the national annual policy dialogue
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The National Annual Policy Dialogue. Commentary on MKUKUTA/MKUZA By Poverty Monitoring Group 2 December, 2010 Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Messages coming out of three recent reports. MAIR: Relatively high growth, stable macro-economy, improvements in education and health fronts, - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The National Annual Policy Dialogue
Commentary on MKUKUTA/MKUZABy
Poverty Monitoring Group
2 December, 2010Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
Messages coming out of three recent reports
• MAIR: Relatively high growth, stable macro-economy, improvements in education and health fronts,
Key poverty and hunger targets not met (rural poverty 37.6%
(HBS), 40% (NPS)), (Zbr: pov 51%)
• NPS: Wide disparities in employment and income,• HDR: High multidimensional poverty,
• The Question: Are we trapping people in poverty?Annual National Policy Dialogue 2010
MAIR: Some Good Fundamentals but Challenges Remain
• Relatively high growth, and stable macro-economy, but – Growth has not been broad based,– High growth and macro stability at the expense of the poor?
• Improvements in education and health fronts, but– Deteriorating quality of education,
• High pupil/teacher ratio (54:1 in 2009)• Low passing rate at the primary school leaving certificate (52.7% in
2008)– Risk of losing ground in recent gains in some areas
• Enrolment (NPS) and wasted children (DHS), maternal mortality in Zbr
Annual National Policy Dialogue 2010
MAIR: Key poverty and hunger targets not met
Rural poverty at 37.6% (HBS), 40% (NPS)• Agricultural growth at 3.9 Per cent during 2005-2009. Can we blame the weather?
– Still limited access to agricultural inputs
– Half of farmers do not benefit from the fertilizer subsidy- no access to alternative credit either– Area under irrigation only 0.3mn ha (target :1.0mn ha)– Access to markets quite a challenge– Limited value addition
Rural hunger at 18.4% (HBS) 20.4% (NPS)
• Improved food availability (SSR =112) but food shortages in 46.9 districts (MKUKUTA target : 7)– Food distribution seem to be an issue
Some Improvements in Infant and child malnutrition (stunted 38→35, wasted 3 → 4, and underweight 22→21, DHS 2010)
Annual National Policy Dialogue 2010
Supply Demand
Fertilizer 61.8% 11.6%
Seeds 36.8% 19.5%
Wide disparities in Employment –Rural Tanzania
• No structural transformation within agriculture during the past two decades
• A reflection of limited opportunities elsewhere?
• Got trapped in agriculture?
Annual National Policy Dialogue 2010
Wide disparities in Employment - Dar and other urban
Annual National Policy Dialogue 2010
Wide disparities in Earnings
Annual National Policy Dialogue 2010
7587
98
7550
142
7557
170
160104
230
0 50 100 150 200 250Nominal TSh in '000s
Zanzibar
Rural
Other Urban
DSM
Median monthly earningsPublic Sector Private Sector Self-Employed
Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) -Composition
Annual National Policy Dialogue 2010
High Multidimensional PovertySummary Statistics
Multidimensional Poverty Index 0.367
Percentage of MPI Poor 0.653
Average Intensity of Deprivation 0.563
Number of MPI Poor (million) 27.0
Percentage of Income Poor ($1.25 a day)
89%
Percentage of Income Poor ($2.00 a day)
97%
Percentage of Income Poor (National Poverty Line)
34%
Annual National Policy Dialogue 2010
MPI(H) National Poverty Line
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70% 65%
34%
Comparative poverty measures
Poverty Measure
Proportion
Tanzania’s relative standing in MPI
Annual National Policy Dialogue 2010
Niger
Mali
Burundi
Burkina F
aso
Sierra
Leone
Somalia
Angola
DRCBen
in
Senega
lNep
al
Nigeria
Maurita
nia
Gambia
Haiti
Camero
onTo
goYem
en
Sao To
m'e
Lesotho
Swazi
land
Namibia
Bolvia
Honduras
Djbouti
Guatemala
Tajisk
istan
Viet Nam
Mynmar
Paragu
ayChina
Surin
ame
Syria
Arab
Kyrgyzs
tan
Uzbekista
n
Thaila
nd0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Headcounts of MPI poorPercentage of Poor
Incidence of Deprivation in Each of the MPI Indicator
Rural-urban gap, many deprived of basic necessities
Annual National Policy Dialogue 2010
Decomposition of MPI
Hefty gains from reducing child mortality
Annual National Policy Dialogue 2010
The underlying reasons and the way forward
• Lack of prioritization and proper sequencing and therefore the strategy has not been pro-poor / inclusive
• Ineffective implementation of policies and strategies
• And the need to translate MUKUTA II /MKUZA II strategies to concrete policies and actions and implement and monitor them more effectively to achieve the desired goals.
Thank you
Annual National Policy Dialogue 2010