the new jersey economy jim diffley senior director ihs economics 14 october 2014
TRANSCRIPT
The New Jersey Economy
Jim DiffleySenior DirectorIHS Economics
14 October 2014
© 2014 IHS
Analysis - Strengths
• Location• Educational attainment• Wealth• New York City• Port of NY & NJ• Business Infrastructure• Immigration• Shore
2
© 2014 IHS 3
Economic Growth Lags US (real gdp)
20102005200019951990
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
Inde
x (1
990
= 1.
00) Index (1990 = 1.00)
US NJ
© 2014 IHS 4
Job levels return to pre-recession peak
Percent 0.8 to 1.2 1.2 to 1.4 1.4 to 1.7 1.8 to 2.6
Return To Peak2010 - 2013201420152016 - 20172018+
© 2014 IHS
Analysis - Weakness
• Housing bubble• Home equity
• Household spending
• Sand state• South Jersey
• Judicial review and foreclosures
• Pharma• Chemistry vs Biology
• Rise of the Cities• New York, Washington, San Francisco
• Business costs• Lagged business cycle recovery
5
© 2014 IHS 6
Forecast – Personal Income
202020182016201420122010
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
perc
ent c
hang
e
percent change
New Jersey US
© 2014 IHS 7
Questions? Please contact us!
Jean Dugan Financial Markets Group 2 Grand Central Tower | 140 East 45th Street | 40th Floor Phone: +1 212 884 9517 [email protected]
Jim DiffleySenior Director IHS [email protected]