© 2018 Ipsos

TheNew Canada

© 2018 Darrell Bricker. All rights reserved. Contains Proprietary information and insights may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of the presenter.

Presented by:Dr. Darrell Bricker

© 2018 Ipsos

We Don’t Know Our Own Country Anymore

2

© 2018 Ipsos

The Forces of Change Are Creating a New Canada

3

© 2018 Ipsos

• The “Great White North”

• English and French—very white

• More Rural—focus on natural resources

• Big families, big households, what the kids want

• Values Of Elite Accommodation— driven by white men in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa

• Eyes on the Atlantic, fear of the US.

• Trusting Of Public Authorities And Institutions — (Peace, Order and Good Government)

The Old Canada

4

© 2018 Ipsos© 2018 Ipsos 5

POPULATION PATTERNS

© 2018 Ipsos

EMERGING DEMOGRAPHIC FORCES

6

Fertility/Aging

Urbanization

Multiculturalism

© 2018 Ipsos© 2018 Ipsos 7

FERTILITY

© 2018 Ipsos

1961 1961

2011 2011

Historical Age Pyramid for CanadaMALE FEMALE

8

© 2018 Ipsos

THE FERTILITY RATE DROP

9

Fertility Rate, Canada: 1921 – 2011(average number of children a woman aged 15 to 49 would have in her lifetime)

© 2018 Ipsos

DECLINE EVERYWHERE

10

1.61

1.99

1.86

1.81

1.69

1.62

1.54

1.52

1.47

1.45

1.42

Canada

Saskatchewan

Manitoba

Alberta

Quebec

Prince Edward Island

New Brunswick

Ontario

Nova Scotia

Newfoundland/Labrador

British Columbia

2011 Total Fertility Rate

© 2018 Ipsos

WORLD VS CANADA: FERTILITY RATES

11

WORLD CANADA

1960 = 4.9Today = 2.52050 = 2.3

1960 = 3.9Today = 1.62050 = 1.7

United Nations Population Estimates

© 2018 Ipsos

FERTILITY IN 10 BIGGEST COUNTRIES CUT BY HALF IN LAST HALF CENTURY

12

5.80

5.90

3.70

5.70

6.20

6.60

6.40

6.70

2.50

2.00

1.7

2.5

1.9

2.5

1.8

3.7

5.7

2.2

1.7

1.4

China

India

US

Indonesia

Brazil

Pakistan

Nigeria

Bangladesh

Russia

Japan

Avg. 19605.2Avg. Today2.5

© 2018 Ipsos© 2018 Ipsos 13

AGING

© 2018 Ipsos

AVERAGE LIFESPAN OF CANADIANS

14

57

81

87

1920's

Now

2036

© 2018 Ipsos

POPULATION 65 YEARS AND OVER, BY REGION2011 AND PROJECTED 2036 (PERCENT)

15

14.4

15.8

15.8

16.5

16.2

15.7

14.2

13.9

14.6

10.8

15.3

23.7

31.0

27.4

28.6

29.4

25.1

23.1

21.4

23.3

21.0

23.8

CAN

NL

PE

NS

NB

QC

ON

MB

SK

AB

BC

2011

2036

© 2018 Ipsos

More Seniors Than Kids…

16

© 2018 Ipsos 17

Number of Canadians Aged 100+

7,900By 2061 this will climb to

78,300—the size of Victoria, B.C.

© 2018 Ipsos

WORKING AGE AND DEPENDENCY FOR CANADA

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1971In 1971 there were6.6 people of workingage for each senior

2012In 2012there are 4.2

2036Projections put theratio at 2 to 1 in 2036

PER

PER

PER

6.6

4.2

2.3

© 2018 Ipsos

MEDIAN NET WORTH OF CANADIAN FAMILIES

19

$243,800

$25,300

$182,500

$378,300

$533,600$460,700

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

All Families Under 35 years 35-44 years 45 - 54 years 55-65 years 65+ years

By Age of Family Head, 2011(dollars)

© 2018 Ipsos© 2018 Ipsos 20

URBANIZATION

© 2018 Ipsos

OVER HALF OF WORLD LIVES IN URBAN AREAS

21

% of the World’s population living in urban areas

3454 66

1960 Today 2050

© 2018 Ipsos

RURAL VS. URBAN POPULATION IN CANADA: 1851-2011

22

19

81

0102030405060708090

100

% O

F TO

TAL

CAN

ADIA

N

POPU

LATI

ON

YEAR

Rural Population in Canada Urban Population in Canada

Note: The rural population for 1981 to 2006 refers to persons living outside centres with a population of 1,000 AND outside areas with 400 persons per square kilometre. Previous to 1981, the definitions differed slightly but consistently referred to populations outside centres of 1,000 population.Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1851 to 2006.Last modified:

© 2018 Ipsos

THE BIG SHIFT: SHARE OF POPULATION BY REGION

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10.4%

28.9%

34.3%

17.5%

9.0%

6.6%

23.3%

38.4%

18.4%

13.3%

Atlantic

Quebec

Ontario

Prairies

BC 1961 2016

© 2018 Ipsos

THE BIG SHIFT CONTINUES: POPULATION GROWTH 2011-2016

24

5.00

11.60

6.30

5.80

5.60

4.60

3.30

1.90

1.00

0.20

-0.50

Canada

Alberta

Saskatchewan

Manitoba

BC

Ontario

Quebec

PEI

Newfoundland/Labrador

Nova Scotia

New BrunswickNew Brunswick -0.5

© 2018 Ipsos

POPULATION GROWTH FOR MAJOR CITIES

25

Calgary

Vancouver

Toronto

Ottawa/Gatineau

Montreal

Halifax

14.6%

6.5%

6.2%

5.5%

4.2%

3.3% 2011 - 2016

© 2018 Ipsos

TEN FASTEST GROWING METROPOLITAN AREAS

26

Calgary

Edmonton

Saskatoon

Regina

Lethbridge

Kelowna

14.6%

13.9%

12.5%

11.8%

10.8%

8.4%

7.7%

6.7%

6.6%

6.6%

Guelph

Victoria

Oshawa

Winnipeg 2011 - 2016

© 2018 Ipsos

TEN SLOWEST GROWING METROPOLITAN AREAS

27

2011 - 2016

Saint John

Thunder Bay

Greater Sudbury

Kingston

Saguenay

Belleville

-2.2%

0.0%

1.0%

1.0%

1.5%

1.8%

2.3%

2.8%

3.1%

3.3%

Peterborough

Trois-Rivières

Windsor

Halifax

© 2018 Ipsos© 2018 Ipsos 28

IMMIGRATION:

CANADA’S SECRET WEAPON

© 2018 Ipsos

AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH FOR THE G8

29

1.0%

0.8%

0.7%

0.6%

0.5%

0.4%

0.1%

-0.1%

Canada Leads the Pack

United States

UK

Italy

Russia

France

Germany

Japan

2011 - 2016

© 2018 Ipsos

CHANGE IN IMMIGRATION ENTRY CLASSIFICATION

30

99,3541986

271,8452015

Refugees19%

EconomicImmigrants36%Family

Class42%

Other Immigrants 2%

FamilyClass

24%

EconomicImmigrants63%

Refugees 13%

EMPHASIS ON ECONOMIC IMMIGRANTS

© 2018 Ipsos

TOP 10 COUNTRIES OF BIRTH OF RECENT IMMIGRANTS TO CANADA

31

26,497

24,424

12,456

8,533

7,902

6,327

5,672

5,670

5,377

4,410

U.K.

U.S.

West Indies

Italy

Portugal

Greece

Yugoslavia

India

China

France

50,846

39,530

19,532

11,669

11,329

9,853

7,522

5,807

5,946

4,133

Philippines

India

China

Iran

Pakistan

Syria

USA

France

UK

Nigeria

(Caribbean)

1970 NOW

© 2018 Ipsos

FOREIGN BORN POPULATION BY REGION 2011

32

20.6

28.5

27.6

16.1

15.7

12.6

6.8

5.3

5.2

3.9

1.8

Canada

ON

BC

AB

MB

QC

SK

NS

PE

NB

NL

(percent)

© 2018 Ipsos

9 OF 10 IMMIGRANTS LIVE IN URBAN CANADA

33

91

69.1

Immigrants Total Canadian Population

POPULATION LIVING IN A LARGE URBAN AREA – 2011(percent)

© 2018 Ipsos

FOREIGN BORN – AS A % OF CITY POPULATION

34

49.7%

39.6%36.5% 34.7%

31.7%28.9% 27.9%

20.6% 19.9%

© 2018 Ipsos

Will This Change?

35

© 2018 Ipsos

Top Countries for Relocation: Canada Near the Top…

34%22%

20%20%

16%15%

13%12%

11%9%9%

8%8%

7%7%7%

6%6%

5%5%

United StatesUnited Kingdom

CanadaAustralia

SwitzerlandGermany

FranceNew Zealand

ItalySpain

SingaporeJapan

SwedenUnited Arab Emirates

NetherlandsNorwayAustria

Hong KongBrazil

Ireland

FL3. Still assuming you had a full-time job opportunity abroad, which country would you most want to relocate to?Base: All Employed Respondents: n= 12827

Mentions smaller than 5% are not shown.

36

© 2018 Ipsos

“Immigration is causing my country to change in ways that I don’t like”

37

77%63%

57%56%

54%52%

49%49%

46%46%46%45%45%

44%43%42%41%

40%38%38%

34%32%

27%24%

23%

TurkeyItaly

RussiaBelgiumHungary

South AfricaFrance

IndiaSpain

United StatesArgentinaGermanyAustraliaSweden

Great BritainSerbia

PolandCanada

Saudi ArabiaNew Zealand

PeruMexico

JapanSouth Korea

Brazil

2017 – Strongly agree/ tend to agree

74%63%

60%55%56%

49%54%

52%41%

52%43%44%

49%41%

47%

43%44%

38%

30%24%

30%23%

2016 – Strongly agree/ tend to agree

“Immigration is causing my country to change in ways that I don’t like”.

© 2018 Ipsos

Q16 Perceptions -Society

KEY:Agree 2016 Disagree 2016

Agree 2014 Disagree 2014

There are too many immigrants in my country

55%83%70%69%69%69%66%66%59%59%58%56%55%53%52%52%51%47%46%41%40%36%19%

35%13%22%25%20%25%24%24%33%31%33%35%39%40%38%37%41%41%43%46%51%46%58%

TotalTurkey

ItalyIndia

RussiaS Africa

BelgiumFrance

GermanyU.S.

IndonesiaGB

SwedenMexico

ArgentinaSpainPeru

AustraliaCanada

BrazilS KoreaPoland

Japan

Base: 17,180 adults across 22 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016

T12345678910111213141516171819202122

38

© 2018 Ipsos

The Transition to aNew Canadian Mindset

39

© 2018 Ipsos

The New Canada

• Urban-Suburban

• Multicultural

• Older, More Female

• Smaller households

• Increasing Generational Divide

• Eyes on the Pacific

• Tolerant, Opinionated, Demanding, Difficult

• “We The North”

40

© 2018 Ipsos

For You…THE NEW CANADA

• Growth GTA to the West.

• Suburban growth, rural/small town contraction.

• Redefining work and retirement.

• Living longer and healthier.

• Growing share of “well-derly.” Emerging economic, political force.

• More, smaller households. Smaller share of kids.

• Younger generations – crushing debt, crushed dreams.

• Single women at both ends of age scale. The “She-conomy.” Emerging economic, political force.

• Pacific identity.

• New global, mobile, middle class. What do you have for them?

41

© 2018 Ipsos

TheNew Canada

© 2018 Darrell Bricker. All rights reserved. Contains Proprietary information and insights may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written

consent of the presenter.

Presented by:Dr. Darrell Bricker