the nature of science astrology. we will not meet for lab this week. instead, you will start a...
TRANSCRIPT
The Nature of Science
Astrology
We will NOT meet for lab this week.
Instead, you will start a series of Moon observations.
Quotes from Carl Sagan
Human beings have a demonstrated talent for self-deception when their emotions are stirred.
Science is [...] a way of skeptically interrogating the universe with a fine understanding of human fallibility.
(my italics)
Science is the only way of knowing we have, that has a built-in mechanism for making sure we aren’t fooling ourselves.
(paraphrased)
Science is a method, an approach to discovering what is physically true.
Science is a method, an approach to discovering what is physically true.
It is NOT a body of facts to be memorized.
The “facts” of science change as we learn more.
Science is a method, an approach to discovering what is physically true.
It is NOT a body of facts to be memorized.
The “facts” of science change as we learn more.
Example 1:
Gravity – Newton’s law of gravity held for over 300 years
Then in 1915, Albert Einstein introduced a better model, called General Relativity
Science is a method, an approach to discovering what is physically true.
It is NOT a body of facts to be memorized.
The “facts” of science change as we learn more.
Example 2:
Ever since the discovery that the universe is expanding,it was thought that the expansion must be slowing down due to gravity.
Now we have strong evidence for something we never would have considered before the 1990’s: the expansion is speeding up!
Why science?
Science is the only method of figuring out what is truethat has a built-in mechanism for letting us know when we’re wrong.
Science requires a willingness to let go of ideasthat don’t stand up to the evidence.
Scientific thinking is
A. making predictions about future events based on past observations and experiences.
B. a gradual process of learning how the world works.
C. a willingness to give up preconceived notions if those ideas are inconsistent with an experiment or observation.
D. all of the above
Critical!!! And probably not
what youthink!
Occam’s Razor:If the evidence supports two different hypotheses equally well, the simpler hypothesis is more likely to be true.
The Scientific Method
No test will ever prove the hypothesis true
One test can show that the hypothesis is false!
A scientific hypothesis is one for which you can devise a test capable of
proving it FALSE.
You have to try to shoot down your own idea!!
NOTE the repeated
tests!
Also called a “model”
The Scientific MethodAn example of testing a
hypothesis:
The time (in seconds) it takes an object to fall a distance x (in meters) is
given by
(with appropriate units on the constant, of course)
Let’s test it!
Prediction:If x = 1 m, then t = 0.5 s
xt 21
The Scientific MethodIt passed!
Are we done?
NO! Do another test…
Prediction:If x = 3 m, then t = 1.5 s
xt 21
A scientific model
A. is a small physical representation of a real-world system.
B. uses math and logic to describe and predict the behavior of a real-world system.
C. is a scientist who is photographed for advertisements.
D. must be completely accurate or it is considered pseudoscience.
E. B and C
A Different Kind of Example
Hypothesis: Alien spacecraft have visited the Earth
Observational evidence: Numerous eyewitness accounts of UFO sightings
Is this a scientifically valid test?
A Different Kind of Example
Hypothesis: Alien spacecraft have visited the Earth
Observational evidence: Numerous eyewitness accounts of UFO sightings
Is this a scientifically valid test?
No, for several reasons:
1) Eyewitness testimony is known to be very unreliable.
2) It’s not repeatable.
3) It’s not capable of proving a hypothesis false.
If an experiment or observation contradicts a scientific theory, then
A. it must not have been a scientific theory, but pseudoscience.
B. the theory must be revised to account for the new data, or discarded.
C. the theory is still considered correct as long as the vast majority of experiments still agree with the theory.
D. the experiment or observation must be wrong, because a theory cannot be contradicted by any measurement.
What about Astrology?
If astronomy is a science, is astrology also a science?
Problems with astrology:
The Sun isn’t where they say it is when they say it is
Astrology claims: Where the Sun really is:
Problems with astrology:
The Sun isn’t where they say it is when they say it is
Horoscopes are vague at best
Today, an influx of crystal-clarity will free you up to help tackle someone else's problems for a while! People will be looking to you for answers to their problems, and you should be as honest as you can when you give them. This is a time for being totally up front with the people you care about who are going through a rough time. Tell it to
them straight, and you will be doing them a bigger favor than if you sugar coat the truth beyond all recognition.
Problems with astrology:
The Sun isn’t where they say it is when they say it is
Horoscopes are vague at best
Astrologers don’t agree on their predictions
Today, an influx of crystal-clarity will free you up to help tackle someone else's problems for a while! People will be looking to you for answers to their problems, and you should be as honest as you can when you give them. This is a time for being totally up front with the people you care about who are going through a rough time. Tell it to them straight, and you will be doing them a
bigger favor than if you sugar coat the truth beyond all recognition.
Be yourself and you can do no wrong, Libra. This is one of those days when you barely need to make any effort to go a long distance. You'll find power at your disposal and confidence in
yourself. Feel free to grab the microphone and express your opinions. Your words and thoughts are highly charged.
In your past karma and subconscious zone, today’s Solar Eclipse shines a bright light on all of those things that have happened and all of those things that you need to clear up before you move
forward with new things.
Money owed to you is delayed again and you get impatient as you may need the funds for a personal expense. Those in artistic or creative fields are in the limelight and get many a
prestigious project. Make sure they pay well or you could be taken for a ride.
Problems with astrology:
The Sun isn’t where they say it is when they say it is
Horoscopes are vague at best (non-testable)
Astrologers don’t agree on their predictions
When astrology has been tested scientifically,it has failed to show any power of prediction
Michigan State University psychologist looked at the astrological predictions of compatibility in couples, compared to 2978 actual couples who were getting married
and 478 who were getting divorced.
He found no correlation between astrological predictions of compatibility and actual marriage/divorce rates.
Astrologers claim the Sun sign is strongly correlated with choice of profession. John McGervey at Case Western Reserve looked at biographies and birth dates of 6000
politicians and 17,000 scientists.
Birthdates (and hence Sun signs) were randomly distributed in both groups.
Astro-Cash Cab!
Andrew Brown
Conner Cannon
Joe Gonzales
Nick Spencer
Joseph Sanchez
Which of the following is not a hallmark of science?
• A scientific theory is built on logic and common sense to explain observed phenomena.
• Science seeks explanations for observable phenomena using natural causes.
• Science makes progress by testing models that explain observations as simply as possible.
• A scientific model makes testable predictions about natural phenomena and is revised or abandoned if the predictions do not agree with observations.
True or False?
If the evidence does not agree with your hypothesis,it’s ok to change your hypothesis.
Astrology is
• a scientific study of human behavior.• a scientific study of the effects of the Sun and other
celestial objects on the Earth and people.• not a scientific enterprise because scientists have
overwhelmingly voted against it in favor of astronomy.• not a scientific enterprise because it does not make
testable predictions.
What is one of the defining traits of a scientist?
A. Doing experiments or observations to test your ideas.
B. Coming up with new ideas.
C. Being enough of an authority that people will listen to you.
D. Having the right answer.
E. Making predictions about what will happen in the future.