the need for a multi-faceted appraisal framework for major
TRANSCRIPT
Andrew Marsay Transport Economist"Aligning financial cost with real economic value"
“Theneedforamulti-facetedappraisalframeworkformajorpublictransport
investmentsinSouthAfrica ”
i-TransportUATPconferenceandexhibitionSandtonConventionCentre,20th June2018
Structureoftoday’spresentation
ReviewoftheconclusionsofmyUATP2017presentation
HowwehavemeasuredthevalueofPTinrecentyears
Whatstakeholderssaythattheywant frompublictransport
Whatparametersweneedtobeabletomeasurebetter
Someresearchproposalsforimprovingourevaluationtools
Conclusionsof2017presentation(1)
Lackofconsensusaboutourtransportinvestmentprioritiesmeansthatwehavecompetingvisionsofourfuturemetropolitanform:
– Unreformedrail+commuterbusesstillservingdiscriminatorystatusquo
– MBT,unpricedroads,e-hailing(‘Uber’)=gowiththeflow oflowdensity
– ModernPT+pricedroadstosupportahighdensity,highvaluefuture
Conclusionsof2017presentation(2)
Currenttransportpolicy,ase.g.inGauteng’sITMP25,appearstosupportthedevelopmentofthehighdensity/valueurbanfuture:
– Subsidizedhousingprovisionwithinurbancoreareas– Landusedensificationinsupportofpublictransport– Reinforcingthepassengerrailnetwork:‘Gautrain2’+(reformed!)PRASA– Integratedroad-basedpublictransportsystems– Provincialtraveldemandmanagementplan– Wellmanaged,sustainablyfunded*,highwaynetwork
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*Gautengreviewofhighwayfundingoptionsshowedthatwhilee-tollingwastheleastwanted option,itwasleastbadforthepoor!
Conclusionsof2017presentation(3)
Adecision-makingtoolisneededthatallowsstakeholderstoarriveataconsensusthatallcan‘own’,includingthefollowingcriteria:
– National/provincial/metropolicyalignment– Efficacyofatransportservice’sinstitutionaldeliverymodel– Statedpreferencesofabroad-basedcrosssectionofsociety– Publiccost(subsidy)perpassengerkmforeachinvestmenttype– Sustainability– theabilityofdifferentmodesoftransporttoactually
securepatronagelevelsneededtodelivertheagreedvision
2017‘proto-type’decision-makingmatrix
HowwehavemeasuredthevalueofPTinrecentyears– twocasestudies
The2004-2006SARCCRailplan:PriorityRailCorridors
TheCaseforGautrain‘1’:TheGautrainIntegrationReports
SARCC’sPriorityRailCorridors
SARCCaskedbyDOTtocomeupwithacommuterrailwaysplantostempassengerlossesandjustifyoperatingsubsidy
Threeoptionswereconsidered:– ‘BigBang’– massivecapitalinjectiontorestoreallinfrastructure– ‘Cuttothebone’– onlykeeplinesthathavecommercialpotential– ‘PriorityRailCorridors’– ranklinesbyfunctionalityvsothermodes
Testingrailfunctionalitycriteriabycorridor
Stakeholderworkshopsevaluatedlinesagainstagreedcriteria:
– National/Provincial/MetroITPPolicies– Currentpatronageandstateduserrequirements– Scopeforoffpeakservices– Scopeforbi-directionaloperationinpeaks– Traveldemandpatterns– allmodes– Spatialandnodalfeaturessupportiveofrail(density)– Infrastructure/topographysuitabilityforrail– Intensityofcompetitionfromothermodesbycorridor– Engineeringfeasibilityofenhancingrail– Operationalfeasibilityofenhancingrail
Corridorrankingbasedonstakeholderratings
OutcomesoftheCommuterRailplan
Mainoutcomehasbeenthehugeinvestmentinmanufactureofnewrollingstockandinfrastructurecurrentlyrollingout
ThefocusofinfrastructureinvestmentonPriorityCorridorsremainsattheheartofPRASA’sstrategy,inprincipleatleast
Butthereport’sconclusionthatanew,morecommerciallybased,operatingmodelwasneededwasnotimplemented
Asaresult,theprogrammeisunresponsivetochangingdemandpatterns;evenwhereneeded,theinvestmentscouldbewasted!
TheCaseforGautrain‘1’
CBAstudybasedontransferofroadtrafficfromN1;+bigeconomicimpactofconstructionandoperationalinvestment
TreasuryandnationalDOTnotconvinced- soinvestmentwasconditionalonintegrationwiththewidertransportnetwork
Hence,‘GautrainIntegrationReports’of2006and,expost,2010
The2006GautrainIntegrationReport
TheinitialissuewashowGautraincouldintegratewithothertransportsystems.Theanswerwasgivenatstrategiclevel:
TheGautrainnetworkfootprintwasshowntobewellalignedwithdensificationtrendsandnodalstructureintheProvince
TheGautraininvestmentwouldcomplementotherinvestments:SARCCRailplan,emergingBRTs,andthefreewaysprogramme
Thescopeforhighdensity,mixedusedevelopmentattransportinterchangeswashighlightedasamajorvalue-addopportunity
The2010GautrainIntegrationReport
AssessedGautrain’sstrategicintegrationrole,asacatalystto:
– Spatialintegrationinsteadofhistoricspatialdisintegration– Higherregionaleconomicgrowth– ‘agglomerationeconomies’– Thepotentialenergizationofthewholepublictransportsector– Transformationofpublicfundinginsupportofpublictransport– Thecreativityofpublicfundingcombinesprivatedeliveryskills
Gautrain’spositiveimpactonthePTmarket?
WhereGautrainisatnow...
Developmentimpactaroundkeynodesiswelldocumented;operationaleffectivenessisevident;usersappreciatevalue-add
Patronagegrowthgoodbutnotasexpectedbecauseforecastswerebasedonassumptionoftolledfreeways,inlinewithNLTA
Bettermeasuresofurbaneconomicimpactneeded,togetherwithimplementationofPTsupportivepoliciessuchasITMP25
Thecasefor‘Gautrain2’dependsonbuildinganewinformedconsensusaroundwhatsortofurbanfutureGautengerswant
Whatdifferentstakeholdersaresayingthattheywantfrompublictransport
Migrationtrendsshowthatpeoplevalueproximitytourbanjobopportunities;subsidisedlongdistancetravelis,atbest,aproxy
Accessibilityresearchshowsthatpeoplevalueavailabilityneartheirhomes,andreliabilityenroute,morethanspeedintransit
Publicpolicytranslatesthisintocommitmentstohigherquality,higherdensity,urbanismwithmorePT-richtransportstrategies
But,asindividuals,weprefertheimmediateaccesswithinlowdensityspatialrealitiesaffordedbycars,e-hailingandevenMBT
Implicationsofstakeholderviews
StopsubsidisinglongestdistancePTcommuting;prioritisethosePTmodestowhichpeoplehaveshowntheywillactuallytransfer
Acceptthatpublicpreferencesforconvenientmobilitywithinlowdensityurbanareasmustcontinuetobebecateredfor
Seektocommunicateinherentcontradictionsbetweendesireforhigherqualityurbanlivinganddemandsforpersonalaccess
Initiateongoing,broad-based,stakeholderconsultationsaroundtheurbanfuturewewantandtheinvestmentchoicesinvolved
Whatparametersweneedtobeabletomeasurebetterinfuture
Toassistthisbroad-basedindaba,transportprofessionalsandacademicresearchneedtoimprovemeasuresofthefollowing:
– Thevalue-addandhencetheproperroleoftransportsubsidisation– Thelongertermimpactsofroadsthatare‘freeatthepointofuse’– Whaturbanfuturepeoplewant- thenatureofthevision– Urbanagglomerationeconomies– thevalueofthevision– Thebesttransportinvestmentmix- torealisethevision– Therelativemeritsofdifferentpublictransportinstitutionalmodels
Thankyou!