the phd program in climate dynamics at george mason university prospects for an inter-disciplinary...
TRANSCRIPT
The PhD Program in Climate Dynamics
at George MasonUniversity
Prospects for anInter-disciplinary Institute
on Environment and Society
Jim KinterCenter for Ocean-Land-
Atmosphere Studies -and-
George Mason University
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
The dynamics of climate is an interesting scientific problem…
Precipitation patterns
are affected by
Atmospheric circulation(e.g. Hadley and other
meridional cells)
which is in turn influenced by
Sea surfacetemperature
Land surfacestate
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
What do we mean by “climate”?
• The statistical distribution in space (lat., long., alt.) and time of • atmospheric quantities: temperature, pressure, moisture, etc.• oceanic quantities: temperature, salinity and current• land surface quantities: soil moisture and canopy evapotranspiration• cryosphere quantities such as sea ice cover and land ice volume
• There is no unambiguous definition
• Variability on time-scales of a few days or less: “weather”
• Variability on time-scales of a few weeks or more: “climate”
•BUT … the scientific problem of predicting weather and climate is essentially a single “seamless” problem
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
Prof. Ed Lorenz Prof. J. Shukla
Two big ideas informing our work:
CHAOS PREDICTABILITY
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
ChaosSensitive dependence on initial conditionsLorenz showed that small perturbations (“ the flapping of a butterfly’s wings”) can lead to changes in the atmospheric state on all scales and that unpredictable small-scale eddies influence larger scale eddies such that the uncertainty transfers upscale Predictability of weather limited to a few weeks
Climate PredictabilityTime and space averages may be more predictableDynamics of ocean and land surface have longer intrinsic time- scales than atmosphereExternal forcing may also have long time-scales orbital variations ice ages CO2 emissions global warming
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
Climate Variability
TIME SCALE PHENOMENONDays-weeks Fronts, MCC/MCS,
(extra)tropical cyclonesWeeks-months Blocking, MJO, active/break monsoon
Months-seasons Annual cycle, NAOSeasons-years ENSO, QBOYears-decades PDO, AMO, MOC
Decades and longer Anthropogenic changes, solar cycles, ice ages, continental drift …
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
Climate Impacts
TIME SCALE PHENOMENONDays-weeks Flash floods, high winds
Weeks-months “Flash” droughts, long-term floodsMonths-seasons Heat waves, cold spells,
seasonal droughtsSeasons-years Long-term droughts, vegetation shiftsYears-decades Mega-droughts
Decades and longer Global warming, sea-level rise, ocean acidification
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
How do we address such problems? • Hypothesis testing
– Planetary-scale phenomena require planetary-scale experiments … BUT …
– You can’t mess with Mother Nature: experimenting on the only planet we have is bad idea
• Prediction– Using past data to project future conditions
• Both require sophisticated models
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
Climate Dynamics PhD ProgramAtmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences Department
George Mason Universityhttp://aoes.gmu.edu/academics/graduate/climate
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
GMU Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics
Affiliated with the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences (AOES)and the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA)
Faculty
• T. DelSole; Ph.D., Harvard Univ.• P. Dirmeyer; Ph.D., Univ. of Maryland• E. Jin; Ph.D., Seoul National Univ.• B. Huang; Ph.D., Univ. of Maryland • V. Krishnamurthy; Ph.D., M.I.T. • J. Lu; Ph.D., Dalhousie Univ.• J. Kinter; Ph.D., Princeton Univ.
B. Klinger; Ph.D., M.I.T./Woods Hole Ocean. Inst.
E. Schneider; Ph.D., Harvard Univ.
P. Schopf; Ph.D., Princeton Univ.
J. Shukla (director); Ph.D., B.H.U.; Sc.D., M.I.T
C. Stan; Ph.D., Colorado State Univ.
D. Straus (chair); Ph.D., Cornell Univ.
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter11
2002-2011 GMU Climate Dynamics PhD RecipientsDeepthi Achuthavarier
Role of the Indian and Pacific Oceans in Indian Summer Monsoon Variability
Research ScientistNASA Goddard
Whit Anderson Oceanic Sill - Overflow Systems: Investigation and Simulation with the Poseidon OGCM
Research ScientistNOAA GFDL
Kristi Arsenault (2011)
Impact of Model and Observational Error on Assimilating Snow Cover Fraction Observations
Research ScientistNASA Goddard
Susan Bates The Role of the Annual Cycle in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Research ScientistNCAR
Robert Burgman ENSO Decadal Variability in a Tropically-Forced Hybrid Coupled Model
Assistant ProfessorFlorida International University
Carlos Cruz Global Ocean Circulation Variability Induced by Southern Ocean Winds
Research ScientistNASA Goddard
Meizhu Fan Low Frequency North Atlantic SST Variability: Weather Noise Forcing and Coupled Response
Research ScientistNOAA NESDIS
Xia Feng New Methods For Estimating Seasonal Potential Climate Predictability
Post-doctoral Research ScientistGeorge Mason University
Laura Feudale Extreme Events in Europe & N. America During 1950-2003: An Observational & Modeling Study
Research ScientistARPA/OSER (Italy)
Youkyoung Jang (2011)
The Atmospheric Influence of Tropical Diabatic Heating Associated with Developing ENSO on Indian Monsoon
Post-doctoral Research ScientistFlorida International University
Liwei Jia (2011) Robust Multi-year Predictability on Continental Scales Post-doctoral Research ScientistCOLA
GMU Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter12
2002-2011 GMU Climate Dynamics PhD RecipientsDaeho Jin The Impact of ENSO on the Extratropics Post-doctoral Research Scientist
University of Maryland, College Park
Jian Li (2011) SST Diurnal Variability in the CFS and its Influence on Low Frequency Variability
Research ScientistNOAA NESDIS
Julia Manganello The Influence of SST Anomalies on Low-Frequency Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Research ScientistCOLA
Bala Narapusetty Impact Of Tropical Instability Waves In The Eastern Equatorial Pacific
Post-doctoral Research ScientistCOLA
Xiaohua Pan Impact of Mean Climate on ENSO Simulation and Prediction Post-doctoral Research ScientistUniversity of Maryland, Baltimore County
Kathy Pegion Potential Predictability of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in the NCEP CFS
Post-doctoral Research ScientistCIRES, University of Colorado
Mary Ellen Verona Observational Analysis and Numerical Simulation of 1997-1998 El Niño
deceased
Yuri Vikhliaev Decadal Extra-Tropical Pacific Variability Post-doctoral Research ScientistNASA Goddard
Li Xu (2011) Snow Cover as a Source of Climate Predictability: Mechanisms of Snow-Atmosphere Coupling
Research ScientistCOLA
Tugrul Yilmaz Improving Land Data Assimilation Performance With A Water Budget Constraint
Post-doctoral Research ScientistU.S. Department of Agriculture
GMU Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter13
• A. Badger (Dirmeyer)• G. Bucher (Boybeyi)• H. Chen (Schneider)• I. Colfescu (Schneider)• X. Feng (Lu)• A. Garuba (Klinger)
• A. Hazra (Klinger)• Y. Jin (Stan)• L. Krishnamurthy
(Krishnamurthy)• E. Lajoie (DelSole)• J. Nattala (Kinter)• E. Palipane (Lu)
• M. Scafonas (Lu)• B. Singh (Krishnamurthy)• A. Srivastava (Shukla/Huang)• E. Stofferahn (Boybeyi)• E. Swenson (Straus)• X. Yan (DelSole)
Bold = 2012/13 graduate
Current Graduate Students (Advisors)
GMU Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
Weather and Climate Pagehttp://aoes.gmu.edu/academics/graduate/climate
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
Tools for Examining Virginia Weather and Climate
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
Climate Impacts
TIME SCALE PHENOMENONDays-weeks Flash floods, high winds
Weeks-months “Flash” droughts, long-term floodsMonths-seasons Heat waves, cold spells,
seasonal droughtsSeasons-years Long-term droughts, vegetation shiftsYears-decades Mega-droughts
Decades and longer Global warming, sea-level rise, ocean acidification
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
Societal Impacts
TIME SCALE PHENOMENONDays-weeks Property and infrastructure damage;
residential displacementWeeks-months Crop loss, soil erosion
Months-seasons Human health effects: allergies, cardio-pulmonary stress, food
shortagesSeasons-years Famine, disease vector propagationYears-decades Societal unrest
(Collapse – Jared Diamond)Decades and longer Coastal city threats, species extinction
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
Drivers• America’s Climate Choices
• (USGCRP) National Climate Assessment
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
George Mason University Institute of Global Environmental and Society
Goals• To study and better understand the challenges of global environmental
change, sustainability, and resiliency in the 21st century, including the interactions among physical, biological and social systems.
• To enhance the academic programs of, and facilitate active interaction among, the several outstanding research and education efforts on environment and sustainability at George Mason University.
• To provide an objective assessment of projected environmental changes, especially for the Commonwealth of Virginia, with science-based strategies for adaptation and mitigation policy options.
Inaugural Director: J. Shukla
PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter
Mason Climate Centers
• Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
• Center for Climate Change Communication
• Center for Climate and Society
• Center for Global Ethics
Tom Lovejoy
Jim Kinter
Ed Maibach
AndrewLight