the perfect storm oklahoma’s population …no signs of growth community service council of greater...

The Perfect StormThe Perfect Storm

Oklahoma’s population …no signs of growthOklahoma’s population …no signs of growth

Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa . 2008Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa . 2008

Eight sources of the Perfect Storm

Lack of mass employment with living wage for unskilled/low-skilled persons, and growing income insecurities

Growing workforce shortage

Rapid aging of the population

Growing challenges to healthy lifestyles and access to quality health care

Continued growing immigration

Changing environmental conditionsand water insecurities

Uncertainty of future energy supply

Growing challenges to American culture and identity

Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

Key dimensions of change

Demographics

Technology

Globalization

Culture and values


Oklahoma’s Population …

No Signs of GrowthNo Signs of Growth


Definitions…

Demographic growth: Increase in the size of population by there being more births than death, and more migrants entering than leaving

Natural balance: Fundamental growth when there are more births than deaths

Size of the population increases when there are more births than deaths and more migrants arriving than departing (migratory balance)

Replacement value: Number of children per family just sufficient to keep the total population constant or 2.1 children per woman


Worldwidepopulation growth

By 2050 there will be 9 billion people on earth

3 billion will have been added just in the last 46 years

Fastest growth is in underdeveloped countries

Ethnic and religious diversity will be more important than race

U.S. population centers will be coastal

Taking a closer look…


Population growth…

What about What about Oklahoma?Oklahoma?


Oklahoma is essentially not growing

Annual average growth rate between 2000-2006 was 0.6%

Without the Hispanic population that would be reduced to 0.3%

Average natural growth rate, birth rate minus death rate, was 0.4%


Population declines in Oklahoma are widespread

Between 1940-2000, 45 counties lost population for a total of 311,363 people

Between 2000-2006, 34 counties lost population

The largest losses were in Cimarron (10.8%), Grant (9.3%), and Tillman (8.4%) Counties


Between 2000-2006, 9 more counties would have lost population except for the increases in the Hispanic population…Tulsa County was one

Tulsa’s loss would have been 0.7% without the Hispanic population which made it a 0.4% gain

Among the 43 counties that increased, 18 increased less than 4% or about 0.6% annually

In 2006, 40 counties had a population less than 25,000 …the size of the city of Owasso


-75%

-50%

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75%

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62 of Oklahoma’s 77 counties either lost population 62 of Oklahoma’s 77 counties either lost population or grew at a rate less than the state between 1950 or grew at a rate less than the state between 1950 and 2005 and 2005

All but 4 counties had less than 25,000 population in 2005


Oklahoma’s Population ShiftsOklahoma’s Population Shifts

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

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9%

USTotal

OK Total

Metro Cos.- Cleveland- Rogers- Canadian- Wagoner

NE Oklahoma- Delaware - Cherokee

Metro Cos. - Tulsa- Oklahoma

Sequoyah Co. (NE)

Metro Cos.- McClain- Comanche

- Mayes (NE) & - Marshall (SCrtl)

Metro Cos. - Logan- Creek

Only 15 counties grew at or above the state’s growth of 59% Only 15 counties grew at or above the state’s growth of 59%

All but 6 counties were over 50,000 population in 2005

Source: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

Any growth mainly occurred in Metro Areas

The Oklahoma City and Tulsa MSAs share of the state’s growth between 2000-2006 was 89%

Oklahoma’s population grew 3.6%; the OKC/Tulsa MSAs grew 5.7%

Non-urban areas grew 1.4%


Oklahoma MSAs and Non MSA Population ChangesOklahoma MSAs and Non MSA Population Changes2000-20062000-2006

# Change# Change % Change% Change

AverageAverageAnnual Annual GrowthGrowth

20002000 20062006 2000-20062000-2006 2000-20062000-2006 2000-20062000-2006

Oklahoma PopulationOklahoma Population 3,454,5103,454,510 3,579,2103,579,210 124,700124,700 3.6%3.6% 0.6%0.6%

Hispanic Hispanic 180,840 180,840 247,450 247,450 66,61066,610 36.8%36.8% 5.4%5.4%

Non-HispanicNon-Hispanic 3,273,670 3,273,670 3,331,760 3,331,760 58,09058,090 1.8%1.8% 0.3%0.3%

Oklahoma City & Tulsa MSAOklahoma City & Tulsa MSA 1,959,3001,959,300 2,070,0902,070,090 110,790110,790 5.7%5.7% 0.9%0.9%

Oklahoma City MSAOklahoma City MSA 1,097,8351,097,835 1,172,3401,172,340 74,50574,505 6.8%6.8% 1.1%1.1%

Hispanic Hispanic 74,04074,040 104,800104,800 30,76030,760 41.5%41.5% 6.0%6.0%

Non-HispanicNon-Hispanic 1,023,7951,023,795 1,067,5401,067,540 43,74543,745 4.3%4.3% 0.7%0.7%

Tulsa MSATulsa MSA 861,465 861,465 897,750897,750 36,28536,285 4.2%4.2% 0.7%0.7%

Hispanic Hispanic 39,935 39,935 60,07560,075 20,14020,140 50.4%50.4% 7.0%7.0%

Non-HispanicNon-Hispanic 821,530 821,530 837,675837,675 16,14516,145 2.0%2.0% 0.3%0.3%

Non-Urban Counties GrewNon-Urban Counties Grew 1,380,5841,380,584 1,399,9401,399,940 19,35619,356 1.40%1.40% 0.2%0.2%

Lawton MSALawton MSA 114,626114,626 109,180109,180 (5,446)(5,446) -4.75%-4.75% -0.8%-0.8%


Oklahoma County & Tulsa Oklahoma County & Tulsa County Population ChangesCounty Population Changes2000-20062000-2006

# Change % Change

Average Annual Growth

2000 2006 2000-2006 2000-2006 2000-2006

Oklahoma CountyOklahoma County 661,741 661,741 691,266 691,266 29,52529,525 4.5%4.5% 0.7%0.7%


Non-HispanicNon-Hispanic 603,796 603,796 608,935 608,935 5,1395,139 0.9%0.9% 0.1%0.1%

Tulsa CountyTulsa County 563,873 563,873 577,795 577,795 13,92213,922 2.5%2.5% 0.4%0.4%


Non-HispanicNon-Hispanic 529,917 529,917 526,262 526,262 -3,655-3,655 -0.7%-0.7% -0.1%-0.1%

Both Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties have been Both Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties have been

significantly affected by the Hispanic populationsignificantly affected by the Hispanic population

Without Hispanic population growth, Tulsa County Without Hispanic population growth, Tulsa County

would have had a decline in populationwould have had a decline in population


Growth related to natural balance

Oklahoma’s natural growth rate has been variable but low

30 counties in Oklahoma had less than 200 births per year

Of these, 15 counties had less than 100 births per year

YearDeath Rate

Birth Rate

Natural Growth

Rate2000 10.0 14.4 0.442001 9.9 14.4 0.452002 10.1 14.4 0.432003 10.1 14.5 0.442004 9.7 14.5 0.462005 10.2 14.6 0.44


In Tulsa, and in

Oklahoma, natural

population growth

is strongly impacted

by fertility rates

of Hispanic women


Growth related to natural balance

YearFertility Rates

Children per Women*

Fertility Rates

Children per Women*

2000 62.6 1.9 67.5 2.12001 63.8 2.0 68.3 2.12002 64.3 2.0 69.2 2.12003 64.7 2.0 69.2 2.12004 65.2 2.0 69.4 2.12005 65.5 2.0 69.7 2.22006 67.7 2.1 71 2.2

White Non-HispanicOklahoma Tulsa County

YearFertility Rates

Children per Women*

Fertility Rates

Children per Women*

2000 103.3 3.3 121.4 3.92001 110.8 3.5 131.1 4.22002 111.4 3.5 131.9 4.22003 115.9 3.7 140 4.52004 116.1 3.7 135 4.32005 116.2 3.7 139.8 4.52006 125.2 4.0 158.2 5.1

Oklahoma Tulsa CountyHispanic, Any Race

Natural growth is strongly impacted by fertility rates of Hispanic women


Growth related to migration/ immigrationIncrease in the Hispanic population, including immigrants, is the most critical contributor to population growth in small states

Oklahoma’s Hispanic population grew by over 66,000 between 2000-2006 or 37%, an average annual growth of 5.4%

The same population grew another 5.5% between 2006-2007 or by almost 14,000 people


Growth related to migration/ immigration

The non-Hispanic population grew 58,000 or 1.8% between 2000-2006 or less than 0.3% annually

The White non-Hispanic population grew by only 19,197 or 0.78%, about 0.1% per year


Race 2000 2006 Change % Change

White NH 61,362 52,742 -8,620 -14.0

Black 24,716 25,500 784 3.2

Native American 5,639 7,404 1,765 31.3

Hispanic 10,317 19,598 9,281 90.0

Race 2000 2006 Change % Change

White NH 65,848 58,731 -7,117 -10.8

Black 17,166 17,563 397 2.3

Native American 10,439 13,467 3,028 29.0

Hispanic 6,088 11,817 5,729 94.0

OklahomaOklahoma County School October 1 County School October 1 EnrollmentEnrollment

Tulsa County School October 1 EnrollmentTulsa County School October 1 Enrollment


Oklahoma’s PopulationOklahoma’s Population

Age StructureAge Structure


6.2%5.1%

18.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

% C

han

ge

2000

-200

7

4.7%

0.9%

+163,258

+8,262

+10,502

+23,513+131,483

Oklahoma’s total population has grown at just under 0.6% per yearOklahoma’s total population has grown at just under 0.6% per year

People 65 and over increased 5.1% between 2000 and 2007People 65 and over increased 5.1% between 2000 and 2007

Total 0-17 18-64 65 & Over 85 & Over


10.2% 9.5%

-0.21%

59.9%

50.4%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

% C

han

ge

2007

-203

0

+363,456 +84,446

-4,665

+283,675

+33,357

Between 2007 and 2030, Oklahoma’s total population is projected to Between 2007 and 2030, Oklahoma’s total population is projected to grow at a slow pace of +10.2%grow at a slow pace of +10.2%

The population of people 65 and over is projected to increase 60%The population of people 65 and over is projected to increase 60%

The working age population is projected to declineThe working age population is projected to decline

Total 0-17 18-64 65 & Over 85 & Over Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Per

cent

Cha

nge

TotalPop

4 9 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84

Age in Years

US 2000-2030 % ChangeOK 2000-2030 % Change

Age Structure: Total Population Percent ChangeAge Structure: Total Population Percent Change

US Compared to Oklahoma by Single Year of Age 0-85+

The age group that is most productive The age group that is most productive (34-47) is projected to decline(34-47) is projected to decline


The Perfect Storm

…is available on our website:

www.csctulsa.org

Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa - June 2008


the perfect storm oklahoma’s population …no signs of growth community service council of greater...

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