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THE OUTLOOKFOR UNIVERSITYADMISSIONS:THE IMPACT OFCOVID-19 How admissions in the upcoming 2020/2021 academic year couldbe impacted by the coronavirus crisis

Published in June 2020

II The Outlook for University Admissions: The Impact of COVID-19

Contents

Introduction 1

How have the study plans of prospective international students changed due to

the coronavirus crisis? 2

When do prospective international students believe they will start their studies? 4

According to respondents, which countries are handling the coronavirus crisis best? 6

How have their attitudes towards online learning changed? 10

Conclusion 14

About QS 15

https://www.qs.com/contact/ 1

Introduction

The global higher education sector has seen drastic

shifts in educational delivery, operations, and student

recruitment in 2020 due to the coronavirus crisis.

As we move towards the 2020/2021 academic year, higher

education institutions are understandably concerned

about the impact on recruitment and admissions and

the long-term financial sustainability of their institutions.

With uncertainty still raging over the level of restrictions

institutions will face in the upcoming academic year, many

are preparing several contingency plans to ensure that

educational delivery continues.

Some institutions have already announced that the

2020/2021 academic year will be delivered partially of

fully online.

In the US, California State University announced that its fall

semester will be delivered virtually, across 23 campuses

and 482,000 students.

In the UK, Cambridge University has stated that all

lectures will be delivered online for the full duration of

the 2020/2021 academic year. 

So, how can institutions prepare for the upcoming

2020/2021 academic year and predict the impact the

coronavirus will have on admissions?

An ongoing QS coronavirus survey of prospective

international students has explored how their study

plans have changed, when they predict they will start

their studies, which countries they think have handled

the coronavirus outbreak the best, and how willing they

are to study online.

This white paper will explore these issues and provide

helpful insights and key findings from the QS coronavirus

survey.

Read on to discover how your institution’s admissions

outlook will be impacted by the shifting needs of

prospective international students during the coronavirus

crisis.

Further survey analysis:

2 The Outlook for University Admissions: The Impact of COVID-19

How have the study plans of prospective international students changed due to the coronavirus crisis?

Every month, QS has released its coronavirus survey findings to detail how prospective international students are

responding to the unfolding crisis.

Since the survey was established in February, we have seen a significant uptick in the number of prospective international

students whose study plans have been impacted by the coronavirus.

As of the 11 June, when the latest results were pulled for this white paper, we can see that 59% of respondents have

stated that the coronavirus has affected their plans to study abroad.

Has the coronavirus affected your plans to study abroad?

59%17%

24%

Yes No Don't know

Our report released in May found that 57% of respondents said their plans had been affected, 18% said they hadn’t,

and 25% didn’t know.

Additionally, our April report stated that 46% of respondents said their plans had been affected, 29% said they hadn’t,

and 25% didn’t know.

This increase from 46% in April to 59% in June shows that prospective international students are still being impacted

by the coronavirus and in ever-increasing numbers.

https://www.qs.com/contact/ 3

QS also asked respondents to detail how the coronavirus had changed their plans to study abroad, whether they

expected to delay or defer their studies, decided to study in a different country, no longer planned to study overseas,

or something else.

Which of these best describes how the coronavirus has changed your plans to study abroad?

55%

9%

7%

15%

15%

I now intend to delay or defer my entry until next year I now intend to study in a different country

I now no longer want to study overseas Other

None of these

Again, we see slight changes from our May reporting, where 53% of respondents intended to delay or defer, 13% chose

other, 17% chose none of these, and the two other choices remained the same.

Comparatively, in our April report, 47% of respondents intended to delay or defer, 13% intended to study in a different

country, and 8% no longer wanted to study abroad.

Given these upward trends towards delaying or deferring, many institutions are understandably concerned about the

admission intake for the upcoming academic year.

However, additional findings from the QS coronavirus survey show some positive indicators for institutions and their

admissions outlook for the 2020/2021 academic year.

4 The Outlook for University Admissions: The Impact of COVID-19

When do prospective international students believe they will start their studies?

When examining the results in the previous section, QS analysts identified that additional questions were needed to

drill down into the study plans and intentions of prospective international students.

These analysts wanted to determine whether respondents were keen to defer or delay their studies or whether they

simply didn’t know what else to do amidst the global uncertainty of the coronavirus crisis.

To pinpoint the study aspirations and preferences of prospective international students, QS added a question into the

survey which asked what year they would prefer to start their studies.

In an ideal world, what year would you like to start your studies?

42%

40%

11%

8%

2020 2021 2022 2023 or later

In the chart above, we can see that 42% of respondents would like to start their studies in 2020 and 40% would like

to start in 2021.

This demonstrates that the overwhelming majority of respondents are keen to start their studies within the next two

years.

In a follow-up question, survey respondents who said they wanted to start their studies in 2020 were asked which year

they expected to start their studies.

https://www.qs.com/contact/ 5

What year do you expect to start your studies?

62%

35%

1% 1%

2020 2021 2022 2023 or later

These promising results indicate that of those students who want to start in 2020, the vast majority (62%) expect that

they will commence their course in the upcoming academic year.

A significant minority of 35% of respondents expect to start in 2021, suggesting that these respondents believe that

the coronavirus crisis will force them to delay their plans.

6 The Outlook for University Admissions: The Impact of COVID-19

According to respondents, which countries are handling the coronavirus crisis best?

In recent news coverage, some higher education experts have suggested that prospective international students may

move away from traditionally popular study destinations like the US and UK and turn to other study destinations, due

to their handling of the coronavirus crisis.

Akos Kiraly, director of marketing and recruitment at Lancaster University Leipzig, states that: “Germany’s popularity

among international students is growing based on the first results in dealing with Covid-19. Germany has one of the best health

care systems in the world. I anticipate that Germany’s international student numbers will grow even stronger in the near future,

especially from the EU, as many students will need to look for alternative options within the EU with English-taught programs.”

To explore this further, QS asked prospective international students whether the way different governments had handled

the coronavirus had impacted their choice of study destination.

Has the way that different governments managed the coronavirus in their own country made you

reconsider where to study overseas?

54%32%

14%

Yes No Don't know

These results indicate that 54% of respondents have reconsidered where they want to study overseas based on how

different governments have handled the coronavirus crisis.

For institutions, this highlights the importance of governmental response to the global crisis and ensuring that their

nation is seen to be proactively and effectively addressing the pandemic.

As a follow-up question, prospective international students were asked their opinion on which country has handled

the coronavirus outbreak the best.

https://www.qs.com/contact/ 7

Which country do you think has handled the coronavirus outbreak the best?

2%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

5%

8%

9%

12%

28%

US

UK

Singapore

Japan

Italy

India

Canada

Australia

South Korea

Germany

China

New Zealand

22% of respondents selected a country not shown on this list, with no single market scoring higher than 1%

For New Zealand institutions, this comes as good news, with the nation clearly known for its effectiveness when addressing

the coronavirus crisis. With the nation lifting all coronavirus-related restrictions as early as June 8, it’s no surprise that

28% of respondents choose New Zealand as the nation they think has best handled the crisis.

China is the next most popular choice with 12% of respondents selecting this option, followed by Germany (9%) and

South Korea (8%).

It’s important to note that only a minority thought that the US or the UK had handled the crisis well, with only 2%

selecting each country.

Once respondents had indicated their opinion on which country had handled the coronavirus outbreak the best, they

were asked to explain their choice in their own words. Below, we have included a selection of quotes to demonstrate

the variety of opinions from respondents:

8 The Outlook for University Admissions: The Impact of COVID-19

New Zealand:

“When the number of infected people was still relatively low, New Zealand implemented strict measures to contain the spread,

thus sacrificing the economy, which enabled them to restart the economy earlier than other countries.”

“I think New Zealand has responded the best to the coronavirus outbreak because the country has not reported any fresh

infections or any positive cases in the last two weeks. Their Prime Minister, Jacinda Arden, surely took commendable steps in

eradicating the virus from its land.”

“New Zealand handled it swift and tough. They were also able to communicate effectively with their constituents. Most importantly,

they prioritized their testing capability. It was the epitome of good governance and displayed how the use of brute force and

violence was never an option.”

“They carried out proper awareness. They prioritized health over economy, they actually listened to science. They ensured

proper awareness and complete lock-down. They acted fast. They maintained transparency. Ardern also showed how much

the mortality rate will increase exponentially if it is not properly controlled. She also demoted a political official who did not

follow the quarantine rules, this also encouraged the public to stay at home and portrayed the gravity of the situation.”

China:

“China responded to the coronavirus outbreak best by stopping the spread in other provinces. China completely went under

lockdown (although their financial stability has a lot to contribute to that), stopping inter-city commuting helped in managing

the situation more profoundly.”

“China limited the movement within their borders, and restricted movement of people in and out of Wuhan, the center of the

epidemic, and 15 other cities in Hubei province. Flights and trains were suspended, and roads blocked. Soon after, people in

many Chinese cities were told to stay at home and venture out only to get food and medical help. Roughly half of the country’s

population, were confined to their homes.”

“China is the first country to be able to reopen campuses.”

Germany:

“They have stopped the spread quickly and rapidly. The healthcare system is very good and even though no one was prepared

for this pandemic the healthcare system was working through it.”

“Constant communication with the population about the spread of the virus. Making people aware of the importance of staying

at home. Informing educational institutions of the modifications needed for classes. Lockdown periods.”

“The measures were very quick, definitive, and managed to slow the spread of the coronavirus so that semi-normal life could

begin this summer.”

“Very well-organized handling of all coronavirus-related measures. Availability of medicine, treatment, hospitals, and doctors.”

https://www.qs.com/contact/ 9

South Korea:

“The amount of cases in South Korea was the same as the US at the start of the pandemic but as time progressed South Korea

showed initiative, which has worked to lessen their COVID-19 curve remarkably.”

“South Korea showed that it’s possible to contain the coronavirus without shutting down the economy. South Korea has tested

far more people for coronavirus than any other country, enabling it to isolate and treat many people soon after they are

infected. South Koreans’ cellphones vibrate with emergency alerts whenever new cases are discovered in their districts. Social

trust is higher in South Korea than in many other countries.”

“One of the reasons is shortly after the initial discovery of the virus, South Korea implemented a “TRUST” strategy” an acronym

for “transparency, robust screening and quarantine, unique but universally applicable testing, strict control, and treatment.”

Just one week after the country’s first case was diagnosed, South Korean officials met with representatives from 20 medical

companies to request they immediately develop COVID-19 test kits for mass production.”

With over half of all prospective international students now re-evaluating their options on where they could study

abroad, the steps taken by New Zealand, Germany, and South Korea may have helped institutions within their respective

countries to benefit from shifting international student flows.

10 The Outlook for University Admissions: The Impact of COVID-19

How have their attitudes towards online learning changed?

In previous reports, we have covered how prospective international students feel about online learning during the

coronavirus crisis.

To delve into this further, QS analysts added questions to the ongoing coronavirus survey to gauge how willing or

interested respondents would be in online learning and how it would impact their enrollment decisions.

Of those prospective international students who were interested in starting their studies in 2020, respondents were

asked whether they would still be willing to start their studies in the upcoming academic year if the beginning of the

course was online.

If starting your studies this academic year meant doing the beginning of your course online, would you be

interested in this?

47%

27%

27%

Yes No Unsure

These results indicate that a promising 47% would be interested in this, and 27% were unsure. This demonstrates that

prospective international students are open to starting their studies online in the upcoming academic year, and the

onus is on institutions to communicate the benefits and strengths of their online offering.

Additionally, respondents demonstrated a greater willingness to start their studies online if they knew that it would only

be for a set period. If prospective international students knew that online studies would be for a duration of six months

until face-to-face classes could commence, then 64% claimed they would be interested in starting their studies online.

https://www.qs.com/contact/ 11

What is of further encouragement is that 75% of prospective students would be interested in starting their studies

online if they knew it would only be for a maximum of three months. This suggests that if universities can guarantee

to students that they would only be studying online for a limited time period (preferably only three months), then the

likelihood of them enrolling in that institution increases substantially.

If you knew the online learning would be for a maximum of six months before you could begin face-to-face

classes, would you consider it?

64%

20%

16%

Yes No Unsure

If you knew the online learning would be for a maximum of three months before you could begin face-to-

face classes, would you consider it?

75%

12%

13%

Yes No Unsure

12 The Outlook for University Admissions: The Impact of COVID-19

These results clearly demonstrate that respondents would prefer to start their studies online for a maximum of three

months and are more likely to enroll if they are made aware of a specific timeline for how long they would have to learn

online for, however if they are told that they may have to learn online for as much as six months, then their willingness

to enroll declines drastically.

To address this, institutions should create and communicate their contingency plans to prospective international

students, detailing how their online learning offering will be delivered, how they will transition to face-to-face teaching,

and be as specific as they can be on the timelines they will follow to do so.

While uncertainty remains rife, institutions can detail the strategic planning they are conducting to ensure they are

prepared for shifts in government guidance and reassure prospective students that they will act quickly and effectively.

Finally, QS survey respondents were asked whether these shifts in educational delivery should be reflected in the tuition

fees they pay.

If you were to start your studies online until you're able to travel for face-to-face teaching, do you think this

should affect tuition fees?

78%

8%

13%

1%

Yes, they should be discounted No, they should stay the same Unsure Other

These responses clearly indicate that prospective international students expect discounts to their tuition fees if they

start their studies online.

When breaking down the level of discount that these respondents expect, the results vary across the financial spectrum.

It’s important to note that any questions that ask about cost will inevitably have a bias to over stipulate discount, so the

results below should be viewed through that lens.

https://www.qs.com/contact/ 13

How much do you think tuition fees should be discounted by during online studies until you're able to start

face-to-face classes?

4%

10%

21%

16%

20%

13%

9%

7%

Up to 10% 11% to 20% 21% to 30% 31%-40% 41%-50% 51%-70% More than70%

Don't know

Given the higher level of responses across the discount range of 21-50% and 41-50%, it’s clear that prospective

international students expect a significant discount.

As institutions strive to boost admissions for the upcoming academic year, offering discounted tuition fees could be a

key differentiator.

14 The Outlook for University Admissions: The Impact of COVID-19

ConclusionThroughout this white paper, our QS survey findings have

demonstrated that prospective international students

are willing and interested in starting their studies in the

upcoming academic year.

While mobility restrictions and government responses may

dictate their study plans, survey respondents showed a

clear interest in international study and an openness to

online learning.

The responsibility now lies with higher education institutions

to reassure these students, communicate their plans clearly

and continuously, and adjust their usual policies to account

for these unprecedented times.

If you would like to discover more QS insights or discuss

your admissions approach for the upcoming 2020/2021

academic year, please reach out to the QS team at https://

www.qs.com/contact.

For any media queries, please contact

qspressoffice@qs.com.

15 The Outlook for University Admissions: The Impact of COVID-19

About QS

QS Quacquarelli Symonds is the world’s leading provider of services, analytics, and insights to the global higher education

sector. Our mission is to enable motivated people anywhere in the world to fulfil their potential through educational

achievement, international mobility, and career development.

Our QS World University Rankings portfolio, inaugurated in 2004, has grown to become the world’s most popular source

of comparative data about university performance. Our flagship website, www.TopUniversities.com – the home of our

rankings – was viewed 149 million times in 2019, and over 94,000 media clippings pertaining to, or mentioning, QS were

published by media outlets across the world in 2019.

QS portfolio

� QS Digital and Events provides prospective undergraduate, graduate, and MBA applicants with independent

guidance throughout their search and decision making. Our world-class digital platforms include TopUniversities.

com, TopMBA.com, and QSLeap.com which support search and inform applications to programs matching their

profile and aspirations. In parallel, prospective students can meet, either virtually or face-to-face, with admissions

officers of international universities and business schools. For universities and business schools, it offers effective

and innovative digital and off-line student recruitment and branding solutions.

� QS Enrolment Solutions supports higher education institutions to maximize their student recruitment with a range

of specialist services, from data-driven insights and high-quality lead generation to optimized communications

and student conversion. With over 20 years of experience QSES has an unequalled understanding of international

student decision-making. Our international office locations (UK, Romania, India, Malaysia and Australia) enable us

to operate across time zones to deliver high value to our partners and exceptional services for applicants.

� The QS Intelligence Unit is a leading originator of institutional performance insight drawing on unique proprietary

datasets gathered in pursuit of its published research. Best known for the widely referenced QS World University

Rankings, today comprising variants by discipline and geography, the unit also operates a sophisticated, multi-

dimensional quality standard; a comprehensive analytics platform facilitating advanced benchmarking; and an in-

demand consulting team. Our insights both inform and are informed by frequent presence and digital conferences

for educators, university leaders, and policy makers.

� QS Unisolution is dedicated to developing SaaS technology solutions to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of

international mobility, relations, and recruitment functions within education, positively impacting the educational

experience for the students, staff, and partners we serve.

https://www.qs.com/contact/ 16

For more information about the QS services, please contact b2bmarketing@qs.com

To continue empowering motivated individuals and institutions across the world alike during the coronavirus outbreak,

QS’s response has included:

� Moving its student recruitment events online, ensuring that universities and talented potential applicants across the

world are still able to achieve high-quality personalized engagement.

� Expanding its range of digital marketing offerings, empowering student recruitment teams as they seek to maintain

outreach and enrolment efforts.

� Launching a webinar series designed to enable university faculty and administrators alike to share best practices as

they transition their educational offerings into the virtual classroom.

� Ongoing surveys of prospective students and institutions globally to analyze how the COVID-19 crisis is impacting them.

In 2019, as part of our commitment to sustainability, QS became a certified CarbonNeutral® Company, reflecting our

efforts to reduce our impact on the environment through a range of efficiency initiatives and offsetting unavoidable

emissions through a verified carbon offset forestry project in Brazil.