the paradox of expected punishment, busc
TRANSCRIPT
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7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc
1/28Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1121129
{GwGGlGwaG{GwGGlGwaG{GwGGlGwaG{GwGGlGwaGsGGsGGsGGsGG
lGmGkGzGGlGmGkGzGGlGmGkGzGGlGmGkGzGG
mGGGmGmGGGmGmGGGmGmGGGmGGvGjGvGjGvGjGvGjGG
EDGARDO BUSCAGLIA1
Director, International Law and Economic Development Center; ITAM School of
Law (Mxico); Columbia University (USA)
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7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc
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
-
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
JUDERRORS
60
120
ORGC
RIME
Afghanistan
Venezuela, R
PakistanEquatorial G
Russian Fede
Ecuador
Nigeria
Romania
Cote d'IvoirLebanon
Moldova
East Timor
Honduras
Indonesia
Mexico
El Salvador
BelarusZimbabwe
Guatemala
Egypt, Arab
Serbia
Paraguay
Dominican Re
BoliviaZambiaMozambique
Yemen, Rep.
MongoliaMorocco
CyprusAlgeriaMacao, China
Albania
China
Argentina
Ukraine
Vanatu
Brazil
Nicaragua
Nauru
Croatia
Thailand
Philippines
Namibia
Peru
Iran, Islami
Andora
Kenya
Bulgaria
IndiaBarbadosSlovak Repub
Estonia
Bahamas, The
Costa Rica
Oman
South Africa
Poland
Uzbekistan
Sri LankaPortugal
Malaysia
Panama
Jamaica
Puerto Rico
Uganda
Italy
Belgium
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
%&5%&8&,(-($4&")%&" :&N1-.$[-($)," ?)%
-
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5).$($'$-,8E"$,".)'-.")08"-"8(%)," ')%%N5($),A%&.-(&1" .$,T8" 0$(>" 5NO.$'" )::$'$-.8" 0&%&" QN1$'$-..9"1&(&%3$,&1P"J>&":)N%"$,1$'-()%8"8>)0"-"CP@!"=5&-%3-,"')%%&.-($),"$,1&M"?>$E"-,1" -%&" (>&%&:)%&" $," -" ')35)8$(&" $,1&M"):">$A.&4&."')%%N5($),"N8&1"O&.)0P"J>&""O&.)0"8>)08"(>&"'.)8&"5-%-..&.8"O&(0&&," (>&" ')35)8$(&" $,1&M" 3&-8N%$,&" (>&)%&($'-." :$,1$,&%&"$8"-",&&1"):")%$" .&4&.8"):" )%&" 5).$'&" -,1" 5%)8&'N()%$-." 1)3-$,8"?UN8'-
-
7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120
HICORRUPT
60
120
ORGCRIME
Afghanistan
PakistanEquatorial G
Nigeria
LebanonEast Timor
Cote d'Ivoir
Albania
IndonesiaParaguay
Guatemala
Yemen, Rep.
Mexico
Ecuador
CyprusAlgeria
Venezuela, R
ZimbabweBelarus
Peru
Egypt, Arab
Argentina
VanatuSouth AfricaUzbekistan
Bolivia
Russian Fede
Malaysia
Philippines
Jamaica
Serbia
BrazilCroatia
MozambiqueZambiaMorocco
Mongolia
Ukraine
Romania
Nauru
Iran, IslamiNamibia
NicaraguaThailandIndiaSlovak Repub
Dominican Re
Moldova
Andora
Kenya
Honduras
Macao, China
Bahamas, TheChina
El Salvador
Bulgaria
Costa Rica
Oman
Barbados
Puerto RicoPoland
Estonia
Sri LankaPortugal
PanamaUganda
Italy
Belgium
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
-
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J>&" " O&.)0" 8>)08" (>&" '.&-%" 5-((&%," ):" -88)'$-($)," O&(0&&," (>&"')35)8$(&" $,1&M"):")%&"')35)8$(&"$,1&M"):"Q)$,("QN1$'$-."-,1"$,(&..$&"')35)8$(&"$,1&M"3&-8N%&8"Q)$,("QN1$'$-."-,1"$,(&..$&"-$3"):"$,'%&-8$,&"&M5&'(&1"5N,$8>3&,("O9"8$35.9"-11$,N3-,"%&8)N%'&8"()"(>&"5>98$'-."'-5(N%&" ):" '%$3$,-." O)88&8" -,1" )(>&%" 3&3O&%8" 0$(>)N(" -$3$,&"1$83-,(.$,&1*" (>&" 1-(-" 8>)0" (>-(" '%$3$,-." &" >$&%"&M5&'(&1"5N,$8>3&,(8"):"$(8">$A.&4&."3&3O&%8"O9"%&A-88$&38&.4&8P"G8"-" %&8N.(*")%&," (>&"
&M5&'(&1"5N,$8>3&,("-$3&1"-("'%$3$,-."3&3O&%8>$5" $8"$,'%&-8$,&"8-3&"($3&P"J>&"QN%$3&(%$'8A%&.-(&1"-,-.98$8">&%&"8>)08"(>-("N,.&88"(>&":)N%".&$".&4&."')%%N5($),*"?$$E"1$83-,(.$,&"()5A%-,T$,&"1$83-,(.$,)0,"$,"(>&" "O&.)0" 3&-8N%&8" (>&" ')N,(%9" O9" ')N,(%9" :%&_N&,'$&8" ):")%" 5))%" %&8N.(8" $," (&%38" ):" 1$3$,$8>$,
-
7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc
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0 5 10 15 20
JUDINTSYSIN
60
120
ORGCR
IME
Belgium
Uganda
Panama
Italy
Venezuela, R
Afghanistan
PakistanEquatorial G
Russian Fede
Romania
Lebanon
Nigeria
Moldova
Indonesia
Mexico
Honduras
BelarusZimbabwe
El Salvador
Guatemala
Ecuador
Paraguay
Egypt, Arab
SerbiaZambiaMozambique
Cote d'Ivoir
Bolivia
Yemen, Rep.
Dominican Re
Mongolia
East Timor
Morocco
CyprusAlgeriaMacao, China
Ukraine
Nicaragua
China
Thailand
Vanatu
BrazilCroatiaAlbania
Andora
Nauru
Philippines
Argentina
Peru
Namibia
Kenya
Iran, Islami
IndiaBarbados
Estonia
Slovak Repub
Bulgaria
Poland
Bahamas, The
Sri LankaPortugal
Oman
Costa Rica
Puerto Rico
UzbekistanSouth Africa
JamaicaMalaysia
"
J>&"3)1&."5%&8&,(&1">&%&" -.8)" $,'.N1&8" -," &M5.-,-()%9" 4-%$-O.&" -'')N,($,&"5%&8&,'&")%"-O8&,'&"):")%$8"4-%$-O.&"3&-8N%&8" (>&",N3O&%"):"" .$,T&1" ()" )%$A'%$3&*">$"N,&35.)93&,(*"-,1">$"5)4&%(9E"$,"&-'>"):"(>&"!CR"')N,(%$&8"8-35.&1":)%"(>$8"8(N19"?-88&88$,&8&"1$4&%8&"5%&4&,($4&"5%)&"I&-%8),"$,1&M"8>)08"-,"$35%&88$4&"CP]]!P"
-
7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc
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12 24
PREVENTION
-100
0
100
200
OR
GCRIME
Equatorial G
Mexico
Pakistan
East Timor
Ireland
Germany
Liechtenstei
India
Iceland
FinlandDenmarkUnited State
AustriaCanadaIsrael
Australia
Luxembourg
Greece
United KingdFrance
Sweden
Hungary
Switzerland
Lithuania
Hong Kong, C
Netherlands
Chile
New Zealand
Saint LuciaSaudi Arabia
SeychellesUnited ArabJapan
QatarSan MarinoSpainCzech RepublColombia
Jordan
Korea, Rep.Singapore
SloveniaLatviaMalta
Estonia
PortugalSri LankaPuerto Rico
Belgium
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