The new growth agenda: Beyond the path of least resistance?

BOND, 22 March 2011Alex Cobham (acobham@christian-aid.org)

4 pointsDon’t take the path of least resistance

‘More’ is not enough

‘More(+)’ is not sustainable – on its own terms, or natural resources

The path less travelled…

The path of least resistance‘More’ is enough

■ (and let the chips fall where they may)

‘More’+ is sustainable/inclusive/ etc■ i.e. go for growth, but add more aims

Don’t take this path!

‘More’ would be enough? (i)

‘More’ would be enough? (ii)Kuznets is a bustInitial conditions dominate, e.g.:

■ Democracy■ Female participation■ Education

‘More’ is not enoughcf DFID: “Growth cannot be achieved

without ensuring marginalised and excluded groups are part of human development strategies”

‘More’ would be sustainable – on its own terms?

Growth econometrics offers little

Need longer-term view, focus on individual country experiences: Ranis, Stewart and Ramirez…

HD and EG: which is the egg?

Performance over time

0102030405060708090

100

Viciou

s circ

le

Growth-lo

psided

Develo

pment-lo

psided

Virtuous c

ircle

Virtuouscircle

Development-lopsided

Growth-lopsided

Vicious circle

‘More’ would be sustainable – in the broader sense?

Which countries’ economic growth is taking them closer to sustainability in terms of:

■ Water■ Oil■ Metals■ Species■ …(food?)…

Will we even become serious about measuring this?

‘More+’ is not sustainable

The path less travelled (i)Try the following…

Top line: do what has been said forever - treat growth as an instrument not a goal (cf. DFID to EC: “Growth should be treated as one among a number of important goals”)

The path less travelled (ii)Implication: equivalent to changing core business practice of PS, not CSR: so subordinate growth to development goal, rather than growth + nice thingsThree key issues of DFID, EC approach:

■ Development diagnostics - not growth diagnostics

■ Focus on initial conditions: assessment of likely growth impacts and addressing obstacles to ‘inclusiveness’ before pursuing growth

■ Seriously address data issue: to be able to measure ‘sustainability’ of growth in a meaningful way before pursuit (of one without the other)

The new growth agenda: Beyond the path of least resistance?

BOND, 22 March 2011Alex Cobham (acobham@christian-aid.org)

The road not takenTwo roads diverged in a yellow wood,

And sorry I could not travel bothAnd be one traveller, long I stoodAnd looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth;

Then took the other, as just as fair, And having perhaps the better claim, Because it was grassy and wanted wear; Though as for that the passing there Had worn them really about the same,

And both that morning equally lay In leaves no step had trodden black. Oh, I kept the first for another day! Yet knowing how way leads on to way, I doubted if I should ever come back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh Somewhere ages and ages hence: Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference

Robert Frost, 1920

Mitchell to Piebalgs…