the new mega trends sarwant singh frost sullivan
TRANSCRIPT
New Mega Trends Macro to Micro Opportunities on
Future Business, Cultures and Personal Lives
Sarwant Singh
Mega Trend 1:
Urbanisation - “City as a Customer”
Mega Cities Mega
Regions
Mega Slums Mega
Corridor
Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future
Cities like Seoul account for 50% of the country’s GDP; Budapest (Hungary) and Brussels (Belgium) each for roughly 45%.
What are the Micro Implications? High Economic Power Hub and Spoke Business Model Transit oriented development New Mobility Solutions City as a Customer
Siemens Focuses on “City as the Customer”
Energy
Rail Systems
Mobility & Logistics
Low & Medium Voltage
Smart Grid
Building Technologies
OSRAM
Integrated Competencies into One Division
Pre- October 2011
Independent Silos
Infrastructure &
Cities
Post-October 2011
“City as the Customer”
Healthcare
Industry
Mega Trend 2:
Smart is the New Green
Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition
Telecom Players
IT Players
Energy/Infrastructure Players
Automation/Building Control Players
Note: This is an illustration and does not show all market players
Point of Convergence
Verizon
O2
Deutsche Telekom
Cisco
IBM
Schneider Electric
Alcatel-Lucent
Senergy
Eaton Siemens
General Electric
ABB Emerson
Honeywell
Rockwell Automation
Johnson Controls
SAP
HP ST
Electronics
Oracle
Microsoft
Mega Trend 3:
Social Trends
Gen Y Geo Socialization
“She-conomy”
Ageing Population
Reverse Brain Drain
Middle Bulge
Generational Political Shift
Surge in Asian Work
Pool
Mega Trend 4:
Economic Trends
The Next Game Changers in 2025
$2,212 Billion
$5,467 Billion
$654 Billion
$709 Billion
$1,167 Billion $2,601
Billion
$687 Billion $6,235
Billion
$38,526 Billion
$6,189 Billion
$803 Billion $323
Billion
$483 Billion $4,816
Billion
Mexico Brazil
Argentina
Egypt
South Africa
Turkey
Poland
India
China
Russia
Indonesia
Thailand
Vietnam
Philippines
BRIC Nations
Next Game Changers
Note : The figure denotes GDP at market prices. Forecasts have been made based on Real GDP growth rates
Mega Trend 5:
Connectivity & Convergence
10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020
5 billion internet users by 2020
5 connected devices for every user by 2020
500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020
80 Billion Connected Devices By 2020
Technology Convergence Industry Convergence Product Convergence
Connectivity will Lead to Convergence of Products, Technologies and Industries
UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
V2V Vehicle to vehicle
Vehicle to Infrastructure
Vehicle to Home V2H
V2I
Mega Trend 6:
Innovating to Zero
Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020
Zero Emissions from Cars
Zero Accidents
Zero Breaches of
Security
Zero Crime Rates
Zero Waste/ Emissions
Complete Recyclability from
Households (Cradle to Cradle Concept)
Zero Defects and Zero
Faults
Carbon Neutral Factories and Retail Stores
Carbon Neutral Cities
Zero Corporate
Debts
Zero Emails
Mega Trend 7:
New Business Models: Value for Many
New Business Models
Personalization and Customization
Personalization & Customization
Nike
Quirky .com
Co-Creation
One-off Experience
Pay as you Fly Unmanned
Aerial Vehicles (Thales)
(red letter Days)
Will Replace
“Value for Many”
“Value for Money”
Free Premium
Freemium
+
=
Mega Trend 8:
Health, Wellness and Wellbeing
Mood
Stress levels
Mental health
Sense of optimism
Attitude
Security
Safety
Personal values
Personal fulfilment
Self image / self actualisation
Sight / vision
Touch & feel
Smell / breathing
Sound
Temperature
Wellness
The 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul - Contribute To Humans Definition of Health,
Wellness and Well Being
Future of Health, Wellness and Wellbeing
Mega Trend 9:
High Speed Rail
In Future, HS Rail will not only Connect Cities and Countries but will also Connect Continents
• China : 25,000 kms by 2025 (7,431 kms in 2010) • 2020 Trans Siberian Link: New Route 66 • Biggest Project: $68 billion California HSR • UK project: £33 billion (by 2026)
What are the Opportunities? • Copper-silver and copper-magnesium wires • Steel Companies • Construction tooling, spare parts • Condition monitoring, security, surveillance, • Data handling, Passenger information
systems • High Speed Logistics • Mergers and Acquisitions
Macro Micro
From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation
Mega Trend Selected trends that impact your
business and markets
Sub Trend A sub-layer of trends that has a
wide ranging impact
Impact to Your Industry Visualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario-
building and macro economic forecasts
Impact on Future Product/ Technology
Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs
To
Contact Us
Sarwant Singh Partner & Practice Director, Visionary Innovation Research Group and Automotive & Transportation
(+44) 2079157843
Archana Amarnath Program Manager, Visionary Innovation Research Group
(+44) 2079157893