the proposed 2005 national budget the proposed 2005 national budget senate committee on finance...
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THE PROPOSED 2005 THE PROPOSED 2005 NATIONAL BUDGETNATIONAL BUDGET
Senate Committee on FinanceSeptember 20, 2004
A Commitment to Reform A Commitment to Reform and Responsible Developmentand Responsible Development
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Presentation Outline
Developments in the 2003 and 2004 BudgetsMedium-Term Fiscal ProgramThe Proposed 2005 National Budget
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Developments in the 2003 and 2004
Budgets
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2003 and 2004 Budgets(in billion pesos)
2003 2004
CURRENT OPERATING EXP. 709.9 763.1 53.2
Personal Services 279.4 287.4 7.9 M O O E 68.5 86.9 18.5
Subsidy 22.8 4.5 (18.3) Allotment to LGUs 112.8 112.8 - Interest Payments 226.4 271.5 45.1
CAPITAL OUTLAYS 109.6 93.0 (16.6)
Infra.and Other CO 76.7 62.1 (14.6)
Equity 4.6 1.1 (3.4)
Capital Transfers to LGUs 28.3 29.8 1.5
NET LENDING 5.6 5.5 (0.1)
TOTAL OBLIGATION 825.1 861.6 36.5
PARTICULARSLevels
Inc/(Dec)
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New GAA Dept./Agencies 341.8 341.8 341.8 334.2 Support to GOCCs 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.7 Assistance to LGUs 142.6 142.6 142.6 142.6 Other SPFs 67.1 67.1 67.1 71.8 Total New GAA 555.3 555.3 555.3 553.1
Automatic Appropriation Interest Payment 223.2 230.7 271.5 271.5 Net Lending 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 RLIP 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 MVUC - - 5.9 5.9 CARP - - 5.6 5.6 Others 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 Total Automatic Appro. 248.7 256.1 308.5 308.5
Total Program 804.0 811.5 863.8 861.6
ParticularsFY 2003 Level
FY 2003 Full Reenactment
FY 2003 Reenacted
FY 2003 Original Program
FY 2004 Budget(in billion pesos)
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Status of FY 2004 Budget, as of July 2004(in billion pesos)
Releases Balance
New GAA Dept./Agencies 334.2 317.8 16.4 Support to GOCCs 4.7 4.0 0.7 Assistance to LGUs 142.6 141.1 1.5 Other SPFs 71.8 51.9 19.9 Total New GAA 553.1 514.8 38.4
Automatic Appropriation Interest Payments 271.5 149.5 122.0 Net Lending 5.5 1.5 4.0 RLIP 14.3 14.1 0.2 MVUC 5.9 1.6 4.4 CARP 5.6 5.6 0.0 Others 5.7 5.2 0.4 Total Automatic Appro. 308.5 177.5 131.0
Original Program 861.6 692.2 169.4
Additional ProgramUnprogrammed 4.5 4.5 0.0Continuing 10.2 10.2 0.0Automatic appro. 3.1 3.1 0.0
Total add'l. prog. 17.8 17.8 0.0
Total Program 879.4 710.1 169.4
ParticularsFY 2003
Reenacted
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Fiscal Performance, Jan-June 2004
Program Actual
Revenues 626.6 305.5 676.4 332.8 343.3 Disbursements 826.5 385.1 874.2 412.4 423.4
Surplus/ (Deficit) (199.9) (79.6) (197.8) (79.6) (80.1)
Jan-JuneParticulars
Full Year Jan-June
2003 Actual 2004
Full Year Program
(in billion pesos)
P80.1 billion deficit for the first semester is 0.7 percent higher than that of last year
-4.6-4.0 -4.2
-3.6 -3.6-5-4-3-2-10
2003 FullYear Actual
2003 Jan-June
2004 FullYear
Program
2004 Jan-June
Program
2004 Jan-June Actual
Deficit as Percent of GDP
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• Salary increase of uniformed personnel
• Additional requirements for pensions
• Conduct of elections in 2004
• Additional utilization of Marcos wealth for CARP
• New Payment Scheme for accounts payables for public works
Assessment: 2003 vs. 2004
(in billion pesos)
Jan-June
Actual Program Actual
Personal Services 133.4 141.8 142.5
Maintenance Expenditures 30.5 28.3 35.1
Capital Outlays 35.7 32.7 49.9
Local Govt. Units 69.8 72.2 72.0
GOCCs 1.8 2.7 2.2
IP/Net Lending 113.9 134.7 121.7
Total 385.1 412.4 423.4
Particulars
2003 2004Jan-June
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• New Payment Scheme in accounts payables for public works
• Higher allocation for CARP
• Additional requirements for the conduct of elections
Assessment: 2004 Actual vs. Program (in billion pesos)
Program Actual
Personal Services 141.8 142.5 0.7
Maintenance Expenditures 28.3 35.1 6.8
Capital Outlays 32.7 49.9 17.2
Local Govt. Units 72.2 72.0 (0.2)
GOCCs 2.7 2.2 (0.5) IP/Net Lending 134.7 121.7 (13.0)
Total 412.4 423.4 11.0
Excess/ (Shortfall
Particulars
2004Jan-June
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Assessment: 2003 vs. 2004
195.2 189.9214.3 227.1209.5 214.0
0
100
200
300
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 2004
2003 and 2004 Quarterly Disbursements
(in billion pesos)
135.0 139.0142.6169.9156.2159.8
0
100
200
300
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 and 2004 Quarterly Disbursements, Net of Interest Payments
(in billion pesos)
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Accounts payable increasingly a burden
Introduced measures to improve accounts payable management
• Direct payment system for public works installed
• Payment predictability
Assessment: Actual vs. Program (in billion pesos)
Program Actual
Current Accounts 775.9 354.7 825.9 393.3 400.7
Prior Years' Accounts 50.6 30.4 48.4 19.1 22.7
Total Disbursements 826.5 385.1 874.2 412.4 423.4
Particulars
2003 Actual 2004
Full Year Jan-JuneFull Year Program
Jan-June
End-2003 As of March 31, 2004 As of June 30, 2004Aging of Accounts 3 months 3 months 4 months
* *
* Reflects accounts payable under the new system. Comparison between the new and old system is as follows:
Full Year Program Jan-June Program Jan-June ActualOld System 48.4 30.1 33.7New System 37.4 19.1 22.7
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Fiscal Performance: Directions for S2 2004
(in billion pesos) Monthly average of non-interest spending of P50 billion (August to December) manageable
Compression of expenditures will continue in the second semester
Interest payments to go up substantially in the second semester
2003July to July Aug to
July to Dec Dec Actual Dec
Personal Services 142.8 143.8 21.8 122.0 Maintenance Expenditures 48.0 37.6 7.6 30.0 Capital Outlays 44.5 41.1 7.3 33.8 Local Govt. Units 75.0 72.4 11.8 60.6 GOCCS 13.0 2.8 1.0 1.8 interest Payments/Net lending 118.1 153.1 29.2 123.9 TOTAL 441.4 450.8 78.6 372.2
Particulars
2004
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Austerity ProgramSuspension of expenditure items such as foreign and local travels, purchase of motor vehicles, advertisements, etc.Reduction of at least 10% of services of non-permanent personnel e.g., consultants and consumption of supplies, utilities, etc.Suspension of tax expenditure subsidiesAdoption of a scheme to compensate overtime servicesStrict prioritization of capital expenditures and realignment or use of savings to fund capital programs under the 10-point agendaStrict compliance with the Government Procurement Reform Act
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Expenditure Risks for the Remainder of the Year
Increased pressure on interest payments due to interest rates and foreign exchangeNeed to reduce aging of accounts payablesAbsorption of NPC debtAdvances for guaranteed obligations
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Medium Term Fiscal Program
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Policy Objectives
Balance the national government budget in 6 yearsReduce CPSD to GDP ratio to 3% in 6 yearsReduce Public Sector Debt to GDP ratio to 90% in 6 years
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Deficit and Debt Targets, 2004-2010(Percent of GDP)
00.2
1.22.1
2.93.6
4.2
3.0
3
3.94.6
6.06
6.7
0
1
2
34
5
6
7
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
NG Deficit CPSD
58
90
78
137.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
NG Debt PS Debt
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(6)
(4)(2)
0
24
68
10
1214
16
1820
22
Expenditure 18.1 17.6 17.0 18.6 20.2 19.8 19.1 19.1 18.9 18.4 18.6 19.4 19.2 19.8 19.3 19.6 19.6 19.2 18.5
Revenue 13.0 15.1 14.1 16.5 16.8 17.7 18.0 17.7 19.9 18.9 18.9 19.4 17.4 16.1 15.3 15.3 14.1 14.6 14.4
Deficit (5.1) (2.4) (2.9) (2.1) (3.5) (2.1) (1.2) (1.5) 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 (1.9) (3.8) (4.0) (4.0) (5.3) (4.6) (4.2)
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Aquino Ramos Estrada Arroyo
National Government Fiscal National Government Fiscal Position,Position,1986-20041986-2004(percent of GDP)
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
in b
illion p
eso
s
0
5
10
15
20
25
perc
ent of GDP
in P Billion 108.1 121.6 142.5 173.5 223.5 248.7 262.0 276.9 330.2 371.9 416.1 491.8 537.4 580.4 682.5 707.1 742.0 825.1 861.6
% of GDP 17.8 17.8 17.8 18.8 20.7 19.9 19.4 18.8 19.5 19.5 19.2 20.3 20.2 19.5 20.3 19.2 18.4 19.2 18.5
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
NG Expenditures Trend, 1986-2004Aquino Ramos Estrada Arroyo
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Debt Service Burden, 1986-2004(Percent Share)
80.0
20.0 69.6
30.481.4
18.675.3
24.7 68.5
31.5
Interest Non- Interest
1986
1992
1998
2001
2004
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Economic
Social
Defense
Gen. Public Service
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Expenditures by Sector Net of Debt Burden, 1986-2004(Percent Distribution)
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BUDGET FLEXIBILITY MARGINS
PS
27%
INTEREST
28%IRA
7%
INFRA
9%
OTHERS
29%
PS
37%
INTEREST
16%
IRA
14%
INFRA
10%
OTHERS
23%
PS
33%
INTEREST
32%
IRA
16%
INFRA
6%
OTHERS
13%
1992
2004
1997
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0
5
10
15
20
25
Expenditures 17.8 17.8 17.8 18.8 20.7 19.9 19.4 18.8 19.5 19.5 19.2 20.3 20.2 19.5 20.3 19.2 18.4 19.2 18.5
Capital Outlays 3.6 3.0 2.3 3.0 3.5 4.0 3.2 3.1 3.8 4.2 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.0
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
NG Expenditures, Total vs. Capital NG Expenditures, Total vs. Capital Outlays, 1986-2004Outlays, 1986-2004(percent of GDP)(percent of GDP)
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Policy Objectives: Expenditures
1. Rationalize expenditures towards key strategic items of the 10-point agenda
2. Increase national government capital spending from 2.1 to 4.0 percent of GDP
3. Limit PS from 6.2 to 4.8 percent of GDP4. Reduce interest payments and debt
servicing as a percentage of GDP
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Expenditure Targets, 2004-2010
(Percent of GDP)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Interest Payments
Personal Services
Capital Outlays
Interest Payments 5.8 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.7 4.2 3.7
Personal Services 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8
Capital Outlays 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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Action PlanAdministrative Measures
A. Rationalization of Personal Services 1. Objectives
Deactivation of functions no longer relevant Consolidation/rationalization of duplicating
functions Strengthening of important functions
2. Mechanics Voluntary but time-bound separation
opportunity but with option to (1) remain in government service; or (2) be separated with incentives
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B. Creation of a Philippine Infrastructure FundC. Improvement of Management and Control
of GOCCs Improve operational responsibility of supervising
departments/agencies Impose moratorium on establishment of
subsidiary GOCCs pending assessment of subsidiary operations of all GOCCs
Action Plan: Administrative Measures
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D. Fully implement devolution provision of the LG Code
MFC to be primary conduit for funds (except IRA and mandated shares to LGUs)
E. Focus budget to 10-Point Agenda and increase safety nets
F. Transfer to the General Fund of all balances of dormant accounts
Action Plan: Administrative Measures
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Legislative Measures
A. Enactment of Fiscal Responsibility Bill Reduce public debt to more manageable levels
by imposing debt cap No new expenditure without new revenue
measure
B. Enactment of Reorganization Bill to conduct major reorganization
Action Plan
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C. Rationalize government retirement and pension schemes Ensure sustainability of retirement
and pension benefits
Action Plan: Legislative Measures
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D. Rationalize government compensation system Simplify position classification Improve compensation for highly
competitive posts Simplify compensation structure and
implement performance-based compensation system
E. Remove automatic guarantee provisions in certain GOCCs
Action Plan: Legislative Measures
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The Proposed 2005 National Budget
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The Proposed 2005 Budget is very conservative . . .
Core budget Represents only expenditures that can be funded by existing revenues and targeted deficit financing
Strictly adheres to the priorities of the 10-point agenda
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2005 Fiscal Program
2004 Proposed (in PB) (in percent)
Revenues 676.4 758.5 82.1 12.1
Tax 596.4 677.7 81.3 13.6 Nontax 80.0 80.8 0.8 1.0
Disbursements 874.2 943.0 68.8 7.9
COE 754.2 812.9 58.7 7.8
CO 111.0 122.5 11.4 10.3
Net Lending 9.0 7.6 (1.4) (15.5)
Deficit (197.8) (184.5) 13.3 (6.7)
Increase/(Decrease)Particulars
2005
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Reconciliation of Disbursements to Obligation Program(in billion pesos)
= P943.0 BCASH
BUDGET = P907.6 BOBLIGATION
BUDGET
Paid Current Budget
Obligations
Paid Prior Years’ Payables
P49.0 B
P894.0 B
Paid Current Budget Obligations
Unpaid Current Obligation
P894.0 B
P13.6 B
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Core Budget . . .
P 907.6 billionNominal
(%)Real (%)
Increase over 2004, including interest payments
5.3 0.8
Increase over 2004, excluding interest payments
2.7 (1.8)
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Budget Level by Expense Class (in billion pesos)
Growth Rate
Current Operating Expenditures 763.1 803.3 88.5 5.3
287.4 289.3 31.9 0.7
86.9 86.5 9.5 (0.4)
4.5 4.5 0.5 (0.1)
112.8 121.3 13.4 7.5
271.5 301.7 33.2 11.1
93.0 96.7 10.7 4.0
62.1 64.3 7.1 3.5
1.1 0.2 0.0 (83.3)
29.8 32.2 3.6 8.3
5.5 7.6 0.8 38.2
861.6 907.6 100.0 5.3
Capital Outlays
Net Lending
Allotment to LGUs
TOTAL
Infra/Other Capital Outlays
Equity
Capital Transfers to LGUs
Personal Services
Maintenance Expenditures
Subsidy
Interest Payments
2005 Particulars
2004 Adjusted Proposed 2004-2005 % share
http://www.dbm.gov.ph38
1.9
(0.4) (0.0) 8.5 Higher revenue base
30.2 Higher outstanding debt
3.7
2.2
(1.0)
2.5 Higher revenue base
2.1
46.0
Capital Outlays
Net Lending
Allotment to LGUs
TOTAL
Equity
Capital Transfers to LGUs
Personal Services
Maintenance ExpendituresSubsidy
Interest Payments
Infra/Other Capital Outlays
Annualized salaries of teachers, uniformed and military personnel, etc.
Particulars Increase/ Decrease
Remarks
Current Operating Expenditures 40.2
Increases in the BudgetIncreases in the Budget(in billion pesos)(in billion pesos)
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Budget Level by Recipient Unit(in billion pesos)
National Government lfkAgencies 433.5 437.7 1.0
Gov't-Owned and lfkControlled Corp. 11.2 12.3 10.3
Local Governments lfk(IRA, etc.) 145.4 155.9 7.2
Interest Payments 271.5 301.7 11.1
Total 861.6 907.6 5.3
Growth RatePARTICULARS2004
Adjusted2005
Program
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Budget Level by Sector (percent share)
Economic24.1%
Social32.6%
Defense5.9%
General Public
Services18.8%
Debt Service18.6%
Economic20.6%
Social28.8%
Defense5.4%
General Public
Services17.1%
Debt Service28.1%
Economic17.5%
Social28.0%
Defense4.9%
General Public
Services15.5%
Debt Service34.1%
1998
2003
2005
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Budget Level by Sector, Net of Debt Burden & IRA (percent share)
Economic23.7%
Social44.4%
Defense9.9%
General Public
Services22.0%
2003
Economic26.7%
Social41.0%
Defense9.8%
General Public
Services22.5%
2005
Economic28.4%
Social40.7%
Defense8.8%
General Public
Services22.1%
1998
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Budget Level by Region(in billion pesos)
Nationwide 142.8 15.7 -
Central Office 413.3 45.5 -
Regionalized 351.5 38.7 100.0
NCR 36.3 4.0 10.3
LUZON 146.8 16.2 41.7
Region I 22.7 2.5 6.5
CAR 10.9 1.2 3.1
Region II 15.9 1.7 4.5
Region III 30.5 3.4 8.7
Region IV 44.4 4.9 12.6
Region V 22.4 2.5 6.4
% of Regionalized
BudgetParticulars Levels
% of Total budget
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Budget Level by Region…con’t.(in billion pesos)
VISAYAS 75.2 8.3 21.4
Region VI 30.9 3.4 8.8
Region VII 22.7 2.5 6.5
Region VIII 21.5 2.4 6.1
MINDANAO 93.3 10.3 26.5
Region IX 15.2 1.7 4.3
Region X 17.4 1.9 4.9
Region XI 16.1 1.8 4.6
Region XII 15.2 1.7 4.3
CARAGA 14.9 1.6 4.3
ARMM 14.5 1.6 4.1
Total 907.6 100.0
% of Regionalized
BudgetParticulars Levels
% of Total budget
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Amount Amount
NCR 35.5 3,260 14 36.3 3,255 15
Region I 19.8 4,397 6 22.7 4,923 5
CAR 10.0 6,830 1 10.9 7,280 1
Region II 14.9 4,908 2 15.9 5,111 4
Region III 28.0 3,000 15 30.5 3,183 16
Region IV 39.6 2,983 16 44.4 3,270 14
Region V 20.6 4,085 9 22.4 4,354 10
Region VI 27.5 4,173 7 30.9 4,594 8
Per Capita Rank
RegionRankLevel Level(PB) (PB)
20052004Per Capita
Budget Level by Region Budget Level by Region Per capita allocationPer capita allocation
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Budget Level by Region Budget Level by Region Per capita allocationPer capita allocation
Amount Amount
Region VII 20.4 3,271 13 22.7 3,564 13
Region VIII 18.4 4,750 5 21.5 5,439 3
Region IX 15.0 4,786 4 15.2 4,725 6
Region X 14.7 3,794 11 17.4 4,377 9
Region XI 16.1 3,943 10 16.1 3,867 12
Region XII 14.6 4,105 8 15.2 4,152 11
CARAGA 10.9 4,836 3 14.9 6,493 2
ARMM 10.5 3,398 12 14.5 4,562 7
Per Capita Per Capita Rank
RegionRankLevel Level(PB) (PB)
20052004
http://www.dbm.gov.ph46
Top Ten Departments(in billion pesos)
DepEd (incl. Sch. Bldg. Prog.) 109.5 1 112.0 1DPWH 47.2 2 49.5 2DND 45.5 3 46.2 3DILG 43.6 4 43.9 4DAR 14.8 5 14.7 5DA (incl. AFMA-DA) 13.3 6 14.3 6DOH 10.4 7 10.3 7DOTC 10.4 8 8.0 8Judiciary 7.6 9 8.0 9DOF 6.5 10 6.8 10
PARTICULARS2004 2005
Levels Levels Rank Rank
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Sources of Programmed Appropriation(in billion pesos)
New General Appropriations
548.7 411.2 63.7 45.3
Automatic Appropriations 312.9 496.4 36.3 54.7
Interest Payments 271.5 301.7 31.5 33.2 Net Lending 5.5 7.6 0.6 0.8 Others 35.9 187.1 4.2 20.6
Total 861.6 907.6 100.0 100.0
2005 Program
PARTICULARS
Levels Percent Share
2004 Adjusted
2005 Program
2004 Adjusted
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Expenditure Policies1. Focus on the 10-Point Legacy Agenda
Among the major provisions are the following:Strengthening the agriculture, industry, services, and infrastructure sub-sectors to generate employment opportunities:
AFMA - P18.9 B CARP - P14.7 B Trade and industry - P3.0 B Tourism - P1.4 B
Using transportation networks to decentralize development to the countryside:
total infra program - P56.5 B
Education: Allocation for DepEd, SUCs, TESDA and CHED – P131.4 B P3.2 B to build 3,000 schoolbuildings increased student support from P2,500 to P4,000 (GASTPE –
P1.8 B)
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Expenditure Policies2. Encouragement of agencies to raise/generate
additional revenues to improve service delivery Retention and use of excess income (Sec. 5 of the Gen. Provisions)
The Permanent Committee may authorize agencies to retain and use income in excess of yearly targets
Clarification of items that may be constituted into Revolving Fund (Sec. 6 of the Gen. Provisions) Receipts from business-type activities, including sales of products by
agencies, maybe constituted into a Revolving Fund as maybe authorized by the Permanent Committee.
Income from rentals and fees imposed for board and lodging may be constituted into a Revolving Fund for the maintenance and other operating expenses or capital outlay requirements of said buildings and facilities.
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Expenditure Policies
3. Institutionalization of the “streamlining the bureaucracy” program
4. Full implementation of Local Government Code Proposed treatment of IRA as automatic appropriation Conversion of MDFO to MFC Transfer of DOF and DILG FAPs to MFC
5. Ensuring provision for ARMM in nationwide projects
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6. Recognition of earmarked revenues
(in billion pesos)
Revenues 26.2 732.3 758.5 Disbursements 23.6 919.4 943.0
Surplus/(Deficit) 2.6 (187.1) (184.5)
TotalSpecial
Accounts/Funds
ParticularsGeneral
Fund
Expenditure Policies
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6. Recognition of earmarked revenues…con’t.
(in billion pesos)
DPWH 6.7 6.7 DA 1.4 0.8 DOF 1.3 0.9 DOE 1.2 0.5 OEOs 1.2 1.2 Foreign Grants 0.5 0.5 Special Share to LGUs 1.9 1.9 Others 11.9 11.0
Total 26.2 23.6
Particulars Revenues Expenditures
Expenditure Policies
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Thank You
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THE PROPOSED 2005 THE PROPOSED 2005 NATIONAL BUDGETNATIONAL BUDGET