The new scenario process for climate change research and socioeconomic

data challenges

Brian O’Neill NCAR

February 19, 2015

Scenarios Plausible descriptions of the future evolution of climate and society. Qualitative and quantitative.

Scenario framework goals

Facilitate research information that can inform many different studies on mitigation, adaptation, and impacts

Facilitate assessment common futures that can be used across a wide range of studies so that they are more comparable

Explore uncertainty Span relevant ranges of uncertainty in climate change outcomes and socio-economic development pathways

The Parallel Process

RCPs

O’Neill & Schweizer, 2011; based on Moss et al. (2010).

Climate SSPs

Knutti and Sedlacek, 2012.

Climate model simulations based on RCPs

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

Hypothetical “reference” development pathway

Reference: –  No climate policy (mitigation or adaptation) –  No effects of climate change

Development pathway: –  Does not include typical model output (emissions, land

use, etc.)

Narrative Qualitative description of broad patterns of development Logic relating elements of narrative to each other

Quantitative elements Population Education Urbanization Income Spatial population Income distribution Etc.

SSP 2

Socio-economic challenges for adaptation

Soci

o-ec

onom

ic ch

alle

nges

for m

itiga

tion

SSP Logic

SSP 1: (Low Challenges)

Sustainability

SSP 3: (High Challenges)

Regional Rivalry

SSP 4: (Adapt. Challenges Dominate)

Inequality

SSP 5: (Mit. Challenges Dominate)

Fossil-fueled Development

SSP 2: (Intermediate Challenges) Middle of the Road

Relevant range of uncertainty spanned:

challenges to adaptation, mitigation

SSP Narratives

SSP3: Regional Rivalry Growing interest in regional identity and concerns about competitiveness and security push countries to increasingly focus on domestic or, at most, regional issues. This trend is reinforced by the limited number of comparatively weak global institutions, with uneven coordination and cooperation for addressing environmental concerns. Policies are oriented towards security, including barriers to trade, particularly in the energy resource and agricultural markets. Countries focus on achieving energy and food security goals within their own region, at the expense of broader-based development. A low international priority for addressing environmental concerns leads to strong environmental degradation in some regions. The combination of impeded development and limited environmental concern results in poor progress towards sustainability. … etc.

SSP 3

O’Neill et al., 2015.

Summary of SSP Status

Conceptual framework established –  Special issue of Climatic Change published (2013/4)

Narratives and quantification of key drivers completed –  Special issue of Global Environmental Change in

progress

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

SSP4

SSP5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

GDP  pe

r  cap

its  ($/cap

 -­‐PP

P)

GDP/cap Population

Urbanization

(IIASA) (NCAR) (OECD, PIK, NCAR)

Forc

ing

leve

l (W

/m2 )

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 Shared Socio-economic Pathways

SSP4 SSP5

RCPs

C

lima

te

SSPs Narratives Quantitative drivers

Impact, adaptation, or mitigation study

Combining SSPs with climate projections to produce integrated analyses

Basic vs Extended

SSPs SSP 4

SSP4

SSP 4 Extended

SSP4 SSP 4 Extended

SSP4

Basic

Regional Extension

Global Extension

Broad trends in development, limited in regional and sectoral detail

SSP 4 Extended

SSP4

Sectoral Extension

Extension: Global Spatial Population Projections

Jones & O’Neill, in prep.

Extension: Income distribution within countries

Important for –  vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity –  evaluating distributional consequences of climate

policy –  energy use and emissions

Differ widely across SSPs (e.g., SSP4: “Inequality”) Institutions involved in generating income distributions for SSPs

–  IIASA, University of Denver, Stockholm Environment Institute, World Bank, Purdue University, NCAR

Extension: Regional scenarios

Regional scenarios informed by SSPs underway –  Arctic Council scenarios –  European projects (e.g., IMPRESSIONS) –  AgMIP regional assessments –  ??

Information needs: Spatial demographic and land cover data

Spatial population counts consistent over time and across countries (e.g., ~10km or less)

Spatial population characteristics

age, income (e.g., grid cell, or individual cities)

Spatial urban land cover

by urban type (tall building district, suburbs, slums, etc.)

by building characteristics

Migration

by origin and destination, by rural/urban, sub-national units

Information needs: Economic characteristics of sub-populations

Characteristics expenditure patterns, income (labor and assets), savings, assets

access to energy

formal/informal economy

Sub-groups

urban/rural, income, education

Data features

consistent across countries and over time

access, cost, translation, assistance in analysis

Better Data Better Models

Better Scenarios