The National Climate AssessmentOverview of Status and Progress

NCADACAugust 16, 2011

Katharine JacobsOffice of Science and Technology Policy

http://assessment.globalchange.gov

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NCADAC Executive Secretariat• Jerry Melillo, Chair

Marine Biological Laboratory

• Terese Richmond, Vice-ChairGordon Derr, LLP

• Gary Yohe, Vice-ChairWesleyan University

• James Buizer Arizona State University

• David GustafsonMonsanto Company

• Sharon HaysComputer Sciences Corporation

• Thomas KarlSubcommittee on Global Change Research

• Jo-Ann LeongHawaii Institute of Marine Biology and Oregon State University

• Susanne MoserSusanne Moser Research & Consulting and Stanford University

• Richard MossUniversity of Maryland and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

• Lindene PattonZurich Financial Services

• Andrew RosenbergUniversity of New Hampshire, Conservation International

• Donald Wuebbles University of Illinois

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NCADAC Working Groups• Scenarios and Regional Summaries (Moss)• Request for Information (Patton, Fleming)• Peer Review, Information Standards, and Access (Richmond, Hays) • Engagement, Communication, and Evaluation (Maibach, Moser)• Regional Coordination (Yohe, Carter)• Sectoral Coordination (Buizer, Gade)• Science of Climate Change (Karl, Wuebbles)• Agenda for Climate Change Science (Janetos, Liverman)• Adaptation and Mitigation (Bierbaum, Lee, Smith)• Indicators Development and Evaluation (Janetos and ?)• International (Hales)• Long Term Process (?)

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NCA Goal and Vision (Working Group 1)

• The overarching goal is to enhance the ability of the United States to anticipate, mitigate and adapt to changes in the global environment.

• The vision is to advance an inclusive, broad-based, and sustained process for assessing and communicating scientific knowledge of the impacts, risks and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate in support of decision-making across the United States.

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Strategic Plan (Working Group 1)

• Sustainable process with multiple products over time• New topics, cross-sectoral studies• Consistent national matrix of indicators• Central coordination, multiple partners• Regional and sectoral networks building assessment capacity• Recognizes international context• Engagement and communications focus• Web-based data and tools for decision support• Process workshops to establish methodologies

Initiate “topical” and assessmentprocess reports that will be completed at a defined date post 2013.

Full draft of report available for public and expert review.

Sectors

Cross-cutting topics

Regions

2013

2014

2017

20122011

The Continuing NCA Process (WG 1)

Full assessment reports

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Regional and sectoral assessments and stakeholder engagement

Technical Input Reports due March 1, 2012

Expressions of Interest Due October 1, 2011

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Highlights of Outline for 2013 Report

• The scientific basis for climate change• Sectors and sectoral cross-cuts• Regions and biogeographical cross-cuts• Mitigation and adaptation• Agenda for climate change science• The NCA long-term process

Working Group 1: For Regions and Sectors, start with the 2009 document and focus on what’s new

“The Art of the Possible”

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Regional Teams Now Established (Regions WG)

Region Lead Agency Lead Contact NCADAC Liaison

Northeast NOAA Rosenzweig Yohe

Southeast +Caribbean

NOAA Ingram, Carter, Dow, Brown

Carter

Midwest NOAA, USDA Hatfield, Scavia Pryor

Great Plains DOI, NOAA Kluck, Brown, Shafer Posey

Southwest DOI, NOAA Overpeck, Garfin Liverman

Northwest DOI, NOAA Mote MoteAlaska + Arctic DOI, NOAA Holland-Bartels, Partain,

TrainorChapin

Hawaii + Pacific Islands

DOI, NOAA Marra, Spooner Leong

First Regional Meeting in SW – Aug 2-4, 2011

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Regions

Northeast

Southeast and Caribbean

Midwest

Great Plains

Northwest

Southwest

Alaska and Arctic

Hawaii and Pacific Islands

+ Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands

+ Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa and other minor outlying islands

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Biogeographical Cross-Cuts• Oceans and marine resources (Team has formed, led by

Rosenberg and Armbrust; NOAA is lead agency)• Coastal zone, development, and ecosystems, with case studies

including– SF Bay Delta– Chesapeake– Gulf Coast

• Drainage basins (WATERSHEDS?), with case studies including– Great Lakes– Colorado River– Columbia River Watersheds may be handled as “nested

assessments within Regional teams,” e.g., Colorado in SW, Columbia in NW

First Biogeographical X-Cut meeting Colorado River Evaluation of Assessment CapacityJune 6-7, 2011

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Sector Teams Established (Sectors WG)Sector Lead Agency Lead Contact NCADAC LiaisonWater Resources USACE, USGS Bales, Pietrowsky Georgakakos, FlemingEnergy Supply and Use

DOE Vallario Franco, Dell

Transportation DOT Rypinski SchwartzAgriculture USDA Walthall GustafsonForestry USFS Vose, Peterson MelilloEcosystems and Biodiversity

USGS Carter Kareiva

Human Health HHS Balbus, Trtanj McGeehin, Luber

First Sectoral Assessment meetingForestry Sector, July 11-14, 2011

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Cross-Sector Teams (Sectors WG)Cross-Sector Lead Agency Lead Contact NCADAC LiaisonWater, Energy, Land DOE Vallario JanetosUrban, Infrastructure, Vulnerabilities

DOE, NOAA Vallario, Rosenzweig Fleming

Tribal Land and Resources

NASA, NOAA Maynard, Kluck Bennett

Land Use and Land Cover Change

USFS, USGS Loveland, Patel-Weynand

Rural Communities, Ag., Development

USDA Walsh Hales

Impacts on Biogeochmeical Cycles

DOE, USDA Kuperberg, Olson Melillo

First X-Sectoral Team meetings,Water-Energy-Land 7-13-11Urban-Infrastructure-Vulnerability 7-20-11

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Other WG Milestones

• RFI – Issued July 13, 2011• Scenarios and Regional Summaries – First presentations,

SW Regional Assessment Meeting, Aug 2-3• Global Change Information Portal – Approval of initial

governance proposal and establishment of Project Manager (Anne Waple) at USGCRP Principals meeting Aug 11

• Engagement / Communication / Evaluation – developed preliminary logic model to guide evaluation, preliminary implementation plan for communications underway

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Communicating about NCA• Presentations about the NCA

– 8 Listening Sessions at professional society meetings– 20 Workshops (process, regional, sectoral)– 20+ Informational Briefings (agencies, Congressional staff,

NGOs, invited keynotes, etc.)

• Presentation materials– Two-page “Introduction to the National Climate Assessment”– Standard informational presentation on the NCA

• Website (initial website running, revisions underway)• Newsletter distributed every 6 weeks (+) via email to

2600+ people

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Strategic Planning

• “Sustained Assessments” is one of four goals in the draft USGCRP strategic plan for the next ten years; draft to be released to the public within a month or so. Developing this draft has been a major effort involving a writing team of 60 people; Fred Lipschultz has been representing the Assessment.

• “Build and Sustain Assessments” is proposed as one of five FY 13 USGCRP Priorities; a template showing programs that are critical to protect in light of budget cutting exercises is being developed.

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Process Workshops1. Midwest Regional Workshop2. Strategic Planning3. Outline and Workplan4. International Context5. Communications6. Knowledge Management7. Regional and Sectoral Approach8. Ecological Indicators (coming soon)9. Scenarios (coming soon)10. Modeling (coming soon)11. Valuation (coming soon)12. Vulnerability Assessment13. Physical Indicators (coming soon)14. Societal Indicators (coming soon)

Blue = Report availableBlack = Summary available (no formal report)

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Outcomes of the NCA(Engagement, Communication, and Evaluation WG)

• Ongoing, relevant analysis of scientific understanding of climate change impacts, risk, and vulnerability

• Enhanced timely access to Assessment-related data from multiple sources

• Systematic evaluation of progress towards reducing risk, vulnerability, and impacts

• A sustained process for informing an integrated research program

• Evaluation of the implications of alternative adaptation and mitigation policy options

• Information that provides the foundation for a science-based national discourse on climate change

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NCA StaffOSTP and USGCRP / Washington, DC• Katharine Jacobs

NCA Director, OSTP• Sheila O’Brien*

Chief of Staff• Emily Therese Cloyd*

Public Participation and Engagement Coordinator• Bryce Golden-Chen*

Program Administrator• Ralph Cantral

Sectoral Coordinator (NOAA detailee)• Fred Lipschultz

Regional Coordinator (NASA detailee)• Bill Emanuel

Senior Scientist (DOE detailee)• Nancy Grimm

Senior Scientist (NSF detailee)• Julie Maldonado*

Engagement Assistant• Melissa Kenney

AAAS Fellow, NOAA

• Chelsea Combest-FriedmanKnauss Fellow, NOAA

• Chelcy Ford Scientist (USFS detailee)

NOAA NCDC / Asheville, NC• Anne Waple

NOAA Assessments Manager• Ken Kunkel

Science Lead for Assessments• Brooke Stewart

Assessments Services Scientific Coordinator• John Keck

Technical Lead• Doreen DiCarlo

Program Coordinator• Julie Moore

Administrative Support

NOAA / Washington, DC and Silver Spring, MD• Cynthia Decker

NCADAC Designated Federal Official• Kandis Wyatt

NCADAC Designated Federal Official (Alternate)• Stephanie Herring

NOAA Liaison to the National Climate Assessment

* = UCAR STAFF

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August-October ScheduleDate & Location Event NCA Staff NCADAC Member

August 18Lakewood, CO

NCA Regional Team Organizing Meeting: Great Plains

Lipschultz

August 23-25Keshena, WI

Great Lakes Tribal Climate Change Summit

Cantral Bennett, Wuebbles

September 4-8Seattle, WA

American Fisheries Society Grimm

September 12Anchorage, AK

NCA Regional Team Organizing Meeting: Alaska

Lipschultz Chapin

September 12-14Ann Arbor, MI

Great Lakes Coastal Habitat Conservation Workshop

Cloyd

September 13-14Seattle, WA

NCA Regional Team Organizing Meeting: Pacific Northwest

Lipschultz Mote

September 26Chicago, IL

Enhancing Decision Making (ACCO, USGCRP)

Cloyd

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August-October ScheduleDate & Location Event NCA Staff NCADAC Member

September 29-30Atlanta, GA

NCA Regional Team Organizing Meeting: Southeast

Kunkel Carter

October 4Alexandria, VA

NASA Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop

Emanuel, Cloyd, Lipschultz

October 16-19San Antonio, TX

ASA-CCSA-SSSA, Soil, Crop, and Enviro Sci Meeting

October 27Denver, CO

WCRP Open Meeting with proposed USGCRP Town Hall

Oct 29 – Nov 2Washington, DC

American Public Health Association

Oct 31 – Nov 2Washington DC

2011 GreenGov Symposium (CEQ and ACCO)

Jacobs

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Questions???