided by Wall Street

    research analysts that essentially amounts to a narrative or “story”

    to promote an investment thesis. The intent of the Polaris output is

    to provide structural guidance, as an alternative to the stories, that

    is not a substitute for company analysis but is supplemental to such

    analysis. What follows herein is a reference guide on how to use

    the Polaris Output file which is the heart of this proprietary

    framework.

    7

  • 8

    How to Use Polaris – Report Heading Descriptions

    iPSCOREComposite multi-factor score based on integrated relative-scale and absolute-scale metrics.Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group average.

    ABSDCOORD

    Absolute-scale dimensional coordinate (1-16) based on combined measures of fundamental outlook and technical outlook. for each stock. (1 = most attractive, 16 = least attractive)

    TECHOUTLK

    Technical outlook for stock based on proprietary price oscillator and money flow factors. Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group average.

    FUNDAOUTLK

    RELDCOORD

    rPSCORE

    VTCAVG

    VSCORE

    TSCORE

    CSCORE

    DAYS2TR

    Fundamental outlook for stock based on proprietary measure of earnings expectations. Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group average.

    Relative-scale dimensional coordinate (1-8) based on 3-dimensional positioning of stock indicated by valuation, technical and catalytic scores. Also used to determine qualitative characterizations of stocks.

    Composite multi-factor score based on relative-scale valuation, technical and catalytic scores.Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group median.

    Sector-specific, optimally-weighted average of relative-scale valuation, technical and catalytic scores.Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group median.

    Sector-specific composite score based on optimal combination of various VALUATION factors.Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group median.

    Days-to-Trade - A standardized liquidity measure indicating the number of trading days required to trade a $25 million position at the average daily trading volume for the stock.

    Composite multi-factor score based on optimal combination of various TECHNICAL factors.Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group median.

    Composite multi-factor score based on optimal combination of various CATALYTIC factors.Positive (+) or negative (-) number indicates standard deviation units above or below peer group median.

  • 9

    Example – Step 1: Look up stock in company alphabetical listing

    Identify sector group (based on

    sector code #) and industry group.

    Note composite multi-factor scores.

    On the company listing page.

  • 10

    Example – Step 2: Determine where stock ranks among sector peers

    On the sector listing page.

    Sectors are listed in order by sector code #.

    Stocks within sectors are sorted by multi-factor

    score. Find stock by looking for score.

  • 11

    Example – Step 3: Determine where stock ranks among industry peers

    On the industry listing page.

    Sectors are listed in order by sector code # and

    industries within sectors are listed in alphabetical order.

    Stocks within industries are

    sorted by multi-factor score.

    Find stock by looking for score.

  • 12

    Example – Step 4: Determine where stock ranks among all stocks

    On the cross-sector page.

    Stocks are sorted by cross-sector

    multi-factor score. Find stock by

    looking for multi-factor score.

  • 13

    The Polaris Output file contains detailed analytics for more than 2,000 stocks.

    The stocks included in our core universe have been selected from a larger

    database of nearly 8,000 stocks by screening for market capitalization and

    liquidity. This universe represents a full range of the most actively traded stocks

    including large to small capitalization names. The output is also utilized to

    produce our Weekly Sector Focus where the metrics for individual stocks areaggregated to perform sector level analysis.

    Every investor is subject to their own behavioral tendencies, emotional

    reactions and biases. Polaris is designed to provide stock selection decision

    makers with independent, unbiased guidance by applying a disciplined

    analytical approach with consistency, thus avoiding the influence of personal

    biases, emotions and behavior. While historical results provide no guarantee of

    future performance, our back-tests reveal that top-ranked stocks in Polaris

    outperformed consistently, indicating that the framework can provide effective

    stock selection guidance (see Polaris Introduction).

    Our objective is to deliver differentiated, value-added research and we

    accomplish this by providing proprietary analysis that is customizable and

    performance-focused.

    How to Use Polaris – Afterword

  • 14

    Brian T. Hannon, CFA | Quoin Capital, LLC

    Director of Quantitative Equity Research

    1515 Market Street, Suite 1808

    Philadelphia, PA 19102

    Mobile: 610-504-5643

    Email: [email protected] | www.quoincapital.com

    Brian Hannon began his career in the chemicals industry at the Dupont Company where he

    held various positions in research & development, project management, and corporate finance.

    While in R&D, he was awarded a patent for his role in the development of a reverse osmosis

    application for the production of semiconductor devices (Patent# 4,879,043: “Manufacture of

    High Purity Hydrogen Peroxide by Using Reverse Osmosis”).

    Brian made the transition to the investment management profession as a research analyst

    covering chemicals industry stocks in 1992 at the DuPont Pension Fund. In 1995 he joined ASB

    Capital Management where he developed the first version of the multi-factor model that

    Polaris is based on. From 1997 to 2006, Brian produced an exceptional track record while

    serving as a senior portfolio manager at Macquarie Investments (formerly Delaware

    Investment Management) on their institutional large-cap value team. In 2006, Brian founded

    Qubit Investments, LLC to launch an equity market neutral fund. He later became the Director

    of Equity Research at Sturdivant & Co. starting in 2013, which was prior to assuming his

    current role at Quoin Capital, LLC in 2020. Brian holds a BS degree in chemical engineering

    and a BS in economics from Carnegie-Mellon University and has been a CFA charter holder

    since 1991.

    Contact Information & Biography

  • 15

    DISCLOSURES AND DEFINITIONS

    Quoin Capital, LLC and its employees, officers, and members may participate in transactions involving the securities referred to

    herein (or options or other instruments related thereto), including in transactions which may be contrary to any recommendations

    contained herein. This publication does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to buy of any transaction in any securities

    referred to herein. Any recommendation contained herein may not be suitable for all investors. Although the information contained

    in the subject report (not including disclosures contained herein) has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, the

    accuracy and completeness of such information and the opinions expressed herein cannot be guaranteed. This publication and any

    recommendation contained herein speak only as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Quoin Capital, LLC and

    its employees shall have no obligation to update or amend any information or opinion contained herein. This publication is being

    furnished to you for informational purposes only and on the condition that it will not form the sole basis for any investment decision.

    Each investor must make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein based

    on the tax, or other considerations applicable to such investor and its own investment strategy. By virtue of this publication, neither

    Quoin Capital, LLC nor any of its employees shall be responsible for any investment decision. This report may not be reproduced,

    distributed, or published without the prior consent of Quoin Capital, LLC All rights reserved by Quoin Capital, LLC This report may

    discuss numerous securities, some of which may not be qualified for sale in certain states and may therefore not be offered to

    investors in such states. This document should not be construed as providing investment services. Investing in non-U.S. securities

    including ADRs involves significant risks such as fluctuation of exchange rates that may have adverse effects on the value or price of

    income derived from the security. Securities of some foreign companies may be less liquid and prices more volatile than securities of

    U.S. companies. Securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with or subject to Securities and Exchange Commission

    reporting requirements; therefore, information regarding such issuers may be limited.

    Research Analyst Compensation: Analyst compensation is based on: (1) the analyst’s productivity, including the quality of the

    analyst’s research and the analyst’s contribution to the growth and development of our overall research effort; (2) ratings and direct

    feedback from our investing clients, our sales force and from independent rating services. Quoin Capital, LLC’s Compliance and

    Research Departments are responsible for establishing these compensation guidelines and for reviewing and approving senior

    analyst compensation. Analyst contribution to our investment banking business is not a factor in determining analyst compensation

    and compensation is not, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.

    Research Analyst Certification: The senior research analyst(s) certifies that the views expressed in this research report and/or financial

    model accurately reflect such senior analyst's personal views about the subject securities or issuers and that no part of his or her

    compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in the research

    report. Brian Hannon, from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities, or derivatives (including

    options) thereof, of companies mentioned herein. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company,

    industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information has

    been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average,

    S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are examples of unmanaged common stock indices used to measure and report performance of

    various sectors of the stock market; direct investment in indices is not available. A complete listing of all companies covered by

    Quoin Capital, LLC, Inc. and applicable research disclosures can be obtained from the Company.