The Opportunities and Challenges for Livestock and Fish R&D in Asia

Steve Staal

High Level Policy Dialogue on Investment in Agricultural Research for Sustainable Development in Asia and the PacificBangkok 8-9 Dec. 2015

Outline of the Presentation

Trends in livestock and fish in Asia Implications and opportunities for

smallholders Constraints Framework for investment

Animal agriculture to 2050: TRENDS

GLOBAL TRENDS:Livestock demand and production are increasing rapidly in developing countries

• Unprecedented rising demand for livestock commodities will continue over the coming 5 decades

• Where and how most livestock commodities are produced, sold and consumed is changing significantly

Gains in meat consumption in developing countries are outpacing those of developed countries

1980 1990 2002 2015 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

developingdeveloped

Milli

on m

etric

tonn

es

FAO 2006

Rising per capita consumption in Asia

2000 2010 2020 2030 20500

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

PoultryMeatPigMeatMuttonGoatMeatMilkEggsBovineMeat

Livestock product kg/capita in Asia to 2050

Enahoro 2015, IFPRI IMPACT model

Asian demand doubling to 2050

BovineM

eat Eggs

Milk

MuttonGoatMeat

PigMea

t

PoultryMea

t0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

20102050

BovineMeat Eggs MuttonGoatMeatPigMeat PoultryMeat0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

20102050

Demand for milk in Asia will double to 2050 from 2010 levels

Demand for poultry, mutton and bovine meat will more than double

Enahoro 2015, IFPRI IMPACT model

Imports into Asia will rise

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

PoultryMeatPigMeatMuttonGoatMeatEggsBovineMeat

Particularly for pork and poultry

Enahoro 2015, IFPRI IMPACT model

Global 1987 Global 2012 Asia 1987 Asia 20120

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Crops Livestock

In $

2004

/06

billi

ons

Share of value of agricultural production shifting to livestock

Source: Delgado (2014)

• The share of value of production in Asia has grown to nearly half of the global total, and the share of livestock in value of agricultural production had also increased significantly, both globally and in Asia.

Demand for fish growing

Sources: Phillips: WRI (2014) FAO (2012a), FAO (2012b), FAO (2013), FAO (2014).

Million tons

Capture fisheries stagnating. Aquaculture has emerged to meet fish demand

Supply of farmed fish needs to grow rapidly

Sources: Phillips: Production data 1961–2010: FAO (2014a), FAO (2014b).

Aquaculture production must more than double by 2050 to satisfy projected fish demand

Million tons

Nearly 90 percent of aquaculture production is in AsiaTons (2012)

Importance of fish in ASFs in Asia

Various sources:BMGF, FAO and ILRI

Smallholders still dominatelivestock production in many countries of Asia

Region (definition of ‘smallholder’)

% production by smallholder livestock farms

Beef Chicken meat

Sheep/goat meat

Milk Pork Eggs

East Africa(≤ 6 milking animals)

60-90

Bangladesh (< 3ha land)

65 77 78 65 77

India(< 2ha land)

75 92 92 69 71

Vietnam (small scale)

80

Philippines (backyard)

50 35

Livestock multiplies rural incomes

Rural income multipliers are higher for livestock than for other commodities and higher even than non-agricultural activities.

Steinfeld et al. 2006

Large productivity gaps persist between rich and poor countries, including in Asia

Some developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk

Factors are combination of feeds, animal health, and genetics, combined with poor management

Importance of fish for the diets of the poor

• Millions of people, particularly women and children, suffer from deficiencies of vitamin A, iron, and zinc

• Fish, including small indigenous or farmed fish in household ponds provide a ready source

Livestock sub-Sector in Asia: Issues

50-92% production from smallholders in mixed systems The growing demand thus represents large opportunities for

smallholders and rural development

However

Complexity from coexistence of a range of production systems Large productivity gaps Mostly informal wet markets (up to 80%) Investment generally lower than in crops

Aquaculture in Asia: Issues

Large and growing opportunities for farmed fish to address the key micronutrients and protein needs among poor consumers

Asia is the center of aquaculture

However, constraints to involve the poor in aquaculture remain

Limited access to resources Availability and high price of external inputs Capital investment Poorly performing markets Access to improved genetics

Investing in research for livestock in Asia: the next round of CRPs with partners

The new Livestock CGIAR Collaborative Research Program features four research pillars, all linked to national partner programs and priorities

1. Animal Health

2. Animal Genetics

3. Animal Feeds and Forages

4. Livelihoods and ASF Agri-food Systems

Cross cutting programs on Gender, Capacity Development and Nutrition

Investing in research for fish in Asia: the next round of CRPs with partnersThe new Fish CGIAR Collaborative Research Program features three research pillars, all linked to national partner programs and priorities

1. Integrated Sustainable Aquaculture

2. Sustaining Smallscale Fisheries

3. Fish Valuechains and Nutrition

Cross cutting programs on Gender and Capacity Building

Summary and Conclusions

• Demand for livestock and fish in Asia is outpacing that for staple crops

• Both comprise key components of food and nutritional security and support rural development

• Production is unlikely to be able to match that demand, threatening food and nutritional security

• Important to correct the imbalance of public investment to reflect the changing shares in Ag GDP and demand

• A strong partnership framework of national and international researchers is available and should be leveraged

CGIAR is a global partnership that unites organizations engaged in research for a food secure future. The CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish aims to increase the productivity of small-scale livestock and fish systems in sustainable ways, making meat, milk and fish more available and affordable across the developing world.

CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish

livestockfish.cgiar.org

Thank you for your attention