the off-highway vehicle market 2019...• interact analysis forecasts that the electrification...

Confidential. © 2017 Interact Analysis. All Rights Reserved.

The Off-Highway Vehicle Market – 2019Includes Global Vehicle Powertrain Forecast

Publishing June 2019

Jan Zhang

Research Director, China

[email protected]

+86 (21) 2050 1835

Alastair Hayfield

Research Director, UK

[email protected]

+44 (0) 1604 936 204

mailto:[email protected]


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Contents

The Global Off-highway Vehicle Market / June 2019

3

Global Off-highway Vehicle Market Summary

2018 Market Volume and Growth Forecast

Regional Share and Sales Forecast by Region

Electrification and Powertrain Technology

Electrified Off-highway Vehicle Market Sales Forecast

Electrification Drivers and Challenges

Drivers and Challenges for Off-highway Vehicle Electrification

Forecast Model

Emission Standard

Active and Planned Emission Zones Globally

Active and Planned Emission Zones in Europe

Diesel Bans and Zero Emission Construction

Low Emission Zones: active and proposed

Top 1000 cities with highest levels of PM10.0 air pollution

Global GDP per capita

Which cities might enact low emission zones?

Off-highway Vehicle Type and Its Impact on Electrification

Market Dynamics Overview

Full Electric - Lead Acid vs. Lithium-Ion

Lithium-Ion Battery Technology Analysis - Drivers and Barriers

Comparison of Mainstream Battery Chemistry and Package Type Characteristics

The Declining Cost of Lithium-ion Batteries

Hydrogen

Charging Infrastructure

Oil Price Forecast

Vehicle Analysis

Excavators

Loaders

Aerial Work Platforms

Lift Trucks

Underground LHD

Off-highway Trucks

Regional Analysis

North America Off-highway Vehicle Market

Europe Off-highway Vehicle Market

China Off-highway Vehicle Market

Competitive Landscape Analysis

Excavator Market Overview

Market Share Change for China Excavator Market - 2010 vs. 2018

Material Handling Equipment Market Overview – Aerial Work Platforms

Material Handling Equipment Market Overview – Lift Trucks

Companies Developing Electric Solutions for Off-highway Market


Contents


4

Methodology

Methodology

Methodology: Primary Research

Methodology: Secondary Research

Methodology: forecasting model

Definitions

Definitions: Off-highway Vehicles

Definitions: Powertrains


Global Off-highway Vehicle Market Summary


546,799

101,594

1,497

107,127

194,749

21,999

179,535

1,665,089

3,616 1,406

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2018

Excavator Backhoe Loader Crawler Loader

Skid-steer Loader Wheeled Loader Bulldozer

Aerial Work Platform (AWP) Lift Truck Off-highway Truck

Underground LHD

Global Off-highway Vehicle Sales Units - 2018

Source: Interact Analysis © 2019 Interact Analysis

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Excavator LoaderBulldozer Aerial Work Platform (AWP)Lift Truck Off-highway TruckUnderground LHD

Global Off-highway Vehicle Sales Forecast (2017 - 2028)


• For the global off-highway vehicle market, noticeable growth started in 2017

and lead to a strong 2018, with overall market unit shipments growing by

14%. This growth is forecast to slow down in 2019 for all segments.

• Lift truck is the largest segment in terms of units shipped, AWP is forecast to

see the highest CAGR during the forecast period of 9.3%.

• Material handling equipment is predicted to have stronger growth than

earth moving equipment. Light/compact equipment is forecast to see

stronger growth than heavy equipment.


6

Global Off-highway Vehicle Market2018 Market Volume and Growth Forecast

Excavator

Backhoe

LoaderCrawler

Loader

Skid-steer

Loader

Wheeled

Loader

Bulldozer

Aerial

Work

Platform

(AWP)

Lift Truck

Off-highway

Truck

Underground

LHD


0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

2017 2018 2023 2028

China India Japan South Korea

Rest of Asia Oceania North America Latin America

Europe Middle East & Africa

Off-highway Vehicle Sales Forecast - by Region


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Excavator

Loader

Bulldozer

AWP

Lift Truck

Off-highway Truck

Underground LHD

China India Japan Oceania South Korea Rest of Asia North America Latin America Europe Middle East & Africa

Global Off-highway Vehicle Market by Region - 2018


• China is the largest market for off-highway vehicles and will continue to be

the largest regional market during the forecast period.

• Among all the regions/countries analyzed in this report, India and China are

forecast to be the two fastest growing regional markets, with CAGR between

2017 and 2028 being 7.9% and 7.6% respectively.

• North America is the largest regional market for AWPs, loaders and

underground LHDs in 2018. China is the largest regional market for

excavators, bulldozers and lift trucks in 2018.


7

Global Off-highway Vehicle MarketRegional Share and Sales Forecast by Region



8

Global Off-highway Vehicle MarketElectrification and Powertrain Technology

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2017 2018 2023 2028

Mini Excavator Small Excavator Medium Excavator Large Excavator

Backhoe Loader Crawler Loader Skid-steer Loader Wheeled Loader

Bulldozer Boom Lift Scissor Lift Telehandler

Lift Truck Off-highway Truck Underground LHD

Off-highway Vehicle Electrification Penetration Rate - by Vehicle Type


• Interact Analysis forecasts that the electrification penetration rate for global

off-highway vehicles will increase from 38.7% in 2017 to 55% in 2028.

• Material handling equipment is far ahead of construction equipment in

electrification, with scissor lift leading the trend, followed by lift trucks. For

most construction equipment, the electrification penetration rate is less

than 2% currently. More clear movement towards electrification won’t start

until around 2023, under the pressure of stringent emission standards and

advances in technology development in batteries.

• Most heavy equipment will be slow in moving towards electrification except

for underground mining LHDs.

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ICE (Diesel, Bio-fuel) Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Full Electric Hydrogen Others

The Global Off-highway Vehicle Market by Powertrain




9

Global Off-highway Vehicle MarketElectrified Off-highway Vehicle Market Sales Forecast

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2,017 2,018 2,023 2,028

Un

it S

ale

s G

row

th R

ate

Un

it S

hip

me

nts

Mini Excavator Small ExcavatorMedium Excavator Large ExcavatorSkid-steer Loader Backhoe LoaderWheel Loader Crawler LoaderBulldozer Off-highway TruckUnderground LHD Boom LiftScissor Lift TelehandlerLift Truck Electrified Vehicles Sales Growth Rate

Electrified Off-highway Vehicle Market Sales Forecast - Global


0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2,017 2,018 2,023 2,028

Un

it S

ale

s G

row

th F

ore

ca

st

Un

it S

hip

me

nts

Mini Excavator Small Excavator Medium Excavator Large Excavator

Skid-steer Loader Backhoe Loader Wheel Loader Crawler Loader

Bulldozer Unit Sales Growth Rate

Electrified Construction Equipment Sales Forecast - Global


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2,017 2,018 2,023 2,028

Un

it S

ale

s G

row

th R

ate

Un

it S

hip

me

nts

Boom Lift Scissor Lift Telehandler Lift Truck Unit Sales Growth Rate

Electrified Material Handling Equipment Sales Forecast - Global



Electrification Drivers and Challenges


Drivers and Challenges for Off-highway Vehicle Electrification


11

•Off-highway engine emission standards

•Active and planned emission zones

•Size of the machine

Emission Standards

•Places where the vehicles are used

•Applications require zero emissions?

•Applications require zero noise?

Industry / Application Requirement

•Overall cost down

•Versatility offered by the technology

Economic Viability (TCO)

•Willingness to invest in electrification technology

•Political sentiment

OEM

•Up-front cost

•Total cost of ownership

•Reliability, safety

End-user

•Maturity of available technologies

•Engineering design/packaging

Duty-cycle Integration

•Regional trend

•Existing technology and its acceptance

Infrastructure Availability

• ICE (Diesel, Bio-fuel)

• Mild Hybrid

• Full Hybrid

• Full Electric

• Hydrogen

• Others

Powertrain Technologies

Drivers Challenges

• Emission legislation and standards set the framework for electrification. The timing of new stricter emission norms indicate

which regions are more likely to move faster with regard vehicle electrification. However, there is no one-solution-fits all

approach to electrification, and the corresponding approach for each vehicle type is determined by the needs of the

application first.

• For the moment, TCO seems to be barrier towards electrification. Apart from Japan who give subsidies to compensate the

increase initial cost, places where no subsidies given on electrified machines, such as US/Europe, there is limited motivation

in adopting electrification for new application. TCO will become a driver only when the technology route and component cost

comes down to a level that can compete with the cost of ICE system.

• There are many challenges, but the most manageable challenges are the technical ones. Much vehicle technologies are

available off the shelf, all that needed is to do the whole system integration and packaging them together. What is less

mature and less manageable are the sales, marketing, aftermarket, and customer-acceptance dimensions. For quite a few

market that got none of these technologies ready, this seems to be a big shift to take.


Forecast Model (1)


12

Where / When Electrification might take place?Emission Standards

Off-highway Vehicle Type

Size

Application

Duty Cycle

Economic Viability (TCO)

Technology

Infrastructure

Battery

Hydrogen

How does electrification trend vary by different vehicle type?

• Size (small – large) + Application ( rural – urban)

• Duty cycle (low – high productivity)

Different vehicle portfolio

and application by region

What technology is available ?

What does the development of these technologies look like?

What is the availability of charging infrastructure?

Regional readiness to new

technology will impact

supply, pricing,

technology, infrastructure,

and ultimately impact TCO

Region


Forecast Model (1)


13

• During interviews, Interact Analysis has identified emission standards, industry/application requirements and TCO as the main factors that impact the electrification

penetration rate for each vehicle type and country/region.

• Emission standards have a direct impact on electrification transition across all regions and vehicle types discussed in the report, determining when and where the trend

might start to take place.

• Following the emission standard analysis, models are created for each vehicle type based on their size/application/duty cycle, to quantify the drivers for each off-highway

vehicle type and use a combination weightings to help forecast their electrification penetration rate, which is a percentage of electrified off-highway vehicles out of the

total number of vehicles within a particular segment delivered annually.

• TCO estimates by different powertrains is a variable factor that will change during the forecast period, depending on the development of battery technology, hydrogen

technology and powertrain technology.

• The penetration rate is then applied to the underlying sales forecast to determine the absolute number of electric vehicles delivered annually for a particular segment.


Forecast Model (2)


14

2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 20282017

North America

EuropeJapan

China

India

South Korea

South America

Oceania

Rest of Asia

Middle East & Africa ❶ ❷

❸How emission standards and the application that these

vehicle types are involved in is going to impact the

electrification penetration rate for each vehicle type.

From a customer request perspective

1. What are the important factors to take into

consideration when making a strategic decision

towards electrification (projected by weighting)

2. For different powertrain technologies, what are their

advantages and disadvantages respectively, and

which powertrain is more likely to dominate

(projected by final score)

In which region and when, electrification might take place

Lift Trucks WeightingICE (Diesel,

Bio-fuel)

Mild

HybridFull Hybrid Full Electric Hydrogen Others

Initial Cost 14 1 0 0 2 -1 0

Lifetime Cost (TCO) 15 1 1 1 2 2 1

Performance and Productivity 10 1 1 1 1 1 1

Energy Density 9 1 1 1 2 2 1

Charging Efficiency 10 1 1 1 2 2 1

Engineering Design / Packaging Impact 2 1 0 0 2 2 1

Reliability 9 1 0 0 2 2 1

Maintenance 9 1 0 0 2 2 0

Safety 5 1 1 1 1 1 1

Infrastructure / technology availability 6 1 1 1 2 1 1

Environmental Impact 11 1 2 2 3 3 2

Total 100 100 77 77 196 148 88

Emission

StandardApplication

Mini Excavator (<6t) 5 4 9

Small Excavator (6-13t) 4 4 8

Medium Excavator (13-30t) 3 2 5

Large Excavator (>30t) 2 2 4

Wheeled Loaders 3 3 6

Backhoe Loaders 3 2 5

Crawler Loaders 3 2 5

Skid-Steer Loaders 3 2 5

Bulldozers 2 2 4

Off-highway Trucks 1 1 2

Underground LHD 1 5 6

Boom Lifts 4 5 9

Scissor Lifts 5 5 10

Tele-handlers 3 4 7

Lift Trucks 5 5 10


Emission Standard (1)

• The Tier 4 final emissions regulations in the US and Stages IV in Europe are currently the strictest emission standards worldwide. This does not only

impact the engine design and development in these two regions, but also becomes a driving factor in electrification. Older and generally less

stringent emission regulations are in force in other markets. With other markets looking to introduce similar emissions controls in the future, those

manufacturers who developing strategies and products to meet the strictest standards will benefit economically in the long fun from developing

these sophisticated technologies.

• Regulatory authorities in Europe, USA, and Japan have been under pressure from engine and equipment manufacturers to align worldwide emission

standards, to streamline engine development and emission type approval/certification for different markets. European Stage I/II limits were in part

harmonized with US regulations. Stage III/IV requirements were harmonized to a large degree with the US Tier 3/4 standards. However, Stage V lost

some harmonization, with the Stage V PN limits requiring diesel particulate filters (DPF) on all affected engines, while the US Tier 4 standards can

be met without filters.

• Owing to the very strong influence of the government on policy, China will go to a similar level in emission norms aligned with Tier 4 and Stage IIIB

when China Phase IV starts to be implemented. The tentative implementation date of the Phase IV is January 2020. However, some uncertainty

exists over the exact implementation date. And with the current economic slow-down in China and trade war impact, the implementation time is

very likely to be delayed until 2021.

• With the extended service intervals and lower fuel consumption of compliant machines, end-users will start to see the economic benefits from

buying low emission equipment over the mid-long term. This, together with other markets looking to introduce similar emission controls in the near

future, means other developing regions will follow quickly on the electrification trends that are set by Europe/US. Over the years, there will be less

difference in the level of electrification among all major regions.


15

Off-highway engine emission standards


Emission Standard (2)


16

Off-highway engine emission standards

EU

US

Japan

China

EU

US

Japan

China

EU

US

Japan

China

EU

US

Japan

China

EU

US

Japan

China

2014 Regulation2011 Regulation2006 Regulation

19-37kW

37-56kW

56-75kW

75-130kW

130-560kW

Stage IIIB Stage IV

Stage IIIA

2007 Regulation 2013 Regulation

2008 Regulation 2013 Regulation

2012 Regulation 2015 Regulation2008 Regulation

Interim Tier 4 Tier 4

Stage V

Interim Tier 4 Tier 4

2020

Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192009 2010 2011 2012 2013



Phase I Phase II Phase III

Interim Tier 4Teir 3 Tier 4

Tier 3 Interim Tier 4

Stage IIIA Stage V


Stage IIIB Stage IV

Tier 3 Interim Tier 4 Tier 4

Tier 4

Stage IIIA Stage III B

Phase IV

Stage VStage IV

2015 Regulation2012 Regulation2007 Regulation

Stage IIIA Stage V

Stage IIIA Stage IIIB Stage V


Active and Planned Emission Zones Globally


17

Active and Planned Emission Zones Globally - Europe has taken a lead with city level regulations and bans

Globally, the

overwhelming majority of

low emission zones are in

Europe. However, as will

be seen on the following

slide, this represents a

real mix of standards,

with some cities opting

for or proposing near total

bans on diesel and petrol;

vehicles, with others

enforcing low

requirements.


Active and Planned Emission Zones in Europe


18

Germany has the most zones, but most are only have a very low standard

Europe has the most low emission zones, with some having been

in place since before the millennium. London and Paris probably

have the most ambitious plans and schemes – looking to ban or

significantly reduce all polluting vehicles. Germany has the most

zones, but these typically have a low minimum standard – Euro 1

for petrol or Euro 4 for diesel. In essence many older, heavily

polluting vehicles can still be driven and it is debatable how much

impact these zones actually have.

However, proposed zones have much stricter standard – Euro 5 or

6, and London is proposing a specific focus on non-road mobile

machinery. As London is typically the lead, it is expected that other

major cities will enact zero or ultra-low emission zones in Europe.


Diesel Bans and Zero Emission Construction


19

Multiple countries proposing petrol and diesel car bans. Construction and mining initiatives for zero emission

Oslo to trial

construction of

buildings with

zero emissions

from construction

equipment

London to trial

NRMM projects

that limit

emissions from

construction

equipment

Volvo CE actively

running a zero

emission mining

site


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6

Nu

mb

er

of

LE

Z

Emission Standard

Active Low Emission Zones

Both Diesel Petrol

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6

Nu

mb

er

of

LE

Z

Emission Standard

Proposed Low Emission Zones

Both Diesel Petrol

Low Emission Zones: active and proposed

For proposed emission zones, there is a significant increase in the ‘minimum’ standard versus existing zones. This is a positive,

but still means many zones in Europe only ban the oldest vehicles, leaving many cities still relatively heavily polluted.



Top 1000 cities with highest levels of PM10.0 air pollution


21

Based on data collected by the World Health Organization (WHO), it is possible to establish those countries with the most polluted cities

Those countries with the

worst air pollution

(particulate matter

scores) in cities are China

and India. Other emerging

economies also perform

badly. These countries do

not have active low

emission zones. If China

or India, or individual

cities within those

countries, were to restrict

emissions, this could act

as an important drive

toward electrified off-

highway equipment


Global GDP per capita


22

Those regions with low PM10.0 emissions and emission zones have highest GDP per capita

Current and planned

emission zones are,

almost exclusively,

located in regions of the

world with high GDP per

capita and relatively good

air quality scores.

Ironically, the areas that

need them most are least

able to afford a transition

to newer technology. This

may well act as a drag on

the market for electrified

off-highway equipment.


41%

59%

Of leading Mercer cities,

does city already have

existing or planned low

emission zone?

Y N

15%

85%

Of leading Mercer cities without

existing or planned emission

zones, do other cities in the

same country have emission

zones?

Y N

• Tokyo

• Chicago

• San Francisco

• Philadelphia

• Boston

• Singapore

• Seattle

• Toronto

• Sydney

• Melbourne

• Montreal

• Dublin

• Brisbane

• Perth

• Vancouver

• Zürich

• Calgary

• Honolulu

• Adelaide

• Ottawa

• Auckland

• Geneva


23

Which cities might enact low emission zones?The Mercer Quality of Living Survey ranks cities on their quality of life. This is a primary driver in the ‘political

Using the distribution of harmful particulate emissions, the Mercer survey, city GDP

and the presence of existing emission zones, it is possible to locate other cities

which may look to adopt emission standards for political/social reasons in the next

5-7 years.

Cities that may enact low emission zone




24

Machine Size and Its Application

Now 2-5 years 6-10 year horizon

Small and

compact

equipment

Medium-size

equipment

Large-size

equipment

<37kW

37-55kW

55-130kW

130-225kW

225-560kW

>560kW

Specialized Underground Mining

Equipment – Underground LHD

• Compact equipment & material handling <37kW

• Lift trucks, scissor type AWP, mini excavator and

wheeled loader, etc.)

• used indoors or requiring zero fume / zero noise

• Starts & selective replacement of attachments

• Diesel downsizing for small equipment <56kW

(boom type AWP, telehandlers, Mini & Small

excavator etc.)

• Full replacement of mechanical attachments

• Diesel downsizing for larger equipment >56kW

• Diesel downsizing for larger equipment >160kW

• Small construction & residential equipment <56kW

• Material handling equipment – boom type AWP,

compact Telehandler

• Construction equipment – wheeled loader, Skid-

steer loader, Small and medium excavator used in

urban cities

• Small construction & agricultural equipment >56kW

• Telehandler, small tractors, small excavators,

wheeled loaders used in low emission zone

Full Electric Hybrid



• Although emission legislation has been one of the key drivers for off-highway vehicle electrification, when examining vehicles used for different industrial

applications, there are also requirements for electrification for reasons beyond emission reduction.

• Indoor applications - as the construction process advances a building becomes more closed, even sealed completely from the outside environment, the use of

battery powered electric machines gain a huge advantage as these machines provide a clean, quiet power source for such conditions. And lower cost than

using different machines for outside and inside.

• Safety – underground mining has extremely high requirements for safety, sustainability and zero harm to workers. Electrified vehicles can help to create

emission free mining environment and also cut down the cost of ventilation related to higher temperatures at greater depths and the use of diesel equipment,

to improve employee health.

• Digitalization and intelligence – there has been an increasing emphasize on digitalization and intelligence of solutions for many of the off-highway vehicles.

Although it’s not essential to have fully electric machine to enable digitalization and intelligence (many autonomous mining truck today already have well

developed autonomous solution whilst they’re propelled by diesel engine), a fully electric equipment will make the design more integrated, and can easily

monitor the status of all electric components such as motors, actuators. In addition, from a marketing perspective, fully electric solution will make the brand

and design more futuristic.


25

Industry / Application Requirement



26

Market Dynamics Overview (1)Challenges – Duty-cycle Integration

Low Duty Cycle / Energy Demand High

Static

Factory Site

Motor Way

Construction Site

Op

era

tin

g R

an

ge

/ In

fra

str

uctu

re A

va

ila

bilit

y

Full Electric

Combustion

Engine

Aerial Work

Platform (Scissor)

Lift Truck

Class 1 – Class 3

Aerial Work Platform

Lift Truck

Class 4&5

Mini Excavator

Small Excavator

Medium Excavator

Large Excavator

Bulldozer

Wheeled LoaderTelehandler

Wheeled Loader

Wheeled Loader

Backhoe Loader

Skid-Steer Loader

5 5 - 1 3 0 k W & 1 3 0- 2 2 5 k W 2 2 5 - 5 6 0 k W & > 5 6 0 k W< 3 7 k W & 3 7 - 5 5 k W

Skid-Steer Loader

Low Duty Cycle / Energy Demand High

Static

Factory Site

Motor Way

Construction Site

Op

era

tin

g R

an

ge

/ In

fra

str

uctu

re A

va

ila

bilit

y

Full Electric

Vehicle Weight – Small / Compact

Power needed – Low to medium

Productivity – Low to medium

Duty cycle - Low

Powertrain – full electric, hybrid

Infrastructure Availability –

Recuperation and good charging

potential

Vehicle Weight – Medium to heavy

Power Needed – Medium to high

Productivity – Medium

Duty cycle – Low to Medium

Powertrain – full electric, hybrid,

tethered


Remote use but infrequent charging

demand

Vehicle Weight – Medium to Heavy

Power – High

Productivity – Medium to high

Duty cycle – Medium to high

Powertrain – full electric, hybrid,

tethered


High load and availability

Vehicle Weight - Compact

Power – Medium

Productivity – Medium

Duty cycle - Medium

Powertrain – full electric, hybrid


High load and plannable shift

Combustion

Engine

Off-highway TruckUnderground LHD


Market Dynamics Overview (1)


27

Challenges – Duty-cycle Integration

• The challenges are

1. the energy storage method

2. limiting machine consumption of that stored energy

3. the ability to quickly generate or replace that energy again

• The major challenge comes down to the primary function of the machine’s power plant: is the primary function to propel or is it to provide cylinder movements?

Is the machine set up so that the machine is always moving with implement-type motion or to position the machine and then to work such as lift and lower or

extend/retract, then move again and repeat? The answers to these questions will shape how companies in this industry react in the next years.

• One must also ask whether there will be electric actuators that can replace the power density of the hydraulics. For moving the vehicle, there seem to be trends

towards electrics based on success in automotive and on-highway applications but the use and power consumption rate for off-highway/construction

equipment has to be evaluated. For actuators, this remains an open topic.

• Some machines are already quite static and become even more static if there are changes at the site. This opens the possibility of powering them by cables

hooked into the grid. Or sites might develop their own local electric grid with storage, and this could include renewable energy such as wind and solar at the

site.

• As technology advances, there will be successes in the on-highway sector regarding the ability to “power” vehicles such as Class 8 trucks, perhaps with

hydrogen fuel cells. There will also be improvements in reliability and safety. It is expected that technology transfer into the off-highway sector from trucks and

buses in the categories of medium and larger construction vehicles will happen. There are certainly hybrid technologies such as diesel or gasoline and electric

that are already being used, but switching over to a hydrogen-based energy economy requires new infrastructure to produce and distribute the fuel to power

these machines.



• The total cost of ownership (TCO) plays a pivotal role in the trend towards electrification. Given the B2B nature of the industry, some customers are typically less

concerned with the up-front cost; focusing instead on the overall cost throughout the ownership of the vehicle.

• Today, only a few material handling equipment types which are used mainly indoors or in urban city areas, have shown that the TCO of the battery electric off-

highway vehicle is cheaper than its diesel counterpart over the lifetime. For the majority of off-highway vehicles, there is no obvious cost benefits in developing

electrified equipment, as well as the opportunity cost of potentially investing in a technology which will cost far less in the future. The total cost of ownership

has to be proven for large market share increases beyond niche application for electric power machines.

• Once the total cost (upfront + operating costs) over a four to six year period for a battery electric commercial vehicle reaches parity with an equivalent diesel

model, most operators will likely choose the battery electric option resulting in mass adoption. In scenarios where the pay back time is longer than six years,

the demand will primarily come from early adopters resulting in low overall market volumes.

• As with any new technology, the total cost is initially high. But with continued advancements in charging infrastructure, battery technology, and fast charging-

technology that will overcome the major engineering challenges. In addition, as electrification takes hold across many markets, the component costs will

decrease. Off-highway vehicles will also benefit from advances in adjacent markets such as transit buses and Class 6,7 and 8 trucks.

• Electric power will make vehicles more productive by using more efficient subsystems sized to do the work, including high-efficiency electric motors and

generators, and combined electrohydraulic actuators. Electric motors do not require the service attention of engines, such as oil changes, filter changes, or hot

and cold temperature fluid requirements. Higher levels of component integration into sub-systems will further drive down costs and further reduce vehicle

weight and size.


28

Challenges – Economic Viability (TCO)




29

TCO Model, simplistic (doesn’t include cost of credit, amortization, etc.)

Machine Cost

Annual Maintenance Cost

Annual Fuel Cost

Diesel ModelMachine Cost +20%


Annual Fuel Cost

-10% to -20%

Hybrid ModelMachine Cost +50%


20% to -50%

Annual Fuel Cost

Battery price per kw price

Annual Electricity cost in the county

Battery ModelMachine Cost +50%


Annual Fuel Cost

Hydrogen Model

• With the exception of underground mines, mining facilities will be slow to adopt all but the smallest of fully electric machines. Likely see hybrids for these applications

in the mid-term where there is a strong TCO. If no TCO, remain diesel

• Urban machines will be fully electric in 10 years UNLESS the machine must operate a long way from charging and/or charging access is limited i.e. excavator working

along trainline or motorway. Local emission standards supersede this – machines will remain diesel if no legislation to push it

• Machines used remote to urban areas i.e. small towns, cities or where they are only there for temporary time (i.e. one- or two-day’s rental), will be slower to fully

electrify.

Diesel or, within 3 years

some hybridization

depending upon

country and regional

emission norm.

Where TCO benefit, some move to hybrid or electric ahead of the emission standard or move to low emission

zones. Depends upon battery size, fuel price, duty cycle, etc.

Electric for all machine

types, size and duty

cycle. May need

hydrogen as fuel to

achieve this for larger

machines. Zero

emission zone

supercedes use of

technology based on

size or duty cycle



• ICE - Combustion engines will remain important for many years to come as they are designed to be more and more efficient.

• Hybrid solutions - Hybrids will play a role in the journey toward full electric. The versatility offered by the hybrid powertrain makes it a lower-cost solution to

stringent emissions regulation because it can be used both indoors and out. That means hybrid solutions will save on transportation costs and minimize time

inefficiencies associated with waiting for machines to be delivered.

• Full battery solutions – whilst weight, charge times for batteries and run times have improved, massive adoption of battery-powered light equipment over

traditional gas or diesel-driven machines has yet to materialize. Prices for batteries and hybrid systems are coming down but not to the point where they are

mainstream. They need to be durable and reliable. However, with battery technology now being used in passenger vehicles and on-highway vehicles, mass

production of battery will help to lower the price while improving battery capacity and performance to the point where they can be more widely adopted with

confidence.

• Hydrogen solutions - Hydrogen will be an important parallel approach to electrification. However, the current technology is still immature and expensive for

heavy duty applications and there is a limited supplier base. All of this combines to make hydrogen the least viable technology route at the moment.


30

Technology Route



31

Full ElectricLead Acid vs. Lithium-Ion

Lead Acid Lithium-Ion

Charging Time 8-10 hours 0.5-3 hours

Cost Initial

Cost

one of the cheapest batteries

available on the market, both in its

initial cost as well as cost per kWh

initial cost of lithium-ion

batteries is about 50% higher

than lead acid batteries but its

cost per mile is lower than

lead acid.

Lifecycle

Cost

Resilience irreversibly damaged if discharged too

quickly or deeply.

Will lose potential cycles if they’re

discharged below 50% of their state of

charge

can be discharged to about

80% of their state of charge

Cycle Lifetime 400-1500 (average) 2000-3000 (average, if used

properly)

Weight, Size &

Storage

Lead Acid battery is heavier than Lithium-Ion one. Therefore, using

lithium ion batteries allows space for other important payloads

Energy Density 50-90 Wh/L 125-600+ Wh/L

Charging Method When charging, need to take the

battery out from the lift truck and

place in charging base

Vehicles can be plugged

directly to the wall for charging

without taking battery out

Reliability Mature supply chain and reliable

performance

The supply is not fully secured

yet during this early stage, and

reliability needs to be proved

• Full electric powertrains are already widely used in material handling

equipment, e.g. lift trucks and aerial work platforms, and for which, lead-

acid batteries have been the main source of power for quite a few years

already. Lead acid is a popular, cost-effective battery chemistry, available in

large quantities with little worries relating to security of the supply and in a

variety of off the shelf pack sizes.

• Lithium-ion batteries have become the “full electric” option for passenger

vehicles and on-highway buses and trucks and are now moved to off-

highway vehicle market.

• The figure on the left side compares some of the key parameters of lead

acid and lithium-ion battery. Although lithium-ion batteries have advantages

over lead acid batteries in quite a few criteria, cost/security of

supply/reliability and safety will remain the main concerns for customers.

•


Lithium-Ion Battery Technology Analysis - Drivers and Barriers

Drivers:Political

Sentiment

Economic Viability

(TCO)

Environmental

Policy

Passenger Vehicle 4 3 4

Bus 5 3.5 3

Truck 3 4 5

Off-Highway Vehicle 5 5 5

Two-Wheeler/Trike 4.5 3 4

ESS 3 2 3

CE 2 1 1

Political

Sentiment

Economic Viability

(TCO)

Environmental

Policy

China 5 3 5

Japan 4 4 4

South Korea 3 4 3

Rest of APAC 3 2 3

Austria 3 3 3

Czech Republic 3 3 3

France 4 3 4

Germany 4 4 4

Hungary 3 3 3

Poland 3 3 3

Sweden 3 4 5

The United Kingdom 4 4 4

Rest of EMEA 3 3 4

Canada 3 3 3

USA 3 3 3

Rest of Americas 3 2 2

Barriers:

Up-Front Cost Consumer

AcceptanceInfrastructure

Technical

bottleneck

Passenger Vehicle 4 5 5 5

Bus 3 3 4 3

Truck 4.5 5 5 4

Off-Highway Vehicle 5 5 4 4

Two-Wheeler/Trike 3 4 3 2

ESS 2 2 2 3

CE 1 2 1 2

Up-Front Cost Consumer

AcceptanceInfrastructure

Technical

bottleneck

China 5 4 4 2.5

Japan 3 2 2 2

South Korea 3 2 3 2

Rest of APAC 4 4 4 4

Austria 3 3 3 3.5

Czech Republic 3 3 3 3.5

France 3 3 3 3

Germany 3 3 2 3

Hungary 3 3 4 3.5

Poland 3 3 4 3.5

Sweden 2 2 3 3

The United Kingdom 3 3 3 3

Rest of EMEA 3 2 3 3.5

Canada 3 3 3 3

USA 3 3 3 2

Rest of Americas 3 3 3 4

• Political Sentiment：Including industrial policies

and plans of governments other than

environmental protection/emissions, such as

energy structure, etc.

• Economic Viability (TCO)：Including the first

purchase cost, oil and electricity price difference,

maintenance costs and so on.


32

Development in different regions and applications – costs, emissions policies, technological breakthroughs and supporting facilities

Source: Interact Analysis © 2019 Interact Analysis Source: Interact Analysis © 2019 Interact Analysis

Return to ToC


Comparison of Mainstream Battery Chemistry and Package Type Characteristics

Energy Density

C-Rate

Safety

CostPower Density

Life

Standardization

Chart Title

Passenger Vehicle

Bus

Truck

Off-Highway Vehicle

Two-Wheeler/Trike

Energy Storage System

Consumer Electronics

Importance of Battery Characteristics in Different Applications


Energy

Density

C-Rate

Safety

CostPower

Density

Life

Standardiza

tion

Chart Title

LFP

NMC/NCA

LCO

LMO

Comparison of Technical Indicators of Different Battery Chemistry


Energy Density

C-Rate

Safety

CostPower

Life

Standardization

Chart Title

Cylindrical

Prismatic

Pouch/Polymer

Comparison of Technical Indicators of Different Package Type



33

Choice of battery technology route – no best option, only the most suitable

Return to ToC


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Production Capacity(GWh) Capacity Utilisation Rate (%) Average Battery Price (USD/kWh)

Average LIB Price vs. Production Capacity vs. Capacity Ultilization Rate (2013 - 2023E)


Key Factors Driving Cost Reduction And Performance Improvement For Lithium-ion Batteries

The Declining Cost of Lithium-ion Batteries

• As can be seen from the bottom left figure, global capacity utilization of lithium-ion

batteries continues to locate below 70% from 2018 to 2023, which is a direct

signal for the further decline of Li-ion battery price.

• At present, the raw material cost (including cathode material, anode material,

separator and electrolyte) still leave enough room for further price reduction of Li-

ion batteries. According to the data released by CATL, in 2018, the cost of raw

materials for its prismatic LFP cell and NCM 523 cell are 40.58 USD/kWh and

63.77 USD/kWh, while the price excluding tax were 149.27 USD/kWh and 162.31

USD/kWh, respectively. Even considering the cost of labor, plant and equipment

depreciation, the margin for cell price decline is still greater than 30%.

• The long-term reduction of battery cost must depend on the improvement of

battery energy density and production efficiency:

1. By increasing the compaction density of electrodes, thinning separators, and

increasing the nickelization of cathode electrodes. This increases the energy density

of batteries and decreases the cost of materials per unit energy.

2. By improving the level of automation in production lines and introducing whole-line

manufacturing equipment to increase production efficiency.

• As the most sensitive application area for battery costs, the electrification process

of electric truck and off-highway vehicles is largely limited by battery price.

According to multiple interviews conducted by Interact Analysis, if the average

battery price drops below 100 USD/kWh, the penetration rate of electrification will

increase rapidly under the premise of policy stimulus and environmental

intervention.

Li-ion Battery Pack Cost

Battery Cell

Material Cost

Production Scale

Average Battery

Capacity

Battery Management

System

Cell Size

Structural Design

Production Equipment

Automation Efficiency

Procurement Mode


34

The average battery price will drop another 30% by 2023, so the penetration rate in price-sensitive applications may soar

Return to ToC


Hydrogen

The largest or most power intensive off-highway machinery – large excavators, combines, large tractors, etc. – are unlikely to be suitable for electrification using a

battery given the power requirements and length of charging. However, in regions or locations that require machines to be low or zero emission, electrification may

be the only option. To achieve this, hydrogen fuel cells are one obvious choice – they can be refuelled more easily/quickly and provide potentially greater power

density. Volvo and SINTEF have developed prototype machines that use hydrogen.

Serious research and product development is happening in the on-highway and marine markets with regard hydrogen fuel cells. Several truck and bus

manufacturers have developed hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and, in the marine market, trials of very large hydrogen fuel stacks are being conducted to test the

viability for use in large vessels. China is also actively supporting the development of a hydrogen economy, seeing it as a route to advance its ‘made in China’

initiative and also electrify vehicle applications which aren’t suitable for battery electric vehicles.

Opportunities

• Currently, there is a small pool of companies focusing on hydrogen fuel cell development, particularly for the off-highway market. There is an opportunity for

new vendors to enter the market.

• If hydrogen is to be used in off-highway applications, transporting and storing at remote locations needs to be considered. This may require equipment that is

mobile (it can relocated) and hydrogen transport vehicles that can handle difficult terrain. Again, there is an opportunity for companies that can solve this

problem. One solution may be to develop local hydrogen generation (from renewables), but this is expensive and may not be suitable for sites that are

temporary in nature.


35


Charging Infrastructure (1)

One of the major challenges associated with on-highway electric vehicles – both passenger and commercial – is the provision of adequate charging facilities and

the capacity of both the local and national electrical grid infrastructure to cope with large numbers of vehicles charging at the same time. The off-highway market

is no different; however, it faces the additional challenge that vehicles are often used in locations that are remote and not connected to the grid. Furthermore, in

certain applications – for example, construction – sites may only be temporary.

In the commercial vehicle market, particularly the bus market, vendors of electric buses have found that they need to a sell a ‘solution’ that not only delivers the

buses, but also includes charging infrastructure, grid connection, grid stabilisation and route planning/consultation. This has changed the sales process – and

business model – for these vendors and indicates an opportunity for a vendor to do the same in the off-highway market. Currently, very few off-highway machine

builders or suppliers are focusing on an infrastructure solution, particularly one that caters to the specific needs of off-highway.

• For construction sites, particularly those that may be in place temporarily, the provision of on-site charging is challenging. If the site is remote, hydrogen fuel cell

generators may be required. If the site is in an urban area, the grid connection/stabilisation and charging equipment may need to be ‘mobile’, with the ability to

be ‘lifted out’ and used at another location.

• For larger operators looking to switch to electric machinery, they may require significant support, particularly with operational issues i.e. how to plan charging,

machine use, etc. There is a role for a company to help facilitate the move to electric machinery.

• In remote locations – such as mines – power may need to be provided from a number of sources, potentially all renewable. Provision of these renewables and

of the micro-grid is an opportunity.


36



Hydrogen Suppliers & Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) Automakers, Air Liquide, Hyundai, NEL, Nikola Motor, Shell and Toyota have signed a Memorandum of

Understanding (MOU) for hydrogen fuelling components, for the purpose of testing state of the art heavy duty (HD) hydrogen fuelling hardware to assist in

standardization and speed to market for fuel cell electric trucks.

This cross-industry group of both vehicle and infrastructure companies has signed an MOU with the purpose to test pre-commercial 70MPa hydrogen heavy duty

vehicle high flow (H70HF) fuelling hardware for future Class 8 (40 Ton) trucks. The industry group has created specifications for the fuelling nozzle, vehicle

receptacle, dispenser hose and breakaway device components for this HD application for the purpose of developing Request for Proposals to suppliers.

This industry group is requesting notification of suppliers’ intent to participate in a pre-commercial development and test program designed specifically for this

fuelling hardware. The fuelling hardware samples will undergo performance tests in accordance with the appropriate SAE/ISO/CSA industry standards along with

additional aspects for this emerging market.

Amongst all the challenges faced by the nascent hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicle market, standardisation is an important and often over-looked one. To

facilitate the roll-out of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles it will be necessary to standardise the fuelling infrastructure so that different brands and operators can rely on

the same basic infrastructure.

The benefit for off-highway is that much of the work will be ‘done already’ by the on-highway market and there won’t be need to duplicate effort when it comes to

fuelling infrastructure. That said, it may be beneficial for an off-highway vendor or supplier to join this industry group so that the particular needs of the off-

highway market are heard.

xxxx

37

Industry Group Signs MOU To Develop and Test Hydrogen Fuelling Hardware for Heavy Duty Vehicles



AFC Energy, an industrial fuel cell power company, recently announced the successful deployment of CH2ARGETM, the world’s first electric vehicle charger based

on hydrogen fuel-cell technology.

CH2ARGE includes AFC Energy’s small-scale fuel cell connected to an inverter similar to those used by Toyota at its electric vehicle research centre. The inverter

transfers energy created by the fuel cell to a charger. The system is supported by a 48V battery pack to assist with peak power demands. The solution can also be

tailored for both on and off grid applications and scale up as required. The demonstration CH2ARGE system was sized to provide sufficient power to charge two

EVs concurrently at recharging levels 1,2 or 3. The system’s inverters are controlled via AFC Energy’s fuel cell control system which ensures the safe and precise

control of the complete setup. Being integrated into AFC Energy’s control system means that product solutions can be implemented with Smart Charging

capabilities.

xxxx

38

Ability to provide electricity at remote sites of primary interest to off-highway machinery vendors

One of the largest challenges for electrification of the off-highway market is the provision of

charging facilities in remote locations or at temporary sites. Many mines or construction sites

will be located away from grid connections or, particularly for construction sites, only of a

temporary nature. Operating electric machinery in these locations will be challenging without

on-site power generation. The solution from AFC Energy may be a model for future electricity

generation at remote sites.

It’s also worth noting that in late 2018 Taylor Construction Plant (TCP) partnered with

Intelligent Energy to develop a hydrogen fuel cell power generator for on-site power generation

at construction sites. It’s capable of supplying 1000W DC or 5kW with an inverter.

https://www.intelligent-energy.com/news-and-events/company-news/2018/10/01/intelligent-energy-and-tcp-ltd-taylor-construction-plant-launch-off-grid-hydrogen-fuel-cell-power-product-designed-to-meet-the-changing-needs-of-the-construction-industry/


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030

Na

tura

l ga

s p

rice

($

/m

mb

tu)

Cru

de

oil p

rice

($

/b

bl)

World Bank Commodity Forecasts, Energy (nominal US dollars)

Crude oil, average ($/bbl)

Natural gas, Europe ($/mmbtu)

Natural gas, US ($/mmbtu)

Natural gas LNG, Japan ($/mmbtu)

• Following the dramatic decline in oil price seen through the 2007-9 financial

crisis, prices have steadily risen but still have exceeded $100/bbl. The

World Bank is forecasting that crude oil prices (and natural gas prices) will,

outside of a significant economic shock, remain relatively constant out to

2030.

• The re-emergence of the US as a major energy producer in the last 10 years

has undoubtedly expanded production capacity and helped to keep energy

prices low.

• If oil prices remain fairly consistent, hybrid and electric technologies are

likely to become more favourable as the cost of batteries and scaled

production fall over the next 5-7 years.

• Overall fuel consumption in automotive is likely to increase as emerging

markets look to purchase new, petrol/diesel cars. However, emission rules

and the growth of hybrid and electric vehicles may dampen demand in

mature markets, lessening the overall impact. This may also help to keep

fuel prices in a ‘steady state’.

XXXX

39

Oil Price ForecastWorld Bank forecasts ‘steady state’ for energy prices out to 2030


Vehicle Analysis

Confidential. © 2019 Interact Analysis. All Rights Reserved. 41

Excavators (1)Global Excavator Market Overview


• Mini excavator is the largest vehicle segment of the global excavator market, and

its share is forecast to continue increase from 36.6% in 2018 to 40% in 2028, in

unit terms.

• China accounted for 39% of the global excavator market in 2018 in unit terms,

followed by Europe with a share of 22%, and North America 15%.

• China and India saw solid growth in excavator market in the past two years, with

unit shipments increased by nearly 45% and 29% respectively in 2018 over 2017.

Advanced markets like Europe and North America also saw positive demand

growth and unit sales grew by nearly 10% in 2018. However, most regions are

forecast to see a slow down in growth from 2019.

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

CA

GR

Un

it S

hip

me

nt

Mini Excavator (<6t) Small Excavator (6-13t) Medium Excavator (13-30t)

Large Excavator (>30t) Growth Rate

Global Excavator Market (2017-2028)


China 39%

Europe

22%

North America

15%

Japan 10%

Rest of Asia 7%

Latin

America 2%

Oceania 1%Middle East & Africa

1%

South Korea 3%Others 14%

Global Excavator Market - Regional Market Share 2018



• Interact Analysis forecasts that electrified excavators will only achieve a

penetration rate of 13% in 2028 of the global excavator market.

• Mini excavators, which operate in urban workplaces close to residential areas, will

be a prime candidate to electrify to meet zero-emission and low noise

requirements in the near future. This category is forecast to have the highest

penetration rate of 17% in 2028. Whilst large excavator is forecast to have the

lowest penetration rate of 8.6% in 2028.

• As excavators have been used in many different applications and environments,

covering a broad range of power ratings, from less than 37kW, to over 225kW, this

category has experimented with various electrification options.

• Due to the zero-emission requirement in cities, mini excavators took the battery

electric route already.

• Medium excavator have used hybrid solutions for many years, strongly driven by

Japanese suppliers like Hitachi / Komatsu / Kobelco; however, it takes over 6 years to

pay back the extra initial cost on hybrid machines. A low TCO benefit plus more

complicated maintenance work has limited acceptance with end-users and, unless an

incentive is given, take up on new equipment is low.

• Large excavators are, typically, used in places where less strict emission standards are

in place, so there is the least motivation to change to electrified vehicles. As an

electric machine tend to be more efficient than their ICE counterparts. In the short

term, tethered is the best solution to get better TCO which has already been adopted

and proven by underground mining machine. This is a cheaper and more reliable

solution than battery solution and might be applied to large excavators which are used

in a relatively static application and have good access to power supply. In the long

wrong, whether full battery solution will enable a lower TCO depends on the

development of battery technology.

42

Excavators (2)Electrification Trend

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Electrified Non-electrified

Global Electrified Excavator Market Penetration


Excavators WeightingICE (Diesel,

Bio-fuel)

Mild

Hybrid

Full

Hybrid

Full Battery

Electric

Hydrogen

(Fuel Cell)Others

Initial Cost 14 1 0 0 -1 -2 0



Energy Density 9 1 1 1 -1 0 1





Safety 5 1 1 1 1 1 1

Infrastructure / technology availability 9 1 1 1 0 -1 1


Total 100 100 90 90 107 35 101


Excavators (3)Electrification Penetration Rate by Vehicle Type

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Mini Excavators (<6t)


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Small Excavators (6-13t)


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Medium Excavators (13-30t)


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

55,000

65,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Large Excavators (>30t)


Electrification Penetration Rate Electrification Penetration Rate

Electrification Penetration RateElectrification Penetration Rate


Loaders (1)Global Loader Market Overview


• Wheeled loader is the largest vehicle segment of the global loader market,

as this vehicle type is more widely used across all regions. China is the

largest regional market for wheeled loader in 2018, accounting for over 50%

of the market.

• North America accounted for over 80% of the global skid-steer loader

market. For backhoe loaders, North America and India are the two largest

regional market, with a market share over 80% when combined.

• Crawler loader is the most niche vehicle segment and has very limited use

in North America and Europe only.

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

CA

GR

Un

it S

hip

me

nt

Wheeled Loaders Backhoe Loaders Crawler Loaders

Skid-Steer Loaders Growth Rate

Global Loader Market (2017-2028)


Wheeled

Loaders

Backhoe

Loaders

Skid-Steer

Loaders

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

China North America Europe Japan South America

India Middle East & Africa Oceania South Korea Rest of Asia

Global Loader Market - Regional Market Share 2018



• Interact Analysis forecasts that electrified loader will only achieve a penetration

rate of 8% in 2028 of the global loader market. Wheeled loaders will be the

earliest to adopt electrification and also the most widely adopted.

• Reducing noise and emissions are two major drivers for the development of

electric wheeled loaders, especially those compact ones that are used in zero-

emission areas or indoors in the U.S. and Europe.

• For compact wheeled loaders, the electrified powertrain technology including

hybrid and full electric is likely to be based on that used in some of the material

handling equipment, such as lift trucks. Similarity between these two vehicle types

includes:

• Might be used in closed or semi-closed environment

• Be used in high-demand application

• Need for system to have less maintenance work

• For other types of loaders with bigger power requirements, although being

used less in city areas with less need for lower emissions and noise, the

push to electrification will be also be driven from the request to improve

efficiency. “Go electric” will lead to a more compact design and a reduction

on the number of hydraulic components used in the system to enable less

power loss, as a result less maintenance work will be required. Lifetime Cost

and Productivity can thus be a key drive for electrification for these

machines.

45

Loaders (2)Electrification Trend

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Global Electrified Loader Market Penetration


Loaders WeightingICE (Diesel,

Bio-fuel)

Mild


Initial Cost 14 1 0 0 -1 -2 0








Safety 5 1 1 1 1 1 1



Total 100 100 90 90 107 35 101


Loaders (3)Electrification Penetration Rate by Vehicle Type


Electrification Penetration RateElectrification Penetration Rate

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Backhoe Loaders


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Skid-steer Loaders


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Crawler Loaders


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

80,000

110,000

140,000

170,000

200,000

230,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Wheeled Loaders



Aerial Work Platforms (1)Global Aerial Work Platform Market Overview


• Due to increasing construction spending and solid growth in global adoption

of aerial work platform especially in emerging region like China, the global

AWP market experienced very strong growth in 2018, with unit shipments

growing 22.6% over 2017.

• North America accounted for 55% of the global AWP market in 2018 in unit

terms. Followed by Europe with a share of 24%.

• China saw the strongest growth among all regions analyzed in the report,

AWP units shipped grew by 65.5% in 2018.

Boom Lifts

Scissor Lifts

Tele-

handlers

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

China North America Europe Japan South AmericaIndia Middle East & Africa Oceania South Korea Rest of Asia

Global Aerial Work Platform Market - Regional Market Share 2018


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

CA

GR

Un

it S

hip

me

nt

Boom Lifts Scissor Lifts Tele-handlers Growth Rate

Global Aerial Work Platform Market (2017-2028)



• Aerial work platform has had mature electrification solution for many years

already. Electric and hybrid equipment will gain shares in all three categories

continuously.

• Scissor type AWP has the highest electrification penetration rate, 85% in 2018 of

the global Scissor Lift market, and the rate is forecast to increase to 96% towards

the end of the forecast period. The telehandlers category moves the most slowly

towards electrification.

• Although equipment that comply to the latest emission standard naturally being

more expensive, because of the high rental rate, strong replacement demand over

the next few years and proven TCO benefits from the past, part of the “premium

initial cost” can be accepted by rental company because they can take back these

cost in a relatively short period.

• Increase in non-construction application has also driven the growth of electrified

AWPs.

• Hybrid technology is more widely accepted in the AWP market. In contrast to other

construction equipment, AWPs are the most “productive” when stationary, i.e.

allowing construction specialists to complete tasks, resulting in relatively short

periods of activity followed by longer periods of being idle and relatively rare usage

of full installed power during the most challenging terrain conditions. This is the

ideal duty cycle for hybrids, allowing time to recover and recharge the batteries.

48

Aerial Work Platforms (2)Electrification Trend

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Global Electrified Aerial Work Platform Market Penetration


AWP WeightingICE (Diesel,

Bio-fuel)

Mild


Initial Cost 12 1 2 2 2 -1 0








Safety 5 1 1 1 1 1 1



Total 100 100 149 149 155 70 99


Aerial Work Platforms (3)Electrification Penetration Rate by Vehicle Type

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Boom Lifts



Electrification Penetration Rate

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Scissor Lifts


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Telehandlers



0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

CA

GR

Un

it S

hip

me

nts

Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Class 4&5 Growth Rate

Global Lift Truck Market (2017-2028)



50

Lift TrucksGlobal Lift Truck Market Overview

• Driven by e-commerce, warehouses automation and mobile automation, the

global lift truck market have been seeing strong growth over the last few

years. Unit shipments for the global market grew by 14% in 2018, but a slow

down in growth rate since 2019 and will come back to a more normal

growth rates between 4%-5%, especially considering the current global

economic context and uncertainties.

• Class 1, Class 2 and Class 3 lift trucks that are used mainly in warehouse

are forecast to experience faster growth during the forecast period (9.3%,

5.6%, 7.9% respectively), whilst Class 4&5 market will only see a 2% CAGR.

• China accounted for 36% of the global lift truck market in 2018 in unit

terms. Followed by Europe with a share of 31%, and North America 18%.

China

36%

Europe

31%

North America

18%Japan 5%

Rest of Asia 3%

Latin America 3%

Oceania 2%

Middle East & Africa

1%South Korea 1%India 0%

Others 7%

Global Lift Truck Market - Regional Market Share 2018



• Lift trucks are widely used in logistics where the working environments are

often semi-closed or fully-closed spaces. And, because of its high efficiency,

low noise and zero emission characteristics, electrified lift trucks have been

getting increasing popularity, and have the highest electrification rate

among all vehicle types analyzed in this research. The penetration rate was

around 60% in 2017 and is forecast to increase to nearly 75% in 2028.

• From a cost perspective, the vast majority of electric lift trucks now use

lead-acid batteries, although some lift trucks started using lithium-ion

batteries or hydrogen technology. Although lead acid is considered as a cost-

effective battery chemistry that has been used in lift trucks for a long time,

and has almost no worries relating to reliability of the technology and

security of the supply, Lithium-ion do have advantage over lead acid in a

couple of ways including shorter charge time, better power range, higher

energy density etc. With the fast development of lithium-ion battery

technology and fast expansion in production, it is expected that lithium-ion

will take the share of lead acid battery in lift truck area in the coming years.

There will also be new entrants come into this market, such as BYD,

originally a Chinese battery manufacturer, who started to build full electric

lift trucks and already manufactured over 10,000 lift trucks with lithium-ion

batteries in 2018.

• The use of electrified lift trucks will be amplified by the emergence of

autonomous mobile robots from the early 2020s. Detailed annual analysis

and forecasts for the mobile robot industry can be found in our Mobile

Robot Market Report.

51

Electrified Lift Truck Market (1)Electrification Trend

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Global Electrified Lift Truck Market Penetration



Bio-fuel)

Mild


Initial Cost 14 1 0 0 2 -1 0








Safety 5 1 1 1 1 1 1



Total 100 100 77 77 196 148 88

https://www.interactanalysis.com/mobile-robots-2018/


• Fuel cell technology has also been developed and promoted within this

category. Industrial trucks with fuel cells have seven key advantages:

productivity, low cost, high-performance availability, safe handling, clean

operation, sustainability and low space requirements.

• The reason for the high productivity is that the vehicle can be hydrogenated

in just one to three minutes - compared to the electric competitor's battery

replacement time of 10 to 20 minutes.

• But for now, the limited adoption of fuel cell technology and hydrogen

infrastructure keeps the production cost and transportation cost for

hydrogen extremely high and difficult to be adopted in a large scale. Before

the overall cost of hydrogen system can come down, full electric will be the

main powertrain technology used in lift trucks.

• In Europe, more than 85% of the shipped lift trucks are electrified.

Electrified lift truck occupy more than 60% of the shipped units in North

America and Japan in 2017. Although the electrification penetration rate for

lift trucks in China is lower than the other 3 regions, this market will be

seeing the strongest growth towards electrification.

52

Electrified Lift Truck Market (2)Electrification Trend

585255 645058 707674 710884 725688

8762041016150

12605531492444

19967345435

38805326

12848

62723

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2017 2018 2020 2023 2028

ICE (Diesel, Bio-fuel) Full Electric Hydrogen

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2017 2028 2017 2028 2017 2028 2017 2028

ICE (Diesel, Bio-fuel) Electrified

Regional Lift Truck Market Electrification Trend 2017 vs. 2028


North America Europe China Japan

65% - 73%

85% - 87%

41% - 72%

62% - 68%


0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

1,300

1,320

1,340

1,360

1,380

1,400

1,420

1,440

1,460

1,480

1,500

CA

GR

Un

it S

hip

me

nt

Underground LHD Growth Rate

Global Underground LHD Market (2017-2028)



53

Underground LHDGlobal Underground LHD Market Overview

• The global mining industry has seen positive growth in the past two years,

which resulted in steady demand growth for mining equipment. And the

share of underground mining is growing faster in terms of material moved

and equipment Capex, than that of surface mining.

• All regions have seen steady growth, whilst demand increase more strongly

in Oceania, South America, Middle East and Africa.

• Growth in equipment demand and unit shipments has been slowing down

since 2nd half 2018, growth forecast for 2019 will be tempered considering

global economic growth uncertainties and its potential impact on mining

demand and CaPEX.

China 18%

Europe

21%

North America

13%Japan 3%

Rest of Asia 9%

Latin America 2%

Oceania 17%


13%

India 4%

Global Underground LHD Market - Regional Market Share 2018



• Zero emissions underground, cleaner air, less noise and less heat are obvious

benefits of switching to electrified vehicles. All this can improve worker morale as

well as productivity.

• The International Council on Mining and Metals plans to minimize the impact of

underground diesel exhaust by 2025, this will push for electrified mining.

• Reducing the use of diesel fuel has obvious cost benefits. About 40% of an

underground mine’s energy outlay is spent on powering gigantic ventilation

systems to remove pollutants from tunnels.

• The two Nordic companies (Sandvik AB and Epiroc AB) who dominate the global

underground mining equipment market are both pushing aggressively to electrify

their underground machines, with Epiroc AB aiming to electrify all its underground

machines within five years. This will accelerate the progress of electrification for

underground LHD.

• The development of underground equipment is becoming more and more digital

and unmanned, due to the rising labor cost, security issue. With the vigorous

development of mining industry, more and more underground mines are gradually

going deeper which is not suitable for personnel. Electrified vehicle will further

improve the level of vehicle digitization and intelligence.

• The way of overhead power supply or towing cable solves the problem of exhaust

gas, but also limits the flexibility of equipment. At the same time, the maintenance

cost of power supply system will increase. Whilst the upfront cost of battery

electric vehicle would be about twice the price of a conventional one, lower fuel

and energy costs will compensate the initial pain.

54

Electrified Underground LHD MarketElectrification Trend

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Global Electrified Underground LHD Market Penetration


Underground LHD WeightingICE (Diesel,

Bio-fuel)

Mild


Initial Cost 7 1 0 0 -1 -2 0








Safety 15 1 1 1 1 -1 1



Total 100 100 100 100 139 52 113


-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

3,100

3,200

3,300

3,400

3,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

3,900

4,000

Off-highway Truck Growth Rate

Global Off-highway Truck Market (2017-2028)


Un

it S

hip

men

ts


55

Off-highway TrucksGlobal Off-highway Truck Market Overview

• Demand for mining equipment in 2018 was strong, represented by 6%

growth in Off-highway truck unit shipments. Demand increase is mainly

driven by Oceania, South America, Middle East and Africa.

• Growth in equipment demand and unit shipments has been slowing down

since 2nd half 2018, growth forecast for 2019 will be tempered considering

global economic growth uncertainties and its potential impact on mining

demand and CaPEX.

China 8%

Europe

14%

North America

24%

Rest of Asia 15%

Latin America 3%

Oceania 17%


13%

India 6%

Global Off-highway Truck Market - Regional Market Share 2018



• In contrast to how fast electrification has been progressed with underground

mining, the electrification penetration rate for surface mining is much lower.

Even towards the end of the forecast period, the penetration rate will be less

than 7%.

• The International Council on Mining and Metals also aims to achieve

greenhouse gas-free vehicles for surface mining by 2040. Yet the transition

to electric vehicles still has some way to go.

• Considering the sites where off-highway trucks are typically used, such as

mines far away from the urban area, there is less emission control, and

quite often lack of developed infrastructure to supply electric power. In

addition, both the power density and energy density required from the

vehicle is very high.

• As technology advances, there will be successes in the on-highway sector

regarding the ability to “power” vehicles such as Class 8 trucks, perhaps

with hydrogen fuel cells. There will also be improvements in the reliability

and safety for medium and larger construction vehicles’ electrification. It is

expected to see these technology transfer into the off-highway truck sector.

56

Electrified Off-highway Truck MarketElectrification Trend

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Global Electrified Off-highway Truck Market Penetration


Off-highway Trucks WeightingICE (Diesel,

Bio-fuel)

Mild


Initial Cost 15 1 0 0 -1 -2 0








Safety 5 1 1 1 1 1 1



Total 100 100 90 90 116 90 101


Regional Analysis


69,547 75,283 76,080 90,262

88,822 90,636 91,275

103,340

97,121

112,339 129,125

127,696

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2017 2018 2023 2028

Excavator Skid-steer Loader Backhoe Loader Crawler Loader

Wheel Loader Bulldozer Off-highway Truck Underground LHD

Boom Lift Scissor Lift Telehandler Lift Truck

Off-highway Vehicle Demand - North Americas



58

North America Off-highway Vehicle MarketSales Forecast by Vehicle Type

• North America has the most diversified off-highway vehicle profile, covering

all kinds of light/compact product to heavy product. Lift truck, skid-steer

loader and excavator are the 3 largest segments.

• North American market is the world’s largest market for skid steer loader.

Last year the region accounted for more than 84% of global sales of this

type of machine. It’s also the world’s largest market for backhoe loader,

together with India, these two regions accounted for nearly 82% of global

sales.

• Although being a developed region in off-highway vehicle market, large-scale

earthmoving equipment still sells well and are forecast to remain stable

growth as economy in this region continue to grow at a good pace, keeping

driving new infrastructure projects and high level of construction investment.

• Lift truck is forecast to see the highest CAGR during the forecast period,

growing around 5% annually between 2017 and 2028. Boom lift type of

AWP is also expected to see a similar level of annual growth.


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

North America, 2018, Powertrain

Penetration Rate

ICE (Diesel, Bio-fuel) Mild Hybrid

Full Hybrid Full Electric

Hydrogen Others

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Penetration Rate



Hydrogen Others

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Penetration Rate



Hydrogen Others


59

North America Powertrain Penetration Rate by Vehicle Application


• When compared to Europe and China, Interact Analysis predicts the rate at

which battery electric off-highway penetrate the North America market will

be relatively slow. This is partly because of the low diesel prices in this

market which makes battery electric powertrain relatively less attractive in

terms of total cost of ownership compared to diesel counterparts.

• Hybrid penetration rate is higher than that of Europe and China, given the

low diesel prices and the relatively slow shift towards battery electric

technologies, as they help bridge the gap between diesel and battery

electric equipment. However, its further growth will be limited after 2023

when battery electric technology start to get more adoption.


60

North America Off-highway Vehicle MarketElectrification Penetration Rate by Powertrains

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


The North American Off-highway Vehicle Market by Powertrain



103,473 112,190122,851 130,082

20,67223,725

25,65425,910

71,131

77,541

90,709

103,218

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2017 2018 2023 2028

Excavator Skid-steer Loader Backhoe Loader Crawler Loader

Wheel Loader Bulldozer Off-highway Truck Underground LHD

Boom Lift Scissor Lift Telehandler Lift Truck

Off-highway Vehicle Demand - Europe



61

Europe Off-highway Vehicle MarketSales Forecast by Vehicle Type

• 2018 was the strongest year for the European construction equipment

sector since the economic crisis of 2008/2009. Overall sales of off-highway

vehicles on the European market grew by 10.7%, and the absolute market

level is now only 10% below the 2007 peak.

• A slow down in sales is expected for 2019 due to ongoing political and

economic uncertainties.

• Material handling equipment is forecast to see a higher CAGR during the

forecast period. Lift truck is forecast to see the highest CAGR among all

vehicle types analyzed in the report, 4.7%. The structural growth from

increased warehouses and e-commerce is a strong drive behind the growth.


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Europe, 2018, Powertrain

Penetration Rate



Hydrogen Others

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Penetration Rate



Hydrogen Others

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Penetration Rate



Hydrogen Others


62

Europe Powertrain Penetration Rate by Vehicle Application


2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


The Europe Off-highway Vehicle Market by Powertrain



63

Europe Off-highway Vehicle MarketElectrification Penetration Rate by Powertrains

• Europe has the highest electrification penetration rate among all regions,

and their leading position is expected to remain during the whole forecast

period. Interact Analysis forecasts that over 70% of the off-highway vehicles

analyzed in this report will go electrified in Europe in 2028.

• Globally, the overwhelming majority of low emission zones are in Europe,

where much stricter emission standard is proposed. For many of the off-

highway vehicles that are used in city urban areas will be directly impacted.

Equipment like lift trucks that count for a large share of unit shipments and

Scissor type AWP already have over 80% electrification penetrate rate. Many

of the compact vehicles work in these urban areas will also go electrified

very soon following the zero-emission standard.

• Europe is also leading in electrification technology development. For many

of the off-highway vehicle types analyzed in the report, European OEMs have

large share in the market, and their product offering/strategies on

electrification thus have a direct impact on the penetration rate, such as

Sandvik & Epiroc on underground mining equipment, KION & Jungheinrich

on lift truck.


140,062202,646 228,118 239,636

96,151

107,65095,035 94,908

293,075

316,491313,847

311,986

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2017 2018 2023 2028

Excavator Skid-steer Loader Backhoe Loader Wheel Loader

Bulldozer Off-highway Truck Underground LHD Boom Lift

Scissor Lift Telehandler Lift Truck

Off-highway Vehicle Demand - China



64

China Off-highway Vehicle MarketSales Forecast by Vehicle Type

• Lift trucks, excavators and wheeled loaders are the 3 largest segments in

unit shipment terms, all together accounting for 97% of the China off-

highway vehicle market in 2017, but their combined share is forecasts to

drop to 89% in 2028.

• China saw dramatic growth in 2018, with some of the construction vehicle

segments growing over 40% in 2018 over 2017, i.e. bulldozers, excavators.

• Following strong demand in 2018 and 2018, the market growth rate for

China is forecast to slow down significantly since 2019. Material handling

equipment is forecast to have higher CAGR than construction equipment

overall, and mining equipment will have the lowest CAGR. In addition,

company/light equipment will see stronger market growth than heavy

equipment.

• AWP is the segment that is forecast to see highest CAGR 25% during

forecast period. Comparing to other construction vehicle segments which

already turn into a mature development phase, AWP is relatively an

emerging segment in China and just started to get wider adoption.


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

China, 2018, Powertrain Penetration

Rate



Hydrogen Others

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Rate



Hydrogen Others

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Rate



Hydrogen Others


65

China Powertrain Penetration Rate by Vehicle Application



66

China Off-highway Vehicle MarketElectrification Penetration Rate by Powertrains

• At present, China is far behind Europe and North America in progression

towards off-highway vehicle electrification. Less than 30% of the off-highway

vehicle analyzed in the report were electrified in 2017. Having said that, this

region is forecast to move the fastest in increasing the electrification

penetration rate, and it is forecast that the rate will be over 55% in 2028.

• Government policy on emission will serve as a strong driver for the

electrification of off-highway vehicles. OENs will be forced to invest in

cleaner vehicles and battery electric commercial vehicles by the upcoming

more stringent emission restrictions China Stage IV, which is aligned with

Tier 4 and Stage IIIB.

• China’s dominant position in battery manufacture and battery technology

development on passenger vehicle as well as commercial vehicles like

buses & trucks, will accelerate battery electric technology transition onto off-

highway vehicles. As a result, hybrid solution is very limited in China, many

local suppliers move straight from diesel engine to R&D in battery electric

powertrain solution.

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


The Chinese Off-highway Vehicle Market by Powertrain



Competitive Landscape Analysis



68

Excavator Market Overview

• Caterpillar and Komatsu continue their dominant position in the excavator

market, accounting for over 25% of the global market in terms of unit

shipments. And both have strong presence in all regions globally.

• Sany and XCMG, Chinese excavator suppliers, have increased their global

market share in both 2017 and 2018; however, their main focus is China so

their increase in global market share is primarily due to their strong position

within the local Chinese market.

• Whilst the competitive landscape for major regions have been fairly stable

now, there will be changes in share in some of the emerging regions. For

example, India and some of the South East Asian countries have been

dominated by Korean and Japanese suppliers, but there is an increase in

share seen with some Chinese local vendors trying to compete and gain

market share.

Caterpillar 14%

Komatsu

12%

Doosan

8%

Hitachi 9%

Hyndai Construction 6%JCB 3%John Deer 3%

Kobelco 2%

Sany 9%

Volvo 5%

XCMG 4%

Others

25%

Global Excavator Market Share 2018


North America Europe China Japan India Indonesia

1 Caterpillar

27.1%

Caterpillar

14.7%

Sany

23.1%

Komatsu

35%

Hyundai

28%

Komatsu

45%

2 Komatsu

21.2%

Volvo

12.6%

Caterpillar

13%

Hitachi

18%

Hitachi

20%

Hitachi

20%

3 John Deere

19%

Komatsu

10.5%

XCMG

11.5%

SCM

17%

Komatsu

15%

Sany

10%

4 Doosan

7.3%

Doosan

7%

Doosan

8%

Kobelco

12%

Sany

10%

Kobelco

5%

5 Volvo

4.9%

Liebherr

6%

Liugong

7%

Sumitomo

5%

Caterpillar

8%

Caterpillar

5%

Others 20.5% 49.2% 38.4% 13% 19% 15%


14.4%

23.1%

13.3%

13.0%

11.1%

11.5%

10.5%

8.0%

8.9%

7.0%

8.5%

6.6%

6.2%

5.0%

4.5%

4.1%

4.5%

3.6%

3.4%

3.3%

14.7%

14.8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Others Top 10 Top 9 Top 8 Top 7 Top 6 Top 5 Top 4 Top 3 Top 2 Top 1


China Excavator Market Top 10 Supplier Market Share 2010 vs. 2018

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2018

Korea

Japan

EU&US

China

Market Share of Domestic Brands in Excavators (2010 vs.2018)


Market Share Change for China Excavator Market - 2010 vs. 2018


69

• Over the past eight years, the market share of China domestic brands has increased from

31.1% in 2010 to 55.6% in 2018. Most of the overseas suppliers have seen a decrease

in their market share. The market share of Japanese and Korean brands has decreased

by 18.5% and 12.8%, respectively. Caterpillar is the only overseas supplier that saw

increase in market share. It can be seen that the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises

has gradually increased. The trend of substitution of foreign brands by local brands will be

further intensified in the future.

• Among domestic brands, SANY's market share has increased most obviously, from about

8.5% in 2010 to about 23.1% in 2018. This is likely to be partly due to its brand strategy.

We believe that in the future, Chinese enterprises will shift from focusing solely on price

and market share to focusing more on the promotion of product competitiveness through

technology accumulation and refinement, as well as the accompanying advantages of

brand effect and scale.

31.1% 55.6%

Others

VOLVO

HYUNDAI

HITACHI

KOMATSU

SDLG

LIUGONG

DOOSAN

XCMG

CATERPILLAR

SANY

Others

LIUGONG

YUCHAI

VOLVO

CATERPILLAR

SANY

KOBELCO

HITACHI

HYUNDAI

DOOSAN

KOMATSU

2018

2010


• US and European suppliers dominate the global Aerial Work Platform

market. The top 3 leading suppliers - JLG, Terex and Manitou - account for

over 60% of the global market share in terms of unit shipments.

• Competitive landscape by sub-segment of boom lift, scissor lift and tele-

handler look slightly different.

• Skyjack (HQ in Canada) and Dingli (HQ in China) both have a strong presence

only in scissor lift market and have a dominant share in their local region. If in

revenue terms, Dingli’s market share will drop slightly due to its lower average

cost per unit.

• For boom lift and scissor lift market, most of the leading suppliers only cover

the material handling product category, whilst for telehandler market, there are

more players who also cover construction equipment such as JCB and CNH.

• Most of these leading players have a more dominant position in their own

regional market; i.e. Terex and JLG in North America; Manitou, Haulotte and JCB

in Europe.


70

Material Handling Equipment Market OverviewAerial Work Platforms

Manitou 15%

JLG (Oshkosh)

27%

Skyjack (Linarmar)

9%

Genie (Terex） 22%

Dingli 8%

Haulotte 7%

Aichi 3%

Snorkel 2%

Others 7%

Global Aerial Work Platform Market Share 2018


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Boom Lift Scissor Lift Tele-handler

Lift Truck Regional Market Share 2018


JLGJLGJLG

TerexTerex

Terex

Manitou

Manitou

Manitou Skyjack

DingliJCB

Haulotte

CNHMerlo

OthersOthersOthers

Snorkel

JCB

Snorkel


• From a unit shipment perspective, the top 8 lift truck suppliers account for

over 70% of the global market.

• The Chinese lift truck market is dominated by local suppliers covering over

80% of the market, in particular the class 4 & Class 5 categories. The top

two leading suppliers, Heli (Anhui Forklift) and Hangcha, accounted for over

40% of the market share in unit shipments. Tshe remaining part of the

market is very fragmented, and international brands compete more within

the electrified forklift market.

• The North America and the European lift truck market are more

concentrated, with the top 3 players accounting for over 80% and over 70%

of the markets respectively.


71

Material Handling Equipment Market OverviewLift Truck

Toyota 17%

Kion

13%

Mitsubishi Logisnext

7%

Jungheinrich 7%Crown 6%

Hyster-Yale 6%

Heli (Anhui Forklift) 8%

Hangcha 7%

Others 29%

Global Lift Truck Market Share 2018


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

North America Europe China

Lift Truck Regional Market Share 2018


Toyota Toyota

Mitsubishi

Loginext KIONHangcha

Heli (Anhui

Forklift)

Crown

Jungheinrich

Hyster-Yale

Clark

Hyster-Yale Others

OthersOthers


• Volvo Group has developed electric vehicles for

bus, truck and off-highway applications.

• It has created, in 2018, an internal division

focused on developing emobility solutions for all

vehicle groups.

• In 2018 Volvo Penta, the engine division,

announced that it would develop hybrid and

electric solutions for the industrial and marine

divisions within Volvo.

• Volvo is amongst the most advanced with

regard migrating on-highway electrification to

the off-highway market.

• BYD has a 7+4 strategy to develop electric

machines for 7 on-road vehicles and 4 off-

highway vehicles.

• BYD has created products for all 7 applications.

It has also developed tractor trucks for freight.

For off-road, it has developed a yard tractor and

also has a forklift truck business. For mining

vehicles, it launched a dump truck in 2015

called the BYD V60, but very little information is

available about this product and may have been

a trial. It would be a surprise if, given the

increasing pressure on emissions, particularly in

China, this product didn’t reappear.

• At IAA 2018, FTP highlighted an eAxle concept

and a 48v mild hybrid (fly-wheel) for off-highway.

Also demoed a hydrogen fuel concept on Iveco

stand, believe will be tech of choice for heavy

duty/long haul (battery electric won’t be able to

meet range, hydrogen ICE makes no sense, too

much uncertainty about novel fuel i.e. bio-fuels).

It seems likely there will be a technology

transfer to its off-highway brands.

• Iveco has an electric version of the Daily light

commercial vehicle. It is powered by a Zebra

molten sodium battery.

• Iveco also delivers electric and hybrid buses

through its Heuliez brand.

Eaton Hydraulics

72

Companies Exposed to On- and Off-highway (1)Multiple OEMs and suppliers to the on- and off-highway markets are developing electric solutions


• Cummins has made a series of acquisitions

over the last 18 months – EDI, the automotive

battery division of Johnson Matthey, Brammo –

to strengthen its hybrid and electric portfolio.

• Cummins has showcased a range of vehicle

solutions at tradeshows globally, often with

attendance from senior leadership.

• As one of the leading providers of diesel

engines to both on- and off-highway

applications, Cummins is aiming to take a

leading role in the transition toward electrified

solutions in both areas.

• DEUTZ has introduced its ‘e-Deutz’ strategy in

2018. It will offer a hybrid solution for use in off-

highway applications.

• Platform introduced at Intermat 2018 using IP

from Torqeedo acquisition and BWM i battery

technology.

• DEUTZ has also exited its Chinese JV and focus

on new alliances in China, one of which is with

the tractor manufacturer YTO. There is a

potential opportunity for DEUTZ’s new hybrid

solutions to be used in China.

• Dana has acquired the drives business of OC

Oerlikon, TM4 (a Canadian hybrid and electric

powertrain company), and Brivini (fluid power)

in the last two years.

• Dana is, like Cummins, broadening its

electrification portfolio.

• It plans to develop several machine types,

include electrified aerial work platforms (AWPs)

Eaton Hydraulics

73

Companies Exposed to On- and Off-highway (2)Multiple OEMs and suppliers to the on- and off-highway markets are developing electric solutions


Electrification Competitive Analysis (1)

• Scoring for the companies is based on 8 metrics – strategic focus, ability to cross-migrate technology from other divisions, demo products, time-in-market for ‘in

production’, breadth of electrification portfolio, focus on infrastructure, partnerships and acquisitions.

• Scores are based on public announcements and research conducted during this report. Whilst Interact Analysis believes the scores to be reasonably objective,

it must be understood that the scores for each category do not indicate an ‘intensity’. For example, two companies may score equally on ‘strategic focus’ i.e.

both companies have announced a program or division focused on electrification. However, this does not indicate CAPEX, staffing, core focus that each

company has deployed and which may vary substantially.

• Despite this, Interact Analysis believes this analysis is helpful in providing a snapshot of where companies are at now, and provides a simple way of comparing

the approach that different vendors are taking.


74

1-23 ranked companies

Company Name Company Type Corporate HQ Country Overall Score Strategic Focus ScoreTechnology Cross Migration ScoreDemo Product Score Time-in-market Score Portfolio Breadth Score Infrastructure Score Partnership Score Acquisition Score

Cummins Engine/Powertrain US 6.5 1 1 1 0.5 1 0 0 2

Dana Engine/Powertrain/Hydraulics US 6.5 1 1 1 0.5 1 0 0 2

Danfoss Engine/Powertrain/Hydraulics Denmark 6 1 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 2

Hitachi Construction Machinery Machine Builder Japan 6 1 0.5 1 1 1 1 0.5 0

Deutz Engine/Powertrain Germany 5.5 1 0 1 0.5 1 0 1 1

Volvo Construction Equipment Machine Builder Sweden 5 1 1 1 0 0.5 1 0.5 0

BYD Machine Builder China 5 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0

Parker Hannifin Hydraulics US 5 1 0.5 1 1 0.5 0 0 1

Caterpillar Machine Builder US 4.5 0.5 0.5 1 1 0.5 0 1 0

Weichai Power Engine/Powertrain China 4.5 0 1 0 0.5 1 0 2 0

Bosch Engine/Powertrain Germany 4.5 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0

Sandvik Machine Builder Sweden 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1

Wacker Neuson Machine Builder Germany 4 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0

Axletech Engine/Powertrain US 4 1 0 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0

AVID Technology Engine/Powertrain UK 4 1 0 1 0.5 1 0 0.5 0

ZF Engine/Powertrain Germany 4 1 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 0

Volvo Penta Engine/Powertrain Sweden 3.5 1 1 1 0 0.5 0 0 0

Epiroc Machine Builder Sweden 3.5 1 0 1 1 0.5 0 0 0

Genie (Terex) Machine Builder US 3 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 0

John Deere Machine Builder US 3 0 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 0

JCB Machine Builder UK 3 0.5 0 1 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 0

Komatsu Machine Builder Japan 2.5 0 0 1 1 0.5 0 0 0

Liebherr Machine Builder Germany 2.5 0 0.5 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 0




75

24-46 ranked companies

Company Name Company Type Corporate HQ Country Overall Score Strategic Focus ScoreTechnology Cross Migration ScoreDemo Product Score Time-in-market Score Portfolio Breadth Score Infrastructure Score Partnership Score Acquisition Score

Perkins Engines Engine/Powertrain UK 2.5 0.5 0.5 1 0 0.5 0 0 0

Mecalac Machine Builder France 2.5 0.5 0 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 0

Bosch Rexroth Hydraulics Germany 2.5 0.5 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 0 0

Hyundai Construction Machine Builder South Korea 2.5 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 0.5 0

Fendt (AGCO) Machine Builder Germany (US) 2 0 0 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 0

Eaton Hydraulics Hydraulics US 2 0 0.5 0 0 0 1 0.5 0

Huddig Machine Builder Sweden 2 0.5 0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0

Doosan Infracore (inc Bobcat) Machine Builder South Korea 2 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 0 0 0

FPT Engine/Powertrain Italy (Netherlands) 2 0.5 0.5 1 0 0 0 0 0

New Holland Agriculture (CNH) Machine Builder Italy (Netherlands) 1.5 0 0.5 1 0 0 0 0 0

Case Construction (CNH) Machine Builder Italy (Netherlands) 1.5 0 0.5 1 0 0 0 0 0

Kohler Power Engine/Powertrain US 1.5 0 0 1 0 0.5 0 0 0

XCMG Machine Builder China 1.5 0 0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0

Kubota Engines Engine/Powertrain Japan 1.5 0.5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

Kubota Construction Machinery Machine Builder Japan 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

Sany Machine Builder China 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

BorgWarner Engine/Powertrain US 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0

Yanmar Engines Engine/Powertrain Japan 1 0 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 0

MTU Engine/Powertrain Germany 0.5 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0

New Holland Construction (CNH) Machine Builder US (Netherlands) 0.5 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0

MAN Engines Engine/Powertrain Germany 0.5 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0

Isuzu Engines Engine/Powertrain Japan 0.5 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0

YTO Machine Builder China 0.5 0 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0



• The first takeaway is how broadly the trend to electrification is impacting the off-highway market. A wide variety of companies – machine builders, engine

suppliers, hydraulics vendors and others – are developing strategies, products and capabilities to serve the new market. In essence, the shift to electric

machinery requires a full redesign of the vehicle systems – replacing an engine/transmission, integrated new components, replacing hydraulics – and this is

reconfiguring the competitive landscape.

• What is also clear is how dynamic the market landscape is – Cummins, Dana and Danfoss have made the top of the rankings based largely on activity over the

last two years with a string of acquisitions between them. Interact Analysis expects these rankings to change significantly over coming years as other

companies develop strategies or enhance their product portfolios. The challenge now is about catch-up!

• What is surprising is the dominance of US and European headquartered vendors, particularly given the overall dominance of Japanese and Chinese machine

builders (and particularly given the long heritage of Japanese vendors with hybrid technology). However, in reality, Europe is likely to move quickest to electrified

off-highway machinery so vendors based there or heavily exposed to that market will need to move fast. Although Japanese vendors have significant share in

Europe, they have struggled to sell hybrid technology (not cost effective) and haven’t developed, until recently, their own battery electric machinery.

• What is also clear is that the supply base (primarily engine manufacturers) is taking the lead with regarding electrification. To a degree, the business of selling

diesel engines is most threatened by a move to electric powertrains. However, it is also clear that several machine builders have done very little with regard to

preparing for a shift to electric or hybrid machinery, and this presents an opportunity to provide technology and design expertise.

• Many Chinese machine builders and engine manufacturers have done little to date with regard electrification. In one regard, this is surprising: much of the

passenger and commercial vehicle market has aggressively pursued electric vehicles. However, this is in a framework of intense government funding and

legislation. The same is not true in the off-highway market and, for the time being, is unlikely to be. However, given the growth of low emission cities and the

level of domestic expertise with electric vehicles it would be surprising if more Chinese vendors didn’t develop electric off-highway solutions.


76

Key Takeaways


Charging Infrastructure

One of the major challenges associated with on-highway electric vehicles – both passenger and commercial – is the provision of adequate charging facilities and

the capacity of both the local and national electrical grid infrastructure to cope with large numbers of vehicles charging at the same time. The off-highway market

is no different; however, it faces the additional challenge that vehicles are often used in locations that are remote and not connected to the grid. Furthermore, in

certain applications – for example, construction – sites may only be temporary.

Opportunities

In the commercial vehicle market, particularly the bus market, vendors of electric buses have found that they need to a sell a ‘solution’ that not only delivers the

buses, but also includes charging infrastructure, grid connection, grid stabilisation and route planning/consultation. This has changed the sales process – and

business model – for these vendors and indicates an opportunity for a vendor to do the same in the off-highway market. Currently, very few off-highway machine

builders or suppliers are focusing on an infrastructure solution, particularly one that caters to the specific needs of off-highway.

• For construction sites, particularly those that may be in place temporarily, the provision of on-site charging is challenging. If the site is remote, hydrogen fuel cell

generators may be required. If the site is in an urban area, the grid connection/stabilisation and charging equipment may need to be ‘mobile’, with the ability to

be ‘lifted out’ and used at another location.

• For larger operators looking to switch to electric machinery, they may require significant support, particularly with operational issues i.e. how to plan charging,

machine use, etc. There is a role for a company to help facilitate the move to electric machinery.

• In remote locations – such as mines – power may need to be provided from a number of sources, potentially all renewable. Provision of these renewables and

of the micro-grid is an opportunity.

Eaton Hydraulics

77

An opportunity for vendors to assert a competitive advantage


Methodology


Methodology

Interact Analysis uses a rigorous methodology to produce as accurate a report as possible. For this report, the following was undertaken:

• Face-to-face and telephone interviews with key industry personnel at leading off-highway vehicle companies, engine suppliers, key component (e.g. hydraulic

component) suppliers, distributors and end-users (over 50 interviews).

• Collection of real company data via surveys - which were maintained confidentially – to create a bottom-up model of total industry sizes and market share

analysis. Contributors to this report would be across various stakeholders, include but not limited to the following:

• Off-highway equipment OEM

• Component manufacturers (engine, power transmission, hydraulic component, etc.)

• Association members or respective government bodies

• End-users of off-highway equipment such as mining, real-estate, road construction etc.

• Distributors, financing companies

• Secondary data – use of relevant pubic information from a variety of respected industry sources which include but not limited to the following:

• Government statistics

• Industry associations

• Company annual report, filings, presentations

• ‘Bottom-up’ data model – accurate estimates for companies, regions, applications are made based on reported data. This enables the size of the market to be

estimated at a very granular level.


79


Methodology: Primary Research

This report was based on a high volume of primary research, including:

Over 50 in-depth research interviews

• With senior product managers, policy makers, company executives and business development managers

• Acquiring production and deliveries data directly from OEMs and suppliers

• Understanding the technology roadmaps for each OEM. Challenging assumptions

• Understanding company strategies toward e-mobility, autonomy, etc.

• All interviews conducted by Interact Analysis team

• Base year data calculated using the data collected from our primary interviews

Attendance at major trade shows and conferences

• Our team of analysts travelled across the world to all the major trade-shows and conferences (some shown below) to hold additional discussions with

vendors, OEMs and industry players

• We were able to see and investigate new product releases in person


80


In addition to the primary research conducted, supplementary secondary (desk) research was used over a period of 3 months:

Press release & public announcement analysis

• Interact Analysis offers an electric commercial vehicles insight service which tracks press releases, quantifies orders and provides a quarterly report with

detailed insight and critical analysis on the current and expected future state of the market. Using this tool, we were able to validate our base year data.

Review and analysis of government statistics

• We validated our bottom-up approach using various government statistics to ensure the volumes matched. Any discrepancies were cross-checked with

vendors during interviews.


Methodology: Secondary Research


Methodology: Forecasting Model

Model development

• During our interviews, we determined the specific drivers and barriers for each segment and

region/country. Using this information, we modelled the expected penetration rate for each off-

highway vehicle type based on the drivers and barriers for each segment.

• To create the model, we

• quantified the emission regulation impact for each by region/country based on the regulation

detail and phase-in time;

• used a combination of weightings for each vehicle segment based on its specific application

and impact from emission standard;

• finally, we used a combination of weightings for different powertrain technologies used by each

vehicle type, and in such way produces a final penetration rate for the forecast period. The

penetration rate is the percentage of electrified off-highway vehicles out of the total number of

vehicles within a particular segment delivered annually.

• The penetration rate is then applied to the underlying sales forecast to determine the absolute

number of electric vehicles delivered annually for a particular segment.

Model validation

• During our in-depth research interviews, we determined the volumes which each OEM is expecting

to produce in 2019 and 2020.

• We also asked all vendors their expectations for overall penetration rates of electrified off-highway

vehicles in each major region to help sanity check and fine tune our model.

• Lastly, we presented the research participants our top level forecasts for all major regions to

receive feedback.


82

Emission

StandardApplication

Mini Excavator (<6t) 5 4 9

Small Excavator (6-13t) 4 4 8

Medium Excavator (13-30t) 3 2 5

Large Excavator (>30t) 2 2 4

Wheeled Loaders 3 3 6

Backhoe Loaders 3 2 5

Crawler Loaders 3 2 5

Skid-Steer Loaders 3 2 5

Bulldozers 2 2 4

Off-highway Trucks 1 1 2

Underground LHD 1 5 6

Boom Lifts 4 5 9

Scissor Lifts 5 5 10

Tele-handlers 3 4 7

Lift Trucks 5 5 10


Bio-fuel)

Mild


Initial Cost 14 1 0 0 2 -1 0








Safety 5 1 1 1 1 1 1



Total 100 100 77 77 196 148 88


Definitions


Definitions: Off-highway Vehicles (1)

Bulldozers:

• Driver-operated self-propelled heavy machines used for shifting large

amounts of earth, soil, sand, rubble and other debris for leveling the ground.

They comprise a tractor and a metal blade in the front.

Excavators:

• A construction equipment consisting of a boom, dipper (or stick), bucket and

cab on a rotating platform. In the report, it is sub-categorized by size into the

following 4 segments.

• Mini excavators (0-6 tons)

• Small excavators (6-13 tons)

• Medium excavators (13-30 tons)

• Large excavators(>30 tons)

Loaders:

• A heavy equipment machine used in construction to move aside or load

materials such as asphalt, demolition debris, dirt, snow, feed, gravel, logs,

raw minerals, recycled material, rock, sand, woodchips, etc. into or onto

another type of machinery (such as a dump truck, conveyor belt, feed-hopper,

or railroad car). We include the following 4 categories in report.

• Wheeled loaders

• Skid-steer loaders

• Backhoe loaders

• Crawler loaders

Aerial Work Platforms:

• Also known as mobile elevating work platform (MEWP). It is a powered access

equipment used to provide temporary access for people or equipment to

inaccessible areas, usually at height. In this report, we includes boom lifts

(both articulated and straight telescopic booms), scissor lifts and telehandlers.

We exclude low-level equipment (<3m high), telescopic material handlers,

forklifts, cranes, mast climbing work platforms, hoists, vertical masts and

vehicle-mounted AWP.

• Boom Lifts

• Scissor Lifts

• Tele-handlers

Lifting trucks:

• A powered industrial vehicle used to lift and transport materials for short

distances. Also known as forklift truck or forklift.

• Class 1 – electric motor rider trucks

• Class 2 – electric narrow aisle trucks

• Class 3 – electric hand trucks, hand trucks, rider trucks

• Class 4&5 – internal combustion trucks with solid/cushion tires or

pneumatic tires


84


Definitions: Off-highway Vehicles (2)

Underground LHD (load, haul, dump machine):

• Underground LHD are similar developed for the toughest of hard rock

mining applications.

Off-highway Trucks:

• Off-highway, rigid dump trucks that are developed specifically for

mining, quarry and construction applications, the Off-Highway Trucks

keep material moving at high volume to lower cost-per ton.


85


Definitions: Powertrains

Electrified

• An off-highway vehicle which uses one or more electric motors for part or all of the vehicle’s propulsion. This definition incorporates battery electric, fuel cell electric and

hybrid drivetrains。

Fuel cell electric

• An off-highway vehicle which uses a fuel cell to derive energy from hydrogen and oxygen which in turn powers an electric motor either directly or indirectly using a battery

storage system.

Battery electric

• An off-highway vehicle which uses one or more electric motors for propulsion and derives its energy from a battery which is recharged using an external source of

electrical power.

Hybrid

• An off-highway vehicle which uses one or more electric motors for propulsion along with an alternative power source either in series or in parallel.

• Mild hybrid

• A hybrid system which saves fuel by shutting off the diesel engine to capture mechanical energy when the vehicle is stopped, braking or cruising.

• Full hybrid

• Series hybrid: A hybrid which uses an alternative source of energy to power a generator which in turn charges the batteries. The batteries power the electric motors

which are the single source of propulsion.

• Parallel hybrid: A hybrid which has an electric motor and an additional power source which can both drive the vehicle independently or combine torque.

Others

• An off-highway vehicle which uses other power sources working alongside an engine, could be tethered or cable electric systems, to reduce emissions and improve

efficiency.


86


Contact

Shanghai

Unit 20E, Block 5, Lane 251,

Cao Xi Road, Shanghai 200235,

China

Phone: +86 189 1782 8216

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.interactanalysis.com

Austin

7301 Ranch Road 620 N

Suite 155 #270

Austin TX 78726-4539

United States

Phone: +1 512 598 0087



Northampton

Waterside House, Station Rd.,

Irthlingborough, Northamptonshire

NN9 5QF

United Kingdom

Phone: +44 (0) 1933 654 245



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