The Past and Future of Climate

David Archibald5th June 2009

Geography Course of StudyProfessional Development

Sections

• The Climate Record through Time• The Solar Driver of Climate• The Contribution of Carbon Dioxide• The Benefit to Plant Growth• Summary

The 30 years of High Quality Satellite DataThe Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 30 years ago, the Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly.

Section 1: The Climate Record

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1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

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Southern HemisphereLower Troposphere Temperature AnomalyUAH MSU 1978 - 2009

Global Sea Ice Area is above average.

- equivalent to the area of Western Australia

Arctic sea ice extent is now above normal.

50 Years of Arctic Temperatures – still the same

2009 to date

50 year average

Melting point

70 years of Alaskan Data

30 years of cooling 30 years of warming

A Rural US Data Set

The smoothed average annual temperature of the Hawkinsville (32.3N, 83.5W), Glennville (31.3N, 89.1W), Calhoun Research Station (32.5N, 92.3W), Highlands (35.0N, 82.3W) and Talbotton (32.7N, 84.5W) stations is representative of the US temperature profile away from the urban heat island effect over the last 100 years (Data source: NASA GISS)

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Discussion of the issue of sea level in the West Australian 13th May, 2009

Sea level has now been flat for four years.

The oceans started cooling in 2003.

That ocean cooling proves the climate models wrong.

Rate of Sea Level Rise and Solar Cycles.

A 300 Year Thermometer RecordCentral England Temperature

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Maunder Minimum

Dalton Minimum

Medieval Warm Period – Little Ice Age

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Medieval Warm Period Little Ice AgeModernWarmPeriod

900 1350 1900

C14 and ice-rafted debris in North Atlantic seabed cores

Glacial advances over the last two thousand years are coincident with minima in solar activity, on a 210 year (de Vries) cycle. As it is now 213 years since thebeginning of the Dalton Minimum, the Earth is now due for another period of

advancing glaciers.

The Holocene Optimum

Vostok Ice Core Temperature

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Holocene

Years Before Present

Eemian

Vostok InterglacialsSuperimposed andaligned on PeakTemperature

Holocene

Eemian

Holocene

Eemian

3,000 years

Time is up for our interglacial.

How glaciations start.

There is now a 50 watts per square metre difference at 60° north latitude.

Section 2: The Solar Driver of Climate

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DaltonMinimum

Projected

The Transition from Solar Cycle 22 to Solar Cycle 23

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Solar Cycle 22

Solar Cycle 23

Sunspots ofSolar Cycle 22

Sunspots of

Solar Cycle 23

The Dalton Minimum at Three European Stations 1770 to 1840

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Oberlach

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Central England

Dalton Minimum

Sunspot Cycle Length Relative to TemperatureArmagh, Northern Ireland 1796 – 1992

Solar Cycle 22

Solar Cycle 23

The baby boomers had the best weather too, caused by a run of short solar cycles.

Figure source: Jan Janssens, annotated by David Archibald

Dalton Minimum Repeat?

A repeat of the Dalton Minimum is not precluded by the data to date.July 2009 equates to a 13 year long Solar Cycle 23.

Late 20th Century Solar Cycles compared to Late 19th Century Solar Cycles

Spotless Days

This minimum is now deeper than the late 19th century average.

The Solar – Climate Relationship

Lower Magnetic Field Strength

Fewer Sunspots

Less SolarWind

More GalacticCosmic Rays

More Low LevelCloud Formation

More SunlightReflected Into Space

Earth BecomesColder

Effect of the June, 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo on the solar thermal power

plants in California

Solar power peak capacity factor dropped 25%.World temperature dropped by 0.5° C.

The Solar Dynamo Index

Interplanetary Magnetic Field

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1970s Cooling Period

Solar Cycle 20 Solar Cycle 21 Solar Cycle 22 Solar Cycle 23

Oulu, Finland Neutron Monitor Count1960 - 2010

aa Index 1868 - 2008

The aa Index was much weaker during the colder climate of the 19th century.

The Be10 Record

Every cold period shows up in the Be10 record, including the late 19th century one.The modern warm period is evident also. The Be10 record is incontrovertible, and good support for Svensmark’s theory.

Hanover, NH

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Correlation = 0.73 degrees/annum

Portland, ME

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Correlation = 0.70 degrees/annum

Providence, RI

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Correlation = 0.62 degrees/annum

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Solar Cycle 22

Solar Cycle 23

2.2 Degrees Celcius

The Consequential Climate Shift

1 year increase insolar cycle length

0.7° centigrade declinein temperature

100 kilometre equator-wardshift in growing conditions

Another Dalton Minimum, or Worse?

“The surprising result of these long-range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum - an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity.”

K.H.Schatten and W.K.Tobiska, 34th Solar Physics Division Meeting, June 2003, American Astronomical Society

The start of the Maunder Minimum plotted against the current minimum.

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Maunder Minimum Current Minimum

Maunder versus current minimum

The match is good given that we are counting a lot of tiny spots now.

Section 3: The Contribution of Carbon Dioxide

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Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in ppm

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Pre-industriallevel

Level in 2009Level duringIce Ages

Plant growthshuts down

600 Million Years of Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

Over the last 150 million years, geological processes have taken 90% of the carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

Relative Contributions of Pre-Industrial and Anthropogenic CO2

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600 ppm Existing and PotentialAnthropogenic

Pre-industrial CO2

Comparison of Climate Sensitivity Estimates 280 ppm to 560 ppm of CO2

Based on Idso Kininmonth Lindzen

Stefan-Boltzmann

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Based on Idso Lindzen Spencer

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Climate Sensitivity (deg. C / [watts per sq. meter])

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Global Warming by 2100as a function of "Climate Sensitivity"

U.N. IPCCClimate Models

(Forster & Taylor , 2006 J. Climate)

Observations (inter-annual variability)(Forster & Gregory , 2006 J. Climate)

Observations (intra-seasonal variability)(Spencer et al., Aug. 2007 GRL)

Theoretical (NO feedbacks)

Potential Error from Improper Diagnosis of Observations(Spencer & Braswell, 2008 J. Climate, cond. accepted)

How Do the Observational Estimates of FeedbackCompare to Climate Models?

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500 million years ago

“the safe upper limit for atmospheric CO2 is no more than 350 ppm”– Dr Hansen of NASA, American Geophysical Union meeting, San Francisco, December 2007

Dr Hansen’s safe upper limit

Pre-industrial level of 280 ppm

Level reached during interglacials, level below which plant growth shuts down

Atmospheric CO2ppm Correct Safe Limit

Oceans38,000 billion tonnes of carbon

as carbon dioxide

Atmosphere760 billion tonnes of carbon

As carbon dioxide

Vegetation and Soils2,300 billion tonnes

of carbon

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Anthropogenic Carbon

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Ocean Surface Layer800 billion tonnes of carbon as carbon dioxide in the top 100 metres

Slow exchange

Carbon Dioxide in a Cooling World

Historic and Projected Atmospheric Carbon Contributions by the

United States, China and Australia

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China

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Historic Projected

Section 4: The Benefit to Plant GrowthCan Carbon Dioxide be even a little bit bad?

Average Growth Enhancement due to a 300 ppm increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide

C3 Cereals 49%C4 Cereals 20%Fruits and Melons 24%Legumes 44%Roots and Tubers 48%Vegetables 37%

Source: Idso May 2007

Global Warming Alarmists are Exactly Wrong.

1. The Earth is getting colder and this will accelerate.

2. Carbon dioxide has a minuscule warming effect.

3. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide will increase agricultural productivity.

4. The ideal atmospheric carbon dioxide level is a minimum of 1,000 ppm

The Carbon Tax will:

1. Close all seven oil refineries in Australia.

2. Shift of energy-intensive processing to China - goodbye to the aluminium industry

3. Close most cement plants in Australia.

4. Reduce mining by one third.

5. Take us back to the 1930s in terms of standard of living.

Why not give the economy the benefit of the doubt?

Carbon capture is idiotic.

The cost of power would go up 80% -putting a lot of people out of work- we would burn through our

coal reserves 80% faster.

What is sustainable about that?

• The South Australian ban on plastic shopping bags will save 400 million bags per annum.

• At 7 grams per bag, that is 2,800 tonnes –equivalent to 33,000 tonnes nationally.

• We burn 120 million tonnes of coal per annum to make electricity.

• Carbon capture at 80% would require us to burn another 100 million tonnes per annum.

Institutional Failure

• Normally the CSIRO and the universities are gatekeepers protecting the public from carpetbaggers and rent-seekers.

• In this instance they have sold out (CSIRO has 500 staff devoted to global warming with a budget of $120 million).

• It is now a question of how angry the public will get when they realise that their lives have been severely disrupted for no good reason.

Solar Cycle 24 – The Book