This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. © 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Bryan Taylor

Research Director

Enterprise Mobility

The Mobile Scenario: Understanding Mobile Trends & Directions Through 2017

Mobility Matures

1

Mobile strategy

Enterprise standards

Solution focus

2015

2010

CIO

CDO CMO

Multichannel strategy Enterprise &

ecosystem focus

Integration with other products and services

Innovation focus - new products, services,

relationships

Consumerisation, BYO

Notebooks, smartphones,

tablets

Notebooks, smartphones, tablets, hybrids, consumer electronics, smart devices,

peripherals.....

CIO

CMO

Strategy: 2013 Global CIO Top 10 Technologies

CIO Technologies

Ranking 2012 2011 2010 2009

Ranking of technologies CIOs selected as one of their top five priorities in 2013.

* Not an option in that year

2013

Analytics and business intelligence 1 1 5 5 1

Mobile technologies 2 2 3 6 12

Cloud computing (SaaS, IaaS, PaaS) 3 3 1 2 16

Collaboration technologies (workflow) 4 4 8 11 5

Legacy modernization 5 6 7 15 4

IT management 6 7 4 10 *

CRM 7 8 18 * *

Virtualization 8 5 2 1 3

Security 9 10 12 9 8

ERP applications 10 9 13 14 2

2

Key Issues

1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology, and market trends through 2017?

2. How will corporations choose and use mobile technology, services and tools to support customers and employees?

The Changing Device Mix

4

Installed Base in NA and WE

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2013 2016

Smartphones

PCs

Tablets

38%

24%

38%

1B 1.4B 1.7B

Small form factor with apps and browser

55% mobile: notebook and ultra-mobile

Mid to Large screen touch device

Tablets Bust Out

5

Tablet Installed Base – North America and Western Europe

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 2013 2016

iOS

Android

Windows

63%

27%

9%

Mill

ions Insta

lled

Over 80% of iPads in the workplace are BYO

$100 Consumer Tablets in 2014

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2013 2016

Symbian

Other

BlackBerry

Windows

iOS/MacOS

Android

Smartphone Installed Base

6

Pre

dic

ted insta

lled b

ase in N

A a

nd W

E (

M)

Smartphones will be 52% total global handset shipments

Smartphones will be 78% total global handset shipments

Android

Windows

iOS

US: 2/3 of 18-24 year olds and 2/3 of households earning $75K have a smartphone in 2012

$50 Smartphones in 2014

New categories: Tablets and Ultramobiles

7

0 m

100 m

200 m

300 m

400 m

500 m

600 m

700 m

2013 2014 2015 2016

Low end tablets

Predicted mobile PC and tablet shipments 2013 to 2016, worldwide Ultramobiles

Notebooks

Premium tablets

Mobile Technology Trends 2013 and 2014

8

• More form factors: 27" tablets, 4K tablets, "phablets"

• Windows 8 and touch ultrabooks blur tablets & PCs

• "Smartphone" and "feature phone" distinctions blur

• 8 Core asymmetric processors

• "Haswell" gives Intel a more competitive chipset

• Curved screens & flexible OLED screens emerge slowly

• OS evolution continues at a high rate on all platforms

• Android will have the widest price and performance

range, $40 - $50 smartphones in 2014

• User interfaces get more sophisticated

• NFC grows, but m-payment struggles

Apple

Mobile HTML5 A Work In Progress

Immature and fragmented collection of different standards HTML, CSS, JavaScript...

Multiple standards bodies W3C, ECMA, IETF, "Living standard" with W3C/WHATWG separation....

Multiple inconsistent implementations e.g., offline storage

Security challenges New vulnerabilities, risks

not yet well understood

Hardware variations 10:1 performance range

in mobile devices

HTML5

Strong vendor support Apple, Google, Microsoft, Opera....

Valuable new features Geolocation, graphics,

better user experience, hybrid apps, media,

offline operation.

Commercial opportunities Avoids app store "taxes"

Incomplete solution e.g., no alerts

Vendor attitudes "native is best" versus aggressive HTML evolution

Key Wireless Network Technologies

10Gbps

1Gbps

100Mbps

10Mbps

1Mbps

100Kbps

Adjacent Room Campus National International

BGAN

LTE-A

LTE

802.11ac

802.11ad

802.11n

Bluetooth 2.1

ZigBee

DASH-7

NFC

802.15.6 (UWB)

Bluetooth LE

HSPA+

This diagram shows approximate theoretical peak speeds that will not be achieved under real-world conditions

Future

Current

Log

Scale

802.15.6 (HBC)

802.15.6

WAUN (Japan) 802.11ah

Mobile Battlegrounds: Payment, Media, Social, LBS, Context, Advertising ...

Footfall (traffic) for advertising

Generate revenue

Drive new technology

Context and behavioral info

Innovate apps/services

Community stickiness

..........

Apple

Mobile Apps Will Become More Sophisticated and More Complex

Increasing sophistication

Context, gamification, indoor location, augmented reality....

Improvements in quality

Customers will become less tolerant of bugs and poor support

Cloud & partners

For context, payment, marketing, navigation, location, social....

Better user experiences

Cosmetic design, psychology and motivation, usability

Multichannel integration

Mobile becomes part of a broad multichannel strategy

External integration

Peripherals, ensemble interactions, links to consumer electronics

Better user experiences

Multichannel integration

External integration

Increasing sophistication

Improving quality

Cloud partners

A Mobile App for Every Thing

13

• Increasing integration with a

wide range of smart,

networked consumer

electronics via mobile apps

• Synergy between mobility

and the internet of things

• Crowd funding and

development driving

product innovation, e,g.

Kickstarter

• Key innovation areas

include automotive,

consumer electronics, toys,

healthcare

• Key architecture: Smart

device + mobile + cloud

• The handset becomes the

hub of the personal / body

area network

A Radical Shift is Occuring

14

Source: Hunting and Harvesting in a Digital World: The 2013 CIO Agenda, Jan 1 2013

n=2053 CIOs, worldwide

8%

46%

63%

Today 20202016

Many Are Shifting to Mobile and Laptop Only

“When will your organization move

to mobile and laptop only?”

Desktops + Mobile

Mobile Only

Mobility Impacts Every Aspect of Your Business

15

Run

Grow

Transform

Consumer facing Employee facing

E.g. new mobile technologies, devices and interactions, mobile + internet of things, M2M, ...

E.g. multichannel integration, mobile commerce, mobile marketing, ...

Hygiene apps, e.g. m-banking, SMS notifications, ...

E.g. role specific solutions such as SFA, FFA, logistics,

mobile social networking

E.g. wireless office, cellular connectivity, mobile email,

cloud document sharing

E.g. process re-engineering using innovative apps, new ownership models such as

BYOD, BYOA

Tactics are the New Strategy

Demand What must we deliver?

Supply Tools, techniques,

sourcing, skills

Risk Management Suppliers, apps, ...

Governance

• Application architectures and tools

• Multiplatform applications

• Multiple mobile strategies, B2C, B2E

• New AD tools portfolio

• New methods and processes

• Skills

• New sourcing relationships

• Agility is essential

• New sourcing partners

• New app principles, e.g. context

• Management and security

• Build innovation into the strategy

• New approaches to security

Mo

bile

Imp

act

on

IT S

trate

gy

2 Year Tactical Plan

3 Year Strategic Plan

BYOD

A(nother) Radical Shift is Occuring

18

Source: Hunting and Harvesting in a Digital World: The 2013 CIO Agenda, Jan 1 2013

* Gartner analyst estimates

“When will your organization

cease to provide personal devices?”

6%

38%

Today 20202016

And Many Organizations Will Not Provide Devices

45%

15%NO BYOD*

ALL BYOD

MIXED

40%

n=2053 worldwide

BYO: The Trend Is Clear

• Over 60% of employees report using a personal

device for work

• US and APAC lead, EU lags

19

• 2/3 of consumers report that work influences what they buy

for personal devices

• PC BYOD Lags Smartphones and Tablets (<8% of companies), but will accelerate in 2014+

One Common Situation Where BYO Saves Money: Blackberry Replacement

• Messaging and calendar only

• Partial reimbursement / stipend

• Domestic US users

• Limited international travel

Before After

$1M

$1.08M over 2 Years

$300K savings in 2 years

$90/mo/user

$50/mo/user service fee

(may decrease w/time)

$15/mo/user software and related costs

(likely to increase w/ time)

$780K

Your situation may be different!

$65/mo/user

But There Is More Here Than Cost Savings.

• Increasing employee satisfaction via opt-in programs. Attracting and retaining staff.

• Expanding the number of mobile users – and the mobile app opportunity

• Offloading the management of non-strategic devices from IT

• Adopting technology at the speed of consumer markets

21

The Gotchas

• Hosted Virtual Desktop costs

• Licensing costs

• International usage fees

• The surprise $10,000 bill

• Taxes in some countries

• E-discovery issues

• Employee privacy implications

• After-hours labor implications

• Difficulty of FORCING users into the program

• How do you drive future upgrades?

22

Key Components of a BYO Program

Scope and eligibility

Access to corporate apps/resources

Security and privacy

Ownership, re-imbursement

Tools and technologies

Support

Policy and enforcement

Platform selection

BYO isn't guaranteed to save money

Stipends need an exception mechanism

You can't address BYOD without addressing BYOA

You can't force users to upgrade when it suits you

Endpoint independence

Software licensing

Mobile Security: Many Threats, Many Solutions, Many Compromises

24

MDM - Manage the device

Containerisation - Manage the app

App wrapping

Managed zones

Virtualisation

Thin - Trust nothing

Trusted devices - few options

..........

Selected Technology Approaches What does the user want?

• Mix trusted and untrusted apps on

the same device

• Minimise disruption to personal apps,

behaviour, and use cases

• Support a wide range of devices

• Don't compromise usability of device

or applications

• Corporate management won't destroy

personal information

Plan for many forms of "Mobile Work"

25

Formal

Informal

Corporate-supplied and supported

device & process for specific job role e.g. Sales force automation iPad

Formal BYO program for senior execs

and knowledge workers to replace

company-supplied devices e.g. BYO laptops and tablets

Employee-owned device as laptop

adjunct but with corporate sanction for

selected tasks, e.g. email, documents e.g. knowledge worker's personal iPad

"Under the radar" employee-owned

device without corporate support or

awareness e.g. employee's personal tablet or

smartphone

Segment employees into multiple categories and mobile

management regimes

Supporting BYO & Consumer Devices

• Design apps for supportability

• Adopt supportable architectures

• Choose devices / platforms that are easy to support

• Provide community resources

• Educate users

• Suggest or fund external resources

• Address legal, HR, insurance issues

• Define a contingency plan

• Address issues such as backup in policy agreements

• Manage liability, e.g. with timeboxing

Make apps and devices more supportable

Enable self-support

Manage risk

Policy Goals: Common Sense Enforcement • Who qualifies?

• What devices are allowed?

• Who buys/owns the device?

• What service expenses will be covered, and how?

• What is supported, at what level?

• What does the employee have to do?

• Enterprise security, data usage and privacy restrictions

• Employee privacy issues

• Labor implications of after-hours support

• Liability issues (E-discovery)

• Limitations on reimbursement

• Penalties for noncompliance

• Data and phone number transition at termination

Support policies and

liability issues must be

reviewed by the corporate

legal department, the

executive board, HR and

business unit managers.

Use Gartner’s BYOD Mobile Device Policy Template (G00233049)

Devices: Set Appropriate Policies

All Devices

• Minimum device level: iPhone 3GS+, iOS 5.0x, Android 3.x

• Company-administered MDM

• Pass code length, retry, timeout policy

• No jailbreak/no rooting policy

• Certificates for any and all access: email, apps, networks

• Application encryption and cleanup for sensitive data

Personal Devices

• Limit device enrollments at company discretion

• Filter sensitive data at company discretion

• Accept company lock/wipe decisions

• Require end-user acceptable-use policy agreement

Update every 6 months

Key Mobile Delivery/Security Technologies

• MobileIron

• AirWatch

• Fiberlink

• Citrix XenMobile

• Boxtone

• SAP

• IBM

• Antenna Software

• SAP

• IBM

Application

Delivery

Application

Development

Device

Management

and Security

Application

Management

and Security Mobile Device Management*

Native Development

Web Development

Mobile Enterprise Application Platforms*

Mobile Consumer Application Platforms* • Kony

Sample Vendors

*Gartner Magic Quadrants are available

Enterprise File Synchronization and

Sharing* Collaboration

• Citrix XenApp/XenDesktop

• VMWare Horizon View Virtual Desktop

Accellion, Box, Citrix Sharefile

Containerization, DLP, App Encryption Data

Protections

Good, Mocana, Citrix Mobile

Solutions, Excitor, Symantec,

AirWatch, AppSense

• Sencha

• Appcelerator

• Verivo

• Adobe

• Good Technology

• Symantec

Conclusions: Tactics to Gain Control • Segment users, define multiple management regimes

One size of management won't fit everyone

• Regularly publish minimum specifications

What does an employee need this year?

• Consumerisation must be a win-win bargain

Everyone gives something, everyone gets something

• Work with the users - define SLAs, policies, expectations

Some employees may be happy with the status quo

• Explore new technological solutions

E.g. HVD, sandboxed email, DRM, multiplatform MDM-Lite.......

• Revisit application architectures & tools

Thinner = lower cost and more device neutral

• Stay tactical & flexible

New devices, apps, opportunities and challenges will emerge

regularly. Continually monitor technology and user behaviour.

• Look on this as an opportunity, not a problem

Rewards include increased innovation, happier employees, maybe

cost savings & you'll be a more attractive employer

Building a Mobile Capability Demands Mixed Sourcing and New Partners

Strategy & Design

Implementation & Architecture

Deployment & Operations

UX design and psychology

Artistic design

Process re-engineering

Design & programming

B2E mobile strategy

Mobile testing including tools and services

Consumer services (e.g., mapping, context, marketing, m-payment ...)

Hosting-applications, Web adaptation, cloud services

Application stores

Analytics and metrics

Telecom services

Messaging & notification

Specialist implementation services (e.g., UX review)

Typically internal

Typically external

Typically mixed internal/external API management

B2C mobile strategy

Marketing & advertising partners

What Will a Mobile Strategy Cost?

$10K to $100K $100K to $1 million $1 million upward

B2E/B2C simple native app, single platform, skunkworks project, $10K

B2E SaaS tools, $50 per user / month, unlimited applications and platforms

High end B2E tool e.g., mobilizing multiple SAP modules, 3,500 users, $3M to $5M p.a.

High end media-rich B2C application, five platforms, $300K set up, $25K per month hosting for 100K users

High-end B2C mobile Web adapter, $200K set up, $7K per month hosting

B2C, sophisticated applications, multiple platforms, high-end tool plus outsourced services, substantial ongoing enhancement >$1 million p.a.

B2E, 300 users, enterprise tool, $430K p.a. license fees plus application development cost

Five Steps to Building a Road Map

Assemble Mobile Application Strategy Team

Assemble Mobile Application Strategy Team

Your Action Plan

Monday Morning:

- Identify new ways to provide, manage, and secure mobile devices and applications to deal with the challenges of BYOD and BYOA.

- Define comprehensive mobile strategies covering B2C, B2B and B2E domains, and refresh them regularly.

Next 90 Days:

- Select a small but sufficient portfolio of mobile development tools to address current platform and application needs.

- Define a broad sourcing strategy to exploit new services and partners who can create the best mobile applications

Next 12 Months:

- Find innovation opportunities exploiting both employee and customer facing mobility.

Recommended Gartner Research: Strategy

CIOs' Next-Generation Mobile Strategy Checklist (G00233616)

Fit Mobility Into a Multichannel and Multiplatform Strategy (G00239468)

Essential Steps to Take When Implementing a Mobile Application Strategy (G00237527)

Toolkit: Writing a Mobile Strategy Document (G00206288)

Recommended Gartner Research: Technology

Magic Quadrant for Mobile Application Development Platforms (G00230529)

Technology Overview of Mobile Application Containers for Enterprise Data Management and Security (G00247134)

MarketScope for Enterprise File Synchronization and Sharing (G00226376)

Magic Quadrant for Mobile Device Management Software (G00230508)

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. © 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

David Willis

The Mobile Scenario: Understanding Mobile Trends Through 2017