The Paris Agreement, Canada’s Plan and Realizing Opportunity

Tom PedersenSchool of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria

tfp@uvic.ca

VIU Elder College , Nanoose Bay, October 28, 2017

….every Saint and Sinner in the history of our species lived there…Carl Sagan

Earth, from Cassini1.2 billion km away, September 2006

Source: NASA, JPL

June-Sept. 2001

404ppmv

(Charles David Keeling began collectingdata at Mauna Loa, a well-mixed site at3400 m elevation, in March, 1958)

Now 404 ppmv (Oct. 26)~44% higher than in mid-1800s

The "Keeling Curve"

Mauna Loa from Kilauea

Global Land-Ocean Temperature Change, relaSve to 1951-1980 average

Pinatubo

El Niño

2016

Δ =

+1

.3°C

At +1.3 °C: Ice mass changes on Greenland

March 2002 to January 2017, using GRACE satellites

Mass loss: 286 ± 58 billion tonnes/yr

Greenland

250 km apart 500 km up

What can we expect, globally, in future?

Sea level will rise, faster…(it’s 3.3 mm/yr now)

Paper published on Thursday, October 26:

Here’s how the Guardian reported it:

ProjecSons in the paper by 2100: best case, 57 cm;worst case, 189 cm

Modeled annual average temperature change, by 2100 relaSve to 1986-2005. RCP 8.5 scenario.

Source: IPCC, 2013

It will get warmer. Here is the worst case:

Change in Temperature, °C

Each degree of warming adds about 7%more water vapour to the atmosphere

Change in annual precipitaSon, RCP 8.5, Year2100:

Drier in some places, weh er in others.

Mother Nature will sS ll throw curve balls: heat waves, deluges, droughts, El Niños, La Niñas, and even cold snaps.

These will be superimposed on changing temperature and precipitaSon trends.

Record Rainfall in Texas, Noon to Noon, 17th-18th April,2016

“The NaSonal Weather Service warned of the risk of chemicals, ants, and snakes in flooded homes.”

And five weeks later:May 26, 2016: The NWS reported "amazing and record-sha ] ering" rainfall…16.62inches [42.2 cm] of rain in Brenham, about 80 miles NW of Houston.

9.9” [25.5 cm] atHouston Airport

Hurricane Harvey, late August, 2017:All-eme record single-event rainfall for conenental USA (>51”)

• Global warming fingerprints are all over these extremes…

• The costs—social, economic,poliecal–do not respect borders.

• What is to be done?

Two points:

Enter the Paris Accord (12 December, 2015)

• First comprehensive global climateagreement.

• Now 196 signatories (of 198 UNFCCC members).

• 168 countries have raefied, covering 88%of global GHG emissions.

Unique Structure of the Accord:

• Each country determines its own plan and target to miegate emissions by 2030(“INDCs” – to be ‘ambieous’ and represent ‘progression over eme’—Arecle 3).

• Each will report every five years (2023, first).

• Not binding and no enforcement (but,naming and shaming or be] er, naming and encouraging).

The Paris Accord intenSons:

• Hold global average temperature to below2°C above pre-industrial and pursue 1.5°C as aspiraeonal target.

• Enhance resilience and capacity of naeons to adapt.

• Make finance flows consistent with low-GHG-emissions development.

Is Paris enough? No. It’s just a babystep.We currently emit ~11 Gt of carbon per year,

globally.

Under Paris, INDC emissions = 15 Gt per year in 2030.

“Even if we meet every target…we will only getto part of where we need to go.”

Barack Obama, sell President, Oct. 5, 2016

Why is 15 Gt such a big problem?

2000

1980

1890

2010

21002050

2100

2100

RCP 2.6

RCP 8.5

+2 °C

~850-900 Pg

CumulaSve C emissions and changein global average temperature

The problem:

2017

~250 Pg

At ~11 Pg per year now, we have lessthan 25 years of carbon budget room to get to zero net emissions

Thus, the bad news (and what Obama was referring to):

So, our 2 °C carbon budget will be exceeded infewer than 25 years if Paris stands as is.

And 1.5 °C? We can kiss it goodbye, unless...

…the glass is half-full and not half empty!The SoluSons Project, Stanford, September,2017:

The key: electrify everything!

Generate electricity using only renewables(maybe with nuclear and carbon-capture and storage atcoal plants).

• improved work:energy raeo (combuseon is inefficient, producing a lot of heat in addieon to electricity)

• no need for mining, processing, transporeng fossil fuels

• distributed generaeon (resilient)• creates 24M net new jobs, globally

Terms and Conditions

MUST decrease demand

+1.5°C

Deep DecarbonizaSon (Sachs, p. 204)

WWS Capital cost: US$125 Trillion by 2050

Appears shocking, but…

On a “levelized cost” basis this translates to :

• 9.78 ¢/kWh for BAU electricity

• 8.86 ¢/kWh for WWS (all energy)

Transportaeon 38%Buildings

11%

Agr

icu

ltu

re

Mining,Oil, Gas

BC Emissions Inventory Report, 2015

• BC’s GHG Emissions, 2014• Total: 64.46 Mt

• 24.5 Mt

An example: the transportaSon sector in BriSsh Columbia

Electric vehicle sales, worldwide, 2010 to now

Where is the strongest growth? China, followed by Europe and the USA.

2016 Data

Beginning in late 2000s, for EVs and PHEVs:• No VAT• Free tolls• Free ferries• Free access to HOV lanes• Free parking in Oslo (terminated January 2017)• Free electricity at charging staeons• Thousands of charging staeons

“Norway is really close to the…point where EVs become the majority of car sales…which has the goal to reach 100% of new car sales being zero-emission vehicles starSng in 2025.”

-Fred Lambert, Electrek, July 4, 2017 (h] ps://electrek.co/2017/07/04/electric-car-norway-tesla-model-x/)

The Norwegian Experience:

Li-ion bah ery costs:~$1500/kWh (2006)~$300/kWh (2015)

Chevrolet Bolt, $145/kWh, Jan/16

Nykvist and Nilsson (March, 2015), “Rapidly falling costs of bah ery packs for electric vehicles”

The future of EVs? Follow the money…and airquality…

Latest: ~$109/kWh (2020, est.)

2017 Chevrolet Bolt 380 km rangeFuel cost: $1.90/100kmLow service costs0-100 km/hr: 6.5 seconds

$43,195 CAN MRSP

EV vs ICE comparison:

2017 Mini Cooper S 620 km rangeFuel cost: $9.10/100kmHigher service costs0-100 km/hr: 6.8 seconds

$27,490 CAN MRSP

The transportaSon revoluSon is here.

July 26, 2017:

•Norway: sale of new ICE cars to be banned by 2025

•U.K: sales of new ICE cars to be banned in in 2040, part of a bidto clean up the country's air.

•France: di] o by 2040.

•India: “every vehicle sold in the country should be powered byelectricity by 2030.”

•China: planning to follow UK and France…

And grid power?

Global solar photovoltaic installaSon costs and insta l l ed capacity,1975-2015

Inst

alle

d c

ost

per

Wa]

, $U

S

…and as of January 2015, the U.S. solar industry employed more than 173,000 workers, 80,000 more than in 2010

Source: Bloomberg Energy Finance, April 6, 2016

Megaw

a]s installed

Desert Sunlight Solar PV Farm,California

Opened February 10, 2015$1.5B 14.5 km2 550 MW 25-year PPA: $50-70/MWh

(Site C: 2x as much power, flood 3x the area[53.4 km2], and cost ~4x more per MW)

Mar. 23, 2016: Calif. Public Employees’ ReSrement System bought a 25% stake.

May 12, 2017

In two auceons this week…bids from companies to supply clean electricity slid to as li] l e as 3.8 cents (U.S.) a kilowaR-hour . The record is sharply below theprevious bids around 5 cents and within striking distance of the lowest recorded bids in the United Arab Emirates and Chile as of quarter three of 2016, accordingto Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

…and remember, the fuel is free!

…the trend is conSnuing…

Data source: Lawrence Berkeley Naeonal Laboratory (2014 data)

…and remember, the fuel is free!

Wind power cost curve, USA, 1980-2013

High quality sites (>7.5 m/sec at hub height)

5¢/kWh

How the Jacobson team sees Canada:GeneraVon Mix Electricity Today (NEB)

Electricity 2050 (Jacobson team)

Hydro 60% 15%

Coal/Oil 10% 0%

Gas 15% 0%

Nuclear 10% 0%

Wind 6% (capacity, 2016)

27% onshore 23% offshore

Solar/Geothermal/ Biomass/Wave/Tidal

3% 14% roovop PV, 7% uSlity PV 10% CSP, 2% wave/edal, 2% geo

NaSonal Energy Board Report, “Energy Futures”, October 25,2017

Foss

il Fu

el C

on

sum

peo

n, C

anad

a

The good news:Consumpeon peaks in 2019

The bad news: Nowhere near zero by 2050

Clearly, the challenge is immense!

Foss

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sum

peo

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anad

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Reference: carbon price fixed at $50/tonne, 2022 to 2040

Carbon price increases, 2022 to 2040

Rising carbon price plus technology

Pushing the envelope…

All fossil fuel consumpSon percapita, 2000-2013

Rest of Canada19%

BriSsh Columbia

July 1,2008

July 1,2012

Pedersen and Elgie, 2015

Tera

jou

les

per

cap

ita

Source: Pan-Canadian Wind Integraeon Study, GE Energy, October,2016: “…35% presented a reasonable final scenario… and does notrepresent a technical limit on wind penetraeon.”

(NB: the map shows onshore sites only. Offshore sites have excellent poteneal.)

Q: Where would we put turbines in Canada? A: Where they are now…(plus offshore).

High Voltage Transmission Lines,North America

HV DC

In closing:

Lack of social and poliScal will is jeopardizing future generaSons…and

New, clean economic opportuniSes are waiSng to be seized!

We can do this.

Thank you.