the outlook for energy - united states association for ...the outlook for energy: a view to 2040...
TRANSCRIPT
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Todd Onderdonk
USAEE -- Houston
February 2014
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes
in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future
Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and
analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission
of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
100
countries
15 demand
sectors
Residential
Commercial
Lt. Transportation
Hvy. Transportation
Aviation
Marine
Rail
Chemicals
Asphalt
Lubricants
Flaring
Energy Industry
Agriculture
Heavy Industry
Power Generation
Energy Outlook Development
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Motor Gasoline
Distillate
Naphtha
Jet Fuel
Fuel Oil
LPG
Lubes
Asphalt
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Biomass/Other
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
20 fuel
types
Solar
Wind
Bio-mogas
Bio-distillate
Electricity
Market Heat
Energy Outlook Development
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Energy Outlook Development
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Technology &
Policy
Energy Outlook Development
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Trade
Flows
Energy Saved
~500
Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
1.0%
Global Progress Drives Demand
Billion
Population GDP
Trillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
2.8%
OECD
Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Leading Economic Growth 2010 to 2040
China
~40%
India
~15%
Key
Growth
20%
Other
25%
Percent Share
60+
Countries
10
Countries
Key Growth Countries
2040 Energy Demand
QUADS
Brazil
Saudi
Arabia
Iran
Mexico
Nigeria
South Africa
Thailand
Egypt
Turkey
Indonesia
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2010)
2010 Percentage Urban
0-50%
50-75%
75-100%
2010 City – 10 million +
Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates
Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2040)
2040 Percentage Urban
0-50%
50-75%
75-100%
2010 City – 10 million +
2040 City – 10 million +
Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates
Energy Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
2010
2025
2040
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Industrial
Energy
Industry
Chemicals
Heavy
Industry
Other
Percent Share
By Sector
Industrial Energy Demand
By Region
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
China
India
Rest of
Non OECD
2010
2040
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
By Fuel
Percent Share
Other
Oil
NGLs
Naphtha Other
Electricity
Coal
Gas
Industrial Energy Demand
By Region
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
China
India
Rest of
Non OECD
2010
2040
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
Range of Average Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon
U.S.
Average
Fleet
Europe
Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency
Car Fleet by Type Million Cars
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Commercial Transportation by Region - 2010 Sector Demand MBDOE
Light Duty
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
Aviation
Transportation Demand
MBDOE
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Commercial Transportation by Region - 2040 Sector Demand MBDOE
Light Duty
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
Aviation
Transportation Demand
MBDOE
2010
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Non OECD
MBDOE
OECD
MBDOE
Diesel
Gasoline
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Jet Fuel Fuel Oil
Other
Natural Gas
Electricity generation
Electricity Demand
Global Electrical Demand by Sector Thousand TWh
Residential
Commercial
Heavy Industry
Other Industry
Transportation
Global Electrical Demand by Fuel Thousand TWh
Wind & Solar
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Gas
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
CCS Onshore
Wind
Gas
Coal
Gas
Plant Cost, Startup 2030
2013 cents/kWh
Coal Nuclear
$60/tonne of CO2
$0/tonne
Solar PV
Utility *Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs.
Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity
Baseload Intermittent
Reliability
Cost*
Reliability
Cost*
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
United States Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity
Generation
Res/Comm
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Other Renewables
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 - 2040
1.0%
2040
2010
0.7%
1.7%
0.0%
2.5% 0.4%
5.9% 2.0%
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Emissions
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Asia Pacific
North America
Russia/Caspian
Europe
2010
2040
Emissions per Capita Tonnes / Person
CO2 Emissions Plateau
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
CO2 Emissions Relative to Efficiency & Fuel Mix Changes
11
13
10
18
7
27
= Billion tonnes CO2
Tonnes of CO2 per Billion BTUs
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f B
TU
s p
er
$ G
DP
(2
00
5$
)
Non OECD
OECD 2040
2040
2010
2010
1980
1980
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Supply
Liquids Supply
Liquid Supply by Type
MBDOE
Other
Biofuels
Conventional
Crude & Condensate
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
Crude and Condensate Resource*
Cumulative
Production
through 2040
Remaining
Resource
Trillion barrels of oil
* Source: IEA ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
* Source: IEA
Liquids Supply by Region
North American Liquid Supply MBDOE
Conventional
Crude & Condensate
NGLs
Other
Biofuels
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
Deepwater
Change in Liquid Production by Region from 2010 to 2040 MBDOE
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Gas Resources Abundant; Supply Diversifies
Thousand TCF
Gas Production by Region Remaining Recoverable Resource*
BCFD
Conventional
Unconventional
BCFD
Unconventional
Conventional
ROW
Gas Production by Type
2012
* Source: IEA
AP
NA
Africa
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Russia/
Caspian
Europe
North America
Latin America
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
* Source: IEA
Africa
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Russia/
Caspian
Europe
North America
Latin America
Liquids Trade
North America
MBDOE
Net Exports
Net Imports
Latin America Africa
Europe
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Russia/Caspian
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Natural Gas Trade
North America
BCFD
Net Exports
Net Imports
Latin America Africa
Europe
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Russia/Caspian
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Conclusions
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy