the national weather service · strategic staffing 1 collaborative forecast process 2 gs5-12 career...
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The National Weather Service Evolving to Build a Weather-Ready Nation
Louis W. Uccellini, Ph.D.
Director, National Weather Service
Laura Furgione
Deputy Director, National Weather Service
Nov 1, 2016 – NWS Partner’s Meeting
Silver Spring, Maryland 1
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Impact-Based Decision Support Services
What is IDSS?
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Definition: The provision of relevant information and interpretative
services to enable core partners’ decisions when weather, water, or
climate has a direct impact on the protection of lives and livelihoods.
IDSS connects our
forecasts and
warnings to decision
makers on the local,
state and federal
levels to save lives and
property.
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Why Are We Evolving our Service?
Three Reasons:
Increased Vulnerability – Extreme Climate, Water, and Weather
Events are on the rise and we have Increased Public Vulnerability.
Need /Demand– Our core partners (local, state and federal
agencies) need more actionable information beyond the forecast
to protect the public. (IDSS!)
Mission Fulfilment – The National Weather Service can’t
accomplish the service part of its mission without evolving to
provide IDSS across all our 11 service areas.
NWS Mission: to provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.
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Genesis of Evolve
• 2011 Tornadoes (Alabama, Joplin, MO)
• Two Congressionally directed Academy studies
• Contracted with McKinsey and Company
• Internal and External Engagement
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What Will Evolve Look Like?
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“I want to first fully thank the dedicated professionals here at the National Weather Service for providing us with the most updated forecast briefing this afternoon and for their continued hard work as part of the effort to protect lives and property. Folks here are incredibly professional. We rely on them, and they don't let us down. We tremendously appreciate, especially over the holidays, how they're always there and always helpful, doing the best they can to help law enforcement and others.”
Missouri Governor Jay Nixon following the 2015 December
Holiday storm and January 2016 Flooding
Appreciation for IDSS
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Operations and Workforce Analysis:
Evolve Timeline
Analysis & Idea Development Developed by members of NWS Field Offices and
Headquarters
Recommendation Review & Decisions NWS Senior Leadership committee
Involve, engage and communicate with internal and external stakeholders throughout
FY15
FY17 FY16
FY18-23+
Test & evaluate begins Testing & evaluation of recommendations, including feedback from external partners & field staff
Continued testing & implementation Implementation of OWA recommendations as concepts proven through test and evaluate
Diagnostic OWA diagnostic on baseline and gaps (internal & external)
Ideas & refinement Complete analysis by generating ideas & developing recommendations
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IDSS Concept
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Core partners
“Deep
relationships”
core
partners
• IDSS Definition: The provision of relevant information and interpretative services to
enable core partners’ decisions when weather, water, or climate has a direct impact on the protection of lives and livelihoods
• Success depends on: ‒ IDSS focused on core partners and deep relationships with those partners
‒ Knowing partner key decision points/thresholds and risk preferences
‒ Providing consistent IDSS at national, regional and local levels
Proposed Policy: NWS Partners that receive IDSS are involved in the preparation, dissemination, or discussion involving hazardous weather or other emergency information.
94% of IDSS takes place at the local level
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Field-Driven Proposals
to Unlock Staff Time
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STRATEGIC STAFFING
1
COLLABORATIVE
FORECAST
PROCESS
2
GS5-12
CAREER
PROGRESSION
3
AUTO-
LAUNCHERS
4 SHIFT
SCHEDULING
FLEXIBILITY
5
STAFFING
LEVEL
FLEXIBILITY
6
STRATEGIC
POSITIONING 7
Involve, Engage, and Communicate with Internal and
External Stakeholders Throughout!
2017 Focus
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5 Key Ways Forward
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We are evolving the National Weather Service by:
▪ Better serving partners by enhancing quality and consistency of IDSS at all
levels of the organization, in all current locations because analysis shows
94% of partners are local partners – no office closures
▪ Improving effectiveness of forecasting in support of IDSS through a
collaborative process that makes the best use of technology, reduces
duplication, and ensures consistency of the forecast
▪ Matching workforce to workload across the organization and building a
healthy organizational structure to better meet the needs of NWS partners
▪ Building a workforce the NWS needs to deliver science-based service: both
through enhancing skills today and hiring for tomorrow
▪ Supporting critical science, research, technology and innovation to best meet
the NWS mission
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11 Observations and Numerical Weather Prediction
Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Ready, Responsive, Resilient
3608 WRN Ambassadors
Multi-faceted Communication Strategy
Deep Relationships
Core Partners
NWS Providing Impact-Based
Decision Support Services (IDSS)
Fully-Integrated Field Structure
through a Collaborative Forecast Process
Accurate
& Consistent
Forecasts/Warnings
National Blend of Models: Forecast starting point
One NWS, One Dissemination Network 11
DR
AF
T/P
RE
-DE
CIS
ION
AL
Pulling it all together
to accomplish
our mission
and to
build a Weather-Ready
Nation Social Science
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Questions
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