the political geography of america's purple states: five ...€¦ · 1 the political geography...
TRANSCRIPT
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1The Political Geography
of America's Purple States: Five Trends That Will
Decide the 2008 Election
William H. Frey and Ruy Teixeira
October 10, 2008National Press Club
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Five Trends that will Decide the 2008 Election
1. The Declining White Working Class: Still Central to Election Outcomes in Purple States
2. White College Graduates: Growing and Trending Democratic, Especially in Purple States
3. New Minority Voters: Particularly Important in Fast Growing Purple States
4. It’s the Metros, Stupid
5 Growing Areas are Mostly Trending Democratic
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Five Trends that will Decide the 2008 Election
1. The Declining White Working Class: Still Central to Election Outcomes in Purple States
2. White College Graduates: Growing and Trending Democratic, Especially in Purple States
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Size of Working Age White Working Class among Eligible Voters, 10 Purple States, 2006
54 52 50 4944 42 40 39 38
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
OH MO MI PA NV CO VA AZ FL NM
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Change in White Working Class Share among Eligible Voters, 10 Purple States, 2000-2006
-5.7
-3.1 -2.9 -2.8 -2.6-2.3 -2.2
-1.9-1.4 -1.3
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0NV AZ VA NM FL CO PA MI OH MO
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Size of Working Age White College Graduates among Eligible Voters, 10 Purple States, 2006
26
2118 17 17 17 16
14 14 14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
CO VA PA MO MI AZ OH NV FL NM
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Change in White College Graduates Share among Eligible Voters, 10 Purple States, 2000-2006
1.8
1.5 1.5
1.21 1
0.80.7
0.6
0.3
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
2
PA NV MI CO AZ OH VA FL MO NM
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Change in Democratic Margin, White Working Class Vs. White College Graduates, 1988-2004
-3
9
4
17
911
1921
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
National Purple States Ohio Florida
WWCWCG
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Change in Democratic Margin, White Working Class Vs. White College Graduates, 2004-2008
79
3
13
1817
1214
0
4
8
12
16
20
National Purple States Ohio Florida
WWCWCG
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Democratic Margin, 2004 and 2004-2008 Shift,White Working Class,
Intermountain West Vs. Midwest
-27
16
-9
4
-30-25-20-15-10-505
101520
2004 Dem Margin 2004-2008 Shift inMargin
Intermountain WestMidwest
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Democratic Margin, 2004 and 2004-2008 Shift,White College Graduates,
Intermountain West Vs. Midwest
-5
4
-17
14
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2004 Dem Margin 2004-2008 Shift inMargin
Intermountain WestMidwest
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Change in Democratic Margin, Whites with Some College Vs White Working Class as a Whole,
1988-2004
-3
9
1
17
-5
0
5
10
15
20
National Purple States
WWCWSC
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National Democratic Margins, Whites with Some College, 1988-2008
-26 -25
-8
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
01988 2004 2008
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Five Trends that will Decide the 2008 Election
3. New Minority Voters: Particularly Important in Fast Growing Purple States
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Size of Minorities among Eligible Voters, 10 Purple States, 2006
50
30 28 27 2720 19
14 14 14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
NM FL NV VA AZ CO MI OH MO PA
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Change in Minorities Share among Eligible Voters, 10 Purple States, 2000-2006
4.7
3.6
2.6 2.51.9
1.4 1.2 1.10.7
0.4
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
5
NV FL NM AZ VA PA MO CO OH MI
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Democratic Margins, Blacks and Hispanics, 2004 and 2008
77
19
87
38
0
20
40
60
80
100
Black Hispanic
20042008
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Fast-Growing States: Growth of Eligible Voters by Race, 2000-7
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Nevad
a
Arizon
aColo
rado
Florida
New M
exico
Virgini
a
Perc
ent C
hang
e
WhiteAsian/OtherBlackHispanic
27%
9%12%
13%
20%
6%
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Fast-Growing States:Minority Shares of Eligible Voters, 2007
81%
74%
72%
71%
71%
51%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Colorado
Virginia
Nevada
Florida
Arizona
New Mexico
White
Hispanic
Black
Asian
Other
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Slow-Growing States:Minority Shares of Eligible Voters, 2007
87%
87%
86%
82%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Missouri
Michigan
White
Hispanic
Black
Asian
Other
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47%
46%
35%
26%
25%
12%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Virginia
New M exico
Colorado
Arizona
Florida
Nevada
Fast-Growing States:Percent of Eligible Voters Born in Same State
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Slow-Growing States:Percent of Eligible Voters Born in Same State
76%
74%
72%
62%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Ohio
Missouri
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Five Trends that will Decide the 2008 Election
4. It’s the Metros, Stupid
5. Growing Areas are Mostly Trending Democratic
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Large Metro Shares of State Populations
Albuquerque42%New MexicoDetroit45%MichiganPhiladelphia, Pittsburgh45%PennsylvaniaCleveland, Columbus, Cinn.48%OhioDenver51%ColoradoSt. Louis, Kansas City56%MissouriMiami, Tampa, Orlando56%FloridaPhoenix66%ArizonaDC, Va. Beach, Richmond68%VirginiaLas Vegas72%Nevada
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SOUTH
NORTHEAST
NORTHWEST
COLUMBUS SUBURBS
CINCINNATI METRO
CLEVELAND SUBURBS
FRANKLIN CO.
CUYAHOGA CO.
Dayton
Toledo
Akron
Wheeling
Parkersburg
CantonLima
Huntington
Mansfield
Springfield
Weirton
Sandusky Youngstown
Counties
REGIONS
Metropolitan areas
Ohio Metropolitan Areas and Regions
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Cleveland18%
Columbus16%
Rest of State66%
Cleveland and Columbus Share of Ohio Population, 2007
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-6.9
5.94.3
16.3
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
CuyahogaCo
Suburbs Franklin Co Suburbs
Cleveland Columbus
Cleveland and Columbus Growth, 2000-7
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Eligible Voters: Key Demographic Groups
339
237
15
16
18
23
21
3557
4359
14
11
17
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CuyahogaCo
Suburbs FranklinCo
Suburbs
White Working ClassWhites Coll GradsWhites 65+Minorities
Cleveland Columbus
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Change in Eligible Voters, 2000-2006
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
MinoritiesWhites 65+Whites Coll GradsWhite Working Class
Cleveland Columbus
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SOUTH
NORTHEAST
NORTHWEST
COLUMBUS SUBURBS
CINCINNATI METRO
CLEVELAND SUBURBS
FRANKLIN CO.
CUYAHOGA CO.
Republican Margin Increase 10%+
Republican Margin Increase up to 10%
Democrat Margin Increase up to 10%
Democrat Margin Increase 10%+
Change in Presidential Voting Margin by County, 1988-2004
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SOUTH
NORTHEAST
NORTHWEST
COLUMBUS SUBURBS
CINCINNATI METRO
CLEVELAND SUBURBS
FRANKLIN CO.
CUYAHOGA CO.
4%+ Decline
Up to 4% Decline
Up to 6% Growth
6%+ Growth
Ohio Population Change by County, 2000-7
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Greeley
Pueblo
Grand Junction
Fort Collins-Loveland
WEST
EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SPRINGS
DENVER INNER
SUBURBS
DENVER OUTER
SUBURBS
DENVER OUTER SUBURBS
BOULDER
DENVER
Metropolitan areas
Counties
REGIONS
Colorado Metropolitan Areas and Regions
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Denver and Suburbs Share of Colorado Population, 2007
Denver City12%
Denver InnerSuburbs
31%
Denver Outer Suburbs
8%
Rest of State49%
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5.89.3
41.2
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Denver City DenverInnerSuburbs
Denver OuterSuburbs
Denver and Suburbs Growth, 2000-2007
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Eligible Voters in Denver: Key Demographic Groups
3722
10
1113
9
28
22
2443 40
41
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Denver City DennerInnerSuburbs
Denver OuterSuburbs
White Working Class
Whites Coll Grads
Whites 65+
Minorities
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Denver, Change in Eligible Voters, 2000-2006
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Minorities
Whites 65+
Whites Coll Grads
White Working Class
Denver cityDenver
Inner SuburbsDenver
Outer Suburbs
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WEST
EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SPRINGS
DENVERINNER
SUBURBS
DENVER OUTER
SUBURBS
DENVER OUTER
SUBURBS
BOULDER
DENVER
Republican Margin Increase 10%+
Republican Margin Increase up to 10%
Democrat Margin Increase up to 10%
Democrat Margin Increase 10%+
Change in Presidential Voting Margin by County, 1988-2004
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WEST
EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SPRINGS
DENVER INNER
SUBURBS
DENVER OUTER
SUBURBS
DENVER OUTER SUBURBS
BOULDER
DENVER
Decline
Up to 9% Growth
10% to 19% Growth
20%+ Growth
Colorado Population Growth by County, 2000-7
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SOUTH AND WEST
VIRGINIA BEACH
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
RICHMOND AND EAST
RichmondLynchburg
Roanoke
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
Charlottesville
DanvilleKingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA
Winchester, VA-WV
Harrisonburg
Blacksburg
Counties
REGIONS
Metropolitan areas
Virginia Metropolitan Areas and Regions
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15.0
4.7
9.9
4.2
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
Northern VA VA Beach Richmond-East
West
Northern Virginia and Other VA Region Growth, 2000-7
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Eligible Voters: Key Demographic Groups
23 27
1014
35 15
33 44
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Northern VA Rest of State
White Working Class
Whites Coll Grads
Whites 65+
Minorities
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0
40,000
80,000
120,000
Minorities Whites65+
WhitesColl Grads
WhiteWorkingClass
Change in Eligible Voters, Northern VA, 2000-06
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82%
76%
64%
45%
0 20 40 60 80 100
West
Richmond-East
VA Beach
Northern VA
Percent Born in South, Eligible Voters (2007?)
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SOUTH AND WEST
VIRGINIA BEACH
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
RICHMOND AND EAST
Republican Margin Increase 10%+
Republican Margin Increase up to 10%
Democrat Margin Increase up to 10%
Democrat Margin Increase 10%+
Change in Presidential Voting Margin by County, 1988-2004
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SOUTH AND WEST
VIRGINIA BEACH
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
RICHMOND AND EAST
Decline
Up to 9% Growth
10% to 19% Growth
20%+ Growth
Population Change by County in Virginia, 2000-07
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Florida Metropolitan Areas and Regions
Orlando
Ocala
JacksonvilleTallahassee
Lakeland
Gainesville
Naples
Tampa-St. Petersburg
Pensacola
Punta Gorda
Sarasota Port St. Lucie
Vero Beach
Palm Bay
Deltona-Daytona Beach
Cape Coral-Fort Myers
Panama City
Fort Walton Beach
NORTH
SOUTH
I-4 CORRIDOR
MIAMI METRO
Counties
REGIONS
Metropolitan areas
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Miami30%
I-4 Corridor36%
Rest of State34%
Miami and I-4 Corridor Share of Florida Population, 2007
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Miami and I-4 Corridor Growth, 2000-7
7.7
16.6
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
Miami I-4 Corridor
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Eligible Voters: Key Demographic Groups
50
24
15
19
13
15
2242
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Miami I-4 Corridor
White Working Class
Whites Coll Grads
Whites 65+
Minorities
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Change in Eligible Voters, 2000-6
-75,000
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
300,000
375,000
Minorities
Whites 65+
Whites Coll Grads
White Working Class
Miami Metro I-4 Corridor
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Population Change by County in Florida, 2000-07
NORTH
SOUTH
I-4 CORRIDOR
MIAMI METRO
Decline
Up to 9% Growth
10% to 19% Growth
20%+ Growth
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NORTH
SOUTH
I-4 CORRIDOR
MIAMI METRO
Change in Presidential Voting Margin, 1988-2004
Republican Margin Increase 10%+
Republican Margin Increase up to 10%
Democrat Margin Increase up to 10%
Democrat Margin Increase 10%+