the nber working paper series at 20,000 - claudia goldin
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The NBER Working Paper Series at 20,000TRANSCRIPT
Work in Progress: A Retrospective on the NBER
Working Paper Series
Claudia GoldinHarvard University
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150
100
200
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400
500
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800
900
1000
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1200
NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
7 original programsDAE, EFG, ITI, LS, ME, PR, PE; 1978
NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
AG1986
HC1990
AP, CF, IO1991
7 original programsDAE, EFG, ITI, LS, ME, PR, PE; 1978
NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
AG1986
HC1990
AP, CF, IO1991
IFM1993
CH1996
ED2001
POL2006
EEE2007
DEV2012
HE 2001?LE 2002?
> 1,300 RAs & FRFs
7 original programsDAE, EFG, ITI, LS, ME, PR, PE; 1978
NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
17500
20000
22500
f(x) = 0.2307168607484 x³ − 1366.9663170098 x² + 2699906.7576645 x − 1777674912.443R² = 0.999712474856993
NBER Working Papers: Cumulative 1978 to 2013
According to this “model,” the 50,000th NBER Working Paper will appear in January 2030. But will it? Will the “model” change?
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20151.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Mean Number of Programs Fraction with > 1 Program
Mean Number of Programs
Fraction with> 1 program
NBER Programs per Working Paper: 1978 to 2014
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20151.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
NumProg PE PE with progs to 1993
NBER Programs per PE Working Paper: 1978 to 2014
Only programs existing by 1993
The NBER Working Paper series has become less specialized and more varied over time.
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20151.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
Number of Authors
Authors per Working Paper: 1978 to 2014
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20151.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
Number of Authors PE LS EFG
Authors per Working Paper: 1978 to 2014
1 2 3 4 50
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Fraction NBER Authors per Working Paper
by Number of Authors: 2013
Note: Conditional on at least one NBER author per working paper (mean = 60.4%).
Working Papers
Claudia Goldin
Work in Progress: A Retrospective on the NBER
Working Paper Series
Claudia GoldinHarvard University