The politics of promoting social cash transfers in Zambia

Kate Pruce and Sam Hickey,IDPM, University of Manchester

DSA conference 8th September 2015

Introduction

1. The shifting political settlement in Zambia

2. Social cash transfers (SCTs) in Zambia

3. Analysis

• Shift from ‘dominant party’ system to ‘competitive clientelism’, reintroduction of multi-party elections in 1991 (Levy, 2012)

• Mainly horizontal distribution of power – inclusive coalition among elites

• Shift within settlement when Patriotic Front (PF) gained power in 2011 with populist and pro-poor claims

1. Political settlement

2. SCTs in Zambia

“Kalomo mania”– Donor driven pilot ‘replaced’ existing Public Welfare

Assistance Scheme that responded to HIV and AIDS crisis

“They’re all doctors so they love RCTs”– Concerted effort to build strong evidence-base by policy

coalition (donors and GRZ) – studies, particularly RCTs, and study tours crucial here

“Out of the blue”– Announcement by Minister of Finance of 700% increase

for SCTs in 2014 budget came ‘out of the blue’ to policy coalition

3 phases of SCTs

“You don’t know politics”

Signs of politicisation:- From bottom up – pressures from communities around

targeting and ideas about deservingness

- Local level – MPs claiming achievement, largesse

- Also top down – inclusion of specific districts/beneficiaries

Technical processes enforced but increasing pressures: “we are becoming victims of our own success”

Implementation

– Transnationalised policy coalition

– Shift of actors and incentives within the political settlement

– Ideas – cognitive and paradigmatic

3. Analysis

Policy coalition

– The formation of a transnationalised policy coalition in favour of social cash transfers has been a critical aspect of the story in Zambia: established SP as a policy if not political agenda

– While there were was an initial ‘war of position’, departure of GTZ and WB increased coordination and consistency

– This coalition (civil society tendency) has played a key role in convincing the Finance tendency using a combination of evidence-based advocacy and lobbying

– Use of a ‘broker’ with high-level political and bureaucratic connections assisted this process

Political settlement

– The more significant scale up required a shift of actors and incentives within the political settlement

– The decision was based on a combination of factors:• Mini-crisis within existing system of rent-allocation to rural

areas (agricultural subsidies overspend scandal)– SCTs established as credible alternative

• Alignment with PF’s pro-poor agenda • Personal links between policy coalition and ruling coalition

– However SCTs do not (yet) have power to displace more deeply embedded interests, policies and rent-allocation practices

Ideas?

– Need for ‘fit’ between normative ideas of ruling coalition and cognitive evidence base around poverty reduction

– SCTs have made progress in terms of the evidence base, evidence of persistent poverty despite growth also helped

– However there is little sign of broader commitment suggesting that SCTs do not tap into deeper paradigmatic ideas around humanism or modernity, or challenge elite ideas about dependency and deservingness