The Nexus Between Knowledge Management and Futures Studies

Propositions

Futures studies are ‘knowledge activities’ requiring management competencies.

Futures studies are people-centric, and explicitly address the difficulties in elicitation and codification of knowledge

Futures studies methods offer alternative approaches to knowledge management practice

Knowledge Activities as a Journey Embracing Multiple Perspectives

Monitoring environmental changes

Direction-setting

AgencyStrategy & Integration

Performance Systems

Operations

Policy

Disruption from the environment: political, physical, technological, economic, social and trade

Deviation from plans

Knowledge Activities as Integrative

Knowledge Activities in Need of ‘Helps’ to Support Understanding

‘Neither the naked hand nor the understanding left to itself can effect much. It is by instruments and helps that work is best done, which are as much wanted for the understanding as for the hand.’

(Francis Bacon, 1620)

Futures Studies in Context

Futures Studies Principles

is not about predicting the future, creates a choice of futures by outlining

alternative possibilities, is a foundation for planning, is interdisciplinary, is often based on both imagination and

historical knowledge, is often aimed at shaping present action.

Typology of Futures Studies Methods

Futures Studies

Counter Punchers

Extrapolators

Pattern Analysts

Goal Analysts

Intuitors Eg. Delphi Studies

Eg. Content Analysis

Eg. Analysis by Analogy

Eg. Fisher-Pry Analysis

Eg. Scenario Analysis

Knowledge Principles

Knowledge originates and resides in people's minds (Tom Davenport)

Knowledge is volunteered, never conscripted (Peter Drucker)

We know more than we can say and we can say more that we can write (Michael Polanyi)

We only know what we know when we need to know it (Dave Snowden)

Knowledge itself is power (Francis Bacon)

Knowledge Processes

Challenges in Knowledge Management Supply Side Issues:

Knowledge elicitation Knowledge codification Knowledge transfer

Demand Side Issues: Knowledge creation Bridging the ‘knowing-doing’ gap

Knowledge Elicitation

Use of open-ended questions Use of ‘remarkable people’ Thinking outside of the box Envisioning the possible Connecting with and shining light upon

existing ‘mental models’

Knowledge Codification

models

scenarios

stories

Clarity of Understanding

Qualit

ative

Quantit

ativ

e

Com

ple

ten

ess o

f In

form

ati

on

Knowledge Transfer

Strategic conversation – a shared language and a common view about the future that can be the basis of continuing discussion and exploration

Building bridges to bring together knowledge and expertise in many people across all areas and activities in order to increase collective well-being

Knowledge Creation

Generates insights that may not otherwise be accessible eg. signposts which are events, occurrences or observations that can be scanned in the real world

Avoids the ‘structural inertia’ of forecasting, which presumes that the future can be described from the past and the present

Signposts to Alternate Futures

2001

2020

Today

I II III IV

Uncertainty

Uncertainty

Uncertainty Uncertainty

Uncertainty

Bridging the ‘Knowing-Doing’ Gap Catalyst for innovation, creativity and future-

focused thinking Wind tunneling to discriminate enduring

‘value drivers’ from a plethora of variables

Cautionary Tales

Creation of organisational ‘blind spots’ from believing scenarios

Creation of ‘informed elites’ Creation of communication difficulties Marginalisation of knowledge activity in

isolation of organisational decision making

Concluding Thoughts

The field of futures studies can provide ‘helps’ and ‘instruments’ for some of the more challenging aspects of KM practice

The essentially people-centric approaches of futures studies may offer a counter-balance to technology-centric approaches of the KM industry

The artifacts of futures studies respond well to knowledge dynamics