the online impact of privacy regulation: an early look at ... · the online impact of privacy...
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The online impact of privacy regulation: An early look at Europe’s GDPR
Sam Goldberg (Kellogg, Northwestern U) Garrett Johnson (Questrom, Boston U)
Scott Shriver (Leeds, U Colorado Boulder)
garjoh.comgarjoh_canuck
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GDPR General Data Protection Regulation
EUEEABrexit
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↑ costprocessing
personal data
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↓ marketing↓ data collection
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May 25 '18GDPR Enforcement
deadline
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GDPR impact on web outcomes
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1,508analytics
dashboards
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Recorded web outcomes = Total web outcomes * % recorded How does GDPR impact recorded EU web outcomes?
Total web outcomes % recorded
driv
en Marketing: increased cost of personalized marketing
Data minimization: sites may restrict site data collection or block EU users
Site
- ● Inbound marketing: e-mail (7%), display ads (3%) (Budak et al. 2016)
● We drop known cases where data collection stops
nU
ser-
driv
e
Privacy salience: privacy notices change consumer browsing
Consent: non-consenting users (may) not be recorded● GDPR consent rates reported as >90%
(Quantcast)
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Data: On-site analytics via Adobe Analytics● Panel: 1,508 analytics dashboards (RSID) ● Includes: e-commerce, corporate & content-based sites ● 421 dashboards with revenue outcome
Alexa top sites Sample representation
top 1K 128
top 10K 595
top 1M 2,594
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EU pageviews fall after May 25, 2018
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EU user site outcomes 2018 vs. 2017
Legend: 2018 2017
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Pageviews Visits Orders Revenue$8,000 weekly
revenueat the median
↓9.7%(st.err. 2.7%)
↓9.9%(2.5%)
↓5.6%(2.5%)
↓8.3%(2.9%)
All recorded web outcomes falldifference-in-differences estimates
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Synthetic controls 2017 vs. 2018 EU usersPageviews
↓11.6%Visits
↓10.0%
Orders Revenue↓6.7% ↓3.3%
Legend: 2018 2017 (synthetic control)
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Recorded web outcomes = Total web outcomes * % recorded Mechanism: Why do recorded EU web outcomes fall?
Marketing: Inbound traffic should fall for channels using personal information (e.g. e-mail)
Data minimization: We already drop known cases where data collection stops
% recordedTotal web outcomes
Privacy salience: Self-selection may change user quality measures
Consent: Self-selection may change user quality measures
Use
r-dr
iven
Si
te-d
riven
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Timespent per visit (logs)
But, no change in user quality metricsViews per visit
(logs)
Legend: 2018 2017
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% recordedTotal web outcomes
Bad for health of website & e-commerce serving EU
users
Bad for data-driven decision-making of website & e-
commerce serving EU users
Recorded web outcomes = Total web outcomes * % recorded
Recorded EU web outcomes fall ~10%
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GDPR impact on third party domains
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"The GDPR's early impact on Martech"*(work-in-progress)
• Data: 3rd party domains across 28K top EU+ websites• ↓14% 3rd party domains 1 week after May 25, rolled
back 6 months later– Largest drop on sites with least EU users (<20%)
• Market shrinks, but is less competitive in top martech categories (ads, hosting, web analytics, social media) – Sites usually choose dominant firm over other vendor:
DoubleClick (99%), Google APIs (75%), Google Analytics (94%), Facebook (88%)
*joint with Scott Shriver & Samuel Goldberg
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Value of a cookie
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"Consumer privacy choice in online advertising: Who opts out and at what cost to industry?"*
(conditional accept, Marketing Science)
• Study AdChoices self-regulatory program– User opt-out for online behavioral advertising
• Ad exchange data: 63M ad transactions– 10K+ advertisers, publishers
• Only 0.23% opt-out users in US impressions (1 in 441)• Opt-out users fetch 52% lower prices, all else equal• Publishers get 40% less revenue from opt-out users
*joint with Scott Shriver & Shaoyin Du