the next normal - five stages of emergence

The Next Normal ™:Five Stages of Emergence

© 2013 Malcolm Ryder / archestra

What is the Next Normal?

• The next normal occurs when a new system replaces the old system in both its role and its opportunity as the preferred one to use.

• A system occurs when a set of interacting items routinely take on a primary group behavior that is systemic. That is, each of a critical number of elements act, both consistently and persistently, primarily through their interactions with each other.

• The routine behavior (form) of the system occurs when the system is in a state of dynamic equilibrium, not just static configuration.

• When the routine behavior consistently takes the place of a predecessor, the routine becomes the next “normal”.

How does the next normal occur?

• At the element level, a critical amount of modifications and replacements can occur that together create new interaction patterns having more impact than prior ones.

• “Systems” are recognized as systems only when those interior impacts have relatively predictable directionality and location. But impacts do not have significant effects by default. Impacts are types, not levels. Impacts can become “effective” by force or by adoption, on a case-by-case basis.

• The next normal occurs when a new system’s effectiveness allows it to become a statistically predominant preference over an older system’s effectiveness. The preference may occur by force (causality or mandate) or by choice (attraction), leading to its potential predominance. It is important to note that the key difference here is in how the result is achieved, not in what result is achieved.

What causes the next normal?• In an existing system, dynamic equilibrium relies on the compatibility of its elements to create

circumstances in which the dynamics are realized.

• System elements are not only objects. Elements can be forces and states as well as objects.

• A system becomes replaceable when the effectiveness of the system relies on compatibilities that are unattractive or impossible to sustain in comparison to the compatibilities required by other available systems.

• An alternative system becomes a candidate for “normal” because its internal compatibilities are more supportable than the incumbent system’s.

• Outside of the laws of Nature, both compatibilities and supportability are circumstances that are either engineered or farmed.

• In an organization, supportability is particularly sensitive to priorities. Priorities are typically established with regard to competition, cooperation, or cohesion. These issues correspond approximately to advantage, competency, and protection. Changes underlying the priorities have upstream influence.

What are the indicators of future change in a system? Factors arranged to promote priorities.Following from the above: advantage, competency, and protection are variables representing the priorities that drive internal support of the system. Each one can increase or decrease, as the result of ongoing exposure to the consequences of the actions of other parties or one’s own actions. (It is instructive to note that a “party”, which provides the support of the system, can be a company, a market, or an entire community…)

Targets of Priorities

Other party’s inhibiting action

Own inhibiting action

Other party’s encouraging action

Own encouraging action

Advantage Speed Risk-aversion Sponsors Surveillance

Competency Efficiency Underfunding Suppliers New knowledge

Protection Scale Silos Partners Adaptability

When the key variables change, their related priorities may change, which in turn alters support of the compatibilities of systemic elements, potentially changing the equilibrium and the further predominance of the system. That change will invite a renovation of the system or deference to another (competitor) system.


As organizations know, demand applies pressure on intra-system priorities and compatibilities, provoking change.

Stage Conditions predisposing the subsequent state States within the system

1 Both commodity and premium options are disproportionately inconvenient

Managed resources lose their ROI

2 Interactions are not agile enough at needed frequency Support does not scale to satisfy types of demand

3 Workarounds and innovations appear and stay Alternative systemic interactions prove their benefit/risk ratio

4 New kinds of value are broadly discovered and promoted

Design efforts remodel opportunities around alternatives

5 Immediate impacts are easily adopted and leveraged for benefit, fostering their proliferation

New opportunities have strong short-term ROI

The idea of a chain reaction of “events” is always popular, but that is mainly because we can understand how certain conditions predispose the likelihood of others. In that sense, the eventual occurrence of “the next normal” can be seen as “precipitated” through a series of distinctive states ultimately allowing and encouraging the new system to replace the old. In the example here, reflecting an organization’s relationship to the systems, continuous pressure from demand in the environment of the system encouraged each stage to occur. The example shows highly familiar conditions that developed. This retrospective view can be held as a model, useful primarily for spotting other similar observations and connections.


Wrap-up

• An organization can produce system elements, and it may itself be a system element.

• If demand alters the behavior of an organization, it may affect the equilibrium of related systems.

• If a system becomes unstable, alternative interactions can find success and instigate rearrangement of elements within and around the originals, to favor new preferences in demand.

• Consistent support of new interactions can mature into making the alternatives the next normal.

the next normal - five stages of emergence

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