the new normal - amárach presentation to sales institute breakfast briefing october 2009
DESCRIPTION
A presentation on the market experiences and expectations of Irish sales managers and directors and a look ahead to new consumer realities in Ireland.TRANSCRIPT
1The New Normal
An An Amárach Amárach Research Research PresentationPresentationOctober 2009October 2009
© © Amárach ResearchAmárach Research
1. Reality Checkhow was it for you?
2. Psychological Recovery hearts, heads, purses
2The New Normal
hearts, heads, purses
3. The New Normal no going back
1. Reality Checkhow was it for you?
3The New Normal
how was it for you?
News from the Front
Online survey of SII Members
September 2009
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Current experiences in Ireland& future expectations
173 response –all sizes and sectors
Are We There Yet?
19%19%
52%52%
27%27%
Current Perceptions of the Irish MarketCurrent Perceptions of the Irish Market
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19%19%
2%2%
Bad and getting Bad and getting worseworse
Bad but stabilisingBad but stabilising Bad but showing Bad but showing signs of signs of
improvementimprovement
Over the worst Over the worst and improving and improving
stronglystrongly
Feeling the Pain
80%80%
44%44%
Sales Outlook: 2009 and 2010Sales Outlook: 2009 and 2010
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9%9% 11%11%
44%44%
34%34%
22%22%
Higher than previous Higher than previous yearyear
Same as previous yearSame as previous year Lower than previous Lower than previous yearyear
2009 Sales2009 Sales 2010 Sales2010 Sales
Sales Drivers
30%30% 29%29%
20%20%
What Sales Approach is Currently Successful?What Sales Approach is Currently Successful?
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10%10%8%8%
3%3%
Lower Lower PricesPrices
Better Better Value, Same Value, Same
PricesPrices
New New ProductsProducts
Volume Volume DiscountsDiscounts
Advertising Advertising & Promotion& Promotion
Other (e.g.: Other (e.g.: trade shows trade shows
etc)etc)
Planning Hopefully
32%32%34%34%
When Will The Worst Be Over In Irish Market?When Will The Worst Be Over In Irish Market?
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3%3%7%7% 7%7%
Already over Already over the worstthe worst
By the end of By the end of this yearthis year
By the middle By the middle of 2010of 2010
By the end of By the end of 20102010
Don't knowDon't know
Recessions are macroeconomic
Recessions and Recoveries have one thing in common: they are usually well under way before they show up in the official statistics ...
9The New Normal
Recessions are macroeconomic phenomena in the main ...
whereas Recoveries are microeconomic phenomena.
2. Psychological Recovery hearts, heads, purses
10The New Normal
hearts, heads, purses
2. Reality Check: hearts & wallets
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Confident Outlook
12The New Normal
13The New Normal Source: CSO, ESRI, Amárach calculations
What Goes Around
We are ... ?
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-
The Economic Recovery Index
AprilApril 00%% SeptemberSeptember 00%%
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April 77%April 77% SeptemberSeptember 5050%%
AprilApril 1414%% September 28September 28%%
April 8%April 8% September September 2121%%
April April 11%% SeptemberSeptember 11%%
Marginal Propensities
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... but as the fear of unemployment
Debt and negative equity will curtail any urge to splurge for many consumers for the foreseeable future ...
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... but as the fear of unemploymentabates, consumers will loosen their
purse strings, wallets and savings accounts: beginning in H1 2010 and
becoming ‘official’ in H2 2010.
3. The New Normal no going back
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On the web nobody can hear you switch
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Everyone Has Their Price
20The New Normal
Customer Disloyalty
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Customer Disloyalty II
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Generational Shift
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After: The Role of Demographics in Precipitating Crises in Financial Institutions, Diane Macunovich, September 2009
The Boom of Youth
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The 2016 Generation
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30%30%
40%40%
50%50%
60%60%
70%70%
Yesterday, did you experience?Yesterday, did you experience?
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0%0%
10%10%
20%20%
30%30%
AprilApril MayMay JuneJune JulyJuly AugustAugust SeptemberSeptember
EnjoymentEnjoymentHappinessHappiness
2010 looks like being ‘less worse’ than 2009 (and will get and feel a lot better as the year progresses).
Make Customer Loyalty your number one priority to avoid ‘revenge switching’ when
27The New Normal
‘revenge switching’ when confidence improves.
Watch out for demography: we’re all getting older and so are your customers.
Be Happy – it’s both popular and contagious!
Amárach Amárach ResearchResearch11 Kingswood Business Centre11 Kingswood Business CentreCitywestCitywest Business CampusBusiness CampusDublin Dublin 2424
28The New Normal
TT. . (01) 410 5200(01) 410 5200
E:E: gerard.oneillgerard.oneill@@amarach.comamarach.comBB: : wwwwww.turbulenceahead..turbulenceahead.comcom
We are Ireland’s largest independent market research agency, in business since 1989.
We focus on delivering two key benefits to our clients:
1. Consumer Foresight– using market research to say ‘what next’.
2. Business Insight– using research to make business decisions.
We provide the full array of market research
Appendix: About Amárach
3rd March 2009
Welcome to the latest edition of consumerforesight from Amárach Research. We have set out to make consumerforesight a more interactive and informative research and planning tool for subscribers. Feel free to invite others to register for our free eLetter on our home page.
Two months gone, ten to go. Like Keith Richards, we’re all at the
stage of “it’s good to be here – it’s good to be anywhere”. But it
is tough out there. Against a background of industrial unrest
(even the Gardaí are protesting!), we shouldn’t be surprised if consumers are on something of a ‘go slow’ themselves.
But it won’t last. It’s too early for green shoots, but as time goes
by people will want to buy: especially those still in secure jobs
who are faced with extraordinary bargains in shops, hotels and
car showrooms. Irish consumers don’t really do hair shirts.
When we have money we can afford to spend then we’re usually
inclined to spend it: assuming we’re getting good value and not being ripped off.
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We provide the full array of market research services including:
- Quantitative: face-to-face, telephone, web- Qualitative: focus groups, in-depths, ethnographic- Field Only: for international & domestic agencies
Register for our free fortnightly eletterconsumerforesight at: www.amarach.com
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being ripped off.
Don’t forget: for every person in Ireland with a mortgage,
loan or ‘maxed out’ credit card there is another person
without any debt (at all). What are you doing to tap the
‘worried well’ market?
Before you embark on a new brand or
business just remember Seth Godin’s
three things you need read more
With the world all ‘a-twitter’ don’t forget
the future is on the TV read more
It’s all down to psychology – an Amárach
presentation on how Irish consumers will lead us to recovery read more
Business is about passion: so for that matter is
the economy – check out some wise words on the
role of passion in success read more
How not to do food marketing: quite possibly the
worst food in the world read more
Optimistic people are healthy and happy – even
when the economy is collapsing around them: what are you doing for optimism? read more
Amárach Research will present a paper on ‘Life Online 2009’ at Comreg’s ICT Research conference on 12th
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http://www.breathecast.com/Christian.Music.Artist-Phil.Joel/AlbumView-870_2597.htm
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