the potential for cost reduction - ecn · · 2006-12-21the potential for cost reduction ......
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The Potential for Cost Reduction
Hugo de Moor
Results from the EU-Photex project 2002-2003
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Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
Price ProjectionsConstant learning rate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
€/WpA LR = 0.3 GR = 20%
B LR = 0.2 GR = 20%
C LR = 0.1 GR = 20%
D LR = 0.2 GR = 10%
E Epia scenario
Price of PV Systems
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The Future of the past
JPL Silicon Module Cost Studies 1978-1985(Source: JPL, 1986)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Status 1978 (1978)
Target 1986 (1978)
SoA projection Cz 1988 (1985)
Projection Dendr. web 1992
(1985)
Mod
ule
Cos
t (Eu
r-20
00/W
p)
moduleencaps. mat.cellwafersilicon
22.9
1.52.21.6
Projections were too optimistic
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Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
Price distribution of residential PV systems BRD
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1 kWp 5 kWp 2 kWp, 2002
Euro
/kW
p
modules
inverter
mounting structure,installation material
installation labour
planning,documentation
Total
Module cost dominant
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Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
What is the potential formodule cost reduction?
There is room for cost reduction- lower materials cost
• absorber (amount, purity)• encapsulant
- higher efficiency- taking advantage of economy-of-scale
It is difficult to determine the annual cost reduction
on the basis of R&D potential
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Cost Break Down PV modules
Materials ≈ 50%
Cell EfficiencyYield
Labour
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Cost Break Down x-Si (90% of market)
Silicon wafer
Cell Efficiency
Module materials
Labour
(Note: Direct manufacturing cost do not include overhead such as R&D, Sales, Maintenance and Staff Departments)
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Analysis of cost reduction x-Si
Wafer costFeedstock 30% Scrap from IC Indusry
20 - 30 €/kg FluctuatingIndependent supply needed=> 15 - 20 €/kg Si (mg Si 2 $/kg)
Silicon content 2000 17 g/Wp2010 10 g/Wp
sheets (EFG, RGS), wafer thicknessCrystallisation cast, sheetsWafering
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Analysis of cost reduction x-Si
Cell ProcessingLabour, Equipment
Efficiency, (yield, uptime)
Plant size
Efficiency 12-14% → 15-18%2000 2010
Plant Size 1990 1 - 5 MWp 50 MWpa2000 10 - 25 MWp 300 MWpa2010 25 - 100 MWp 2 GWpa
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Effect of Plant Size on Price
0
1
2
3
4
5
2,5 25 250
MWp/Year
ECU'96/Wp
MarginModule ManufacturingCell ManufacturingSlicingGrowing
Source, Alonso et al., 1995(Music-FM study)
Analysis of cost reduction x-Si
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Analysis of cost reduction x-Si
Module AssemblyMaterials, Labour
YieldCapital12%
Labour7%
Overhead10%
Tabs6%
Glass10%
EVA20%
Tedlar17%
Frame18%
Maycock 2000
Scale-upLaminatesNew encapsulantsBack contact cells
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Analysis of sources of cost reduction
Price ForecastsMaycock 20012000 3-4 $/Wp2005 3.3 $/Wp2010 2.3 $/Wp
Epia2000 3.5 € /Wp2005 2.7 € /Wp2010 2.1 € /Wp
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Price development in Japan
Ogawa (NEDO) 12th PVSEC
Modules ($/Wp)2000 4.62005 1.72010 1.2
120 ¥ = 1$
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Cost Break Down a-Si
Cell Efficiency
Materials
Module materials
Labour
Yield
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Analysis of cost reduction a-Si
DevelopmentsEfficiency >> 5 - 8% → 8 - 14%
2000 2010
Higher throughput CVD
Low-cost TCO
Double glass → Single glass → plastic foils
Process control (uniformity, yield)
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Analysis of sources of cost reduction
Price ForecastsMaycock 20012000 2-3 $/Wp ?2005 2 $/Wp2010 1.2 $/Wp
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Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
Cost potential of inverters
• Inverter is only 10-15% of system costImportant for system performance and reliability
New concepts
Less components
Economy-of-scale
Standardisation
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Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
Cost potential of inverters
System performance and reliability
• Mismatch loss parallel (AC-module, PV Wirefree, Bus)
• Ease of installation• Duplication
Range of inverters 200 - 500 - 2000 W - 5000 W needed
- Do it yourself vs profesional installers
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Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
Inverter development
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Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
Some conclusions on cost potential• Module prices make up 70%-80% of systems
Focus for cost reduction effortsBOS: reliable, energy output
• Material costs most important part of module costsSolar Si feedstock productionLess materialLess pure material
• Higher efficiency• Economy-of-Scale
R&D and sustainable market
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Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
What will be our products ?
• Coming 20 years improving current technologyx-Si and thin-films (Film-Si, CIS)
• After 2020 new concepts are needed
• BIPV• Small power plants (grid quality)• SHS’s• Long term bulk-power > 2030