the national political climate
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The National Political Climate. Presentation by Celinda Lake to the CWA Legislative-Political Conference 2006. Key Points. Opinions of Bush’s agenda and leadership qualities are dropping. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
1000 BroadwaySuite 292
Oakland, California
1726 M Street NWSuite 500
Washington, D.C.
The National Political Climate
Presentation by Celinda Lake
to the CWA Legislative-Political Conference 2006
2
Opinions of Bush’s agenda and leadership qualities are dropping.
In ballot tests, Democrats are at highs not seen since the GOP in 1994 – but voters view the parties as equally distasteful.
While the map and the mood still help incumbents, several have seen their re-elect and job performance drop. Voters want members who will bring checks and balances to Washington.
Voters continue to trust Republicans on terrorism and foreign policy – but by a much reduced margin.
The mood is for change. Voters also respond to arguments about economic security and the cost of corruption.
Key Points
3
A clear majority believe the country is headed down the wrong track
9%
32%60%
Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – 1000 LVs – 2/12-15/06
Wrong Track
Do you think things in this country are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
Right Direction
4
A similar majority of Americans disapprove of the way President Bush
is handling his job
7%
34%59%
CBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1018 adults
DisapproveApprove
Do you approve or disapprove of the way
George W. Bush is handling his job as
President?
5
Voters are divided onBush’s leadership qualities
37% 62%
44% 55%
52% 48%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Is a strong leader
Honest andtrustworthy
Understands peoplelike you
Yes No
Please tell me whether the following statements apply to Bush or not.
ABC News/Washington Post – 3/2-5/06 – 1000 adults
6
Majorities of Americans disapprove of Bush’s performance on key issues
43%
50%
39%
55%
32%
60%
30%
65%
27%
60%
27%
64%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Terrorism Foreign Affairs**
Economy Iraq Energy Health Care **
Approve Disapprove
** Gallup – 2/6-9/06 – 1,002 adultsCBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1,018 adults
7
Iraq and the economy dominate voters’ concerns
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
4%
5%
5%
9%
24%
13%
Iraq war
Economy
Terrorism
Health care
George W. Bush
Defense/Military
Poverty/Homelessness
Domestic issues
Education
Energy crisis
Morality
Political leaders
Budget deficit
What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
CBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1018 adults
8
On their personal top issue, voters trust Democrats over Bush or the GOP Congress
33%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
PresidentBush
Democrats inCongress
33%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
GOPers inCongress
Democrats inCongress
Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll -- 1000 LVs, SPLIT SAMPLE – 2/12-15/06
Thinking about the issue you just mentioned [“number one issue you and your family are concerned about”], who do you think would do a better job solving that problem ___ or the Democrats in Congress?
9
Voters trust Bush on terrorism,but are split on Iraq and taxes
37% 54% 4%4%
44% 46% 5%6%
45% 48% 3%5%
50% 42% 3%6%
51% 39% 5%5%
51% 33% 12% 4%
51% 38% 6%5%
55% 34% 6%5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Strengthening Social Security
Improving education
Holding down federal spending
Improving the economy
Keeping America prosperous
Dealing with Iraq
Holding the line on taxes
Safeguarding America from terrorist
Dems Bush None Unsure
Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or the Democrats in Congress.
Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll -- 1000 LVs, SPLIT SAMPLE – 2/12-15/06
+21
+13
+18
+12
+8
-3
-2
-17
DEM-REP
10
Voters are split on who shares their values and who has the right priorities
40% 30% 22% 8%
42% 44% 8% 5%
46% 40% 9% 4%
55% 35% 7%3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
For the middle class
Setting the right priorities
Shares your values
Cracking down oncorruption in Washington
Dems GOP None Unsure
Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job on this issue or better represents this quality: the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress.
Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – 1000 LVs – 2/12-15/06
+20
+6
-2
+10
DEM-REP
11
Congressional Democrats and Republicans are similarly distasteful to voters
27 19-20-25
26 18-18-30
15 30-10-43
20 22-12-39
-65 -45 -25 -5 15 35 55
Dick Cheney
George W. Bush
Republicans inCongress
Democrats inCongress
Smw fav
Str fav
Smw unf
Str unf
Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – 1000 LVs – 2/12-15/06
For each one, please tell me if you have heard of that person or organization, and if so, whether you have a favorable of unfavorable impression of that person or organization. [Is that somewhat or strongly?]
-9
-8
-4
-1
42
45
44
46
51
53
48
45
12
Voters overwhelmingly blame both parties for Washington corruption
20%11%
64%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Republican Party Democratic Party Both
Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – 1000 LVs – 2/12-15/06
Which party –the Republican Party or the Democratic Party or both parties equally – do you think is most responsible for the current problems facing Congress on the issues of lobbying reform and Congressional reform?
13
While voters are unhappy with Congress, they approve of their member
9%
28%
18%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Approve Disapprove
31%
31%
9%
16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Approve Disapprove
“YOUR MEMBER OF CONGRESS”CONGRESS
Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – 1000 LVs – 2/12-15/06
63%
25%
37%
56%-19 +38
14
Nationally, Americans plan on voting for the Democratic candidate by a 14-point margin
7%
53%
39%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup – 1020 RVs – 2/28-3/1/06
Republican
If the election were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you vote for the Republican candidate in your district or the Democratic candidate in your
district?
Democrat
+14Democrat
Largest advantage for an opposition
party since the GOP in early 1994. [Gallup]
15
In contested House districts, the generic Democrat is favored by 4 points
41%
45%
14%
Republican
If the election were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you vote for the Republican candidate in your district or the Democratic candidate in your
district?
Democrat
Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – n=241 – 2/12-15/06
Undecided
+4Democrat
16
The most competitive Senate races are in all regions of the country
Casey, Jr. – 50Casey, Jr. – 50Santorum* – 40Santorum* – 40
1/25/061/25/06
McCaskill – 47McCaskill – 47Talent* – 44Talent* – 44
1/16/061/16/06
Cardin – 41Cardin – 41Steele – 32Steele – 32
11/1/0511/1/05
Menendez – 42Menendez – 42Kean, Jr. – 37Kean, Jr. – 37
3/9/063/9/06
Morrison – 50Morrison – 50Burns* – 43Burns* – 43
2/7/062/7/06
Brown - 37Brown - 37DeWine* – 46DeWine* – 46
12/4/0512/4/05
Klobuchar – 45Klobuchar – 45Kennedy – 42Kennedy – 42
2/20/062/20/06
Brown – 36Brown – 36Chafee* – 38Chafee* – 38
2/6/062/6/06
Ten most competitive U.S. Senate races, as chosen by Ten most competitive U.S. Senate races, as chosen by The Hotline.The Hotline.Survey qualities vary. Candidates determined by primary leaders.Survey qualities vary. Candidates determined by primary leaders.
Asterisk denotes incumbents. Asterisk denotes incumbents.
Cantwell* – 50Cantwell* – 50McGavick – 39McGavick – 39
Ford, Jr. – 38Ford, Jr. – 38Bryant – 37Bryant – 37
10/20/0510/20/052/16/062/16/06
OPEN (Corzine)OPEN (Corzine)
OPEN (Sarbanes)OPEN (Sarbanes)
OPEN (Frist)OPEN (Frist)
OPEN (Dayton)OPEN (Dayton)
1000 BroadwaySuite 292
Oakland, California
1726 M Street NWSuite 500
Washington, D.C.
Key IssuesIraq
The Economy
Medicare
Minimum Wage
18
Americans are pessimistic about Iraq – their #1 issue
41%
5%
54%
Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or
should the U.S. have stayed out?
How would you say things are going for the U.S. in its efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq?
5%
31%30%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Well BadlyCBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1018 adults
36%
62%Stayed Out
Right Thing
-26
19
Voters do not support an immediate withdrawal of all troops from Iraq
27%3%
38%
9%
23%
Which comes closest to your view about what the U.S.
should do now about the number of U.S. troops in Iraq?
Withdrawall
Withdrawsome
Keep as now
More
CBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1018 adults
20
Voters do not believe either partyhas a plan for Iraq
34%
65%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Does Does not
24%
70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Do Do not
Do you think the BUSH ADMINISTRATION does or does not have a clear plan for
handling the situation in Iraq?
ABC News/Washington Post – 3/2-5/06 – 1000 adults
Do you think the DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS do or do not have a clear plan
for handling the situation in Iraq?
21
Americans remain pessimistic about the economy
41%
59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Excellent/good Not good/poor* Darker colors show intensity
Would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
ABC News/Washington Post, Jan.29, 1,000 adults, MOE +/-3%
22
Voters tend to be pessimistic about their children’s standard of living in the future
Thinking about the economy and standard of living, do you think your children will be better off, worse off, or about the same as you when they are your age now. Well what would you imagine it will be like for today’s children?
18%
52%
26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Better Off Worse Off About the Same
“The economy frustrates me. I have two teenaged sons at home. My dad used to beat
me over the head you know to go to college or you’re finished, go to college or you’re
finished. I didn’t listen to my dad, I didn’t finish college. He was right. For my sons, it’s
even more dramatically true.” OH Man
Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – 1000 LVs – 10/9-12/05
23
The more seniors learn about Medicare Part D, the less they like it
Democracy Corps – 1/25-30/06 – 1,000 likely voters
As you know, there is now a new prescription drug benefit under Medicare for seniors. How do you rate the program – mostly positively or mostly negatively?
24
Minimum wage ballot initiatives won big in 2004
Yes71%
No29% Yes
68%
No32%
FLORIDA NEVADA
Bush: 52 / Kerry: 47 Bush: 50 / Kerry: 48
25
The minimum wage is a winning issue within both parties
Florida
Democrats Republicans
% Yes 89% 57%
% No 10% 36%
Nevada
% Yes 92% 53%
% No 5% 43%
After I read each one, please tell me if you voted yes, in favor of the initiative, or no, against the initiative, or did you not vote on this initiative?
Lake Snell Perry/ACORN/BISC – November 2004
26
Minimum wage initiatives do not provoke a backlash
In Florida, 23 percent of strong Democrats – but only 11 percent of strong Republicans – were motivated by a living wage ballot measure.
In Nevada, 36 percent of strong Democrats – but only 7 percent of strong Republicans – were motivated by a living wage ballot measure.
27
Strong Minimum Wage Themes
No one who works full-time should live in poverty.
Minimum wage workers make only $206 a week, many of them parents and adults trying to raise children and make ends meet.
Raising the minimum wage shows that we value hard work over welfare and will save taxpayers money.
Personal stories are a powerful way to contextualize this issue and relate it to values of hard work and family.
A populist theme juxtaposing the minimum wage with CEO salaries is also strong with base voters.
1000 BroadwaySuite 292
Oakland, California
1726 M Street NWSuite 500
Washington, D.C.
The National Political Climate
Presentation by Celinda Lake
to the CWA Legislative-Political Conference 2006