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The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions in the Third Quarter 2017

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Page 1: The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions · 2016 2017 H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P Wholesale Trade 288.5 346.7 334.0 364.5 334.7 % YoY 12.4 18.9 16.8 22.6 21.9 Retail Trade 189.4 200.7 200.2 201.3

The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions in the Third Quarter 2017

Page 2: The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions · 2016 2017 H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P Wholesale Trade 288.5 346.7 334.0 364.5 334.7 % YoY 12.4 18.9 16.8 22.6 21.9 Retail Trade 189.4 200.7 200.2 201.3

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Agricultural price % YoY

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Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

Agricultural production % YoY

Index % YoY

Index % YoY

Source : Office of Agricultural Economics, calculated by Bank of Thailand, Northern Region Office

Note : 1. farm income includes cost of production.2. price excludes compensation and subsidies by government.

-60-40-20020406080100120140

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Farm income % YoY

% YoY 2016R2017

H1 Q1 Q2 Q3

Farm Income -14.3 48.5 28.6 68.4 24.0

Production -12.2 54.4 31.0 77.8 31.9

Price -2.0 -3.7 -1.9 -5.5 -6.0

Farm IncomeRegional Economy Division, Northern Region Office

Index % YoY

2

Page 3: The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions · 2016 2017 H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P Wholesale Trade 288.5 346.7 334.0 364.5 334.7 % YoY 12.4 18.9 16.8 22.6 21.9 Retail Trade 189.4 200.7 200.2 201.3

Index : 2006 = 100 % YoY

Manufacturing Production IndexRegional Economy Division, Northern Region Office

Source : Customs Department calculated by Bank of Thailand, Northern Region Office 3

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MPI % YoY

20162017

H1 Q1 Q2 Q3

MPI level 87.7 96.3 117.4 75.2 83.2

% YoY -9.2 5.5 2.0 11.3 24.4

MPI level, SA - - 95.3 91.2 102.3

% MoM, % QoQ, SA - - 7.0 -4.3 12.2

Page 4: The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions · 2016 2017 H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P Wholesale Trade 288.5 346.7 334.0 364.5 334.7 % YoY 12.4 18.9 16.8 22.6 21.9 Retail Trade 189.4 200.7 200.2 201.3

Hotel average room rate

2016 2017

H1 Q1 Q2 Q3

Baht/room 947.8 1,074.1 1,191.0 957.3 1,031.9

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500

1,000

1,500

Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

Baht/room

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% YoYMillion Baht

Vat - Hotel&Restaurant %YOY(RHS)

Vat: Hotel & Restaurant

2016 2017

H1 Q1 Q2 Q3

Million Baht 673.2 383.5 228.4 155.3 159.6

% YoY 7.9 6.0 9.0 2.0 8.0

Sources : The Revenue Department, Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited., Department of Airports and Department of Tourism

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% YoY ‘000 persons

Air passenger %YOY (RHS)

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%

Air passenger

2016 2017

H1 Q1 Q2 Q3

‘000 person 12,372.9 6,618.9 3,594.3 3,024.6 3,235.4

% YoY 13.5 9.4 10.8 7.6 9.3

Hotel Occupancy

2016 2017

H1 Q1 Q2 Q3

% 57.0 61.1 68.2 54.1 51.1

Regional Economy Division, Northern Region Office

Tourism

4

Page 5: The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions · 2016 2017 H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P Wholesale Trade 288.5 346.7 334.0 364.5 334.7 % YoY 12.4 18.9 16.8 22.6 21.9 Retail Trade 189.4 200.7 200.2 201.3

Index % YoY Index % YoY

20162017

H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P

Wholesale Trade 288.5 346.7 334.0 364.5 334.7

% YoY 12.4 18.9 16.8 22.6 21.9

Retail Trade 189.4 200.7 200.2 201.3 189.0

% YoY 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.3P = Preliminary data, R = Revised data

Source : Bank of Thailand, Northern Region Office

Trade IndexRegional Economy Division, Northern Region Office

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Wholesale Trade % YoY

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Retail Trade % YoY

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Page 6: The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions · 2016 2017 H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P Wholesale Trade 288.5 346.7 334.0 364.5 334.7 % YoY 12.4 18.9 16.8 22.6 21.9 Retail Trade 189.4 200.7 200.2 201.3

P = Preliminary data, R = Revised data

20162017

H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P

PCI 152.2 153.5 152.4 154.2 155.0

% YoY 2.4 0.1 -0.5 0.5 2.6

% MoM, % QoQ, SA 1.6 1.0 1.1 0.5

Index % YoY

Private Consumption Index Regional Economy Division, Northern Region Office

Source : Bank of Thailand, Northern Region Office

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PCI % YoY (RHS)

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Page 7: The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions · 2016 2017 H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P Wholesale Trade 288.5 346.7 334.0 364.5 334.7 % YoY 12.4 18.9 16.8 22.6 21.9 Retail Trade 189.4 200.7 200.2 201.3

Index, SA % YoY

7

20162017

H1R Q1R Q2R Q3R

PII 113.6 115.4 116.3 113.8 108.5

% YoY -4.7 2.2 2.0 1.8 -4.9

% MoM, % QoQ - - 1.1 -2.1 -4.7

Private Investment IndexRegional Economy Division, Northern Region Office

Source: Bank of Thailand, Northern Region Office

P = Preliminary data, R = Revised data

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PII % YoY (RHS)

Page 8: The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions · 2016 2017 H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P Wholesale Trade 288.5 346.7 334.0 364.5 334.7 % YoY 12.4 18.9 16.8 22.6 21.9 Retail Trade 189.4 200.7 200.2 201.3

Million Baht

Source : Ministry of Finance

Expenditure 20162017

H1 Q1 Q2 Q3

Current* 82,126.4 31,845.3 16,638.6 15,206.6 21,093.3

% YoY 25.5 -24.7 -26.7 -22.4 19.0

Capital 69,420.1 31,390.2 18,901.8 12,488.4 13,753.3

% YoY 10.2 -12.1 -0.3 -25.5 -6.9

Total* 151,546.4 63,235.5 35,540.4 27,695.1 34,846.6

% YoY 18.0 -19.0 -14.7 -23.8 7.2

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Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

Capital Current

Regional Economy Division, Northern Region Office

Public Expenditure

* Excluded Salary

Page 9: The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions · 2016 2017 H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P Wholesale Trade 288.5 346.7 334.0 364.5 334.7 % YoY 12.4 18.9 16.8 22.6 21.9 Retail Trade 189.4 200.7 200.2 201.3

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Exports % YoY

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Imports % YoY

Million US$ Million US$% YoY % YoY

Source : Customs Department

Foreign TradeRegional Economy Division, Northern Region Office

Million US$ 20162017

H1 Q1 Q2 Q3

EXPORTS 5,273.6 2,648.1 1,344.9 1,303.1 1,308.8

% YoY -1.0 0.0 1.1 -1.1 5.1

IMPORTS 2,071.2 1,101.5 481.4 620.1 704.7

% YoY 21.5 19.4 8.0 30.1 18.4

9

Page 10: The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions · 2016 2017 H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P Wholesale Trade 288.5 346.7 334.0 364.5 334.7 % YoY 12.4 18.9 16.8 22.6 21.9 Retail Trade 189.4 200.7 200.2 201.3

% YoY

% YoY % YoY Raw Food and EnergyCore Inflation

%YoY 20162017

H1 Q1 Q2 Q3

Headline 0.06 0.47 1.24 -0.30 0.29

Food 1.41 -1.57 0.58 -1.83 -0.85

Non-food -0.78 5.56 1.65 0.67 1.02

Core 0.57 0.34 0.42 0.27 0.45

Headline Inflation

Source : Ministry of Commerce

InflationRegional Economy Division, Northern Region Office

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Headline Food Non-food

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2.5

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Raw food Energy

Page 11: The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions · 2016 2017 H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P Wholesale Trade 288.5 346.7 334.0 364.5 334.7 % YoY 12.4 18.9 16.8 22.6 21.9 Retail Trade 189.4 200.7 200.2 201.3

’000 person %

Source : National Statistical Office 11

The rate of change of employed persons by industry

Unemployment

Regional Economy Division, Northern Region Office

%YOY% of Total Labor Force

(as of Jun 17)2016*

2017

H1 Q1 Q2 Q3

Labor Force (1,000 Persons) 100 6,406.5 6,364.4 6,376.4 3,352.4 6,322.4Employed persons 98.6 -1.3 -0.9 -1.8 0.0 -2.0Agriculture 45.7 -7.4 3.6 0.9 6.5 -2.0Non-agriculture 52.9 3.7 -3.9 -3.6 -4.2 -2.0

Manufacturing 8.1 -0.9 -8.1 -11.7 -4.4 2.3Construction 8.4 4.6 -7.3 -6.5 -8.0 -2.1Wholesale & retail trade 12.9 3.5 -5.4 -5.3 -5.5 -2.7Hotel & restaurants 6.4 7.3 -0.6 0.8 -2.1 -4.0Others 23.5 5.6 0.3 2.6 -1.9 -2.9

Unemployed persons 0.9 22.4 17.1 2.6 33.7 -3.5Seasonally inactive persons 0.4 -12.4 10.3 23.0 1.5 115.8

Unemployed 2016* 2017H1 Q1 Q2 Q3

‘000 persons 60.9 68.4 64.1 72.6 61.4rate 0.96 1.08 1.01 1.14 0.97

Unemployment persons Unemployment rate

Labor Force Survey

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1.0

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25

50

75

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2014 2015 20162014 2015 2016

* Calculated by Bank of Thailand, Northern Region Office

Page 12: The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions · 2016 2017 H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P Wholesale Trade 288.5 346.7 334.0 364.5 334.7 % YoY 12.4 18.9 16.8 22.6 21.9 Retail Trade 189.4 200.7 200.2 201.3

Commercial Bank’s Deposits Commercial Bank’s Credits

Billion Baht % YoY Billion Baht % YoY

Source : Bank of Thailand

Deposits and Credits of Commercial BanksRegional Economy Division, Northern Region Office

12

BillionBaht

20162017

H1 Q1 Q2 Q3

Deposits 637.9 647.5 654.9 647.5 641.9

% YoY 2.5 1.2 2.6 1.2 2.2

Billion Baht

20162017

H1 Q1 Q2 Q3

Credits 584.5 579.8 579.4 579.8 585.9

% YoY -0.7 -0.2 -1.1 -0.2 0.7

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