the opportunities in uk gilts and us bonds 12th august (ig)
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8/6/2019 The Opportunities in UK Gilts and US Bonds 12th August (IG)
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UPDATE
FundamentalTechnical
in association with
12th August 2011
The opportunities in UK Gilts and
US bonds
8/6/2019 The Opportunities in UK Gilts and US Bonds 12th August (IG)
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Disclaimer
UK Gilts are well set for further advances
MONTHLY UK GILT CHART
The market has overcome the important
Pivot at 124.95 from 2002 - and where it
has failed twice before in 2009 and 2010.
Final confirmation of the breakthrough
requires a monthly close of course, but the
evidence is mounting not least because of
the completion of a large bull continuation
Triangle in the weekly charts at CLOSE
OF BUSINESS TODAY 12TH August.
WEEKLY UK GILT CHART
The detail of the 2011 continuation triangle:
A close above the upper diagonal at 127.93
this week confirmed the following weeksuggests moves up as far as 141
minimum.
H&S Neckline
Minimum mov
e to 141
92 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1000020000
x10
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
105.03 High
Low 104.29 Low 104.43
124.95 High All Time
Long Gilt Continuous
A M J J A S O N D 2009 M A M J J A S O N D 2010 M A M J J A S O N D 2011 M A M J J A S O
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
61.8%
100.0%
161.8%
100.0%
161.8%
261.8%
High 126.93
113.34 Low
125.58 High
Long Gilt Continuous
Minimum target of the continuation Triangle
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WEEKLY UK GILT CHART
The market has smashed up through the recent All
Time High of 126.93 in good volume and open
interest.
7
arch
14 21 28 4
April
11 18 26 2
May
9 16 23 30 6
June
13 20 27 4
July
11 18 25 1 8
August
15 22 2
5000
1000015000
20000
2500030000
35000
x10
118.5
119.0
119.5
120.0
120.5
121.0
121.5
122.0
122.5
123.0
123.5
124.0
124.5
125.0
125.5
126.0
126.5
127.0
127.5
128.0
128.5
129.0
129.5
130.0
119.95 Prior High - support 120.19 Prior High Support
122.55 Fibonacci resistance
All Time Highfr om August 2010 (126.93)
124.55 High
Long Gilt Sep 11
UK Gilts are well set for further advances
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MONTHLY TNOTE CHART
The market has smashed up through the succession
of Prior Highs from 1993.
A close on at the end of the month above the 128-
01/128-22.5n looks likely, which will fuel moveshigher still by established powerful support beneath
the market.
WEEKLY TNOTE CHART
This is close to a continuationTriangle. but not quite since there is a
lack of correct alternation.
But the essential characteristic of
Prior Highs acting as goodratcheting support beneath the
market holds good.
Watch for a close on the week
above 128-22.5.
82 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 010 1 0 11 12
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
^32
117-09
121-15 120-14
128-22.5128-01
Note USTreasury 10 Year COMP Continuous
S O N D 2007 A M J J A S O N D 2008 A M J J A S O N D 2009 A M J J A S O N D 2010 A M J J A S O N D 2011 A M J J A S O
10000
20000
x100
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
^32
128 - 22.5 128-01 High
117-18 Low
112-25.5 Low
Note US Treasury 10 Year COMP Continuous
... And US TNotes are equally poised to go further
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23 31
June
6 13 20 27 5
July
11 18 25 1
August
8 15 22 2
0
500000
1000000
1500000
121^16
121^24
122^00
122^08
122^16
122^24
123^00
123^08
123^16
123^24
124^00
124^08
124^16
124^24
125^00
125^08
125^16
125^24
126^00
126^08
126^16
126^24
127^00
127^08
127^16
127^24
128^00128^08
128^16
128^24
129^00
129^08
129^16
129^24
130^00
130^08
130^16
130^24
131^00
131^08
131^16
131^24
132^00
132^08
132^16
^32
124-08 High November 2011
- .
125-01 High
128-01-22 All Time Highs from Nov 2010 and Dec 2008
125-12 High
Note US Treasury 10 YearCOMP Sep 11 DAILY TNOTE CHART
The market Looks powerfully set up, the small
consolidation above the critical band of prior Highs
looks set up for a further bull push – having the
appearance of a pennant.
... And US TNotes are equally poised to go further.
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