the present situation and the development trends …...- reaching the crest-line - process planning...
TRANSCRIPT
Metal Casting Conference – South Africa 2017
The Present situation and the development trends
of the worldwide foundry industry
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Gotthard Wolf,
TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Foundry Department
TU Bergakademie Freiberg | Gießerei-Institut | Bernhard-von-Cotta-Str. 4 | 09599 Freiberg | Tel.: 03731 / 39-4000 |
www.gi.tu-freiberg.de | Prof. Dr.-Ing. Gotthard Wolf| South Africa 2017
Global Foundry production in 2015
1,7 1,9 2,0 2,3 2,6 2,6
4,2 5,3 5,4
10,4 10,7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
45,6
Mill
. t
Global production of Iron and Steel castings (Mio. t)
Global production of Aluminium castings (Mio. t)
Global movement of castings production and consumption
Quelle: DGV, ifo-institut
Market trends for the foundry industry
• Global or regional markets ?
• Market volume
• tendencies
• technical trends
Global or regional casting market?
Arguments pro and contra Global Regional
Logistic
(Just in time/Shipping time/ reaction time)
-- ++
Quality costs - +
Development partnership - - ++
Cultural differences - +
Wages
Production costs Materials
Energy
++
0
0
- -
0
0
Forced local content
(castings with high valence)
+ -
Shipping costs and minimal container shipping times
USA
Europe
India
9 ct pro kg
Duration: 20 Days
10 ct pro kg
Duration: 30 Days
9 ct pro kg
Duration: 35 Days
11 ct pro kg
Duration: 30 Days
9ct pro kg
Duration: 25 Days
11 ct pro kg
Duration: 55 Days
10 ct pro kg
Duration: 40 Days
China
Brazil
9ct pro kg
Duration: 20 Days
Japan
5 ct pro kg
Duration: 10 Days
The global market for castings is splitted in 5 nearly independent regional markets
The independent regional Foundry Markets
1
2
4 3
5
The volume of the future casting market
Depends from:
• the development of the regional Gross domestic product
• the development of our main customers
• automotive
• engineering
• energy management
• construction industry
• electronics
• ship building
Depends from:
• the competitiveness of the foundries (technology, costs, services for our
customers, know how) against other technologies like forging, welding,
plastic parts etc.
1,6 1,7 1,9
1
1,6
0,9
1,9 1,6 1,5 1,6
2,4 2,6
1,6
2,4 2,6
7,3
6,5 6,5 6,2
5,8
-0,1 0,6 0,7 0,5 0,5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018*
Ch
an
ge
to
pre
vio
us y
ea
r in
%
years
Germany Europe USA China Japan
* = Projection reference: DIW Berlin, national statistical
administrative bodies
Gross domestic product
Growing markets for castings until 2020 (Basis 2015)
Europe NAFTA /
USA
Asia South
America
India
Automotive + + ++ 0 +
Mechanical
engineering
0 - + 0 0
Energy
management
+ + ++ 0 +
Construction
industry
0 + ++ + +
Electronics - 0 ++ 0 0
Ship building - 0 + 0 0
Quelle: IHS Automotiv 2016)
Global production growth of passenger cars (2013-2023)
12,9%
6,1% 10,3%
7,5% 5,4%
60,7%
-2,9% -10,0%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%D
evelo
pm
en
t o
f th
e
pro
du
ctio
n
EU Eastern North South Middle East Asia
Europe America America and Africa
Growth prognosis of the global car production (2013-2020)
Quelle: Statista, PwC)
Global production of passenger cars
Quelle: IHS Automotiv 2016
Drive types in the global production of cars (2015 to 2025)
98% 94%
79%
2% 6%
21%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
2015 2020* 2025*
Share
of p
rod
uctio
n
Antrieb durch Verbrennungsmotor** ElektroantriebDrive by combustion engine Electric drive
Global sales in mechanical engineering (Mrd. Euro)
Casted components in power generators
Source: DEWI GmbH
Casted components in wind generators
Source: DEWI GmbH
New installed capacities of wind generators in MW
Summery: Tendencies in the global foundry market
1. The regional casting markets will dominate
2. In medium-term the production sites will follow the regional key markets
3. The volume follows the regional Gross Domestic Product and the local market development
4. The European and American markets remains but the economic growth will be in Asia
5. Following the OEMs, international companies build their new foundries in the emerging
markets
6. We will see a regional casting market but global enterprises
Technical trends
• Enlargement of the added value chain
- Foundry as development partner
- Inhouse machining
• SOP-optimization of production
- reaching the Crest-line
- process planning
• Trend towards complex light weight castings
- Complex castings
- Minimization of wall thickness
• Avoiding all non added value steps in production
• Automation of foundry processes, Condition monitoring of foundry
machines, traceability of castings
Enlargement of added value chain
Development performance
• component design
• design-/component calculation
Casting production
Enlargement of in-house
production depth
• machining
• assembly of modules
Basis expectations of the customer to the development partner
• Support in component development
• ability for data handling
• guaranteed component properties and costs at the time of quotation
(series production readiness)
• process and component optimization during running serial production
• cooperation with Customers and service providers (special know-how)
• Understanding the design criterions of the product
Design criterions of a modern automatic gear box
Design criterions:
• function
• dynamic strength, durability
• fluid mechanics
• NVH-behaviour
• driving dynamics
• thermodynamic balance
• machining
SOP-optimization by specific start- and quality management with all partners of supplier chain
Days of production
Units
per day
Crest-line
Goal Additional production time
= additional costs/
loss in turnover
Quelle: VDA; 2004
Importance of process planning phase will increase
• Time frame is getting closer
• Requirements to the cost calculatory accurancy will rise
• Components will be designed closer to the ‘limits‘, so the process frame is getting closer
• Compliance of assured properties in competition to alternative production technics are
demanded intensively
• Process planning with traditional tools due to the complexity of processes and demands
on the accurancy of the planning are at their limits
New tool:
• Computer aided process-simulation
– of all subprocesses in terms of production planning
– of the total process chain in terms of sequence planning
Complex light weight castings
Quelle: Verband der Aluminiumrecycling-Industrie e.V. (VAR)
Fluid management housing
Shock tower
Minimization of wall thickness (e. g. Crankcase, grey cast iron)
Finished Dimension
3,5 mm
Finished Dimension
5,6 mm
Today Thin wall
Avoiding of non added value steps in production
Energy consumption of cast iron:
Melting: 550-800 kWh/t
Ferritizing/Perlitizing: 650-750 kWh/t Avoidable by modern process technology
Stress relief heat treatment: 350-450 kWh/t No added value!
Avoiding of non added value steps in production
(Minimizing of fettling by avoiding fins and joint flash)
as cast as cast too!
Automatic breaking of the castings from the gating system
Quelle: www.robotec.de
Automation in fettling shop
Summary: Main challenges regarding the production technology in foundries
• Expansion of the value added chain by:
- installation an extended development capacity
- integrating machining as well as assembly capacities in the foundries
• Trend towards complex lightweight construction castings
- Rise in number of patterns because assembly variants will disappear
- Demand for individual material properties
- Reduction of planning stage and start-up time
- Development of production flexibility and new logistics patterns
• High capital asset in automation and mechanical processing
• Skills and qualification of staff must grow accordingly