the outsider illusion - politico

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August 2016

How Democrats should navigate an angry electorate

The Outsider Illusion

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GSG Compass — August 2016


The conventional narrative pushed through-out the primary season, among both the Democratic and Republican fields, was simplistic but not altogether inaccurate: the anti-establishment outsider who was sick and tired of Washington dysfunction versus the reasoned and established candidate(s) who wanted to fight within the system, however flawed it may be.

Both Senator Sanders and Donald Trump gained traction—in part—by railing against everything that is wrong with America. This was not a misguided strategy: Americans across the political spectrum are frustrated, distrustful, and desperate for change. Their message caught fire among primary elector-ates that often boast the most impassioned and impatient voters, whose ardent beliefs found a voice in two candidates who, to them, were willing to toss out the status quo.

The primary races did not just pit can-didates or issues against each other; instead, voters had to decide between different world views, different beliefs about how problems were solved, and

Voters are angry, but our new research shows that simply railing at the dysfunction of Washington or politics as usual will not be enough for Democrats to win in the fall. Instead, voters want to see what candidates can do for them – as evidenced by their experience and proven ability to get things done.

different perceptions about what experi-ences really mattered when it came down to who was qualified to be President of the United States.

Democrats went one way. Republicans went another.

But the primaries are over. How do the underlying angry anti-Washington sentiments that carried Trump to victory and gave Sanders more appeal than any Beltway prognosticators thought possi-ble translate to a general election race?

The answer is, they don’t. Or at least, not on their own. Primary election voters are but a small part of the general electorate and a sliver of our voting-age population overall. When we surveyed 1,000 Americans about what they want from their elected leaders, it wasn’t an angry tone or anti-establishment rhetoric. Quite the opposite, we found.

Overall, people want government experience. They want a track record of accomplishment and a proven ability to

get things done. Railing at the failures of Washington, the D.C. dysfunction, or politics as usual is not enough. People want to know: 1) How you’re going to fix it; and 2) What you’ve done before to prove that you can fix it.

This provides a clear opportunity for Dem-ocrats in a general election. Once again, like the primaries, voters are presented with a clear choice: angry outsider versus clear plans and government experience. Trump owns the outsider and angry mantle, and purely channeling that anger is not the most effective strategy. Democrats should not try to emulate irate Trump-like discontent. Rather, they should rise above it and paint a clear contrast with the Republican top of the ticket by highlighting how they will fix the systems (economic, political, etc.) that cause this anger to begin with.

How can Democratic challengers and incumbents make their case in a general election? GSGCompass provides guidance on what people are looking for now, as we head to November.

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Over the last year, the primary narrative on both sides has often featured anti- establishment rhetoric, anger towards government and a rigged system, and a race to see who could be more of an “outsider.” And it worked because in a time of deep political partisanship, voters from across the political spectrum agree on at least one thing: They are dissatisfied with the way our government works now. More than 80% of voters believe that government is broken, the system is rigged, and money has too much influence. This is especially true among those who supported Trump in the primary, with 92% saying our government is broken.

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The majority of voters believe that government is broken, the system is rigged, and money has too much influence.

Our government is broken

81% true

70%

85%

91%

The American system is rigged

81% true

81%

79%

82%

Money has too much influence

94% true

93%

96%

95%

We asked respondents to indicate whether they thought each statement was true or false.






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When it comes to the general election, voters want to see someone with big plans for America (88%) over big dreams for America (12%). They want someone with experience (67%) over a true outsider (33%). In fact, those who will vote for Trump in a Clinton-Trump general are the only demo-graphic who prefer a true outsider (60%) over someone with experience (40%); this is especially true among Republicans who supported Trump in the primary.

Republicans who are undecided or voting for Clinton are just as likely as Democrats (81%) to vote for someone with experience at 83%. Moreover, Democrats generally are far more likely to value experience compared to Republicans, evidenced in this data, but also in the outcomes of their respective primaries.

But the primary is over and people want experience, not angry rhetoric and dreams with no plans to achieve them.

Which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? Someone with experience in government vs. a true outsider with no experience in government?

Government experience True outsider

72%

25%

28%

75%

67%

81%

65%

52%

33%

19%

35%

48%






To understand the qualities voters want, we gave them four candidate descriptions and asked them how appealing each was. We then used an online survey technique called “text highlighting,” asking respondents to highlight parts of the message they liked most. This enabled us to isolate the exact words and phrases in a larger message that resonated with voters. Below are the statements we presented to respondents, what percentage each found “very appealing”, and the patterns we saw in their answers.

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Simply calling out the problem with Washington is not the most effective way to sway voters in a general election. Voters want to know what you can do for them.

Own your government accomplishments:52% very appealing

Throw your politician colleagues under the bus: 38% very appealing

Focus on government failure and gridlock:28% very appealing

Emphasize Washington corruption:31% very appealing






Voters believe that the system is broken. But this election isn’t about who can point that out the loudest. It’s about who can fix it. Democrats need to show what they’ve done to prove that they can do even more.

Experienced candidates should highlight their accomplishments and show that they are effective leaders who can fix things. Voters were more likely to find an incumbent candidate that leans into his or her experience accomplishing things in Washington very appealing compared to an incumbent candidate that throws Washington under the bus and focuses on insider knowledge of corruption, money in politics, and the gridlock that plagues DC.

In an election cycle where many are looking to split the ticket, there is also evidence that leaning into one’s accomplishments (82% appealing) is more effective than is angry rhetoric (70% appealing) among those Republicans not yet committed to Trump.

Incumbents: Own your accomplishments inside government.

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Voters were more likely to find an incumbent that leans into his or her experience accomplishing things in Washington very appealing than one that throws Washington under the bus.

Own your government accomplishments

Throw your politician colleagues under the bus

52% very appealing

67%

47%

38%

38% very appealing

50%

31%

27%






But what about Democratic challengers trying to unseat incumbent Republicans? Even without a Federal Government record of accomplishment, there are still ways to convey making progress rather than simply raging at the broken system. Candidates with state- and local-level experience can focus on what they’ve fixed and accom-plished within those roles. In fact, many voters, especially Republicans, would like to see someone with experience in state and local government (65%) over someone with federal experience (35%).

Moreover, any evidence of making prog-ress on issues will likely resonate more than promoting one’s outsider status and focusing only on what’s broken now: Voters overwhelmingly want to see someone who follows through on promises, is effective, and has clear plans. In fact, in a list of 12 qualities that best describe their ideal can-didate, those three rose to the top. At the bottom? A candidate who is inspiring, has big dreams for American, and someone from outside Washington.

Challengers: Show you can get things done.

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Voters want someone who follows through on promises, is effective, has clear plans and says what he or she means.

17%27% 26%65% 56% 54% 54%

Top qualities they want: z Follows through on promises (65%) z Effective (56%) z Has clear plans (54%) z Says what she or he means (54%)

Qualities that fell to the bottom: z Inspiring (27%) z Has big dreams for America (26%) z Someone from outside Washington (17%)

Want state/local experience Want federal experience

51%

37%

55%

65%

49%

63%

45%

35%






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No matter what kind of experience a candidate has though, the overarching message is clear: The anti-establishment and outsider language that dominated much of the primary is not the most effective way to sway people in a general election.

The primaries are over. The angry tone and rhetoric that caught fire over the last year will not have the same impact in a general election.

When it comes to political leaders, Americans want someone with plans and experience in government.

Democratic incumbents should own their accomplishments in D.C. rather than only focus on their firsthand knowledge of a corrupt system. How many jobs did they create? How many people got health care because of their leadership? What did they do to stop tax breaks for corporations and put more dollars in middle class pockets? And when thwarted time and again, did they continue to fight to move the needle by any means necessary?

Democratic challengers should lean into any state or local accomplishments that led to real, tangible results. The scale matters less than proving the ability to make change.

Challengers and incumbents should focus on stories and proof points that speak to what people want from their ideal candidate: the ability to follow through on promises, be effective, develop clear plans to solve problems, and say what she or he means.

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Key Compass points




Methodology: This edition of GSGCompass references the results of a nationwide online survey of 1000 adults conducted by Global Strategy Group on April 13-19, 2016. Special care has been taken to ensure that partisan, geographic and demographic divisions are properly represented by the survey’s respondents. GSG Compass offers research-based direction and orientation on important or trending topics in the national dialogue to progressive policymakers, the media and the business community, including insight on language when communicating on those topics. Compass relies primarily on GSG’s own proprietary survey research but at times synthesizes relevant research from other organizations, as well.

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