the melting arctic and implications for transport...

The Melting Arctic

and Implications for

Transport Infrastructure

July 2016

Marjorie McGuirk

Asheville, North Carolina USA

CASE Consultants International

Thirteenth International Seminar on Climate Systems and Climate Change (ISCS), 11-22 July 2016,

Chengdu, China, Beijing Climate Center.

1. Global warming is melting the Arctic

ice caps & opening passages for shipping.

2. Transport drives the patterns of human

settlement and trade routes shape the

course of history.

3. New settlements will grow in the Arctic

along with new trade routes & transport

infrastructure.

The Melting Arctic

and Implications for

Transport Infrastructure

Sources:

McGuirk, Marjorie. "The Melting Arctic and Implications for Transport Infrastructure." Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-

Economic Research. Atlanta, GA: American Meteorological Society Annual Conference, 5 February 2014. Presentation.

McGuirk, Marjorie.“The Melting Arctic and New Trade Routes.” MLA thesis. University of North Carolina Asheville, 2013.

__ “The Melting Arctic Ice Cap and Emerging New Trade Routes will Shift Population at Centers Involved in the Shipment of

Goods." University of North Carolina Asheville, 22 November 2013. Presentation.

.

1. Global warming

is melting the Arctic ice cap

In September 2012, the ice cap was 50% smaller than the average over the last three decades

1. Global warming


In September 2012, the ice cap was 50% smaller than

the average over the last three decades

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaKqhRTqSlgStroeve, Julienne. "The Arctic's Rapidly Shrinking Sea Ice Cover: A Research Synthesis." Climatic Change 110 (2011): 1005.

Overland, James E. and Muyin Wang. “When Will the Summer Arctic be Nearly Sea Ice Free?” Geophysical Research Letters 40 (2013): 1-5

National Snow and Ice Data Center

1. Global warming


National Snow and Ice Data Center

1. Global warming


1. Global warming


Monthly September ice extent for 1979 to 2015 shows a decline of 13.4% per decade relative to the

1981 to 2010 average. In September 2012, the ice cap was 50% smaller than the average over the

last three decades. Source: NSIDC National Snow and Ice Data Center NOAA

2009200419991994198919841979

Year

Exte

nt

Areal Extent of Arctic Ocean Ice Cover

21

11.0

10.5

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.5

8.0

Early/Late

Exte

nt

Boxplot of Extent

Source: Left NSIDC. Right Author. Left: minimum sea ice coverage yearly. Right: sea ice averages in early years (1979-1996)

compared to more recent years (1997-2010).

1. Global warming


http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/Data: NOAA, National Snow and Ice Data Center ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Sep/N_09_area.txt


and passages are opening for shipping.

Khon, V. C., and I. I. Mokhov. "Arctic Climate Changes and Possible Conditions of Arctic Navigation in the 21st

Century." Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 46.1 (2008): 14-20. Print.

Northern Sea Route Obs

North West Passage Obs

SRESA1B

SRESA1B



http://www.arctic-lio.com/nsr_transits

Northern Sea Route Administration

Ship traffic picks up

as sea ice concentration drops down

during a yearly cycle





National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration

NOAA

Age of Arctic sea ice from 1990 to March 2016 –

weekly time lapse images

Sources: Data; Mark Tschudi, University of Colorado-Boulder., Video; “Old Ice in Arctic Vanishingly Rare” NOAA Climate.gov

Perovich, D., W. Meier, M. Tschudi, S. Farrell, S. Gerland, and S. Hendricks. (2015). Chapter 4: Sea Ice. In Jeffries, M.O., Richter-

Menge, J., Overland, J.E. (2015) Arctic Report Card: Update for 2015

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers.

Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/old-ice-arctic-

vanishingly-rare



Why is this important?

2. Transport drives

the patterns of human settlement

time lapse US frontier

http://www.outragegis.com/animati

ons/population-growth.htm

time lapse US frontier

2. Transport drives

the patterns of human settlement

2. Transport drives the pattern and

trade routes shape the course of history

US EU CHINA



2. Trade routes

shape the course of history



SIX GENERATIONS

2. Trade routes

shape the course of history

Sources: Left Suez Canal Authority shows number and type of ships sailing through the Suez Canal in September 2012. Right: graph shows

for the Northern Sea Route the mount of cargo in 1,000 dead weight tons passing through route per year in red, and the number of navigation

days in blue. Derived from Drent, Jan. Commercial Shipping on the Northern Sea Route ." The Northern Mariner 3.1 (1993): 1-17.

Suez Canal http://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/TRstatHistory.aspx?reportId=4

Northern Sea Route Administration http://www.arctic-lio.com/nsr_transits

Drent, Jan, Commercial Shipping on the

Northern Sea Route, The Northern

Mariner/Le Marin du nord, III, No. 2

(April 1993), 1-17

Change on the Horizon

Photo credit: Port of Los Angeles

http://listosaur.com/miscellaneous/top-10-busiest-ports-in-the-united-states.html

“The opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 and the invention of containers

in 1956 transformed this once sleepy port into one of the world’s busiest

ports”


Climate plus multiple factors

US Trade with China less than

Russia and Europe Trade with China

Reliability matters more than distance?

Shipping Lines

• «Shipping rates are low, the bunker fuel is cheap and there is a general decline in world economy and a

shrinking demand in China», Sergey Balmasov from the Northern Sea Route Information Office.

• “The Chinese general cargo carrier «Yong Sheng . . . accounted for more than 75 percent of the 2015

NSR cargo.” Source: Atle Staalesen, Independent Barents Observer 15 February 2016.

Data Source: Northern Sea Route Information Office

http://www.arctic-lio.com/nsr_transits

• In 2015 no ice breaker assistance for 14 of 18 voyages

• The Yong Sheng transited between Shainghai and Varberg, Sweden carrying a windmill tower and blades

� NSR Administration - Ship traffic picks up as sea ice concentration drops down during a yearly cycle



Comparing NWP Suez costArctic Shipping Routes - Cost Comparisons with Suez

ARCTIS Database (Arctic Resources and Transportation Information System)

http://www.arctis-search.com/Arctic+Shipping+Routes+-

+Cost+Comparisons+with+Suez&structure=Arctic+Sea+Routes#The_Passages_in_Comparison

Arctic Shipping Routes - Cost

Comparisons with Suez

(by Tor Wergeland)

3. New settlements

will grow in the Arctic

3. New settlements


Drent, Jan. Commercial Shipping on the Northern Sea Route ." The Northern Mariner 3.1 (1993): 1-17.

3. New settlements


Dudinka, navigable year round, excluding Spring ice breaks,

stevedoring companies, nickel, metal, oil

Source: http://www.arctic-lio.com/dudinka c

Tiksi, navigable July-October, serves Arctic communities, containers, timber,

construction. Source: http://www.arctic-lio.com/tiksi

3. New settlements


Murmansk, ice free year round, 200 stevedoring companies , Arctic destination

containers, metals, fertilizers, oil , passengers, gantry cranes

Source: http://www.arctic-lio.com/murmansk

Pevek is located on the shore of the East Siberian Sea in Chaunskaya Bay.

The port works only during the period of summer navigation (July-October).

Handles coal, container freights, industrial equipment, ferrous metals, and

timber freights. Main port of NSR.

Source: http://www.arctic-lio.com/pevek

Source: Nordregio www.nordregio.se

Designer/Cartographer Johanna Roto

Data source National Statistics Institutions

Published 28 July 2011

High tech sites envisioned

But population

has declined in

Russia

Source: The Arctic Human Development Report II: Regional Processes and Global Linkages Fact Sheet, Arctic Council, Sustainable

Development Working Group (SDWG), Lead Authors:Lee Huskey(US),IlmoMaaenpaa(FI),Alexander Pelyasov (RU), 8th Ministerial

Meeting, Kiruna, Sweden, 15 May 2013.

• “… the Arctic economy grew over 31% 2000- 2009, faster than

the rate of growth for the Arctic nations (2.1%)”

• development projects proposed for Greenland, Nunavut, Finland,

Russian and Alaskan arctic seas • http://thebarentsobserver.com/2016/04/eu-opens-new-arctic-infrastructure

• Warming gives access by sea - lowers cost delivery of supplies

and of shipment of the resources to markets

3. New settlements


Source: The Arctic Human Development Report II: Regional Processes and Global Linkages Fact Sheet, Arctic Council, Sustainable

Development Working Group (SDWG), Lead Authors:Lee Huskey(US),IlmoMaaenpaa(FI),Alexander Pelyasov (RU), 8th Ministerial

Meeting, Kiruna, Sweden, 15 May 2013.

• But Not Yet• “High-cost harsh environment –

• resources far from markets in sparsely settled land

• harsh winters requires special designs

• poor soil condition requires additional site preparations

• long supply lines requiring large inventories of parts

• limited transport access

• higher wages and salaries to recruit personnel”

• Multiple ship rotations necessary to realize benefits

3. New settlements


Thank you

1. Global warming is melting the Arctic ice cap

and passages are opening for shipping transport trade routes

2. Transport drives the patterns of human settlement

and trade routes shape the course of history

3 New settlements will grow in the Arctic along with new

trade routes & transport infrastructure.

[email protected]

CASEConsultantsInternational.com

Asheville, North Carolina

Questions?

The Melting Arctic and New Trade Routes

Citation:

McGuirk, Marjorie. "The Melting Arctic and Implications for Transport Infrastructure." Thirteenth International Seminar on Climate Systems

and Climate Change (ISCS), 11-22 July 2016, Chengdu, China, Beijing Climate Center.

the melting arctic and implications for transport...

Documents